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ETFDesk Daily 11/20/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today's market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more...

Pimco’s Gross Champions Utilities
Dave Rosenberg 11/19/2009
How US investors can play the carry trade
Treasury Bill Demand Seen Pushing 3-Month Yield Negative
Roubini: 10 Reasons The Recovery Will Be U-Shaped
Meredith Whitney Says Bank Stocks Are ‘Grossly’ Overvalued
As Gold Value Soars, Some Cash in Fillings
China is running the risk of new bubble, Bill Gross warns
Commodities to Get Record $60 Billion, Barclays Says
Treasury Yield Plunge Sends Warning
Japan’s Government Declares Economy Is in Deflation
Global Central Bank Focus
Investment Outlook Bill Gross | December 2009

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 03:22 AM PST

Pimco’s Bill Gross issued his December investment missive this morning and the verdict is: Buy utilities.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR-Utilities; buy iShares DJ US Utilities;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/19/2009

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 03:35 AM PST

If there is a non-economic risk, it comes down to the U.S. dollar, and Nouriel Roubini is probably onto something in the sense that it has become a huge ‘carry trade’ vehicle for all risky assets. Historically, there is no correlation at all between the DXY index (the U.S. dollar index) and the S&P 500. In the past eight months, that correlation is 90%.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Oil Fund; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

How US investors can play the carry trade

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 03:40 AM PST

Finally there’s a pair of funds which specifically seek to replicate the carry trade — the PowerShares G10 Currency Harvest fund (DBV), and the iPath Optimized Currency Carry fund (ICI). Both of them use futures to capture the full local-currency returns: they’re true carry-trade plays.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Treasury Bill Demand Seen Pushing 3-Month Yield Negative

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 04:24 AM PST

NEW YORK -- Demand for the three-month Treasury bill is ramping up as investors seeking protection toward end of the year stock up on the safest securities. At a time when Treasury bills are in short supply, the situation is driving the bond equivalent yield on the three-month T-bill down. Strategists said its yield is likely to fall into negative territory before the end of the year. When market participants buy Treasury bills at negative rates, they're essentially paying the

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell iShares Russell 2000; buy SPDR Lehman 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Roubini: 10 Reasons The Recovery Will Be U-Shaped

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 07:37 AM PST

A V-shape recovery might be visible in Q3 private consumption rates, which grew a healthy 3.4%, in line with consumption rates before the crisis. But this was just a head-fake, according to Roubini, thanks to cash-for-clunker type programs and home buyer tax credits. He thinks consumption will now slow, growing at just 1.8% in 2010.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; buy UltraShort Real Estate ProShares; buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell iShares DJ US Real Estate;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Meredith Whitney Says Bank Stocks Are ‘Grossly’ Overvalued

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 08:24 AM PST

“The banks are still grossly overvalued,” Whitney said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “People are expecting something great to happen in 2010 and I think they are going to be severely disappointed.”

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

As Gold Value Soars, Some Cash in Fillings

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 11:27 AM PST

With the price of gold through the roof, some people in the northeast Missouri town of Hannibal are literally putting their money where their mouth is. This has to be the top

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

China is running the risk of new bubble, Bill Gross warns

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 11:13 PM PST

China is running the risk of its own bubble by betting on renewed demand from US consumers that is unlikely to appear.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio; sell SPDR S&P China ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Commodities to Get Record $60 Billion, Barclays Says

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 11:23 PM PST

Commodities will likely attract a record $60 billion this year as investors seek to diversify their assets

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Treasury Yield Plunge Sends Warning

Posted: 20 Nov 2009 12:07 AM PST

Collapse in note yields suggests economic distress will keep Fed on hold well into 2010 or beyond.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund; sell S&P 500 SPDR;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Japan’s Government Declares Economy Is in Deflation

Posted: 20 Nov 2009 12:14 AM PST

Sustained price declines threaten to squeeze corporate profits and wages, smothering demand...

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-Japan; sell Rydex Japanese Yen Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Global Central Bank Focus

Posted: 20 Nov 2009 12:14 AM PST

The Uncomfortable Dance Between V’ers and U’ers

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Investment Outlook Bill Gross | December 2009

Posted: 20 Nov 2009 12:51 AM PST

The Fed is trying to reflate the U.S. economy. The process of reflation involves lowering short-term rates to such a painful level that investors are forced or enticed to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks. Once your cash has recapitalized and revitalized corporate America and homeowners, well, then the Fed will start to be concerned about inflation – not until.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR-Utilities; buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Tags: IDU, XLU, GSG, SPY, UUP, DBO, BIL, IWM, DIA, SDS, SRS, XRT, XLF, GLD, GXC, PGJ, TLT, UDN, FXY, EWJ, CEW, Pimco, Bill Gross, Central Banks, Japan, Deflation, Inflation, Treasury, Yield Curve, Commodities, China, Gold, Meredith Whitney, Banks, Roubini, Rosenberg, Recovery, Bonds, Stocks, carry trade, dollar, fx, yen, utilities

Nov 20 01:28 pm | Link | Comment!

ETFDesk Daily 11/19/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today's market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more...

How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?
Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap
John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'
Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!
The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update
The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update
The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer
A yuan-sided argument
Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers
Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets
Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch
VIX of the VIX
The World’s Largest Shopping Mall
BofA Merrill cuts '10 global semiconductor growth view
Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt
Roach: China's Market Will Crumble
Warning to Closed-End Fund Director--Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference
Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise
Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 02:55 AM PST

great chart from The Big Picture blog

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST

Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market. With central banks likely to be net gold purchasers in H2 2009 for the first time since 1988 the same starting gun is ringing out today. The price at which the USD would be fully backed by gold (as it was during the peak of the 70s mania) is $6,300. So there is a case for gold being “cheap.” Moreover, the 70s bull market was facilitated by tight energy markets, overly accommodative central banks and nerv

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:35 AM PST

John Paulson, who scored about $20 billion of profits for his hedge fund between 2007 and early 2009 wagering against the housing market and financial companies, is launching a fund dedicated to buying up shares of gold miners and other bullion-related investments, according to three investors.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:35 AM PST

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; sell iShares MSCI-EAFE; buy UBS E Tracs CMCI Food Tr; buy iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar Total Return Sub Index; buy iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund; buyPIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:12 AM PST

Classic title

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:25 AM PST

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Asia Pacific Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:26 AM PST

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Greater China Fund, Inc.;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:31 AM PST

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Taiwan Greater China Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

A yuan-sided argument

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:59 AM PST

China allowed the yuan to rise by 21% against the dollar in the three years to July 2008, but since then it has more or less kept the rate fixed. As a result, the yuan’s trade-weighted value has been dragged down this year by the sickly dollar, while many other currencies have soared. Since March the Brazilian real and the South Korean won have gained 42% and 36% respectively against the yuan, seriously eroding those countries’ competitiveness.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST

Some retailers are finding ways to profit even in the face of declining sales. On Tuesday, luxury retailer Saks Inc. reported a surprise profit and Target Corp. notched its first rise in year-over-year net income in eight quarters. But both companies reported declines in sales at stores open for a year, and predicted more of the same in the current quarter, which includes Christmas.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 01:14 PM PST

With the Fed in a holding pattern, markets have looked to economic data for their biggest moves in the last six months and that trend is likely to continue, Goldman Sachs economists said. “With the unemployment rate high, we expect the markets to continue to focus on employment data for indications of labor market improvement,” Goldman economists wrote in a research note.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell iShares Russell 2000; buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:17 PM PST

Investors are piling into any commodity they can get their hands on as the dollar crumbles and real assets spike.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/Clear Global Timber Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

VIX of the VIX

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:32 PM PST

The volatility of the CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) in recent days is especially noteworthy as the measure of implied volatility in the S & P 500 Index (SPX) is once again bouncing near year-to-date lows.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The World’s Largest Shopping Mall

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:37 PM PST

A cautionary tale of capitalist hubris. An amazing video from PBS.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

BofA Merrill cuts '10 global semiconductor growth view

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:50 PM PST

BofA Merrill Lynch lowered its 2010 growth forecast for global semiconductor industry and downgraded ten chipmakers, including Intel Corp (INTC.O), turning more cautious on the group on expectations of a modest overshoot in global supply chain inventories.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF; sell iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor Index;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:15 AM PST

San Francisco-based Wells Fargo agreed to buy back all auction rate securities it sold through its brokerage unit before Feb. 13, 2008, the association said in a statement. The bank also will pay a $1.9 million fine and reimburse investors who sold their holdings at a discount after the market collapsed.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Roach: China's Market Will Crumble

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:42 AM PST

Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach still believes in the long-term China story, but he warns investors to wait for a much-needed market correction first.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF; sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETF; buy UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director--Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:53 AM PST

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director--Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:00 AM PST

That’s why I recommend you spread your risk and go with a well-diversified, closed-end fund that invests in hundreds of Senior Secured Floating Rate bonds at once. Such an approach ensures the impact of any bankruptcy is minimal. It also provides daily liquidity.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income II;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:03 AM PST

Brazil moved overnight to close a loophole that had allowed investors to avoid a 2 per cent tax on foreign investment in equities and bonds announced last month.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Tags: QQQQ, SPY, SDS, DIA, GLD, GDX, FUD, EFA, EEM, GS, GCH, TFC, CYB, RTL, RTH, XRT, TENZ, IWM, XLF, CUT, VXX, FXI, IGW, XSD, FXP, HAO, JEQ, FCT, BZF, Brazil, Altman Group, ETF, CEF, currency, China, Taiwan, yuan, fx, dollars, John Paulson, Nasdaq, S P 500, Dow Jones, Stocks, bonds, rally, Albert Edwards, Socgen, Gold, Commodity, jobs, employment, retail, consumer spending, Goldman Sachs, labor, unemployment, FED, treasury, Treasuri

Nov 19 07:07 pm | Link | Comment!

ETFDesk Daily 11/18/2009

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Today's market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more...

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance
Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped
Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009
Gold - the next bubble?
Goldman Sachs: "V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely"
TF Oct Monthly Update
Altman Group hosted CEF conference
Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A "Tsunami Unfolding"
The Great Wallop : Chimerica
Explorers' Self-Deflating Gas Cushion
Hands warns governments on banks
Africa: Corruption Perception - Nigeria's Rating Worsens
Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains
It's Quiet…Too Quiet
U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts
the Geography of the Recession
Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction
The Case for the Chinese Yuan

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 02:06 AM PST

Great Info from the Council on Foreign Relations

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR S&P China ETF;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:01 AM PST

This data appears to be at odds with the inflationary environment gold, commodities and equities have been giving off. Perhaps more important in this data is the fact that it shows investors are simply moving out of dollars and into real assets – not as a sign of inflation worries loom, but as investors lose faith in the longevity of the United States and the paper we print our money on.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell PowerShares DB Oil Fund; buyUltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:42 AM PST

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher suggested yesterday that the Q3 real GDP print will be taken down from 3.5% at an annual rate to 2.5% ? despite massive government stimulus. (Is that all you get for your money?) And the Philadelphia Fed survey of professional forecasters shows that this collection of 41 economists just took down their 2010 Q1 GDP call to 2.3% from 2.5% and for next year?s Q2 to 2.4% from 2.8%.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell S&P 500 SPDR;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gold - the next bubble?

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:42 AM PST

WHAT are the preconditions for a bubble? Perhaps there are four: easy credit conditions, a significant trend-breaking event, the lack of plausible valuation measures and an appealing story.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Sachs: "V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely"

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:55 AM PST

Despite the sharp pickup in real GDP growth since the dark days of early 2009, we estimate that real final demand—net of the boost from fiscal policy—is still contracting at an annual rate of around 1% in the second half of 2009. Although we expect a moderate recovery of around 2% by the second half of 2010, such a 3-percentage-point improvement would be insufficient to offset the loss of 4-5 percentage points of stimulus from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. Hence, real G

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sellS&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

TF Oct Monthly Update

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:10 AM PST

The Thai Capital Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Thai Capital Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Explorers' Self-Deflating Gas Cushion

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 01:42 PM PST

With producers still collectively pursuing growth, the chances of a rebound in gas prices next year looks more remote than ever. Yet the S&P Supercomposite oil and gas E&P index—weighted 69% to gas production—commands a forward price/earnings multiple of 22 times. Such confidence is the very thing causing the industry to drill its way into trouble.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund; sell United States Natural Gas Fund, LP;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Hands warns governments on banks

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 10:58 PM PST

Guy Hands, head of private equity house Terra Firma, warned on Wednesday that unless governments pushed banks to restructure $7,000bn of leveraged loans that are due to mature by 2014, the US and Europe could face the “Japanese problem” of zero growth.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell ING Prime Rate Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Africa: Corruption Perception - Nigeria's Rating Worsens

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:08 PM PST

Nigeria dropped nine places to 130th position out of the 180 countries ranked on the global Corruption Perceptions Index Nigera allocation is 17% of AFK

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:11 PM PST

Bing search engine continues to make incremental gains in search share, with new numbers bringing Bing's share closer to double digits. SWH - 21% MSFT

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Software HOLDRS;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

It's Quiet…Too Quiet

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:21 PM PST

In that vein, Pat Neal, Jefferies' stock and derivatives strategist, is telling clients to use the lull in the VIX to hedge stock portfolios. He sees a hidden disconnect between quiescent VIX and its component stocks that could spell trouble for stocks.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:33 PM PST

Almost 70 percent of consumers surveyed said they wanted to see discounts of at least 50 percent before they would buy something for the holidays, according to the survey by America's Research Group.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

the Geography of the Recession

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:40 PM PST

very interesting map of unemployment

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:16 AM PST

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius said stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to rise by 30 to 40 percent within three to four years as higher economic growth and lower government debt spurs corporate earnings.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; buy iShares MSCI-Brazil; buy iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; buy SPDR S&P BRIC 40 ETF; buy Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust; buy iPath MSCI India Index ETN; buyiShares MSCI BRIC Index Fund; buy Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, Inc;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Case for the Chinese Yuan

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:38 AM PST

Investors may look back at the liquidity crisis of 2008 as the inflection point that affirmed China as a global economic superpower. During this time, the majority of emerging market currencies suffered as investors fled higher-risk currencies. However, the Chinese yuan largely tracked the safe haven flight to the U.S. dollar, and investments providing exposure to movement in the yuan generated a positive return and exhibited low volatility during the most volatile market environ

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Tags: UNG, FCG, PPR, MSFT, SWH, VXX, XRT, AFK, GXC, GLD, SDS, DBO, DBA, SPY, DIA, UUP, GS, TF, DBC, Energy, Natural Gas, Chimerica, Oil, Real Estate, Altman Group, Retail, Consumers, China, Economics, Gold, Commodity, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Treasuries, Stocks, Bonds, Dave Rosenberg, GDP, growth, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, Vix

Nov 18 10:11 pm | Link | Comment!

ETFDesk Daily 11/18/2009

Sign up for Daily email and feed at etfdesk.com

Today's market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more...

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance
Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped
Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009
Gold - the next bubble?
Goldman Sachs: "V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely"
TF Oct Monthly Update
Altman Group hosted CEF conference
Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A "Tsunami Unfolding"
The Great Wallop : Chimerica
Explorers' Self-Deflating Gas Cushion
Hands warns governments on banks
Africa: Corruption Perception - Nigeria's Rating Worsens
Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains
It's Quiet…Too Quiet
U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts
the Geography of the Recession
Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction
The Case for the Chinese Yuan

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 02:06 AM PST

Great Info from the Council on Foreign Relations

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR S&P China ETF;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:01 AM PST

This data appears to be at odds with the inflationary environment gold, commodities and equities have been giving off. Perhaps more important in this data is the fact that it shows investors are simply moving out of dollars and into real assets – not as a sign of inflation worries loom, but as investors lose faith in the longevity of the United States and the paper we print our money on.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell PowerShares DB Oil Fund; buyUltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:42 AM PST

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher suggested yesterday that the Q3 real GDP print will be taken down from 3.5% at an annual rate to 2.5% ? despite massive government stimulus. (Is that all you get for your money?) And the Philadelphia Fed survey of professional forecasters shows that this collection of 41 economists just took down their 2010 Q1 GDP call to 2.3% from 2.5% and for next year?s Q2 to 2.4% from 2.8%.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell S&P 500 SPDR;

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Gold - the next bubble?

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:42 AM PST

WHAT are the preconditions for a bubble? Perhaps there are four: easy credit conditions, a significant trend-breaking event, the lack of plausible valuation measures and an appealing story.

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Goldman Sachs: "V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely"

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:55 AM PST

Despite the sharp pickup in real GDP growth since the dark days of early 2009, we estimate that real final demand—net of the boost from fiscal policy—is still contracting at an annual rate of around 1% in the second half of 2009. Although we expect a moderate recovery of around 2% by the second half of 2010, such a 3-percentage-point improvement would be insufficient to offset the loss of 4-5 percentage points of stimulus from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. Hence, real G

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TF Oct Monthly Update

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:10 AM PST

The Thai Capital Fund October Monthly Update

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Explorers' Self-Deflating Gas Cushion

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 01:42 PM PST

With producers still collectively pursuing growth, the chances of a rebound in gas prices next year looks more remote than ever. Yet the S&P Supercomposite oil and gas E&P index—weighted 69% to gas production—commands a forward price/earnings multiple of 22 times. Such confidence is the very thing causing the industry to drill its way into trouble.

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Hands warns governments on banks

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 10:58 PM PST

Guy Hands, head of private equity house Terra Firma, warned on Wednesday that unless governments pushed banks to restructure $7,000bn of leveraged loans that are due to mature by 2014, the US and Europe could face the “Japanese problem” of zero growth.

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Africa: Corruption Perception - Nigeria's Rating Worsens

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:08 PM PST

Nigeria dropped nine places to 130th position out of the 180 countries ranked on the global Corruption Perceptions Index Nigera allocation is 17% of AFK

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF;

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Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:11 PM PST

Bing search engine continues to make incremental gains in search share, with new numbers bringing Bing's share closer to double digits. SWH - 21% MSFT

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Software HOLDRS;

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It's Quiet…Too Quiet

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:21 PM PST

In that vein, Pat Neal, Jefferies' stock and derivatives strategist, is telling clients to use the lull in the VIX to hedge stock portfolios. He sees a hidden disconnect between quiescent VIX and its component stocks that could spell trouble for stocks.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN;

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U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:33 PM PST

Almost 70 percent of consumers surveyed said they wanted to see discounts of at least 50 percent before they would buy something for the holidays, according to the survey by America's Research Group.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF;

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the Geography of the Recession

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:40 PM PST

very interesting map of unemployment

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Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:16 AM PST

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius said stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to rise by 30 to 40 percent within three to four years as higher economic growth and lower government debt spurs corporate earnings.

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The Case for the Chinese Yuan

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:38 AM PST

Investors may look back at the liquidity crisis of 2008 as the inflection point that affirmed China as a global economic superpower. During this time, the majority of emerging market currencies suffered as investors fled higher-risk currencies. However, the Chinese yuan largely tracked the safe haven flight to the U.S. dollar, and investments providing exposure to movement in the yuan generated a positive return and exhibited low volatility during the most volatile market environ

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

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Tags: UNG, FCG, PPR, MSFT, SWH, VXX, XRT, AFK, GXC, GLD, SDS, DBO, DBA, SPY, DIA, UUP, GS, TF, DBC, Energy, Natural Gas, Chimerica, Oil, Real Estate, Altman Group, Retail, Consumers, China, Economics, Gold, Commodity, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Treasuries, Stocks, Bonds, Dave Rosenberg, GDP, growth, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, Vix

Nov 18 10:07 pm | Link | Comment!

ETFDesk Daily 11/17/2009

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Dave Rosenberg 11/16/2009
The Debt Economy
6 REASONS RICHARD RUSSELL WANTS TO OWN GOLD
Devon Raises the 'Big' Question
SGF October Monthly Update
MEREDITH WHITNEY IS NOW CALLING FOR A DOUBLE DIP
The not-so-small small bank CRE problem
China Rejects View PBOC Shifted on Yuan, Morgan Stanley Says
Drug Makers Raise Prices in Face of Health Care Reform
Can ETCs replicate the carry trade?
Arbitrage-free merger arbitrage
U.S. Wholesale Prices Show Few Inflation Pressures
Funds eye poor performer wheat in hunt for laggards
High-flying currency hits Eurozone companies
Tanker Sector Should Float Your Boat

Dave Rosenberg 11/16/2009

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 02:45 AM PST

Market Musing and data Deciphering

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The Debt Economy

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 03:06 AM PST

Interesting read....

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6 REASONS RICHARD RUSSELL WANTS TO OWN GOLD

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 03:13 AM PST

more reasons to buy gold

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Devon Raises the 'Big' Question

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 04:14 AM PST

Devon, with a market capitalization of about $30 billion, is big, if no major. But its move echoes that of larger competitor ConocoPhillips, which has similarly embraced a "shrink to grow" strategy after years of acquisitions.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index Fund;

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SGF October Monthly Update

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 04:37 AM PST

SGF October Monthly Update

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MEREDITH WHITNEY IS NOW CALLING FOR A DOUBLE DIP

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 07:46 AM PST

Great interview here from the prescient Meredith Whitney. She is now expecting a double dip recession and has turned bearish again on the banks:

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial; sell iShares DJ US Financial Sector; buy Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares;

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The not-so-small small bank CRE problem

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 08:42 AM PST

Moreover, unlike for residential real estate, the best assets have been securitized in CMBS, and banks tend to hold in their loan portfolio the riskiest assets.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell KBW Regional Banking ETF;

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China Rejects View PBOC Shifted on Yuan, Morgan Stanley Says

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 11:36 PM PST

“I consider this...effort by Chinese authorities to dismiss the renewed speculation of renminbi appreciation in the near term,” Wang Qing, chief Asia economist for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, wrote in a note to clients today.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

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Drug Makers Raise Prices in Face of Health Care Reform

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 12:02 AM PST

In the last year, the industry has raised the wholesale prices of brand-name prescription drugs by about 9 percent, according to industry analysts. That will add more than $10 billion to the nation’s drug bill, which is on track to exceed $300 billion this year.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Pharmaceutical HOLDRS;

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Can ETCs replicate the carry trade?

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 12:08 AM PST

“The benefit of a currency ETC is that it provides exposure to local interest rates. It’s safer than putting money in a foreign bank account,” Mr Bienkowski said.

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Arbitrage-free merger arbitrage

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 12:21 AM PST

I think most of the IndexIQ ETFs are silly, but they nailed this one. Merger Arb ETF to hit the market, Convertible arb next?

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U.S. Wholesale Prices Show Few Inflation Pressures

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 12:27 AM PST

A Labor Department report on Tuesday said that higher food and energy costs contributed to a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent rise in the producer price index, which measures the cost of goods to companies. That fell short of the 0.5 percent jump forecast by economists.

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Funds eye poor performer wheat in hunt for laggards

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 12:56 AM PST

Prices have been weighed down by growing stocks following a record global harvest in 2008 and the second-largest harvest in history this year, but there are signs that the tide may finally be beginning to turn. RJA - 20% Wheat

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High-flying currency hits Eurozone companies

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 12:57 AM PST

The strength of the euro is hitting the profits and sales of companies in the eurozone sharply, in spite of the emerging economic recovery in the region.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-EMU; sell iShares MSCI-EAFE;

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Tanker Sector Should Float Your Boat

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 01:02 AM PST

FBR Capital Markets WE ARE UPGRADING OUR tanker industry outlook to Overweight based on our expectations for marked improvement in the supply/demand balance in 2010.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/Delta Global Shipping Index ETF;

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Tags: QQQQ, SPY, DIA, DGP, GLD, DGL, IAU, IEO, SGF, FAX, IYF, XLF, KRE, CYB, PPH, TIPZ, TIP, RJA, EFA, EZU, SEA, Shipping, Baltic Dry Index, Tanker, FBR, Eurozone, Euro, Europe, Commodity, Wheat, Wholesale, Inflation, Stocks, Bonds, Mergers, Dave Rosenberg, Gold, TIPs, ETF, CEF, ETC, Healthcare, China, Morgan Stanley

Nov 17 10:53 pm | Link | Comment!

ETFDesk Daily 11/16/2009

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China accuses US of fuelling ‘huge carry trade’
What Do Bond Traders Think They Know
The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses
Governments tug hard on growth levers
October Retail Sales Beat Expectations, But All Growth Was Just Autos

China accuses US of fuelling ‘huge carry trade’

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 04:28 AM PST

The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.

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What Do Bond Traders Think They Know

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 09:09 AM PST

It’d be interesting to know what the people buying these bonds think is going to happen. Not inflation, based on these yields.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust; buy iShares Lehman 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fund; sell iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund; sell PIMCO Broad U.S. TIPS Index Fund; sell PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Fund;

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The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 12:22 PM PST

Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.

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Governments tug hard on growth levers

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 11:59 PM PST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - If the global recession is over, consumers must have missed the memo.

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October Retail Sales Beat Expectations, But All Growth Was Just Autos

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 12:13 AM PST

Advance October retail sales grew faster than expected, at 1.4% month over month, but all the growth disappears if you strip away auto related sales.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF;

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