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Evariste Lefeuvre

 
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  • A Primer On Potential Growth And Neutral Rates [View article]
    NO. I just plot FFunds rates with Long term yields and it makes senses (term structure of interest rates)
    Before I have a chart with debt to gdp ratio. I just stress that more debt drove GDP growth higher for a while.
    There is no link in this piece between long term interest rates and debt.
    thanks for the reference
    May 23 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Primer On Potential Growth And Neutral Rates [View article]
    I agree with you Salmo but once again this is not the topic of my paper
    Best
    May 23 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Primer On Potential Growth And Neutral Rates [View article]
    Thanks Salmo. Did you read the article ?
    May 22 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Lower Participation Rate Inflationary? [View article]
    thanks GGGL. i am also interested in the Employment ratio, in particular when it comes to gauge the potential for GDP/capita in an aging society...
    May 7 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The European Central Bank Go For QE? [View article]
    To spur growth not really as net exports are positively correlated with the effective exchange rate but
    1. It can lead to some imported inflation
    2. It helps the adjustment process in alleviating pressure on the manufacturing sector
    Mar 29 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Dollar Should Be Higher [View article]
    if you believe in risk on / risk off yes. If not, as I do given the low concentration of asset class returns, I would stay long USD
    Mar 19 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices Rise To 4-Month High, But Will The Bull Run Continue? [View article]
    thanks for the post. Below my bearish view on the topic.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    E
    Feb 19 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The VIX So Low? [View article]
    Thanks Convoluted
    Feb 11 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GBP: The Party Is Over? [View article]
    Thanks Martinius, will work on it...
    Jan 17 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAPE CODE: Why Shiller's Model Could Prove Wrong [View article]
    duckhunting88, same result if your start in 1980...
    Dec 4 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations Send A Positive Signal For Stocks [View article]
    Thanks. You forgot one very important factor/ the huge fall in the relative price of investment goods, through IT and computers notably.
    Oct 24 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Crisis: Why 2013 Could Be Worse Than 2011 [View article]
    yes... (un)fortunately... thks
    Oct 8 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shutdown 2013: Quantifying Political Risk [View article]
    Hroll. That would be true but if 2011 is a guide long UST would be even better all things being equals.

    Given that the risk of default is higher, in my view, than in 2011 (do we have anything to be used as a sequester) and given that -something i should have put in my paper - if there is an agreement, the Fed will likely start mentioning tapering again, your recommendation might be wiser. Thanks for the comment.
    Oct 4 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Message From GOFO [View article]
    In a sense yes, this is one of the issue with gofo and lease rate: you know that there is a problem but the debate on the real causes is blurred by the lack of genuine data.
    Aug 23 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Emerging Market Risk [View article]
    yes Eric, sorry for my english on that one.
    Aug 20 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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