Consumer Confidence And The S&P 500: The Missing Link [View article]
Robert The second chart cleans up your doubts as 3M changes for both data are I(o). If you expand the sample back to 1997 you have a very poor R2. I bet you guessed that the third chart was kind of an easy provocation....
Commodity Prices Continue To Be A Key Issue [View article]
Commodity prices are a relative price, that's it. Relative prices changes are not inflation but just the reflexion of changes in relative demand and scarcity
Gold, USD And Rates: Lost In Transitivity [View article]
Dear RHD, thaks for your message. raulnj48 is right, I meant dRivers. What I mean was that the traditional drivers (growth, deficits...) are pointing to much higher real yields. You may of course expect the FED to expand its balance sheet for several years to come. That's not my view. in addition, as you may read in my next post, when (and if) long rates fall down to the 0% limit, then gold prices will depend not on inflation levels, but on inflation acceleration. the link between real rates and gold is due to the cap on yield put by central banks as there is no possibility to combine lower rates and higher inflation expectations (of figures) without the help of central banks.
Using The Gold/Oil Ratio Instead Of VIX [View article]
My data are drawn from Bloomberg but I guess that some well chosen ETFs should track it properly. Oil is Brent here as WTI prices are skewed by idiosyncratic (supply/tramsportation glut) factors. E
High Yield Bond Market Sets New Records [View article]
Buy In May And Stay To Trade? [View article]
Will Seasonality Kill Stock Momentum? [View article]
Will Seasonality Kill Stock Momentum? [View article]
Euro And Gold: The Great Disconnect? [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Consumer Confidence And The S&P 500: The Missing Link [View article]
The second chart cleans up your doubts as 3M changes for both data are I(o). If you expand the sample back to 1997 you have a very poor R2.
I bet you guessed that the third chart was kind of an easy provocation....
Commodity Prices Continue To Be A Key Issue [View article]
Understanding The Relationship Between Gold Prices And Real Interest Rates [View instapost]
Gold, USD And Rates: Lost In Transitivity [View article]
Gold, USD And Rates: Lost In Transitivity [View article]
What I mean was that the traditional drivers (growth, deficits...) are pointing to much higher real yields.
You may of course expect the FED to expand its balance sheet for several years to come. That's not my view. in addition, as you may read in my next post, when (and if) long rates fall down to the 0% limit, then gold prices will depend not on inflation levels, but on inflation acceleration. the link between real rates and gold is due to the cap on yield put by central banks as there is no possibility to combine lower rates and higher inflation expectations (of figures) without the help of central banks.
Carney: Commonwealth Is Still Alive [View article]
Using The Gold/Oil Ratio Instead Of VIX [View article]
Oil is Brent here as WTI prices are skewed by idiosyncratic (supply/tramsportation glut) factors.
E
Copper: No Longer A China Story? [View article]
Fed Has Economic, Political Cover To Launch Bullish QE3 [View article]
The EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads Will Not Tighten Further [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...