Everyday Finance

Swine Flu Stocks - Just Wait Until Fall

Just to address a few points,

"The estimates I've seen range up to 350 MILLION dead worldwide."
There is no scientific basis whatsoever for such an estimate. At this point, it is simply not virulent. The mortality rates are very low. What is alarming is the fact that the cases continue through the summer and the deaths are not the normal young/elderly. This is abnormal and a concern and leads to - uncertainty - in what will happen in the fall. But what scientific justification is there for such an outrageous number?

"London Companies training to operate with half current staff, the Church of England stopping Communal activities, France and the UK have already ordered vaccines for Half their respective populations"
These same activities occurred for SARS, Bird Flu, etc. and neither of those resulted in mass casualties. This is common disaster prep. Any company that doesn't have a risk mitigation plan like this post-9/11 just hasn't done their homework. The US was about to vaccinate the entire population for smallpox based on no credible threat.

By ordering vaccines for the swine flu, is that really any different than governments having available vaccines for the common seasonal flu each year? This is common.

"I have read the the Minister of Health of England expects, by the end of next month, 100,000 new cases PER DAY!"
I read this too. He made no predictions on mortality. 40% of the population ends up with a mild case of the flu over a span of 2 years, sure, there will be missed workdays and perhaps an elevated death rate from seasonal flu, but it doesn't necessarily translate into massive profits for the full swine flu index.

"Check with your Physician, you will be surprised at how much is known by the Medical Community here but was suppressed by the Media."

The words "media" and "suppressed" are oxymorons. The media cannot and will not keep a secret. They have no incentive to do so and they routinely put US national security at risk in order to break a story (remember telling the terrorists we were wiretapping them and recording their cell phone conversations?). If anything, hyping a phenomena results in eyeballs glued to the TV - Fear - ratings.
Do you use a physician who's making this claim? I don't think that is credible. With the internet and incentive to incite fear, I don't believe there is an international conspriracy amongst news outlets to act counter to their own self-interest.

Let me just close by saying the following:
I make no claims or predictions as to how virulent or contagious this strain will be in the coming years. I don't know. And given the wild range of estimates from people in no position to do so, the only certainty is that most of them will be wrong (I just hope they're wrong in a favorable direction for humanity). I just don't think we'll know until it mutates further and more time elapses. If someone is making an outrageous prediction that deviates from what the WHO, NIH, FDA, and what other relatively informed/scientifically sound institutions are making, I'd question their credibility and stake in the outcome.