Everyday Finance

Swine Flu Stocks - Just Wait Until Fall

I'm willing to admit that this situation is so complex that I cannot predict what is going to happen. Perhaps others like yourself should admit the same. Have you read "The Black Swan"? It's a great book on why people should NOT make forecasts and predictions on things that cannot be modeled accurately. The "experts" are virtually always wrong.

I also did not state that "nothing" will happen until the fall. I stated that we will not KNOW for a few months just how bad this is.

On your returns - 40% gain in 2 weeks, 10% loss in one day...what readers here are going to be impacted by is what happens moving forward, which was the intent of the article - that they should not blindly assume continued triple digit gains in the face of the uncertainty this strain presents. However, if they want to place a speculative bet on a horrendous flu outcome and rally in shares, I listed out a low cash outlay/high return option (no pun intended).