Seeking Alpha

EXPstocktrader's  Instablog

Send Message
EXP is a graduate from The University of Wall Street and serves as the CEO / Chief Stock Strategist at research firm. With over 30 years of trading the market, EXP is an experienced investor using a fundamental and technical approach as a market analyst, chartist, visual... More
My company:
My blog:
View EXPstocktrader's Instablogs on:
  • A Clear Example Of "Buying The Fear" On Wall Street With Questcor Pharmaceuticals

    Often times on Wall Street companies get raided by short sellers (those who profit when they sell a stock high and buy in when that stock falls). This may have been the case with Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) last month around mid-September 2012. Questcor appeared to be doing well moving from $35 to $55 throughout the trading year in 2012 until some fear mongering and questions scared several investors to abandon this stock and fast. There are more details about this if you read my article published when the stock was at the $19 - $20 level. Some of you may have acted on the drop and picked up some cheap shares?

    See the chart collapse and rounded bottom reversal as tensions subsided:

    Looking At The Chart Above:
    In reviewing the chart above, we see the collapse, capitulation to $17 then the STO and MACD cross up to the upside which shows us at least some kind of reversal (maybe short covering) taking place? As you can see, on September 19, 201 QCOR stock fell from $50 to a low of approximately $22, then fell to the $17 range within days as news of Acthar Gel sales and medical reimbursement controversy plagued this company. However, now at least for the short term, it seems as though the dust has settled a little.

    As of this week the stock has recovered nicely from the September bear raid. We now can see that following two weeks from the drop to the $17 level when investors capitulated, the stock has rebounded up 47% from that low counting this week's move to $26. I personally had purchased about 3,000 shares on the severe drop and was recently stopped out to protect my gains.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in QCOR over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Additional disclosure: I was recently stopped out on my QCOR long position for a very nice gain.

    Tags: MNK, long-ideas
    Oct 18 10:24 AM | Link | Comment!
  • FDA Accepts New Drug Application On AP Pharma's Resubmission For Lead Product APF530

    There are several types of cancer drugs on the market today and unfortunately for the patients taking chemotherapy, nausea and vomiting are some of the serious side effects of a cancer therapy regiment.

    Nausea is a very unpleasant feeling that may lead to vomiting for many treatment patients. Vomiting is throwing up the contents of the stomach through the mouth, and retching is the movement of the stomach and esophagus without vomiting causing dry heaves. As cancer research develops new drugs, so do the products used with the prescriptions that are suppose to make patients get better. So, although treatments have improved over time, nausea and vomiting are still serious side effects of cancer treatments found in the market today. Doctors will tell you that some patients are bothered more by nausea than by vomiting.

    A nausea and vomiting product is currently in the works from AP Pharma (APPA.OB) in Redwood City, California (formerly known as Advanced Polymer Systems) who today announced that they received FDA acceptance on their recently announced "resubmission" filing on September 28, 2012 for its New Drug Application (NDA) lead product candidate called APF530, to be used for the prevention of acute and delayed onset chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting or CINV.

    Investor Significance:

    Investors have been patiently waiting for the next step with AP Pharma to move forward with this NDA, and today it was reported by the company that the resubmission was accepted. This is good news in a series of hurdles that the company must overcome in the following several months.

    Stock Ownership:
    We always like to see who the major stock holders are in any company. It is reported that the insiders own approximately 61% of the stock, and 12% of the float is held by some very strong institutions as well. This shows very good confidence.

    FDA Acceptance:
    Now that we have the FDA letter of acceptance of the resubmission, the company has established a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) "goal date" within the next 60 days or so. After speaking to the company, the company anticipates a six-month review by FDA which would result in a PDUFA date and an FDA decision on approval in late March 2013 or early April 2013. Usually, after the FDA acceptance letter announcement, biotech stocks can experience a "run up" into the PDUFA date, whereby some investors may look to take profits and others who may have a greater risk tolerance tend to stay until a drug gets "full FDA Approval."

    Aloxi (palonosetron) is the only other 5-HT3 receptor blocker on the market. A 5-HT3 receptor blocker works by blocking the action of serotonin in certain parts of the brain and nervous system, which helps reduce or prevent nausea and vomiting. It is currently used to prevent nausea and vomiting caused by cancer chemotherapy, as well as, being frequently used to prevent nausea and vomiting after surgery. Critics say that the longer the patient is on this particular drug, the less effective it is for CINV vs. the claims that APF530 may actually work better the longer the patient uses this product. So, there is a lot of interest in getting APF530 approved by the FDA as another product to at least offer patients an alternative choice if Aloxi isn't successfully working for them.

    Stock Analysis:
    As with any biotech that gets FDA acceptance into a PDUFA date, we might expect that APPA will run up on this news it gets more attention in the media. Clearly, with the announcement today, more risk has been taken out of this stock. The last time the company went into a PDUFA date with the APF530 the stock went to $2.00. Given an FDA approval in 2013 this could very well be a $4.00 - $5.00 stock, so please stay tuned here as the company works on getting their product approved and to market.

    OK, so why is AP Pharma's lead product so important?

    During chemo therapy, it is very important to prevent and control nausea and vomiting in patients with cancer so that they can continue on the path to their treatment and perform activities of daily life with few interruptions.

    Uncontrolled nausea and vomiting can cause the following side effects:

    • Malnutrition from loss of appetite
    • Chemical changes in the body
    • Dehydration
    • Mental changes
    • A torn esophagus
    • Some broken bones
    • Reopening of surgical wounds

    There are four types of nausea and vomiting that are caused by cancer therapy:

    • Anticipatory
    • Acute
    • Delayed
    • Chronic

    Anticipatory nausea and vomiting:
    If a patient has had nausea and vomiting after the previous three or four chemotherapy treatments, he or she may have anticipatory nausea and vomiting.

    Acute nausea and vomiting:
    This usually happen within 24 hours after beginning chemotherapy

    Delayed nausea and vomiting:
    This occurs more than 24 hours after chemotherapy. Also called late nausea and vomiting.

    Chronic nausea and vomiting:
    Occurs in patients with advanced cancer, chronic nausea and vomiting may be caused by the following:

    • Brain tumors or pressure on the brain.
    • Colon tumors
    • Dehydration
    • High or low levels of certain substances found in the blood
    • Medicines
    • Radiation therapy
    • Stomach ulcers

    Summary: I really like the AP Pharma story, the strong management team involved, the prospect of their lead product APF530, the large insider and institutional ownership, and of course the unmet need for another effective product to help patients with CINV. I am currently long this stock prior to today's announcement, and into the PDUFA date and will make a determination in the future as to the risk/reward benefits of holding all of my position into final approval. It might be prudent to sell some shares going into final approval depending on the price rise which is undetermined at this time. Please be aware that biotech stocks are very risky and volatile. Each investor should make their own risk tolerance determination with the help of their financial advisor. I may also buy shares on any dips in the coming months if it makes sense?

    Disclosure: I am long APPA.OB. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: HRTX, long-ideas
    Oct 16 10:56 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Vringo Officially Files A Lawsuit Against China Telecom ZTE

    This morning, Vringo (NASDAQ:VRNG) has officially filed a lawsuit against China's second largest telecom company relating to its Nokia (NYSE:NOK) patents that they recently acquired in August , 2012. ZTE describes itself as "a leading global provider of telecommunications equipment and network solutions," with recently reported annual revenue of US $13.7 billion, according to filings with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to ZTE's public filings, the company generates its revenue primarily from the sale of telecommunications equipment and handsets.

    "The filing of this action in the United Kingdom is an initial step in Vringo's global licensing and enforcement program in the telecommunications sector. ZTE has elected not to take a license to patents in Vringo's portfolio relevant to certain international standards, despite manufacturing and selling devices and equipment for a number of years that are said by ZTE to be compliant with those standards," said David L. Cohen, Head of Licensing, Litigation, and Intellectual Property at Vringo. "We believe that ZTE is aware that it requires licenses to all patents that are essential to relevant standards. Further, we believe that ZTE is familiar with systems for declaring patents to standards-setting organizations and the relevant intellectual property rights policies for those organizations, having itself declared hundreds of patents to international standards."

    VRNG stock is currently up about 16% and the biggest percentage leader on the news and could be a real strong catalyst since the company now has two very serious patent litigation lawsuits pending at this time. The prior lawsuit is pending with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and as stated in a prior article, settlement talks have been ordered by the judge. This will occur this week.

    Recap Of The Nokia Patent Acquisition:
    On August 9, 2012, the company reached an agreement with Nokia to purchase patents and patent applications covering a variety of cellular infrastructure technologies. Per the terms of the purchase agreement, Vringo paid $22 million up-front for the patent portfolio and will also pay Nokia a percentage of future licensing proceeds associated with the portfolio. Vringo will retain 100% of the
    revenue generated from licensing these patents up until it recovers the
    initial $22 million. Thereafter, the company will pay Nokia a royalty of 35%
    on licensing proceeds generated.

    This patent portfolio transaction highlights a very interesting relationship
    between Vringo and Nokia. In 2011 the two companies partnered to launch
    Facetones on certain Nokia devices. Nokia also sponsored Vringo's first
    Reality TV app that same year. In 2012, they began developing a customized
    Facetones product for Nokia's Asha phone family. Perhaps the most
    significant connection between the two companies is David L. Cohen, who
    currently serves as Head of Litigation & Licensing for Vringo. Prior to joining
    the company, Mr. Cohen was Senior Litigation Counsel for Nokia, a role he
    held for nearly five years. At Nokia, Mr. Cohen had many responsibilities
    including overseeing the high profile patent dispute with Apple. That
    multi-jurisdictional litigation began in October 2009 when Nokia sued Apple
    for patent infringement. In June 2011 the companies settled the dispute with
    Apple agreeing to pay Nokia a one-time payment as well as ongoing
    royalties relating to future sales of Apple's iPhones. The details of the
    settlement agreement were never made public, but the deal was widely
    considered to be a major win for Nokia and Mr. Cohen's legal team.

    More About ZTE In China:
    ZTE Corporation is a leading global provider of telecommunications equipment and network solutions. Through its network of operators across 140 countries, the company delivers innovative products and business solutions. It connects global customers via voice, data, multimedia and WLAN. Founded in 1985, ZTE is listed on both the Hong Kong and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and is China's largest listed telecoms equipment company.

    Disclosure: I am long VRNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: GOOG, NOK, VRNG
    Oct 08 10:47 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • It's been a very busy past several months. New professional contacts and members. Growing. Happy. Winning. Visit website.
    Jan 16, 2015
  • Crowd Sourcing the Smart Money, not following retail. Winning.
    Jan 15, 2015
  • I cover many stocks. Preferably before the crowd. Notes are emailed to my members; Drs, CEOs, Money Managers, Investors.
    Jan 15, 2015
More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.