Seeking Alpha

Fabrice Kigin

View as an RSS Feed
View Fabrice Kigin's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Balance Sheet Wars: U.S. Solar Companies vs. Chinese Government [View article]
    Solar panels - Some of China's large photovoltaic (PV) module makers have had to extend delivery time to six weeks due to booming orders from Europe, but others have lowered quotes from US$2/watt to US$1.8/watt to clear inventories because of worse-than-expected exports - Digitimes
    Aug 31 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Short Ideas: PF Chang's, Palm, LDK Solar [View article]
    I thought that the highest the short interest was, the more contrarian you should be...LDK, would not short it...the easy trade Long integrated short wafer poly makers is probably one of the worst strategy you could have right now in the solar space...Analysts ' poly input by the end of the year is 35$...basically cash cost on solar grade...NOBODY will sell poly at that price by year end...
    Aug 11 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AgFeed: Major Selloff Creates an Opportunity to Buy [View article]
    sure...what is the ticker? by the way, the correlation is almost perfect, not that it is in relation with the fundamentals but it is what the market is looking.

    On Nov 26 12:18 PM jimidean wrote:

    > USA Lean Hog future prices are meangingless to FEED fundamentals.
    > The trend in Live Hog prices in China is what is important to FEED.
    Nov 26 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings [View article]
    not even talking about oil or whatever...I would not go short solar names THE day where spanish subsidies are supposed to be voted. WATCH OUT 17h30 Spanish time. Anything above 300MW for the cap and you will have a rally on SPWR, YGE, STP...good luck
    Sep 3 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trouble with Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
    Cashman...who owns most of the government bonds in the US...let me guess...Chinese and...Japanese. One more point: ESLR is a lagger in terms of technology and the company is loosing money...why would you buy this name?
    Aug 28 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30 [View article]
    interesting point about refiners but more link to the crack spread than the driving season. So far for refiners, i have check on bloomberg, business a bit down but nothing extravagant.
    Aug 15 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30 [View article]
    worth a comment...with Oil at $30, I am not sure that any President would push alternative energy but more importantly...oil demand slowing? wrong...again look at the numbers DOE data: Gasoline inventories are down from 2845k to -6394k since July, 18th...lowest level in a long time. Stop watching the news...Oil is now trading on momentum not level 110$ on crude then $100.
    Aug 15 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names [View article]
    interesting read all this comments. Take FSLR for example, one thing I can tell is who is talking about mass production? no one...why? because as soon as the production will ramp up, they will find that thin film faces the same material shortage as PV...Tellurium and Cadmium. Good luck with FSLR after market.
    Jul 30 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names [View article]
    Jul 30 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names [View article]
    Spanish update on bloomberg everywhere...if you don't have bloom:
    "Spanish Proposal Update: The Spanish national energy commission (CNE) today announced that the there would be no cap to installations in Q408, although the new 33c/kWh tariffs would be applicable. The CNE proposed that the new cap of 300MW would be effective from January 2009 (250MW for ground-mounted and 50MW for roof-mounted versus earlier proposal of 200MW roof-top and 100MW ground-mounted). CNE's response and preliminary checks with contacts today suggests that there could be some room for further negotiation and the 300MW cap may not be a done deal. The CNE proposal would be sent to the government this week (last week before the summer holidays). "
    Jul 30 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names [View article]
    not sure I am following you. Subprime exposure to chinese names? you should drop technicals and start studying fundamentals. Could you please be more specific on this info. Stocks rallied with the Spanish proposal update. Truth is, few investors really understand this sector correctly, YGE for example will be exposed to Spain at less than 10% in 2009. You should also have a look at the supply and demand for PV that are currently used by major Analysts (GS, Citi...): Luxembourg and China have the same demand by 2012...(?!!!). Technicals were great last month. Time to come back on fundamentals now. How can you talk Subprime exposure for Chinese solar names...amazing...
    Jul 30 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agriculture: Are There Still Bulls in the Supermarket? [View article]
    actually. POT's guidance for the full year is 12-13 USD. Comments from the CEO:``I don't see any downturn in our business,'' Doyle, 58, said today on a conference call. ``We see a lot of pricing momentum in our business. We don't see a peak.''

    This is one of the best management I ever met. I think the recent pullback creates an opportunity to buy back again ferts and commodities. Inflation is far from being over around the globe. And although gasoline inventories are starting to show a build up, Crude inventories suggest that the "Peak Oil" theory is still alive.

    Very Good Article.
    Jul 25 03:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar: Spain Subsidy-Slashing Rumors Send Stocks Lower [View article]
    Thanks for the market highlight. YGE and a lot of Chinese ADR have a limited exposure to spain (YGE 13% of the revenues). Watch ESLR results after the market.
    Jul 17 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verasun Energy: Expect Future Growth and Profitability [View article]
    Very Good Article. However, there are few points missing. 1) The trouble with Ethanol first generation in the US is that there profitability is directly linked to Corn (also down from its highest level, is still above 6.5USD a bushel). VSE had to shut down a brand new plant recently because of this low profitability and this will probably hang over earnings for the quarter. 2) Sugar Ethanol from Brazil. I am working closely with people involved in Ethanol trading (physical) and the best trade recently was to ship the brazilian Ethanol in the US despite the 0.54c per gallon tax. Brazil has a fantastic track record with ethanol and is now building up capacity (much cheaper than in the states) to be sold in the US in the years to come. So the 500mg you mentionned is more 3bng now (nearly 25% of the first generation cap). 3) From the beginning, it is obvious that the first generation ethanol is an ecological disaster and I was personnally not surprised to see Bush pushing for that solution in the US...More importantly, politicians are now realising their mistake and voted the 2007 EISA Mandates on Cellulosic Ethanol. This mandate will cap first generation until 2022 and will benefit Cellulosic Biofuel (like VRNM). The only smart way for the VSE guys now is to buy or develop cellulosic ethanol...
    Jul 10 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternative Energy for Investors: High Volatility, Great Promise [View article]
    Alternative Energy and Subsidies / Most of the subsidies do not fall into the companies's pockets but help new technologies to emerge and deal with the peak oil. It is absolutely wrong to say that without subsidies Alternative Energy is not profitable. As an example, Wind Power (onshore) is now less expensive than conventional electricity (EUR60/MWh vs EUR70/Mwh in Europe). In the US the PTC provides 1.5c/kWh credit for Wind, Solar Geothermal and closed loop bionergy facilities) but the US market is miles away from countries like Germany in terms of "Green Electricity" generation. Summary: Subsidies are good and help driving the market, companies are profitable...look at the numbers and do not listen your buddy at the bar.
    Jul 7 04:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment