Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Factoids  

View Factoids' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Midstream MLP Stats 2-27-15 [View instapost]
    From the little information I have, both HMLP and KNOP may turn out to be high CAGR marine transport MLPs with high yields -- and that is a great combination. But I lack the DCF projections from enough sources to include them in my coverage universe.
    For example - I have enough sources of DCF projections for the E&Ps . . . . that the spreads in those projections tell me that any given projection is not "one you can believe in". And if you can not believe in the DCFs, then you can't believe in the CAGRs.
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio For Dummies - The Technology Components [View article]
    SDS - thanks for the suggestion.
    Mar 2, 2015. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio For Dummies - The Technology Components [View article]
    A fresh 'year to date' spreadsheet along with fresh P/E ratio spreadsheet was posted in my Seeking Alpha insta-blog. Technology had a very slow week. On the other hand, there were several minor dips in the prices of some of the industrial stocks.
    Mar 2, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio For Dummies - The Technology Components [View article]
    Bob Wells wrote "How often do you harvest? I believe the who, what, when, where, why and how of harvesting to be an important subject not often discussed."

    I have harvested gains when my weighting in a given stock becomes too high and the "yield + CAGR - RRR" numbers indicate that the stock in a sell. Examples of harvests I did in 2014. I sold approx 25% of TRGP at $140. TRGP ended the year at $106.17 -- so this harvest appears to be brilliant. But I did not sell TRGP because I thought it was over priced -- I sold due to my weighting in TRGP -- combined with a desire to get my weighting in MLPs a bit lower. So this may be an example that good things happen when you pay attention to you weightings.
    I sold two thirds of my PG when I dropped my CAGR projection for PG to the point that the "yield + CAGR - RRR" number was unattractive. I had always had a high weighting in PG. But the numbers I gather strongly tell me to pay close attention to the dividend/EPS ratio. And that ratio for PG is becoming a bit ugly. I kept a 1% weighting in PG due to its great history. But I saw no reason for it to maintain a 3% weighting due to its numbers.

    In summation - every decision is a "portfolio decision" - and every decision is a "yield + CAGR - RRR decision". Mr Wells, I hope that feedback provided the information you requested. Thanks for your question.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio For Dummies - The Technology Components [View article]
    I have already submitted an edit to this article - I have dropped 2009 data in the "Long term metric trends & third party growth projections" so that the data in the right most column should now appear. If that correction works - I will then drop data in my historical P/E ratio spreadsheet so that the data in the right most column appears.
    For those wanting to view the full and wide version of this spreadsheet - it is posted on the MLP board (my home message board - where I am an advocate of diversification in a place where many are extremely over weight in one sector) at Investor Village.
    Feb 25, 2015. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Technology CAGR Numbers 2-11-15 [View instapost]
    Thanks for the feedback. "PI CAGR and Yahoo" is the last column of the spreadsheet - so all the data is being viewed.
    Feb 23, 2015. 08:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Stock To Build A Retirement Portfolio Upon At Any Age [View article]
    I get my stats from Yahoo Finance - which uses adjusted EPS that weeds out one time gains and losses.
    2010 EPS = $4.11
    2011 EPS = $3.95
    2012 EPS = $3.85
    2013 EPS = $4.05
    2014 EPS = $4.09
    2015 EPS = $4.02 (consensus projection)

    There is no growth in those numbers! PG has a track record that warrants some patience from those who are existing shareholders. But the EPS numbers scare me. The growing payout ratio scares me. There is a strong correlation between payout ratios and dividend growth. PG had a great dividend growth history when its payout ratio was below 50%. Now that the payout ratio is higher -- it is a different animal. I sold two-thirds of my PG in 2014. I am not going to encourage you to sell until my existing one third is sold (grin) -- but given the current stats, I would not be suggesting this is a great place for new money.

    Feb 12, 2015. 01:29 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 2: Money Making Lessons From The 2014 Data For Midstream MLP Investing [View article]
    Scoots wrote " I wonder whether you would care to name a few entities which the data in your two articles suggest would be good buys at the present time."

    It is very important, when using a metric based valuation system, to have distribution CAGRs that one can believe in. Due to both the extreme decrease and continued volatility of energy prices, the degree of faith one can have in MLP CAGR projections is near a historical low.

    My current stats (which are based on the market close of 1-30-15) suggest that ENBL and MEP are selling at extremely low valuations. But that is based on DCF and CAGR projections that are in danger of falling after their upcoming conference calls. My lack of confidence in their current projections keeps me from pulling the trigger on those potential buys.

    And when it comes to suggestions . . . .

    Those who have followed my numbers based advice over the long term were well served in 2014 for my suggestion that there are two correct 'allocation decisions' or weightings for E&Ps -- slim and none. And they have done well in the long term if the followed the advice that their portfolios need to be at least 25% in the GPs.

    I still have not separated the 'refinery logistics' MLPs from the midstream MLPs. I may be behind the curve in that. There may be a story that is out there that the refinery logistic MLPs have the existing contracts in place that will cause them to do well in a low price energy environment. That 'theory' would suggest that good MLP investors should have at least a minimum allocation to that sub-sector. Currently, I do not own a single one. That grouping includes DKL, MLPX, PSXP, TLLP, SHLX, VLP and WNRL.

    I am not ready to write that "a good MLP portfolio will have at least a 15% allocation to refinery logistic MLPs" . . . but I may be headed in that direction.
    Feb 7, 2015. 06:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 2: Money Making Lessons From The 2014 Data For Midstream MLP Investing [View article]
    I do not have a positive gut reaction to HIP.
    (1) I know REITs, BDCs and MLPs -- and HIP owns a lot of tickers I have never heard before. I believe CEF HIP owns many shares in many other CEFs. So you end up with two different levels of management fees.
    (2) On the 'e' list members - HIP owns shares in EEP and EXLP without owning any EPD.
    (3) On the 'm' list members - HIP owns shares in MMLP and MEMP without owning any MMP or MPLX.
    (4) On the 's' list members - HIP owns shares in SNH (maybe the worst Health Care REIT) without owning any SEP, SHLX or SXL - or REIT SPG.

    In summation - I do not see the quality names I would look for in MLPs. It lacks many quality REITs (I could not find AVB, BXP or ESS).
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 1: The Lessons In The 2014 Data For Midstream Master Limited Partnership Investing [View article]
    I still track KED as a BDC - even though its portfolio make-up is now dominated by publicly traded equities. KED had 38.72% NAV growth in 2014. (That NAV change in calendar 2014 would not include the Q4-14 data -- that Q4-14 number is reported in calendar 2015 -- and Q4 was the time when MLPs began their price swoon.) BDC share price appreciation correlates very strongly with the change in NAV. That is probably the case with CEFs.
    Feb 6, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 2: Money Making Lessons From The 2014 Data For Midstream MLP Investing [View article]
    Poll question - response 3
    I do not use debt credit ratings in my equity decisions. I do not believe that debt credit ratings are that relevant to equity buying decisions.
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:20 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 2: Money Making Lessons From The 2014 Data For Midstream MLP Investing [View article]
    Poll question - response 2
    I use debt credit ratings in my equity buying decisions - I want a total portfolio that is heavily weighted in equities with investment grade rated debt.
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:18 AM | 46 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 2: Money Making Lessons From The 2014 Data For Midstream MLP Investing [View article]
    Poll question - response 1
    I use debt credit ratings in my equity buying decisions - I will not buy equities without investment grade rated debt.
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:17 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 1: The Lessons In The 2014 Data For Midstream Master Limited Partnership Investing [View article]
    KMI and VTTI report on 1099s - as do most General Partners, such as ENB, ENLC, OKE, PAGP, SE, TRGP, TRP and WMB. If the yield is too low, add some MLPL (the leveraged ETN).
    The tickers for the MLP ETF/ETNs are listed in the above text -- and in most years I believe they have done better than KYN - which I no longer track. But it is hard to criticize KYN's recent performance. KYN has a near 7% yield and LTM dividend growth near 7%. It did cut its dividend in 2009 -- but the cut was only 4% (or from 50 to 48 cents per quarter).
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part 1: The Lessons In The 2014 Data For Midstream Master Limited Partnership Investing [View article]
    Part two of this series was submitted 16 hours ago -- so I anticipate a publishing time early Friday morning. There may be a new 'maximum width' of spreadsheets in 2015. I attempted a solution to the display problem in that article.
    I like having the 'full company name' on one line - and not on multiple lines. So the width of my first cell is very wide. I have changed this in part two and I have some expectation that this will solve the problem. If that solution works - then I will edit part one to include this solution.
    My 'contributor' button is not showing up on the Seeking Alpha navigation bar today. My message icon on that bar is not working. Given that Seeking Alpha is having temporary problems, I am not sure if the display problem with my spreadsheets is a coding problem that I caused -- or if it is a temporary problem caused by SA.
    Feb 5, 2015. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
501 Comments
2,975 Likes