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  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    This is the end of the poll questions. Once again - PLEASE do not respond to the poll questions with a text reply. Signal your agreement with the posted response with a "like".
    Mar 19 08:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    Poll Question 3 - I already knew about earnings projection accuracy.
    Mar 19 08:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    Poll Question 3 - I did not understand why earnings projection accuracy relates to anything.
    Mar 19 08:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    Poll Question 3 - The data on earning projection accuracy is something that I have never seen before. It helped me understand the concept of required rates of return.
    Mar 19 08:57 AM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    Poll Question 2 - The concept of "required rates of return" is one to which I am already familiar.
    Mar 19 08:56 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    Poll Question 2 - The concept of "required rates of return" is still new to me. I would like to see more examples in different sectors before I really buy in to this idea.
    Mar 19 08:56 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    Poll Question 1 - The examples given in the article were sufficient.
    Mar 19 08:55 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest With A Property-Type Bias? [View article]
    Poll Question 1 - I would like to see more comparisons like the "HCN vs. HCP" text.. The few examples give were not enough for me.
    Mar 19 08:55 AM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLP Midstream Stat Update 3-14-14 [View instapost]
    I can see the full table. I see the full table when the cursor is placed over the spreadsheet. The "see full table" text fails to generate a "clickable" event - there is no need for clicking.

    I am aware that Seeking Alpha has some problems with javascript created spreadsheets. For example - the numbers are "right justified" in my document, but that coding results in left justified numbers when presented at Seeking Alpha.

    In the "old code" at Seeking Alpha, the part of the document that was in different font colors - or in bold font - was presented as plain text. The new code is allowing for font colors and bold text. Given the width of my spreadsheets, I believe that I am generating documents that better communicate when color and bold fonts are included.

    I am aware that Seeking Alpha does moderate all postings. When you communicate a problem in the comment section of a document - the message does get through to the people in change.

    So if you have a problem with the display of my data - keep those cards, letters and comments coming in. Seeking Alpha is listening.
    Mar 16 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Dividend Income Growth Do You Need? [View article]
    Arbywon asked " How would you estimate dividend CAGR for SDY or VIG?"

    With SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) - after looking at the dividend history - I wouldn't even try to guess. If I were to give it a CAGR - it would be a negative growth rate. With Vanguard Dividend Apprec Idx ETF (VIG) - I would calculate the growth rate for each of the last three years and used the median of those three numbers. But one would only be using "dividend growth inertia" as an input to your CAGR assessment. For me -- that is not enough inputs to have much confidence in the CAGR number.

    There really is a Catch-22 to mutual fund investing that no-one talks about. On one hand, you get diversification and (if it is not an index fund) professional management - which is what you need if you do not know what you are doing. But on the other hand, you can not judge the decision quality of the management if you lack an opinion on the quality of their current portfolio. So you have to know what you are doing before you can make a wise decision about a fund purchase.

    Let me put the same thought in slightly different words - If you know enough to judge the quality of a mutual fund's portfolio, then you know enough to buy individual stocks. If you know so little that you can not judge the quality of their portfolio, then you know too little to buy the fund.

    So then - why not limit yourself to index funds? Here's why. An index fund is an intentional bet that the large caps in that index are going to be winners. In some sectors - that is an OK bet. But in Health Care - I believe it (a bet on the large caps) is a terrible bet. I've recently shared stats on that sector in my SA InstaBlog. So - even with index funds, you need to do a fair amount of due diligence.

    What's an investor to do? Find a path that best fits your temperament - and live the shortcomings of the plan you choose. Every plan has shortcomings.
    Feb 23 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Care Stat Update 2-20-14 [View instapost]
    I should note that my original plan was to also buy shares in RHHBY. But the ADR (or ADS) for Roche traded on the "pink sheets" - and the brokerage I used did not allow retail investors to buy pink sheet stocks from them.

    Also - I should note that "EPS projection accuracy" is a key component in setting my RRRs (required rates of return) in a sector. I did some "outside of the box" thinking on gathering that data. I am not going to share that in a post inside of my blog - a blog which fails to generate income (note the absence of advertising of this page - and all SA blog pages). I will get around to posting an article on that - once I get over the fear of posting a long article on a sector I still know next to nothing about.

    Last note - I did 10 year dividend income projection spreadsheets on a test portfolio which contained some stocks with dividend yields under 1%. Adding those stocks crashed my dividend yield without adding much div growth. Even with high dividend growth, there is something like "force = mass times acceleration" going on in that calculation. Divs under 1% lacked the "mass" to generate much force in my portfolio dividend growth. So I made a gut decision that sub 1% yielding stocks were "stocks for other people".
    Feb 22 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Dividend Income Growth Do You Need? [View article]
    Jaberstein asked "Does this (the use of portfolios of 10 stocks) suggest that regardless of the dollar value of ones portfolio less is better, or, as the value of your portfolio increases the number of securities should increase also."

    The author wrote "The middle will be long and full with data to juggle on portfolio components. I have cut the number of portfolio components in the sample portfolios to an unrealistically low number of ten. A portfolio of ten components might be OK if individual stocks were only 20% of ones portfolio. But ten is the max that I want to juggle at one time."

    There is no way that I intended the lesson one should take from this article is that a portfolio of ten stocks is OK. While I do have some holdings in stock that compromised more than 3% - the majority of my holdings represent about 1.5% of my portfolio.
    Feb 18 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Dividend Income Growth Do You Need? [View article]
    Woppenhe wrote - "Once retired, dividends themselves, in my way of thinking, will not generally be enough to keep you up with inflation, even dividend growers."

    I see total returns following the "Yield + Dividend CAGR" model over time. I see valuation through the prism of "Yield + Dividend CAGR". Like the boy who just discovered the hammer - he perceives all the world is a being a nail - this investor see the whole investing world as "Yield + Dividend CAGR".

    I have never written that one shot at due diligence is enough. Due diligence is ongoing. CAGRs evolve over time. And some high CAGR stocks have been very good procrastinators at their return to the mean. The earnings to distribution ratio is a component in my CAGR assessment. One can not have a forever rising distribution without a forever rising earning projection. There is a decent early warnings system already in place. It is not full-proof. It will fail. And our due diligence will have lapses. At the same time, our due diligence is not constantly tested on every single asset we own. And we can choose to own assets where growth follows capital investment - and where forward earnings visibility is higher than average. You wrote that "Projecting beyond next year is a risky business, and beyond two years pretty speculative." I believe that such a statement is overly general. I believe that there are sectors where there is higher earnings visibility. I believe that "historical earning projection accuracy" produces a metric that is an accurate omen for the visibility

    Bottom line - with the condition that one is only generating a portfolio with a 4.5% distribution payout - I believe that one can get 4.5% distribution growth from that portfolio. I believe that a well chosen (not a perfectly chosen) portfolio by a moderately due diligent investor (one who is current on their CAGR projections) can have dividend growth that keeps you up with inflation. I am doing it. And in many ways - I am just a country bumpkin. On the other hand, I am a country bumpkin that has atypical data gathering skills - and listen to the numbers until they tell me their secrets.

    Woppenhe wrote - "dividends are not written in stone; they can be cut, as recent experience shows".

    (Note - this specific response is written with a "grin") - Dividend cuts do not happen out of nowhere. Like the coward who dies a thousand deaths while the hero dies just once - I see dividend cuts well in advance of the event. I see dividend cuts that will never happen. I have known dividend cuts. Dividend cuts have been a teacher of mine. And you - woppenhe - are unlikely to teach me anything about the dangers of dividend cuts. But seriously . . . . If a dividend cut catches an investor by surprise - then there has been a long and ongoing failure of their due diligence.

    Woppenhe - after accusing you of being a baby killer (or one who through the baby out with the bath water) - you managed a very civil reply. Thanks for that.
    Feb 18 12:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Dividend Income Growth Do You Need? [View article]
    woppenhe - I think you have thrown the baby out with the bath water.

    I have been investing using the tool of five year forward dividend and distribution projections for about a decade. The CAGR projections have aided my assessments of valuations. I have had superior returns - and superior dividend and distribution growth. There are a large number of fellow investors doing the same - with the same kind of results.

    I fully disclosed that there are big problems using a 5 year CAGR projection as a 20 year projection. I noted that as CAGR projections change, portfolio conponents need to change.

    woppenhe wrote "Over some period of time, a stock's return may be mostly dividends; and over other intervals, it may be largely price appreciation. What really matters is the total return of the portfolio over time, and that information is given on most brokerage statements."

    I noted that I live on the income that "appears" in my bank account from dividend and distributions. And I can predict that. I have no idea what value the market is going to place on my holdings 12, 24 or 60 months from now. If the price has gone up for my income producing stocks, it will largely be due to their income (or dividends and distributions) increasing. I choose to have more certainty - more certainty compared to a plan that depends on "total return" where price appreciation is a component in the calculation.

    In my world - it is dividend security and dividend growth that matters. And there are no forward dividend CAGR projections on my brokerage statements.

    We can argue for days about who is right and who is wrong. The bottom line - your advice does not fit me, my temperament, or my perception of retirement investing. .
    Feb 17 04:15 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Dividend Income Growth Do You Need? [View article]
    OverTheHill - Thanks for catching the BIG set of errors. I have submitted an already granted request for a change in the text. I only wish you had been the first to read the article.
    Feb 17 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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