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Transportation Year To Date Numbers 112114 http://seekingalpha.com/p/22z6z 3 days ago

Retirement Portfolio For Dummies  The Transportation Components http://seekingalpha.com/a/1m1u1 4 days ago

Packaging Update 111414 http://seekingalpha.com/p/22czj Nov 16, 2014
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Transportation Year To Date Numbers 112114
Given the number of spreadsheets in my article on transportation stocks  which can be found at this link  I did not feel the need to post year to date numbers. Here is that data:
Transportation 112114
The Q414 dividend is used for yield calculations. All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years  with the one exception of FDX  which starts in June. The tracking of target price changes began on 60814. Due to Yahoo Finance tracking EPS projections from 90 days ago, EPS tracking began with the projections of March 2014. The last three years average dividend growth is calculated by dividend the total dividend growth from Q411 to Q414 by three.
Dividend dates are:
The Predictive Power of the Dividend/EPS Ratio on Valuations: Dividend to EPS ratios range from as low as the teens to the 60s  and may look all too random. But this ratio  during most time periods  helps explain the variety of yields and P/E ratios. There is some correlation to YTD price changes as well.
The following stocks had Q414 Dividend/EPS ratios of less than 30%: CNI, CNW, CP, FDX, FWRD, GMT, JBHT, KSU, KNX, LSTR and, R. Their YTD mean price gain = 25.24% and 8 of the 11 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [18.01%]. Their mean yield = 1.02% and they had an average price/earnings ratio = 22.71. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 18.98% and they had an average CAGR projection of 10.11.
The following had Q414 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 30%  but less than 40%: CSX, EXPD, NSC and UNP. Their YTD mean price gain = 25.12% and 3 of the 4 beat the sector mean yearly price gain. Their mean yield = 1.69%  and they sold at an average price/earnings ratio = 20.67. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 12.38% and they had an average CAGR projection of 9.63.
The following had Q414 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 40%: CHRW, MATX and UPS. Their YTD mean price gain = 18.05% and 2 of the 3 beat the sector mean yearly price gain. Their mean yield = 2.16%  and they sold at an average price/earnings ratio = 23.25. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 4.77% and they had an average CAGR projection of 6.73.
The Correlations of Rising Price Targets to year to date returns This cynic believes that 'people have to be told to buy stocks  and which ones to buy'. One way this is done is via the changes in their price targets.
The following companies had rising price targets of more than 10% since the beginning of the year : CHRW, CNI, CP, CSX, FDX, KSU, KNX, LSTR, MATX, NSC and UNP. Their mean price gain for the year is 31.27%. Their mean total return for the year is 32.52%  and 10 of the 11 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had rising price targets under 10% since the beginning of the year : CNW, FWRD, GMT, JBHT, R and UPS. Their mean price gain for the year is 25.39%. Their mean total return for the year is 26.67%  and 13 of the 17 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had flat or falling price targets : EXPD. Their mean price gain for the year is 0.59%. Their mean total return for the year is 1.67%  and 0 of the 1 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
Packaging Update 111414
Packaging Portfolio 111414
The Q414 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q413. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q309. WST has announced a 10% increase in its Q414 dividend and RKT a 7% increase. RKT had a two for one stock split on 82814  and that is not yet reflected in the pricing in the data below.
Dividend dates are:
The relationship between CAGR projections and yields: While yields are also strongly risk, the influence of dividend growth projections can also be seen.
The following had CAGR projections equal to or over 10%: ATR, BLL, PKG, RKT and WST. Their current average yield is 1.36%.
The following had CAGR projections under 10% but over 5%: BMS, GEF, IP, MINI, SEE and SLGN. Their current average yield is 2.23%.
The following had CAGR projections equal to or under 5.0%: SON. Their current average yield is 3.15%.
The relationship between credit ratings and yields: While yields are also strongly influenced by dividend growth and dividend coverage, the influence of credit ratings can also be seen.
The following had corporate credit ratings of AA+. AA, or AA: (none). Their current average yield is NaN%.
The following had corporate credit ratings of A+. A, or A: (none). Their current average yield is NaN%.
The following had credit ratings equal to BBB or BBB: BMS, IP, PKG and RKT. Their current average yield is 2.05%.
The following had corporate credit ratings of BB+, BB or BB: BLL, GEF, MINI and SLGN. Their current average yield is 1.84%.
The following had corporate credit ratings of B, B or were note rated: ATR, SEE and WST. Their current average yield is 1.22%.
Price/Earnings Ratios 1114
RKT started fiscal 2015 at the beginning of calendar Q414
Price Changes and Total Returns Since the Beginning of 2012, 2011 and 2010
Dividend History based on Q4 Dividends
The dividends are displayed rounded to a tenth of a the penny. For the last to columns, 'Av Grw Last 2Yrs' is for the average dividend growth over the last two years and 'Av Grw Last 6 Yrs' is average growth over six years. The average is derived by calculating the dividend growth for each year, and dividing by the number of years. This is not a compounded growth rate.
Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations
Disclosure: The author is long PKG, RKT.
Additional disclosure: This is a sector that I have only followed in 2014. I am not an expert here. There could easily be metrics at play to which I am not yet aware. I am attracted to the strong "yield + CAGRs". I have a 1% weighting in the two stocks where I have investments.
BDC Stats 111414  1st Update With (Many) Q314 NAVs
I do not have Q314 NAVs for the 4 BDCs that have yet to report their Q314 numbers.
I should also note that it has been a bad year for the BDCs that entered the year with some growth expectations: HTGC, MAIN and TCAP. I have written about TCAP. HTGC does not have any LTM dividend growth  and its NAV is slighting falling. MAIN has increased the amount of supplemental dividends  which is hurting both NAV growth and future dividend growth.
I was a few weeks late catching that SAR has gone back to paying quarterly dividends. I was also late in catching that HGPC changed to OHAI (thanks to a comment made below). I have edited this update to make those changes
BDCs 111414
Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q414 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII  in the Div/NIIltm column. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2014 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q414 dividend from the Q413 dividend; and the change in NAV between Q314 and Q313. Special dividends are not included in this data. FSC and FULL cut their first quarter dividend. BKCC and MCGC cut their Q214 dividend. MAIN increased its monthly dividend starting in September. Ridesharing smartphone apps like Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar threaten the value of the medallions that are the source of TAXI loans. SAR has gone back to paying quarterly dividends. Its Q115 dividend rises to $0.21/share from $0.18/share. FSC, GBDC and MCC have yet to report their Q314 numbers.
Dates used to credit dividends:
Historical BDC Yield to 10 Year Treasury Spreads for the sector:
BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 1114
Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q413 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate  and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.
Disclosure: The author is long AINV, ARCC, MAIN, PFLT, PNNT.
Additional disclosure: I also own BDC 'baby bonds' HTGY, MCQ and TCC