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Grocery Or Consumer Staples Update 121614 http://seekingalpha.com/p/24cql Dec 17, 2014

Finding CAGRs In The Spreadsheets Of The CCC List http://seekingalpha.com/p/23zj1 Dec 11, 2014

Finding CAGRs At Yahoo http://seekingalpha.com/p/23zdr Dec 11, 2014
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Consumer Staples Sector Update 72415
I hold close to 10% of my investments in this sector. The purpose of these investments: to generate a bit of income at a moderate growth rate in lower due diligence stocks. This has been a year where I really needed the lack of drama in this sector.
If you want to "keep your head when all about you are losing theirs", then have a portfolio that assists in that outcome. Have a good weighting in this sector.
"If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitchandtoss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;"
. . . . then this is not the sector for you. This is a sector where it is highly unlikely that you will need to start your nest egg at its beginnings. And . . .
"If you (need your investments to) fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run"
. . . . then this is not the sector for you. These companies are turtles, not hares. You can see that in the LTM dividend growth. The dividend/EPS ratios also point towards lower dividend growth. Fortunately, the 2016 and 2017 EPS projections indicate a 'high single digit' dividend growth rate is possible. For a 2.58% yield, I want 8% dividend growth. That kind of growth appears probable, and it is just around a distant corner.
Grocery Portfolio 72415The Q315 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q314. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q310. HSY  which shows zero LTM dividend growth  is yet to announce its Q315 dividend.
Historical yields for the sector:
Historical P/E Ratios for the sector:
Price/Earnings Ratios 724
2017 Projection from NASDAQ. ADM & INGR lacked '17 projections. I used 8% growth on '16 projections to generate numbers for them.
The Correlation of EPS Revisions to year to date returns The following companies had growing EPS estimates since the beginning of 2015: CLX. Their mean price gain for the year is 5.9%. Their mean total return for the year is 7.32%  and 1 of the 1 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had decreases  but decreases of less than 5%  to the EPS estimates: CPB, KO, CAG, FLO, KMB, LANC, MKC and SJM. Their mean price gain for the year is 5.01%. Their mean total return for the year is 6.59%  and 5 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had decreases to the EPS estimates of more than 5% since the beginning of 2015: ADM, CL, INGR, HSY, K, PEP and PG. Their mean price gain for the year is 5.93%. Their mean total return for the year is 4.7%  and 1 of the 7 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The Correlations of Rising Price Targets to year to date returns This cynic believes that 'people have to be told to buy stocks  and which ones to buy'. One way this is done is via the changes in their price targets.
The following companies had rising price targets since the beginning of the year: CPB, KO, CAG, CL, INGR, CLX, FLO, GIS, HRL, KMB, LANC, MKC, PEP and SJM. Their mean price gain for the year is 4.1%. Their mean total return for the year is 5.54%  and 9 of the 14 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had flat or falling price targets : ADM, HSY, K and PG. Their mean price gain for the year is 8.92%. Their mean total return for the year is 7.66%  and 0 of the 4 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
Midstream And ETN MLP Stats For 72415
(1) Many MLP investments purchased on margin are probably getting margin calls  and that is causing some forced selling. It is a safe bet that a hedge fund or two has done that. (2) Any MLP investment purchased by someone who does not understand the metrics of MLPs is being sold (or a sale is being contemplated) simply because the prices are down  big. It is a safe bet that most retail MLP investors fall into that grouping. (3) Almost every MLP has a commodity sensitive component in their earnings. MLPs are about to report earnings. It is a safe bet there will be some unpleasant reports. That adds up to a lot of headwinds for the sector. (4) When EBITDAs fall, debt covenants can be triggered. That can cause distribution cuts and/or needed secondary offerings to raise capital. These kind of secondary offerings are dilutive to DCF per unit. So falling earnings can cause further falling earnings per unit. And that is the only 'headwind' that is not being talked about (with the midstreams).
MLP Midstream 72415The consensus DCF (Distributable Cash Flow) projections were last updated on 52815. The CAGR (the distribution Compound Annual Growth Rate) projections were updated 60115. Yields are based on the Q215 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q214  or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. The Dist/DCF number is the ratio of the Q215 distribution to the 2015 DCF projection. The 2015 DCF projection is an adjusted average of eleven DCF projections from the major brokerages covering MLPs. The CAGR is the percentage change in my CAGR projection since the beginning of the year. The target prices and EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance. RGP has merged with ETP and that ticker was deleted.
While divs are displayed to 4 digits right of the decimal, some of the data is stored as 5 digits
Dividends paid to shareholders of record on:
Price Changes Since The Start Of The MLP Bear Market
I needed to run a test to see if small caps fell more in Q414 while large caps 'procrastinated' their fall. It was true. And that finding made some of my advice in the article null and void. In an attempt to make up for briefly leading you astray  here is a spreadsheet with price changes since the beginning of Q4 (or price changes since 93014). This data present a different picture. The 'index' numbers at the bottom of the spreadsheet have not been changed to the 93014 start date. The only change is in the starting prices of the MLPs. The total return number only include two distribution payments.
The consensus DCF (Distributable Cash Flow) projections were last updated on 52815. The CAGR (the distribution Compound Annual Growth Rate) projections were updated 60115. Yields are based on the Q215 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q214  or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. The Dist/DCF number is the ratio of the Q215 distribution to the 2015 DCF projection. The 2015 DCF projection is an adjusted average of eleven DCF projections from the major brokerages covering MLPs. The CAGR is the percentage change in my CAGR projection since the beginning of the year. The target prices and EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance. RGP has merged with ETP and that ticker was deleted.