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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • Grocery Or Consumer Staples Update 12-16-14
    Grocery Portfolio 12-16-14

    The Q4-14 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Div/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q4-13. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q4-09.


      12-31-1212-16DivCurrentDiv/Div/Percent Change
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldEPS14EPS15PricePr+DivEPS14TargetDiv 1yrDiv 5yr

    Archer-Daniels(NYSE:ADM)43.4049.320.2401.9531 %27 %13.6415.85-5.8525.1326.3212.00
    Campbell(NYSE:CPB)43.2842.720.3132.9349 %51 %-1.291.590.801.380.005.00
    Coke(NYSE:KO)41.3140.390.3053.0260 %58 %-2.230.73-8.07-1.628.939.76
    ConAgra(NYSE:CAG)33.7036.550.2502.7446 %44 %8.4611.42-7.26-8.600.005.00
    Colgate(NYSE:CL)65.2167.510.3602.1349 %46 %3.535.74-5.483.395.8812.73
    Ingredion(NYSE:INGR)68.4681.220.4202.0731 %28 %18.6421.09-5.578.5910.5340.00
    Clorox(NYSE:CLX)92.76100.120.7402.9669 %67 %7.9311.13-6.175.534.239.60
    Flowers(NYSE:FLO)21.4718.260.1202.6355 %49 %-14.95-13.27-16.19-5.966.6710.85
    General Mills(NYSE:GIS)49.9151.130.4103.2158 %57 %2.445.73-2.080.517.8914.89
    Hershey(NYSE:HSY)97.2397.940.5352.1953 %48 %0.732.93-2.430.9710.3115.91
    Hormel(NYSE:HRL)45.1750.140.2001.6036 %31 %11.0012.77-1.7620.6517.6522.11
    Kellogg(NYSE:K)61.0764.100.4903.0650 %48 %4.968.17-3.47-3.156.526.13
    Kimberly-Clark(NYSE:KMB)104.46112.400.8402.9959 %55 %7.6010.82-6.236.783.708.00
    Lancaster(NASDAQ:LANC)88.1590.210.4602.0450 %49 %2.343.90-8.2115.854.5512.28
    McCormick(NYSE:MKC)68.9271.880.3702.0644 %41 %4.296.44-2.611.648.8210.83
    Pepsi(NYSE:PEP)82.9492.590.6552.8357 %53 %11.6314.79-2.3410.9015.429.11
    Procter&Gamble(NYSE:PG)81.4189.360.6422.8861 %59 %9.7712.92-1.635.006.649.20
    JM Smucker(NYSE:SJM)103.6298.310.6402.6045 %46 %-5.12-2.65-2.59-6.9510.3416.57

    Average    2.5550 %48 %4.637.23-4.844.458.3212.78

    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 7.16% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 8.62% year to date.
    The KXI [Consumer Staples ETF] is up 2.25% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is up 3.61%.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.05% and the sector average yield on the Q4 dividend at 2.55% - the spread is 50 basis points.
    * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

    Historical yields for the sector:

    Mar 2010: 2.77%June: 2.92%Sept: 2.92%Dec: 2.78%
    Mar 2011: 2.84%June: 2.76%Sept: 2.94%Dec: 2.81%
    Mar 2012: 2.81%June: 2.82%Sept: 2.80%Dec: 2.81%
    Mar 2013: 2.42%June: 2.47%Sept: 2.58%Dec: 2.48%
    Mar 2014: 2.53%June: 2.54%Sept: 2.61%Dec:

    The relationship between CAGR projections and yields: While yields can be influenced by risk, the influence of dividend growth projections can be seen.
    The following had CAGR projections over 8.5%: INGR, FLO, HSY and HRL. Their current average yield is 1.82%.
    The following had CAGR projections under 8.5% but over 6.5%: ADM, MKC and SJM. Their current average yield is 1.85%.
    The following had CAGR projections under 6.5%: CPB, KO, CAG, CLX, GIS, K, LANC, PEP and PG. Their current average yield is 2.56%.

    Price/Earnings Ratios 12-16
    CAG, CLX, GIS, HRL, LANC, PG and SJM are already in fiscal 2015


     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPSCurrnet Fiscal Year EPSYear
    Co.2011201220132014201511-1212-1313-1414-15201320142015HighLowRangeEnd

    ADM3.472.302.333.063.58-33.721.3031.3316.9921.1716.1213.783.102.925.88%Dec
    CPB2.542.442.642.532.46-3.948.20-4.17-2.7716.1816.8917.372.502.423.16%Jul
    KO1.922.012.082.052.094.693.48-1.441.9519.4219.7019.332.122.034.39%Dec
    CAG1.751.842.162.172.255.1417.390.463.6916.9216.8416.242.342.0015.67%May
    CL2.522.682.842.933.146.355.973.177.1723.7723.0421.503.042.846.83%Dec
    INGR4.685.575.055.426.0119.02-9.347.3310.8916.0814.9913.515.655.404.61%Dec
    CLX3.934.104.314.264.454.335.12-1.164.4623.2323.5022.504.504.373.05%Jun
    FLO0.640.690.910.880.987.8131.88-3.3011.3620.0720.7518.630.970.925.68%Dec
    GIS2.482.562.692.822.863.235.084.831.4219.0118.1317.883.022.913.90%May
    HSY2.823.243.724.024.4514.8914.818.0610.7026.3324.3622.014.114.051.49%Dec
    HRL1.741.861.972.232.546.905.9113.2013.9025.4522.4819.742.252.183.14%Oct
    K3.383.613.773.904.056.804.433.453.8517.0016.4415.833.993.843.85%Dec
    KMB4.805.255.775.726.069.389.90-0.875.9419.4819.6518.556.125.952.97%Dec
    LANC3.843.453.983.693.79-10.1615.36-7.292.7122.6724.4523.803.833.800.81%Jun
    MKC2.793.043.133.363.608.962.967.357.1422.9621.3919.973.373.331.19%Nov
    PEP4.404.104.374.604.91-6.826.595.266.7421.1920.1318.864.644.542.17%Dec
    PG3.953.854.054.224.36-2.535.194.203.3222.0621.1820.504.534.285.92%Jun
    SJM4.814.735.375.645.55-1.6613.535.03-1.6018.3117.4317.716.195.944.43%Apr

    Average     8.214.195.9920.6319.8618.76   

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    CompanyQ4-14ConsensusTotalBondsEPSMyTotal RtnConsensusPrice Implied CAGRDivPrice
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsRRR-YldP/E/Earn/Earn

    Archer-DanielsADM1.95%7.50%9.45%A5.0011.00-1.552.19.0510.62%31.3716.12
    CampbellCPB2.93%3.00%5.93%BBB+1.0010.00-4.073.37.076.89%49.4116.89
    CokeKO3.02%4.50%7.52%AA2.008.50-0.982.35.484.70%59.5119.70
    ConAgraCAG2.74%6.00%8.74%BBB-1.3010.50-1.762.87.769.34%46.0816.84
    ColgateCL2.13%6.50%8.63%AA-1.508.500.132.66.378.04%49.1523.04
    IngredionINGR2.07%9.10%11.17%none2.7011.000.172.88.939.49%31.0014.99
    CloroxCLX2.96%3.50%6.46%BBB+1.5010.00-3.543.37.0413.50%69.4823.50
    FlowersFLO2.63%8.50%11.13%none4.0010.500.631.97.879.75%54.5520.75
    General MillsGIS3.21%6.00%9.21%BBB+1.0010.00-0.792.86.798.13%58.1618.13
    HersheyHSY2.19%9.60%11.79%A1.0010.501.292.68.3113.36%53.2324.36
    HormelHRL1.60%9.60%11.20%A1.0010.500.702.38.9011.48%35.8722.48
    KelloggK3.06%5.30%8.36%BBB+1.7010.00-1.643.26.946.44%50.2616.44
    Kimberly-ClarkKMB2.99%6.50%9.49%A1.809.50-0.013.26.517.65%58.7419.65
    LancasterLANC2.04%4.50%6.54%A2.009.50-2.963.07.4612.45%49.8624.45
    McCormickMKC2.06%7.00%9.06%none2.309.50-0.442.97.449.39%44.0521.39
    PepsiPEP2.83%5.20%8.03%A2.209.00-0.972.26.176.63%56.9620.13
    Procter&GamblePG2.88%5.00%7.88%AA-2.008.50-0.622.15.626.18%60.9021.18
    JM SmuckerSJM2.60%7.00%9.60%BBB+2.0010.00-0.402.47.407.43%45.3917.43

    Average 2.55%6.35%8.90%    2.66   19.86

    Disclosure: The author is long CL, HRL, HSY, INGR, GIS, PEP, PG, SJM.

    Dec 17 5:25 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Finding CAGRs In The Spreadsheets Of The CCC List

    If you are a regular Seeking Alpha reader, you have probably read several articles that refer to David Fish's CCC list. For those who know only a little about it - I will quickly tell you a little more.

    The most recent pdf document can be found at - http://dripinvesting.org/Tools/U.S.DividendChampions.pdf

    His profile is at http://seekingalpha.com/author/david-fish?s=david-fish

    The Dividend Champions spreadsheet (and PDF) is updated at the end of each month. It lists "Champions" that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years; "Contenders" that have increased their payouts for 10-24 years; and "Challengers" that have increased their payouts for 5-9 years. The full list contains around 544 names. It's a great resource.

    Each 'C segment' contains a series of spreadsheets. The CAGR is found in the second. I have attempted to 'copy and paste' the data -- and the appearance of the data is so different that the copy is useless.

    Going from left to right, you will find column headers for (1) Company Name; (2) Ticker; (3) Annual Dividend; (4) EPS Payout %; (5)Graham #; (6) TTM PE; (7) FYE month; (8) TTM EPS; (9) PEG Ratio; (10) TTM Price/Sales (11) MRQ Price/Book; (12) TTM ROE; (13) TY % Growth; (14) NY % Growth; (15) Past 5 year Growth; (16) Est 5 year Growth; (17) etc

    I use the "est 5 year growth" number for a dividend CAGR projection. Mr Fish's CAGR number is a projection for earnings growth.

    Dec 11 10:32 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Finding CAGRs At Yahoo

    I am going to presume that everyone knows how to get to the 'summary' page for a stock ticker at Yahoo Finance. The data used in this example is for Ventas (NYSE:VTR). In the left hand column, there is a navigation menu that contains the following elements:

    QuotesChartsNews & InfoCompanyAnalyst CoverageOwnership

    Under "analyst coverage" - choose (or click) the "analyst estimate" option.

    You will then see a series of spreadsheets. The first is for "Earnings Estimates". The second is "Revenue Estimates". The third is "Earnings History". Scroll down to "Growth Estimates". That spreadsheet will contain the following data:

    Growth EstVTRIndustrySectorS&P 500
    Current Qtr.5.70%25.70%-90.10%18.00%
    Next Qtr.5.50%27.60%-91.20%18.00%
    This Year7.00%11.00%8.40%7.80%
    Next Year5.20%5.90%13.30%10.10%
    Past 5 Years (per annum)4.23%N/AN/AN/A
    Next 5 Years (per annum)5.20%11.79%10.81%9.31%
    Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories)16.4915.5417.7020.99
    PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories)3.172.742.062.37
      

    The "Next 5 Years (per annum)" is where you will find the consensus analyst projection for 'earnings metric growth'. The earnings metric that Yahoo uses for Health Care REITs in 'normalized FFO'. There is a very high correlation between normalized FFO growth and dividend growth. The "5.20%" (I have underlined the number and put it in italics to make it easier to find) is what I use for my Yahoo dividend CAGR.

    Let's contrast this with the numbers for MLPs. The earning metric Yahoo uses for MLPs is EPS. The key earnings metric for MLPs is "DCF". There is a correlation between DCF growth and distribution growth for MLPs. There is NOT a correlation between EPS growth and distribution growth. So the Yahoo 5 year CAGR for MLPs is a garbage in - garbage out' calculation.

    Whether the CAGR you find at Yahoo is a good and meaningful number is a "sector by sector" decision. It's bad for MLPs. It is always too high for BDCs. Those are the exceptions. The quality is relatively good in all other sectors. I should add that 'relatively good' can still result in unrealistically volatile numbers.

    I have the impression that David Fish and the CCC List leans on a source for his CAGRs that also causes unrealistic volatility.

    Dec 11 9:39 AM | Link | Comment!
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