Seeking Alpha

Factoids'  Instablog

Factoids
Send Message
I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I lack the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more... More
My blog:
Factoids' Instablog
View Factoids' Instablogs on:
  • MLP "Yield + CAGR" Spreadsheets

    I need to note that I have not updated the consensus analyst rating stats since the end of Q1-14. That would normally cause me to be reluctant to post these spreadsheets because of the stale data. I am posting the anyway - due to the potential interest caused by my most recently published SA article.

    The spreadsheet that follows uses "yield + CAGR - RRR" to arrive at a conclusion on which MLPs are under valued, correctly valued, and over valued. While MLPs with lower "historical DCF projection accuracy" are given a higher Required Rate of Return, some of those MLPs still fall into the under valued category.

    I would not buy any of the MLPs with accuracy ratings above three and a half. (Note - the higher the rating - the worse the accuracy.) I do currently own one with such a high rating. That has turned out to be a mistake.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    CompanyQ2-14ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistribution
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/14 DCF
    Large Cap Midstream
    Buckeye Partners, L.P.BPL5.30%4.80%10.10%BBB-2.5010.40-0.302.65.1095.86
    Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LPBWP2.16%1.00%3.16%BBB-4.0010.70-7.543.18.5424.24
    El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P.EPB7.18%2.50%9.68%BBB1.2010.30-0.623.13.1297.74
    Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.EEP5.89%2.00%7.89%BBB2.6010.50-2.612.94.61106.57
    Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD3.63%6.70%10.33%BBB+1.209.700.631.66.0767.62
    Energy Transfer Partners, L.P.ETP6.45%4.00%10.45%BBB-2.5010.70-0.252.34.2581.30
    Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.KMP6.71%3.20%9.91%BBB1.2010.00-0.092.53.2997.87
    Magellan Midstream Partners LPMMP2.92%9.00%11.92%BBB+1.0010.001.922.47.0872.27
    NuStar Energy L.P.NS7.06%1.60%8.66%BB+3.5011.50-2.843.14.44107.88
    ONEOK Partners, L.P.OKS5.09%6.70%11.79%BBB1.4010.501.292.15.4189.22
    Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA4.20%8.00%12.20%BBB1.1010.002.201.85.8086.01
    Williams Partners L.P.WPZ6.66%5.30%11.96%BBB2.5011.000.962.24.3497.00

    Average 5.27%4.57%9.84%    2.48

    CompanyQ2-14ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Small Cap Midstream
    Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P.BKEP5.70%8.70%14.40%none4.0013.500.903.37.8067.53
    Genesis Energy LPGEL3.93%9.00%12.93%BB-3.0011.801.132.27.8778.85
    Holly Energy Partners L.P.HEP5.90%6.00%11.90%BB-1.2011.200.703.15.3089.43
    Oiltanking Partners, L.P.OILT2.10%9.20%11.30%none1.4010.500.802.48.4058.41
    Spectra Energy Partners, LPSEP4.17%6.40%10.57%BB1.5010.500.073.16.3383.65
    Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P.SXL2.95%9.00%11.95%BBB-1.0010.001.952.67.0563.33
    TC PipeLines, LPTCP6.27%2.70%8.97%BBB-1.0010.00-1.033.63.7385.26
    Tesoro Logistics LPTLLP3.22%9.00%12.22%BB-2.0010.002.221.86.7885.51
    Transmontaigne Partners L.P.TLP6.03%2.80%8.83%none1.0010.00-1.171.93.9770.59

    Average 4.47%6.98%11.45%    2.67

    CompanyQ2-14ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Gathering & Processing
    Access Midstream Partners, L.P.ACMP3.62%9.60%13.22%BB-1.1012.001.221.78.3870.12
    American Midstream Partners, LPAMID6.41%6.30%12.71%none5.0012.500.212.56.0997.88
    Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P.APL7.21%7.30%14.51%B+5.0013.501.011.86.2991.85
    Crestwood Midstream Partners LPCMLP7.43%5.60%13.03%BB4.2012.500.531.95.0793.71
    DCP Midstream Partners LPDPM5.23%7.00%12.23%BBB-2.6011.500.731.96.2793.71
    EQT Midstream Partners, LPEQM2.03%9.60%11.63%none1.3011.200.431.79.1757.65
    Exterran Partners, L.P.EXLP7.60%3.00%10.60%B1.7011.50-0.902.63.9078.75
    MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P.MWE4.86%7.60%12.46%BB2.7012.50-0.041.57.6489.23
    Targa Resources Partners LPNGLS4.24%7.40%11.64%BB1.6012.20-0.562.37.9677.02
    Regency Energy Partners LPRGP5.96%5.00%10.96%BB2.7012.00-1.042.86.0493.66
    Western Gas Partners LPWES3.27%9.10%12.37%BBB-1.2010.901.471.97.6379.37
    EnLink Midstream Partners, LPENLK4.58%8.70%13.28%BBB3.5012.700.582.48.1295.36

    Average 5.20%7.18%12.39%    2.08

    I do not list the stat on historical DCF projection accuracy in the E&P spreadsheet. Every one in this sub-sector would have bad ratings. This would also be a sub-sector where my level of confidence in all CAGR projections are low.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    CompanyQ1-14ConsensusTotalBondsMyTot RtnConsensusPr Impl
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR

    AtlasARP11.44%4.00%15.44%NR13.501.942.42.06
    BreitBurnBBEP8.99%2.00%10.99%B-12.50-1.511.63.51
    EagleRockEROC12.05%0.10%12.15%B14.00-1.852.51.95
    EV EnergyEVEP7.78%3.50%11.28%B-13.00-1.722.15.22
    Linn EnergyLINE8.96%2.00%10.96%B+13.00-2.042.44.04
    LegacyLGCY7.62%3.00%10.62%B-12.50-1.882.04.88
    LRR EnergyLRE11.04%2.00%13.04%NR13.50-0.462.32.46
    Mid-ConMCEP8.88%3.50%12.38%NR13.50-1.121.84.62
    MemorialMEMP9.08%2.80%11.88%B-13.00-1.121.73.92
    QR EnergyQRE10.27%1.00%11.27%B-12.50-1.232.12.23
    VanguardVNR7.83%3.70%11.53%B12.50-0.971.94.67

    Average 9.45%2.51%11.96%   2.07

    While there are still several General Partner stocks with attractive "yield + CAGRs" due to the CAGR projections being so high - it is also a sector where yields are very near historical lows. This is a sub-sector with lower yields because of the high CAGRs. But I still have the strong impression that the market believes that "yields matter". Add to that, the current sector average Price/DCF ratio is well above the historical high.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

    CompanyQ2-14ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr Impl
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR

    Atlas Energy, L.PATLS4.10%20.00%24.10%B5.0016.008.102.311.90
    AllianceHoldings GP, L.P.AHGP5.23%9.00%14.23%none3.0013.500.733.08.27
    Energy Transfer Equity, L.P.ETE2.44%14.00%16.44%BBB-3.0010.505.941.98.06
    Kinder Morgan, Inc.KMI4.63%6.50%11.13%BBB1.0010.500.632.35.87
    NuStar GP Holdings, LLCNSH5.57%2.50%8.07%BB+4.0012.00-3.933.06.43
    ONEOK Inc.OKE3.29%10.00%13.29%BBB1.5010.003.292.26.71
    Plains GP Holdings, L.P.PAGP2.13%18.00%20.13%BBB2.009.5010.632.27.37
    Targa Resources Corp.TRGP1.86%18.50%20.36%BB2.0013.007.362.511.14
    Western Gas Equity Partners, LPWGP1.59%24.50%26.09%none3.0011.5014.591.69.91
    Williams Companies, Inc.WMB2.92%16.50%19.42%BBB3.0011.008.422.28.08
    EnLink Midstream, LLCENLC1.73%21.00%22.73%B+4.0016.006.733.014.27

    Average 3.23%14.59%17.82%    2.38 

    Jul 05 8:13 AM | Link | Comment!
  • South-East, South-West & Pacific Regional Banks 06-30-14

    Q: What is the (unwritten) first rule of regional bank investing?

    A: Know your NPAs (or non-performing assets to total assets ratio).

    If you do not see that rule being reflected in the valuations, then you just aren't looking hard enough. There are times when the numbers only whisper. On the NPA issue - the numbers are yelling.

    You really miss what's going on when you fail to quantify (or size) the risk attribute. That has been the theme in many of my recent articles and blog postings.

    It should be abundantly obvious that quality strongly influences valuation in this sector - and that may be due to the transparency that banks have in reporting their data.

    My question to any "quality influences valuation" doubters when it comes to BDCs, MLPs and REITs: If quality influences valuation in such a strong way with this sector, then how can you believe it is not doing the same thing in other sectors where quality gets relatively nebulous?

    The data:

    South-East, South-West & Pacific Regional Banks 06-30-14

    The Q2-14 dividend is used for yield calculations. The LTM change is since Q2-13. The Q1-14 book value is used in the price/book ratios - and the change in book is from Q1-13 to Q1-14. CBSH at times pays dividends in new shares or stock splits of 105 for 100 shares. This results in a shrinking book per share metric. LTM = last twelve months.


      12-31-13CurrentDividendCurrentDiv/EPSPr/BkPercent ChangeLTM % Change
    Company and stock tickerPricePrice/QuarterYieldRatioRatioPricePr+DivEPSTargetDivBookNPAs

    BOK Financial Corporation(BOKF)66.3266.600.4002.4037.471.480.421.63-4.26-1.515.262.6217.95
    Bank of Hawaii Corporation(BOH)59.1458.690.4503.0749.722.54-0.760.762.268.260.001.185.17
    Banc South, Inc.(BXS)25.4224.570.0500.8115.041.52-3.34-2.956.4012.46400.005.20-48.04
    Cathay General Bancorp(CATY)26.7325.560.0501.1016.971.37-4.38-3.850.003.23600.005.65-16.79
    Commerce Bancshares(CBSH)44.9146.500.2251.9432.491.963.544.54-2.127.390.00-1.12-33.33
    Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.(CFR)74.4379.420.5002.5749.512.006.708.071.487.506.253.73-42.11
    City National Corporation(CYN)79.2275.760.3301.7433.171.63-4.37-3.53-3.866.7432.004.22-27.91
    East West Bancorp, Inc.(EWBC)34.9734.990.1802.0631.031.910.061.090.437.8320.0010.57-15.87
    First Horizon National(FHN)11.6511.860.0501.6927.781.301.802.66-8.865.000.00-0.6611.59
    F.N.B. Corporation(FNB)12.6212.820.1203.7457.831.201.583.49-4.604.330.006.16-10.58
    Glacier Bancorp, Inc.(GBCI)29.7928.380.1602.2641.292.15-4.73-3.660.000.2314.294.17-25.67
    Hancock Holding Comp(HBHC)36.6835.320.2402.7240.851.18-3.71-2.40-0.847.470.002.57-14.49
    Prosperity Bancshares Inc.(PB)63.3962.600.2401.5323.021.46-1.25-0.494.513.4411.6313.69-86.52
    Regions Financial Corp(RF)9.8910.620.0301.8823.260.937.388.392.387.90400.005.37-25.65
    Trustmark Corporation(TRMK)26.8424.690.2303.7353.801.21-8.01-6.30-5.52-6.370.001.09-8.02
    UMB Financial Corp(UMBF)64.2863.390.2251.4229.321.87-1.38-0.68-3.159.204.656.97-12.50
    Umpqua Holdings Corp(UMPQ)19.1417.920.1503.3558.251.16-6.37-4.81-5.505.8650.00-0.32-19.40
    WestAmerica Bancorp.(WABC)56.4652.280.3802.9164.962.54-7.40-6.06-5.260.412.70-0.58-46.51
    Zions Bancorporation(ZION)29.9629.470.0400.548.990.98-1.64-1.37-3.784.90300.0010.06-30.24

    Average    2.1836.571.60-1.36-0.29-1.604.96 4.24-22.58

    The KBE Bank EFT (dominated by the mega-cap banks) has changed 0.75% year to date - with divs it has changed 1.07%.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.52% and the sector average yield (on Q2 divs) at 2.18% - the spread is -34 basis points.
    Weeding out banks paying sub ten cent dividends - the average yield would be 2.43% and average price/book would be 1.71.

    Dividend dates are:

    BOKF: 05-29-14BOH: 06-12-14BXS : 06-30-14CATY: 06-07-14CBSH: 06-22-14
    CFR : 06-12-14CYN : 05-20-14EWBC: 05-18-14FHN*: 06-30-14FNB : 06-14-14
    GBCI : 4-16-14HBHC: 06-15-14PB: 06-30-14RF : 06-30-14TRMK: 06-14-14
    UMBF: 06-30-14UMPQ: 04-14-14WABC: 05-15-14ZION: 05-28-14

    Note: FHN's dividend was paid in shares at the equivalent of $0.20/share

    Historical Bank Yield to 10 Year Treasury Spreads for the sector:

    Mar 06: -169June: -153Sept: -170Dec: -143
    Mar 07: -186June: -203Sept: -138Dec: -51
    Mar 08: 32June: -139Sept: 11Dec: 219
    Mar 09: 219June: 54Sept: -110Dec: -171
    Mar 10: -183June: -69Sept: -21Dec: -100
    Mar 11: -90June: -115Sept: 70Dec: 30
    Mar 12: -27June: 47Sept: 55Dec: 38
    Mar 13: 23June: -37Sept: -42Dec: -99
    Mar 14: -66June: -34Sept:Dec:

    Historical Bank Price to Book Ratios for the sector:

    Mar 07: 2.09June: 1.95Sept: 1.83Dec: 1.63
    Mar 08: 1.53June: 1.24Sept: 1.65Dec: 1.45
    Mar 09: 1.03June: 1.01Sept: 1.12Dec: 1.29
    Mar 10: 1.41June: 1.28Sept: 1.22Dec: 1.37
    Mar 11: 1.41June: 1.36Sept: 0.99Dec: 1.18
    Mar 12: 1.35June: 1.29Sept: 1.29Dec: 1.21
    Mar 13: 1.37June: 1.43Sept: 1.54Dec: 1.69
    Mar 14: 1.68June: 1.71Sept:Dec:
    Banks P/Es with Accuracy Ratings, NPAs and ROEs 06-30

     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS14 EPS RangeQuality Metrics
    Co.2011201220132014201511-1212-1313-1414-15201320142015HighLowRangeAc RtNPAsROEs

    BOKF4.175.134.624.274.4523.02-9.94-7.584.2214.4215.6014.974.374.106.32%1.51.1210.00
    BOH3.393.673.373.623.888.26-8.177.427.1817.4216.2115.133.803.508.29%1.00.7115.15
    BXS0.450.900.981.331.60100.008.8935.7120.3025.0718.4715.361.371.277.52%3.01.197.50
    CATY1.061.281.431.651.7720.7511.7215.387.2717.8715.4914.441.681.623.64%2.02.118.53
    CBSH2.822.902.752.772.972.84-5.170.737.2216.9116.7915.662.852.705.42%1.80.2911.56
    CFR3.583.863.784.124.357.82-2.078.995.5821.0119.2818.264.203.965.83%1.20.299.97
    CYN3.213.834.113.984.3519.317.31-3.169.3018.4319.0417.424.153.828.29%2.20.278.14
    EWBC1.601.882.102.322.5117.5011.7010.488.1916.6615.0813.942.392.284.74%2.00.5312.05
    FHN0.500.100.060.720.83-80.00-40.001100.0015.28197.6716.4714.290.770.6516.67%4.01.448.30
    FNB0.700.840.840.830.9220.000.00-1.1910.8415.2615.4513.930.880.7416.87%2.20.877.65
    GBCI0.241.051.311.551.72337.5024.7618.3210.9721.6618.3116.501.601.525.16%2.51.3711.04
    HBHC2.022.132.092.352.495.45-1.8812.445.9616.9015.0314.182.452.306.38%5.00.968.18
    PB3.013.233.584.174.387.3110.8416.485.0417.4915.0114.294.254.103.60%1.00.129.52
    RF0.170.740.810.860.91335.299.466.175.8113.1112.3511.670.930.7916.28%2.52.616.96
    TRMK1.591.781.911.711.7211.957.30-10.470.5812.9314.4414.351.781.6010.53%2.01.498.60
    UMBF2.643.043.143.073.5615.153.29-2.2315.9620.1920.6517.813.152.985.54%1.00.236.13
    UMPQ0.660.930.951.031.2940.912.158.4225.2418.8617.4013.891.080.998.74%2.51.114.35
    WABC3.062.932.522.342.42-4.25-13.99-7.143.4220.7522.3421.602.392.322.99%2.70.2111.60
    ZION0.851.222.351.781.9143.5392.62-24.267.3012.5416.5615.431.941.6019.10%4.01.355.52

    Average     5.7362.349.2527.1116.8415.43  8.52%2.3

    Note: The percentage range on the estimates is the high minus low divided by the consensus estimate.

    NPAs and P/E Ratios: Tracking the influence qualitative metrics on P/E ratios.
    The banks with Q1-14 NPAs to assets of greater than 1.75% had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 13.92.
    The banks with Q1-14 NPAs to assets between 0.60% and 1.75% had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 16.39.
    The banks with Q1-14 NPAs to assets of less than 0.60% had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 18.31.

    ROEs and P/E Ratios: Tracking the influence qualitative metrics on P/E ratios.
    The banks with Q1-14 ROEs of less than 8% had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 16.81.
    The banks with Q1-14 ROEs between 8% and 10% had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 16.29.
    The banks with Q1-14 ROEs of more than 10% had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 17.75.

    Historical EPS Projection Accuracy Ratings and P/E Ratios: Just like college football - lower ratings are better ratings.
    The banks with Accuracy Ratings of greater or equal to 2 had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 16.65.
    The banks Accuracy Ratings between 1.4 and 2.0 had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 16.19.
    The banks with Accuracy Ratings of less than 1.4 had a mean 2014 P/E ratio of 17.79.

    Bank Dividend History [based on Q1 Dividends]

     Distribution/Unit/QuarterPercentage Distribution GrowthAv Growth
    Co.200820092010201120122013201408-0909-1010-1111-1212-1313-1412-1408-14

    BOKF0.2000.2250.2400.2500.3300.3800.40012.506.674.1732.0015.155.2610.2112.62
    BOH0.4400.4500.4500.4500.4500.4500.4502.270.000.000.000.000.000.000.38
    BXS0.2100.2200.2200.1900.0100.0100.0504.760.00-13.64-94.740.00400.00200.0049.40
    CATY0.1050.1050.0100.0100.0100.0100.0500.00-90.480.000.000.00400.00200.0051.59
    CBSH0.2160.2180.2130.2190.2190.2250.2250.80-2.002.680.002.720.001.360.70
    CFR0.4000.4200.4300.4500.4600.4800.5005.002.384.652.224.354.174.263.79
    CYN0.4800.2500.1000.2000.2000.2500.330-47.92-60.00100.000.0025.0032.0028.508.18
    EWBC0.1000.0200.0100.0100.0100.1500.180-80.00-50.000.000.001400.0020.00710.00215.00
    FHN0.4500.2000.2000.0100.0100.0500.050-55.560.00-95.000.00400.000.00200.0041.57
    FNB0.2400.1200.1200.1200.1200.1200.120-50.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-8.33
    GBCI0.1300.1300.1300.1300.1300.1400.1600.000.000.000.007.6914.2910.993.66
    HBHC0.2400.2400.2400.2400.2400.2400.2400.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    PB0.1250.1380.1550.1750.1950.2150.24010.0012.7312.9011.4310.2611.6310.9411.49
    RF0.3800.1000.0100.0100.0100.0100.030-73.68-90.000.000.000.00200.00100.006.05
    TRMK0.2300.2300.2300.2300.2300.2300.2300.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    UMBF0.1500.1750.1850.1950.2050.2150.22516.675.715.415.134.884.654.767.07
    UMPQ0.1900.0500.0500.0500.0700.1000.150-73.680.000.0040.0042.8650.0046.439.86
    WABC0.3400.3600.3600.3600.3700.3700.3805.880.000.002.780.002.701.351.89
    ZION0.4300.0400.0100.0100.0100.0100.040-90.70-75.000.000.000.00300.00150.0022.38

    Average      -21.77-17.891.11-0.06100.6876.04

    CBSH pays both cash and share dividends. Dividend growth in 2011 was negative on a cash basis, but positive after the effect of additional shares is taken into account. FHN has paid share dividends that were declared as being x amount per share - and those dividends were treated as cash dividends in the stats above.

    Disclosure: The author is long BOKF, CFR, PB.

    Jul 03 11:28 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Office/Industrial REIT Update For 06-30-14
    Office/Industrial Update for 06-30-14

    Yields in spreadsheets are the annualized Q2-14 dividend yields. On 4-30-14 CLI cut its Q3 dividend in half. CLI's Q2-14 dividend has been encoded with the value of its Q3-14 dividend to reflect the forward yield. Strange, but true. CLI did close on 12-31-13 and 6-30-14 at the same price.


     Share Price14 FFO Estimate Div/FFOPercent Change
    The_ full_Company_name_and_stock_ticker1-0106-301-0106-30Yield20142015PricePr+Div14 FFOTarget

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.(ARE)63.6277.644.734.773.71%60%56%22.0424.300.857.09
    Brandywine Realty Trust(BDN)14.0915.601.451.453.85%41%38%10.7212.850.009.03
    BioMed Realty Trust Inc.(BMR)18.1221.831.441.504.58%67%64%20.4723.234.170.31
    Boston Properties Inc.(BXP)100.37118.185.345.282.20%49%46%17.7419.04-1.128.33
    Mack-Cali Realty Corp.(CLI)21.4821.482.161.682.79%36%34%0.001.40-22.22-3.90
    Douglas Emmett Inc(DEI)23.2928.221.561.602.83%50%48%21.1722.892.569.44
    Digital Realty Trust Inc.(DLR)49.1258.324.864.845.69%69%64%18.7322.11-0.413.53
    Duke Realty Corporation(DRE)15.0418.161.121.163.74%59%55%20.7423.013.576.79
    Highwoods Properties Inc.(HIW)36.1741.952.882.904.05%59%56%15.9818.330.69-0.73
    Kilroy Realty Corp.(KRC)50.1862.282.672.732.25%51%46%24.1125.512.259.92
    Corporate Office Properties Trust(OFC)23.6927.812.442.423.96%45%44%17.3919.71-0.827.92
    PS Business Parks Inc.(PSB)76.4283.495.014.962.40%40%38%9.2510.56-1.00-0.58
    Parkway Properties Inc.(PKY)19.2920.651.431.383.63%54%50%7.058.99-3.506.15
    SL Green Realty Corp.(SLG)92.38109.415.645.911.83%34%32%18.4319.524.796.94
    Vornado Realty Trust(VNO)88.79106.734.754.852.74%60%57%20.2021.852.1113.97
    Washington Real Estate Investment Trust(WRE)23.3625.981.651.524.62%79%70%11.2213.78-7.88-6.03

    Office Average    3.43%53%50%15.9517.94-1.004.89
    Industrial
    ProLogis, Inc.(PLD)36.9541.091.781.793.21%74%68%11.2012.990.560.00
    East Group Properties Inc.(EGP)57.9364.233.423.433.36%63%59%10.8812.740.290.97
    First Potomac Realty Trust(FPO)11.6313.120.970.954.57%63%58%12.8115.39-2.060.00
    First Industrial Realty Trust Inc.(FR)17.4518.841.161.132.18%36%33%7.979.14-2.596.79
    Liberty Property Trust(LPT)33.8737.932.492.505.01%76%70%11.9914.790.407.97

    Industrial Average    3.67%62%58%10.9713.01-0.683.15

    Sector Average    3.33%56%52%14.7716.77-0.924.47

    Office/Industrial Price/FFO Ratios 06-30
    The FFO estimates came from Yahoo Finance except for OFC and PLD. OFC's projection came from its web site. I am using the 2014 core FFO projection for PLD.
    The influence of property cap rates on price/FFO numbers is strong - and explains why NYC property owning REITs like BXP, SLG and VNO have such high ratios.


     FFO / ShareFFO Growth/yearPrice/FFOFFO Spread
    Co.2008200920102011201220132014201512-1313-1414-15201320142015HighLowSprd

    ARE5865523524384324334775140.23%10.16%7.76%17.9316.2815.114.854.732.52
    BDN2391841341381351351451560.00%7.41%7.59%11.5610.7610.001.471.432.76
    BMR18616411611812914715015613.95%2.04%4.00%14.8514.5513.991.531.427.33
    BXP4784713904834884915285710.61%7.54%8.14%24.0722.3820.705.335.212.27
    CLI370329281278264238168178-9.85%-29.41%5.95%9.0312.7912.071.701.643.57
    DEI1331271241371371491601678.76%7.38%4.37%18.9417.6416.901.621.582.50
    DLR2592933394054424744845197.24%2.11%7.23%12.3012.0511.244.914.782.69
    DRE2481631151141011101161238.91%5.45%6.03%16.5115.6614.761.191.144.31
    HIW2752612462542732812903052.93%3.20%5.17%14.9314.4713.752.922.881.38
    KRC34226020522222326627330519.28%2.63%11.72%23.4122.8120.422.782.664.40
    OFC26424923012121324024224912.68%0.83%2.89%11.5911.4911.172.462.392.89
    PSB45055238846842149549652117.58%0.20%5.04%16.8716.8316.025.144.787.26
    PKY38133628619312690138149-28.57%53.33%7.97%22.9414.9613.861.401.279.42
    SLG620443484480529516591622-2.46%14.53%5.25%21.2018.5117.595.985.675.25
    VNO677446606600513341485512-33.53%42.23%5.57%31.3022.0120.855.294.5714.85
    WRE226214196190189179152171-5.29%-15.08%12.50%14.5117.0915.191.551.484.61

    Office Average       7.166.70 16.2715.23
    Industrial
    PLD3027212563101701791931600.00%5.29%7.82%24.1722.9621.291.441.336.15
    EGP3283142862963083233433654.87%6.19%6.41%19.8918.7317.603.443.420.58
    FPO1781648410611710395103-11.97%-7.77%8.42%12.7413.8112.740.970.925.26
    FR305208108694981131244.26%15.31%9.73%19.2216.6715.191.151.095.31
    LPT315284265258258249250271-3.49%0.40%8.40%15.2315.1714.002.522.443.20

    Industrial Average       3.898.16 17.4716.16

    Sector Average       6.387.05 16.5515.45

    Dividend History based on Q2 Dividends


     Dividends/Share/QuarterPercentage Dividend GrowthAverage
    Co.2007200820092010201120122013201408-0909-1010-1111-1212-1313-142012-14

    ARE0.7600.7800.8000.3500.4500.4500.6500.7202.56-56.2528.570.0044.4410.7727.61
    BDN0.4400.4400.1000.1500.1500.1500.1500.150-77.2750.000.000.000.000.000.00
    BMR0.3100.3350.3350.1400.2000.2000.2350.2500.00-58.2142.860.0017.506.3811.94
    BXP0.6800.6800.6800.5000.5000.5000.6500.6500.00-26.470.000.0030.000.0015.00
    CLI0.6400.6400.4500.4500.4500.4500.3000.150-29.690.000.000.00-33.33-50.00-41.67
    DEI0.1750.1880.1000.1000.1300.1300.1800.200-46.670.0030.000.0038.4611.1124.79
    DLR0.2860.3100.3300.4800.6800.6800.7800.8306.4545.4541.670.0014.716.4110.56
    DRE0.4750.4800.1700.1700.1700.1700.1700.170-64.580.000.000.000.000.000.00
    HIW0.4250.4250.4250.4250.4250.4250.4250.4250.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    KRC0.5550.5800.5800.3500.3500.3500.3500.3500.00-39.660.000.000.000.000.00
    OFC0.3100.3400.3720.3930.4120.2750.2750.2759.565.375.10-33.330.000.000.00
    PSB0.4400.4400.4400.4400.4400.4400.4400.5000.000.000.000.000.0013.646.82
    PKY0.6500.6500.3250.0750.0750.0750.1500.188-50.00-76.920.000.00100.0025.0062.50
    SLG0.7000.7870.3750.1000.1000.1000.3300.500-52.38-73.330.000.00230.0051.52140.76
    VNO0.8500.9000.9500.6500.6900.6900.7300.7305.56-31.586.150.005.800.002.90
    WRE0.4130.4320.4320.4320.4340.4340.3000.3000.000.000.280.00-30.830.00-15.41
    PLD0.5000.5200.2800.2800.2800.2800.2800.330-46.150.000.000.000.0017.868.93
    EGP0.5000.5200.5200.5200.5200.5200.5300.5400.000.000.000.001.921.891.90
    FPO0.3400.3400.2000.2000.2000.2000.1500.150-41.180.000.000.00-25.000.00-12.50
    FR0.7100.7200.0000.0000.0000.0000.0850.102-100.00nananana20.59na
    LPT0.6200.6250.4750.4750.4750.4750.4750.475-24.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    Jul 02 8:30 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.