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  • Packaging Sector Stat Update 9-02-15

    This is a small sub-sector of 'industrial' stocks. Why bother with this sector? (1) Dividend growth is superior to average. (2) EPS is superior to average. (3) Total returns since 2010 have beaten the S&P 500. (4) The 'yield + CAGRs' are attractive - because the CAGRs are big.

    What are the problems within this sector? It takes years of data before I feel comfortable setting RRRs (Required Rates of Return or risk assessments) in a given sector. I have only followed this sector for two years. Where you find attractive 'yield + CAGRs' - you strongly tend to have poor 'historical earnings projection accuracy'. And that condition is beginning to prove true. Where you find lower credit ratings (which is the case with these companies), you also tend to find poor accuracy. When I find higher RRRs, I want to have greater diversification. There is a problem diversifying here: (1) There are not that many companies - and a few of them are not attractive when it comes to their growth story. (2) Some of the better growth stories (BLL and WST) come with yields that are too dang low for this income investor.

    First - the year to date data and the P/Es. Second - the data that support the good growth stories:

    Packaging Sector 9-02-15

    The Q3-15 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q2-14. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q2-10. On 1-28-15 RKT agreed to combine with MeadWestvaco (MWV) to form a new company - WestRock (NYSE:WRK). Each RKT share = one WRK share. On 1-30 RKT declared a dividend of $0.320525/share, reflecting the regular quarterly dividend payment of $0.1875 per share plus an additional amount of $0.133025 per share which equalizes the absolute dividend between RockTenn and MeadWestvaco. This moved the payout ratio from 18% to 30%. On 7-01 WRK declared a dividend of $0.375/share and confirmed plans to spin-off its specialty chemical unit. On 2-26 PKG increased its Q2 dividend from $0.40 to $0.55 with the payout moving from 32% to 44%.


      12-31-149-02DivCurrentDiv/Div/Percent Change
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldEPS15EPS16PricePr+DivEPS15TargetDiv 1yrDiv 5yr

    Aptar Group, Inc.(NYSE:ATR)66.8467.380.2801.6638 %34 %0.812.06-5.714.630.0011.11
    Ball Corporation(NYSE:BLL)68.1766.210.1300.7916 %14 %-2.88-2.49-17.9824.260.0032.00
    Bemis Company, Inc.(NYSE:BMS)45.2141.930.2802.6744 %40 %-7.26-5.402.4015.423.704.35
    Greif, Inc.(NYSE:GEF)47.2332.930.4205.1098 %78 %-30.28-28.50-38.13-29.390.000.00
    International Paper Company(NYSE:IP)53.5842.150.4003.8042 %39 %-21.33-19.84-4.28-2.5914.2944.00
    Mobile Mini, Inc.(NASDAQ:MINI)40.5133.000.1882.2758 %44 %-18.54-17.15-15.58-8.3910.29Infinity
    Packaging Corporation of America(NYSE:PKG)78.0565.500.5503.3647 %43 %-16.08-13.97-11.76-1.3937.5053.33
    WestRock Company 60.9858.720.3752.5538 %37 %-3.71-1.86-2.9416.68114.2980.00
    Sealed Air Corporation(NYSE:SEE)42.4351.090.1301.0223 %20 %20.4121.0211.7633.490.000.00
    Silgan Holdings Inc.(NASDAQ:SLGN)53.6051.820.1601.2420 %19 %-3.32-2.72-5.645.826.6710.48
    Sonoco Products Co.(NYSE:SON)43.7038.740.3503.6155 %50 %-11.35-9.75-6.996.079.385.00
    West Pharmaceutical Services(NYSE:WST)53.2455.340.1200.8727 %22 %3.944.62-11.7116.4420.0010.00

    Average    2.4142 %37 %-7.46-6.16-8.886.7518.0122.75

    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up -4.86% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up -3.91% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.16% and the sector average yield on Q3 Dividends at 2.41% - the spread is 25 basis points.
    * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

    Dividend dates are:

    ATR : 8-18-15BBL: 09-14-15BMS : 08-31-15GEF: 6-30-15IP: 09-14-15MINI: 9-01-15
    PKG : 07-14-15RKT: 08-24-15SEE : 9-17-15SLGN: 9-09-15SON: 09-09-15WST: 08-04-15

    Price/Earnings Ratios 9-02-15
    WRK started fiscal 2015 at the beginning of calendar Q4-14


     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS15 EPS Range
    Co.2012201320142015201612-1313-1414-1515-16201420152016HighLowRange

    ATR2.502.792.862.973.2511.602.513.859.4323.5622.6920.732.852.753.37%
    BLL2.573.283.883.333.8127.6318.29-14.1814.4117.0619.8817.383.673.505.11%
    BMS1.532.282.302.562.7849.020.8811.308.5918.2316.3815.082.662.535.08%
    GEF3.352.752.361.722.16-17.91-14.18-27.1225.5813.9519.1515.251.761.703.49%
    IP1.723.163.003.804.0783.72-5.0626.677.1114.0511.0910.364.153.6014.47%
    MINI0.931.081.091.301.6916.130.9319.2730.0030.2825.3819.531.531.3613.08%
    PKG1.703.284.664.655.1292.9442.07-0.2110.1114.0614.0912.794.874.3112.04%
    WRK1.773.653.763.964.04106.213.015.322.0215.6214.8314.534.253.957.58%
    SEE2.201.231.862.282.61-44.0951.2222.5814.4727.4722.4119.572.262.107.02%
    SLGN2.182.773.173.183.4327.0614.440.327.8616.3516.3015.113.233.152.52%
    SON2.252.302.542.532.812.2210.43-0.3911.0715.2515.3113.792.702.584.74%
    WST1.361.631.781.812.2119.859.201.6922.1031.0930.5725.041.811.791.10%

    Average     11.154.0913.5619.7519.0116.60 

    The growth story numbers:

    Price Changes and Total Returns Since the Beginning of 2012, 2011 and 2010
      9-02-1412-31-11Change12-31-10Change12-31-09ChangeDiv Growth
    CompanyPricePricePricePr+DistPricePricePr+DistPricePricePr+Distsince Q4-09
     
    Aptar Group, Inc.ATR67.3852.1729.1535.9247.5741.6450.7535.7488.53102.4986.67
    Ball CorporationBLL66.2135.7185.4190.1734.0294.62100.3825.85156.13164.49160.00
    Bemis Company, Inc.BMS41.9330.0839.3951.6332.6628.3842.5930.1938.8957.3020.00
    Greif, Inc.GEF32.9345.55-27.71-14.8061.90-46.80-34.5953.98-39.00-21.9510.53
    International Paper CompanyIP42.1529.6042.4057.9027.4253.7274.0226.7857.3979.671500.00
    Mobile Mini, Inc.MINI33.0017.4589.1198.0819.6967.6075.5514.09134.21145.32 
    Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG65.5025.24159.51179.5725.84153.48176.1723.01184.66212.75166.67
    WestRock CompanyWRK58.7228.85103.54111.8726.97117.72128.1225.20133.02145.43150.00
    Sealed Air CorporationSEE51.0917.21196.86207.4425.45100.75109.9421.86133.71146.718.33
    Silgan Holdings Inc.SLGN51.8238.6434.1139.1835.8144.7151.4128.9479.0688.8057.89
    Sonoco Products Co.SON38.7432.9617.5430.8333.6715.0631.4829.8829.6551.9118.52
    West Pharmaceutical ServicesWST55.3418.98191.57198.8420.60168.64177.0119.60182.35192.8137.50

    Average  80.0790.55 69.9681.90 98.22113.81229.05

    S&P 500 or SPY 195.55125.5055.8265.54125.7555.5167.26111.4475.4890.7766.10
    Dividend History based on Q3 Dividends

    The dividends are displayed rounded to a tenth of a the penny. For the last to columns, 'Av Grw Last 2Yrs' is for the average dividend growth over the last two years and 'Av Grw Last 6 Yrs' is average growth over six years. The average is derived by calculating the dividend growth for each year, and dividing by the number of years. This is not a compounded growth rate.


     Dividends/Share/QuarterPercentage Dividend GrowthAv Grw Last
    Co.200920102011201220132014201509-1010-1111-1212-1313-1414-152Yrs6Yrs

    ATR15.018.022.022.025.028.028.020.0022.220.0013.6412.000.006.0011.31
    BLL5.05.07.010.013.013.013.00.0040.0042.8630.000.000.000.0018.81
    BMS22.523.024.025.026.027.028.02.224.354.174.003.853.703.773.71
    GEF38.042.042.042.042.042.042.010.530.000.000.000.000.000.001.75
    IP2.512.526.326.330.035.040.0400.00110.400.0014.0716.6714.2915.4892.57
    MINI0.00.00.00.017.017.018.8nananana0.0010.295.15na
    PKG15.015.020.025.040.040.055.00.0033.3325.0060.000.0037.5018.7525.97
    WRK5.07.510.011.315.017.537.550.0033.3312.5033.3316.67114.2965.4843.35
    SEE12.013.013.013.013.013.013.08.330.000.000.000.000.000.001.39
    SLGN9.510.511.012.014.015.016.010.534.769.0916.677.146.676.909.14
    SON27.028.029.030.031.032.035.03.703.573.453.333.239.386.304.44
    WST7.58.08.59.09.510.012.06.676.255.885.565.2620.0012.638.27

    Average      46.5423.4710.2918.066.4819.65  
    Sep 04 9:15 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Technology & Industrial Dividend Growth Companies Stats For 9-02-15
    Technology & Industrial Dividend Growth Companies 9-02-15

    The Q3-15 dividend is used for yield calculations. This is another sector where the fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. ACN pays dividends only twice per year - and that quirk is accounted for in the yield calculation and the dividend/EPS ratio. The change in the price, price + dividend, 2015 EPS projection and target is the change since market's close of 12-31-14. DD had a 1053 to 1000 Stock Split - and I have not adjusted some of the data (except for the dividends) for that atypical event - target changes, YTD changes - many of the stats could be 5.3% off.


      12-31-14CurrentDividendQ2-15Div/EPSPercent Change
    The_Company_Name_&_Ticker PricePrice/QuarterYieldRatioPricePr+Div15 EPSTargetDiv 1YrDiv 3Yr

    Accenture PLCACN89.3194.431.0202.1643%5.736.87-0.2115.079.688.64
    Analog Devices, Inc.ADI55.5254.590.4002.9354%-1.68-0.234.5918.478.115.88
    Amphenol CorporationAPH53.8151.940.1401.0823%-3.48-2.69-1.2114.9912.0055.56
    Apple Inc.AAPL110.38112.340.5201.8523%1.783.1917.3719.2010.646.45
    Applied Materials, Inc.AMAT24.9215.680.1002.5534%-37.08-36.28-7.75-17.170.000.00
    Automatic Data ProcessingADP83.3777.090.4902.5468%-7.53-6.36-1.377.612.084.21
    Broadcom Corp.BRCM43.3350.860.1401.1020%17.3818.02-16.2719.4816.679.09
    Cisco Systems, Inc.CSCO27.8225.650.2103.2738%-7.80-5.543.2714.2610.537.84
    International Business MachinesIBM160.44145.051.3003.5833%-9.59-7.97-6.54-6.4418.1812.28
    Intel CorporationINTC36.2928.600.2403.3645%-21.19-19.21-9.28-6.876.672.22
    Microchip Technology Inc.MCHP45.1141.090.3573.4854%-8.91-7.331.92-2.120.280.38
    MicroSoft CorporationMSFT46.4543.360.3102.8650%-6.65-5.32-7.871.7510.7111.59
    Maxim Integrated Products, Inc.MXIM31.8732.950.3003.6479%3.395.276.2919.547.148.33
    National Instruments CorporationNATI31.0928.400.1902.6895%-8.65-6.82-28.57-1.4326.6711.90
    Oracle CorporationORCL44.9736.750.1501.6322%-18.28-17.28-6.426.2025.008.33
    QUALCOMM IncorporatedQCOM74.3355.860.4803.4442%-24.85-23.56-11.52-10.9814.2912.38
    TE Connectivity Ltd.TEL63.2559.040.3302.2436%-6.66-5.61-13.989.2813.7910.67
    Texas Instruments Inc.TXN53.4747.350.3402.8753%-11.45-9.54-11.074.0613.337.14
    Seagate TechnologySTX66.5049.770.5404.3447%-25.16-22.72-12.45-13.1625.5814.04

    Technology Average   2.7245%-8.98-7.53-5.324.8312.18

      12-31-14CurrentDividendQ2-15Div/EPSPercent Change
    Company PricePrice/QuarterYieldRatioPricePr+Div15 EPSTargetDiv 1YrDiv 3Yr

    The Boeing CompanyBA129.98130.630.9102.7945%0.502.60-6.7410.4624.6629.21
    Caterpillar Inc.CAT91.5376.100.7704.0562%-16.86-14.33-26.05-22.9510.009.44
    Deere & CompanyDE88.4780.780.6002.9744%-8.69-6.66-1.45-0.530.005.88
    E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.DD73.9450.650.3803.0048%-31.50-30.47-21.23-12.58-14.80-2.29
    Danaher Corp.DHR85.7186.280.1350.6313%0.671.141.917.1935.00146.67
    Emerson Electric Co.EMR61.7346.790.4704.0258%-24.20-22.68-24.88-20.739.304.88
    Eaton CorporationETN67.9655.570.5503.9650%-18.23-15.80-11.55-5.3112.2410.32
    General Dynamics Corp.GD137.62142.450.6901.9431%3.515.016.4712.1511.297.74
    General Electric CompanyGE25.2724.570.2303.7471%-2.77-0.04-26.144.094.557.02
    Honeywell International Inc.HON99.9298.010.5172.1134%-1.91-0.880.005.9915.008.74
    3M CompanyMMM164.32141.241.0252.9052%-14.05-12.80-4.870.0619.8820.47
    Monsanto CompanyMON119.4797.210.5402.2238%-18.63-17.28-2.21-3.3310.2014.67
    Northrop Grumman Corp.NOC147.39164.610.8001.9433%11.6812.777.2824.3414.2910.38
    Parker-Hannifin Corp.PH128.95106.560.6302.3635%-17.36-16.39-8.81-12.4331.2513.33
    Pentair PLCPNR66.4253.850.3202.3833%-18.93-17.48-10.67-7.966.6713.04
    PPG Industries IncPPG115.5893.530.3601.5425%-19.08-18.450.5310.397.466.01
    Raytheon CompanyRTN108.17103.380.6702.5940%-4.43-2.57-4.456.1910.747.27
    United Technologies Corp.UTX115.0091.240.6402.8141%-20.66-19.55-13.89-7.428.476.54

    Industrial Average   2.6642%-11.16-9.66-8.15-0.7312.01

    Combo Average   2.6944%-10.04-8.57-6.702.1412.10

    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up -4.93% year to date.
    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] - with unreinvested dividends - is up -3.97% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.19% and the sector average yield on Q3 dividends at 2.69% - the spread is 92 basis points.
    * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

    The Importance of EPS Revisions year to date The following companies had growing EPS estimates since the beginning of 2015: ADI, AAPL, CSCO, MCHP, MXIM, DHR, GD, NOC and PPG. Their mean price change for the year is -1.83%. Their mean total return for the year is -0.49% - and 8 of the 9 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had decreases - but decreases of less than 5% - to the EPS estimates: ACN, APH, ADP, DE, MMM, MON and RTN. Their mean price change for the year is -7.30%. Their mean total return for the year is -5.96% - and 5 of the 7 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had decreases to the EPS estimates of more than 5% since the beginning of 2015: AMAT, BRCM, IBM, INTC, MSFT, NATI, ORCL, QCOM, TEL, TXN, STX, BA, CAT, DD, EMR, ETN, GE, PH, PNR and UTX. Their mean price change for the year is -15.11%. Their mean total return for the year is -13.52% - and 7 of the 20 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    The Importance of Rising Price Targets year to date This part-time cynic at times believes that 'people have to be told to buy stocks - and which ones to buy'. One way to test this universe to see if the market is 'following the talking heads' is via tracking the changes in their price targets compared to the changes in price.
    The following companies had more than 10% increases in their price targets since the beginning of the year: ACN, ADI, APH, AAPL, BRCM, CSCO, MXIM, BA, GD, NOC and PPG. Their mean price gain for the year is 1.09%. Their mean total return for the year is 2.41% - and 10 of the 11 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had increases in their price targets of less than 10%: AMAT, ADP, IBM, INTC, MCHP, MSFT, NATI, ORCL, QCOM, TEL, TXN, STX, CAT, DE, DD, DHR, EMR, ETN, GE, HON, MMM, MON, PH, PNR, RTN and UTX. Their mean price change for the year is -14.75%. Their mean total return for the year is -13.23% - and 11 of the 26 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    The Importance of CAGR projections year to date The following companies had CAGR projections of 10% or more: APH, AAPL, TEL, DHR, MON and PPG. Their mean price change for the year is -7.57%. Their mean total return for the year is -6.65% - and 4 of the 6 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had CAGR projections of less than 10% - but more than 7%: ACN, ADI, AMAT, ADP, CSCO, MCHP, NATI, QCOM, TXN, STX, BA, CAT, ETN, GD, GE, HON, MMM, NOC, PH, PNR, RTN and UTX. Their mean price change for the year is -10.31%. Their mean total return for the year is -8.7% - and 12 of the 22 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies CAGR projections of 7% or less: BRCM, IBM, INTC, MSFT, MXIM, ORCL, DE, DD and EMR. Their mean price change for the year is -11.04%. Their mean total return for the year is -9.58% - and 5 of the 9 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    Price/Earnings Ratios 9-02-15
    Companies that have fiscal years that match calendar years: BRCM, IBM, INTC, NATI, TXN, CAT, DD, GD, GE, HON, MMM & UTX


     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS15 EPS RangeYearEnd
    Co.2012201320142015201612-1313-1414-1515-16201420152016HighLowRange

    ACN3.844.214.534.785.229.647.605.529.2120.8519.7618.094.854.722.72%Aug
    ADI2.132.142.382.963.350.4711.2124.3713.1822.9418.4416.302.982.835.07%Oct
    APH1.741.932.252.452.7310.9216.588.8911.4323.0821.2019.032.482.441.63%Dec
    AAPL6.315.686.459.129.78-9.9813.5641.407.2417.4212.3211.499.508.738.44%Sep
    AMAT0.750.591.071.191.37-21.3381.3611.2115.1314.6513.1811.451.311.1910.08%Oct
    ADP2.722.892.582.893.276.25-10.7312.0213.1529.8826.6723.573.253.33-2.77%Jun
    BRCM2.922.722.972.783.05-6.859.19-6.409.7117.1218.2916.683.302.6025.18%Dec
    CSCO1.852.022.062.212.319.191.987.284.5212.4511.6111.102.432.219.95%Jul
    IBM15.2516.2816.5315.7316.126.751.54-4.842.488.779.229.0016.1615.524.07%Dec
    INTC2.131.892.312.152.32-11.2722.22-6.937.9112.3813.3012.332.371.8524.19%Dec
    MCHP1.891.892.452.662.600.0029.638.57-2.2616.7715.4515.802.752.509.40%Mar
    MSFT2.732.652.632.462.69-2.93-0.75-6.469.3516.4917.6316.123.172.4628.86%Jun
    MXIM1.571.771.621.521.8412.74-8.47-6.1721.0520.3421.6817.912.111.7026.97%Jun
    NATI0.780.640.990.801.12-17.9554.69-19.1940.0028.6935.5025.360.910.7618.75%Dec
    ORCL3.712.682.872.772.71-27.767.09-3.48-2.1712.8013.2713.562.912.3320.94%May
    QCOM3.714.515.274.614.7121.5616.85-12.522.1710.6012.1211.865.054.5710.41%Sep
    TEL2.863.233.313.634.1012.942.489.6712.9517.8416.2614.403.783.653.58%Sep
    TXN1.641.912.502.572.8416.4630.892.8010.5118.9418.4216.672.882.5811.67%Dec
    STX6.755.315.044.574.44-21.33-5.08-9.33-2.849.8810.8911.215.103.7629.32%Jun

    Tech Average    -0.6614.832.829.6217.4717.1215.36   

    BA5.887.078.388.039.3120.2418.53-4.1815.9415.5916.2714.038.868.198.34%Dec
    CAT8.905.796.384.944.55-34.9410.19-22.57-7.8911.9315.4016.735.254.6412.35%Dec
    DE7.639.098.635.444.6619.13-5.06-36.96-14.349.3614.8517.335.905.3510.11%Oct
    DD3.333.884.013.193.5616.523.35-20.4511.6012.6315.8814.234.103.4221.32%Dec
    DHR2.833.423.754.264.8120.859.6513.6012.9123.0120.2517.944.364.233.05%Dec
    EMR3.393.543.753.233.344.425.93-13.873.4112.4814.4914.013.603.2112.07%Dec
    ETN3.944.134.684.445.014.8213.32-5.1312.8411.8712.5211.094.884.655.18%Dec
    GD6.487.037.778.899.548.4910.5314.417.3118.3316.0214.938.808.345.17%Dec
    GE1.521.641.651.301.547.890.61-21.2118.4614.8918.9015.951.321.264.62%Dec
    HON4.484.975.566.116.6910.9411.879.899.4917.6316.0414.656.156.002.45%Dec
    MMM6.326.727.497.818.656.3311.464.2710.7618.8618.0816.338.057.832.82%Dec
    MON3.704.565.235.766.4023.2414.6910.1311.1118.5916.8815.195.855.682.95%Aug
    NOC7.818.359.579.7210.896.9114.611.5712.0417.2016.9415.129.859.404.63%Dec
    PH7.456.266.457.256.97-15.973.0412.40-3.8616.5214.7015.297.556.5513.79%Jun
    PNR2.393.213.783.854.1734.3117.761.858.3114.2513.9912.913.813.566.49%Dec
    PPG3.224.144.885.736.5228.5717.8717.4213.7919.1716.3214.355.905.556.11%Dec
    RTN5.655.966.976.667.035.4916.95-4.455.5614.8315.5214.716.976.704.05%Dec
    UTX5.356.216.826.206.8016.079.82-9.099.6813.3814.7213.427.096.834.19%Dec

    Ind Average    10.7810.89-3.088.0616.5016.9315.78   

    Combo Average   4.7512.970.118.8817.0117.0315.56   

    Sep 03 9:29 AM | Link | Comment!
  • North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 09-02-15

    As a share holder in USB, I want to know why it is under performing in 2015. The USB EPS projection is down - but it is down less than the sector average decrease. So that is not the reason. The USB price target is up - and it is up less than the sector average increase. That is part of the reason. Looking for a reason the target might be falling - look at dividend growth. The year over year dividend for USB is up 4.08% - while the increase in 2014 was 6.52%. A falling dividend CAGR is a good reason for a price target fall. Year over year book growth has been 7.29%. At the end of 2014 (which would compared book values of Q3-14 to Q3-13), book growth was 10.72%. Slowing book growth would be a second metric to justify a falling CAGR. With a falling EPS projection, year over year EPS growth is down compared to the expectation at the beginning of the year.

    Here is the rest of the data:

    North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 09-02-15

    Yields below are based on the Q2-15 dividends. Price/book ratios are based on the Q1-15 book values. The change in book compares Q1-14 to Q1-15. The change in the dividend compares Q2-14 to Q2-15. BB&T completed its acquisition of Susquehanna Bancshares effective Aug. 1, 2015.


      12-31-14CurrentDividendCurrentDiv/EPSPr/BkYTD Percent ChangeLTM
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldRatioRatioPricePr+Div15 EPSTargetBookDiv

    Associated Banc-Corp(NYSE:ASB)18.4217.750.102.25%33.330.95-3.64-2.55-4.768.094.11%11.11%
    BB&T Corporation(NYSE:BBT)38.8935.880.273.01%40.301.17-7.74-5.66-8.845.653.62%12.50%
    City Holding Co.(NASDAQ:CHCO)46.5347.260.423.55%47.191.761.574.2810.5612.365.38%5.00%
    Comerica Incorporated(NYSE:CMA)46.8442.650.211.97%29.171.01-8.95-8.05-9.43-0.383.51%5.00%
    First Third Bancorp(NASDAQ:FITB)20.3819.340.132.69%32.501.10-5.10-3.19-7.510.785.26%0.00%
    First Midwest Bancorp(NASDAQ:FMBI)17.1117.230.092.09%30.771.190.702.28-4.108.814.49%12.50%
    FirstMerit Corporation(NASDAQ:FMER)18.8917.370.163.68%47.061.03-8.05-6.35-7.481.683.38%0.00%
    Fulton Financial Corp.(NASDAQ:FULT)12.3611.820.093.05%43.901.03-4.37-2.18-7.872.633.51%12.50%
    Huntington Bancshares(NASDAQ:HBAN)10.5210.590.062.27%28.241.390.671.816.2513.316.14%20.00%
    MB Financial(NASDAQ:MBFI)32.8631.890.172.13%33.501.21-2.95-1.92-7.318.205.37%41.67%
    M&T Bank Corporation(NYSE:MTB)125.62115.270.702.43%36.131.34-8.24-7.12-8.825.363.67%0.00%
    NBTB Bancorp(NASDAQ:NBTB)26.2725.700.223.42%51.461.28-2.17-0.49-3.933.392.61%4.76%
    Northern Trust Corp,(NASDAQ:NTRS)67.4068.930.362.09%36.731.922.273.346.8117.125.18%9.09%
    Old National Bancorp.(NASDAQ:ONB)14.8813.480.123.56%51.611.07-9.41-7.80-19.13-2.614.81%9.09%
    Synovus Financial Corp.(NYSE:SNV)27.0929.760.101.34%24.541.379.8610.591.2421.193.37%42.86%
    Susquehanna Bancshares(NASDAQ:SUSQ)13.4314.200.092.54%49.320.935.737.07-3.954.082.48%0.00%
    US Bancorp(NYSE:USB)44.9541.020.262.49%31.871.82-8.74-7.04-2.444.857.29%4.08%
    Valley National Bancorp(NYSE:VLY)9.719.240.114.76%78.571.15-4.84-2.57-9.682.522.68%0.00%

    Average    2.74%40.341.26-2.97-1.42-4.476.504.27%10.56%

    The KBE [the Bank EFT] is up -1.85% year to date - and with dividends is up -1.08% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.19% and the sector average yield on Q2-15 dividends at 2.74% - the spread is 55 basis points.

    Banks Price/EPS Ratios 09-02-15


     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS15 EPS Range
    Co.2012201320142015201612-1313-1414-1515-16201420152016HighLowRange

    ASB0.991.101.161.201.3311.115.453.4510.8315.3014.7913.351.251.204.17%
    BBT2.692.892.732.683.247.43-5.54-1.8320.9013.1413.3911.073.012.6712.69%
    CHCO2.733.063.383.563.2912.0910.465.33-7.5813.9813.2814.363.303.163.93%
    CMA2.663.003.162.883.3312.785.33-8.8615.6313.5014.8112.813.152.908.68%
    FITB1.632.021.661.601.8023.93-17.82-3.6112.5011.6512.0910.741.751.5611.87%
    FMBI0.101.060.921.171.29960.00-13.2127.1710.2618.7314.7313.361.221.0911.11%
    FMER1.201.181.391.361.48-1.6717.80-2.168.8212.5012.7711.741.451.394.41%
    FULT0.790.830.840.820.875.061.20-2.386.1014.0714.4113.590.900.7814.63%
    HBAN0.680.720.720.850.915.880.0018.067.0614.7112.4611.640.850.788.24%
    MBFI1.591.791.312.032.3312.58-26.8254.9614.7824.3415.7113.692.102.014.43%
    MTB7.548.387.457.759.1411.14-11.104.0317.9415.4714.8712.618.567.3815.23%
    NBTB1.641.651.711.711.760.613.640.002.9215.0315.0314.601.701.643.51%
    NTRS2.893.003.283.924.523.819.3319.5115.3121.0217.5815.254.003.756.38%
    ONB0.951.000.950.931.095.26-5.00-2.1117.2014.1914.4912.371.040.8817.20%
    SNV0.700.981.331.631.9140.0035.7122.5617.1822.3818.2615.581.681.548.59%
    SUSQ0.840.920.780.730.759.52-15.22-6.412.7418.2119.4518.930.750.698.22%
    USB2.873.003.083.203.504.532.673.909.3713.3212.8211.723.323.126.25%
    VLY0.740.630.590.560.68-14.86-6.35-5.0821.4315.6616.5013.590.620.5021.43%

    Average     -0.527.0311.3015.9514.8612.68

    The Predictive Power of ROEs on Price/Book Ratios: Price/Book ratios range from as low as 0.90 to 2.00 and may look all too random. But the Q2-15 ending ROE (return on equity) stats go a long way to explaining the variety of valuations - as well as some of the YTD price changes.
    The following companies had ROEs in Q1-15 of less than 7.00%: ASB, FMBI, MBFI, SNV, SUSQ and VLY. Their mean price gain for the year is 0.81%. Their mean total return for the year is 2.15% - and 4 of the 6 beat the sector median yearly price change of -2.97% and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 1.13.
    The following companies had ROEs in Q1-15 of greater than 7.00% but less than 9.00%: CMA, FITB, FMER, FULT, MTB, NBTB and ONB. Their mean price change for the year is -6.61%. Their mean total return for the year is -5.03% - and 1 of the 7 beat the sector median yearly price change of -2.97% and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 1.12. (There should be more of a spread in the price to book ratios.)
    The following companies had ROEs of more than 9.00%: BBT, CHCO, HBAN, NTRS and USB. Their mean price change for the year is -2.40%. Their mean total return for the year is -0.66% - and 3 of the 5 beat the sector median yearly price gain and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 1.61.

    The Importance of Changes in Target Prices The following companies had target price increased over 10% since the beginning of the year: CHCO, HBAN, NTRS and SNV. Their mean price gain for the year is 3.59%. Their mean total return for the year is 5% - and 4 of the 4 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean accuracy rating is 3.43%.
    The following companies had target price increases of less than 10% since the beginning of the year: ASB, BBT, FITB, FMBI, FMER, FULT, MBFI, MTB, NBTB, SUSQ, USB and VLY. Their mean price change for the year is -4.12%. Their mean total return for the year is -2.48% - and 4 of the 12 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean accuracy rating is 3.16%.
    The following companies had target price decreases since the beginning of the year: CMA and ONB. Their mean price change for the year is -4.84%. Their mean total return for the year is -3.26% - and 4 of the 14 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean accuracy rating is 3.19%.

    The Importance of Intra-year EPS Projection Growth The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that were higher than their beginning of the year EPS projections: CHCO, HBAN, NTRS and SNV. Their mean price gain for the year is 3.59%. Their mean total return for the year is 5% - and 4 of the 4 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that were less than the 2015 EPS at the beginning of the year: ASB, BBT, CMA, FITB, FMBI, FMER, FULT, MBFI, MTB, NBTB, ONB, SUSQ, USB and VLY. Their mean price change for the year is -4.84%. Their mean total return for the year is -3.26% - and 4 of the 14 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    The Importance of year-over-year EPS Projection Growth The following companies had 2015 beginning of the year EPS projections that were at least 8% higher than the 2014 actual EPS at the beginning of the year: ASB, FMBI, HBAN, MBFI, MTB, NTRS, ONB and SNV. Their mean price change for the year is -1.34%. Their mean total return for the year is -0.17% - and 5 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that were less than 8 percent higher than the 2014 actual EPS at the beginning of the year: BBT, CHCO, CMA, FITB, FMER, FULT, NBTB, SUSQ, USB and VLY. Their mean price change for the year is -4.27%. Their mean total return for the year is -2.42% - and 3 of the 10 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    Tags: USB
    Sep 02 6:29 PM | Link | Comment!
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