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  • Fifth Street Finance Corp. (FSC) Reports Calendar Q3/15

    The numbers are not pretty. FSC had falling TII and falling NII - and most BDCs did well on those numbers. NAV dropped - but not a lot. I would expect a negative market reaction due to the NII miss. But you never can tell. It is possible the market will be glad the NAV fall was in line with the sector numbers. It has only been 9 months since a rather big dividend cut (28%) - and NII has fallen to the point that it no longer covers the decreased dividend.

    FSC Reports NII of $0.1755/share compared to a dividend of $0.18/quarter Globe Newswire 12-01
    What They Earned Fifth Street Finance Corp reported for calendar Q4-15 Total Investment Income of $63.770 million ($0.3975/diluted share) and Net Investment Income of $28.159 million ($0.1755/diluted share). The Net Increase in Net Assets Resulting from Operations was - $2.389 million (- $0.0149/diluted share). FSC's net asset value per share was $9.00 compared to $9.13 at the end of Q3-15.

    The projections from Yahoo Finance:

    Earnings EstCurrent Qtr.
    Sep 15
    Next Qtr.
    Dec 15
    Current Year
    Sep 15
    Next Year
    Sep 16
    Avg. Estimate0.200.200.830.83
    No. of Analysts16.0016.0014.0015.00
    Low Estimate0.180.180.800.75
    High Estimate0.230.230.860.98
    Revenue EstCurrent Qtr.
    Sep 15
    Next Qtr.
    Dec 15
    Current Year
    Sep 15
    Next Year
    Sep 16
    Avg. Estimate67.80M68.92M282.15M282.02M
    No. of Analysts8788
    Low Estimate62.73M64.22M277.00M256.00M
    High Estimate73.80M75.80M288.40M312.10M

    The actual numbers:


    Realized & Unrealized Gains-34.699-12.118-3.836-66.163-9.021-14.333-4.123-2.512-2.562-4.389+2.531
    Realized & Unrealized Gains/share-$0.2163- $0.0752- $0.0238- $0.4106- $0.0570- $0.0976- $0.0281- $0.0181- $0.0198- $0.0348+ $0.0222


    Interest income51.97755.89456.92352.54152.08258.10053.99448.48441.966
    PIK income2.9933.4293.5554.4046.7616.2975.4705.6134.974
    Fee income4.9898.1735.66117.90213.5159.68312.48717.13810.104
    Dividend & Other3.8812.7032.0111.4453.8590.1940.1810.0960.048
    Total investment income63.77070.19968.15076.29276.21774.27472.13271.33157.092


    Total investment income63.77070.19968.15076.29276.21774.27472.13271.331
    Net investment income28.15932.49029.46935.17037.45834.66534.23336.218
    Investments @ fair value2.4022.3352.5382.7222.4962.6282.6842.377
    Wt Av Share Count160.430161.131161.130161.130158.263146.928146.928146.916
    Wt Av Yield10.8%10.9%10.7%10.4%11.1%10.8%10.8%10.9%
    Tags: FSC
    Dec 01 8:52 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Midstream MLP Stats Update 11/30/15
    MLP Midstream 11-30-15

    The consensus DCF (Distributable Cash Flow) projections were last (partially) updated on 11-13-15. The CAGR (the distribution Compound Annual Growth Rate) projections were updated 8-28-15. Yields are based on the Q4-15 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q4-14 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. The Dist/DCF number is the ratio of the Q4-15 distribution to the 2015 DCF projection. The 2015 DCF projection is an adjusted average of eleven DCF projections from the major brokerages covering MLPs. The CAGR is the percentage change in my CAGR projection since the beginning of the year. The target prices and EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.


    Company CurrentDistrib/Q4 DistDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change

    American Midstream Partners, LP(NYSE:AMID)10.200.472518.5397.42-48.25-38.66-50.26-11.010.00-87.50
    Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P.(NASDAQ:BKEP)6.200.14509.3565.91-6.771.95-12.9431.347.41-12.31
    Buckeye Partners, L.P.(NYSE:BPL)67.691.17506.9498.95-10.53-4.32-4.41-3.654.44-20.00
    Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP(NYSE:BWP)12.680.10003.1524.54-28.64-26.39-9.32-8.430.000.00
    Delek Logistics Partners, LP(NYSE:DKL)36.510.57006.2474.272.939.36-0.88-12.2916.33-20.00
    DCP Midstream Partners LP(NYSE:DPM)25.400.780012.2887.89-44.09-37.22-37.494.411.30-55.56
    Enable Midstream Partners(NYSE:ENBL)9.400.318013.5395.64-51.52-44.96-43.42-16.355.12-46.67
    Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.(NYSE:EEP)24.850.58309.38103.64-37.72-31.87-16.551.815.05-24.00
    EnLink Midstream Partners, LP(NYSE:ENLK)14.920.390010.46101.96-48.57-43.19-30.65-17.745.41-46.67
    Enterprise Products Partners L.P.(NYSE:EPD)25.390.39006.1479.19-29.73-25.41-19.21-9.636.85-15.38
    Energy Transfer Partners, L.P.(NYSE:ETP)38.211.055011.0493.78-41.22-34.72-25.33-7.228.2111.32
    EQT Midstream Partners, LP(NYSE:EQM)67.650.67503.9961.09-23.12-20.06-4.543.5122.730.00
    Exterran Partners, L.P.(EXLP)20.020.572511.4481.49-7.443.14-20.378.083.62-60.00
    Genesis Energy LP(NYSE:GEL)39.350.64006.5181.27-7.26-1.23-4.833.9610.345.88
    Holly Energy Partners L.P.(NYSE:HEP)33.310.55506.6688.1011.3718.791.735.446.22-10.00
    Kinder Morgan, Inc(NYSE:KMI)23.570.51008.6694.44-44.29-39.47-20.926.4015.91-29.41
    Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P.(NYSE:MEP)11.260.357512.70116.26-17.69-7.24-17.25-23.605.93-100.00
    Martin Midstream Partners LP(NASDAQ:MMLP)25.200.812512.9094.75-6.255.84-21.07-10.680.00-60.00
    Magellan Midstream Partners LP(NYSE:MMP)62.530.76254.8878.81-24.35-20.66-9.79-0.7714.23-1.11
    MPLX or Marathon LP(NYSE:MPLX)42.940.47004.3874.02-41.57-39.01-24.9023.9031.47-7.14
    MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P.(NYSE:MWE)48.000.93007.75101.09-28.56-23.02-20.11-12.174.49-33.33
    Targa Resources Partners LP(NYSE:NGLS)22.840.875015.3297.22-52.30-44.99-41.82-21.239.72-72.97
    NuStar Energy L.P.(NYSE:NS)40.021.095010.9491.06-30.70-23.12-12.885.250.0052.17
    Oneok Partners, L.P.(NYSE:OKS)30.230.790010.45116.61-23.72-15.75-30.92-18.621.94-81.82
    Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.(NYSE:PAA)24.780.700011.30108.95-51.72-46.27-40.23-16.016.06-57.14
    Phillips 66 Partners L.P.(NYSE:PSXP)58.000.42802.9581.52-15.86-13.37-0.24-4.5535.020.00
    Spectra Energy Partners, LP(NYSE:SEP)42.370.62635.9182.95-25.63-21.23-3.776.348.683.17
    Summit Midstream Partners, LP(NYSE:SMLP)18.610.575012.36101.32-51.03-44.97-52.52-17.4510.58-55.00
    Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P.(NYSE:SXL)27.870.45806.5782.90-33.29-28.91-22.80-9.8019.745.56
    TC PipeLines, LP(NYSE:TCP)49.460.89007.2080.18-30.56-25.57-13.777.515.9511.11
    Tesoro Logistics LP(NYSE:TLLP)49.950.75006.0172.64-15.12-10.03-5.7017.0016.730.00
    Transmontaigne Partners L.P.(NYSE:TLP)24.060.665011.0676.00-23.64-15.20-12.662.940.00-3.57
    Valero Energy Partners LP(NYSE:VLP)46.330.30752.6550.009.8412.7513.7144.7128.130.00
    Western Gas Partners LP(NYSE:WES)48.020.77506.4694.51-34.26-30.02-16.54-8.3814.81-23.08
    Western Refining Logistics(NYSE:WNRL)23.420.38256.5388.44-23.21-18.20-12.83-11.2820.28-16.00
    Williams Partners L.P.(NYSE:WPZ)27.420.850012.40101.49-49.41-43.146.63-12.5346.65-33.33

    Pipeline Average  8.7586.67-27.33-21.29-26.68-17.7511.09 
    Golar LNG Partners LP(NASDAQ:GMLP)14.340.577016.09114.83-53.96-46.56-17.58-25.565.29-73.33
    Navios Maritime Partners L.P.(NYSE:NMM)3.570.212523.8146.96-64.90-56.54-50.41-1.09-51.980.00
    Teekay LNG Partners LP.(NYSE:TGP)22.700.700012.3396.22-47.21-40.70-15.91-9.911.19-33.33
    Teekay Offshore Partners LP.(NYSE:TOO)13.290.560016.8591.43-50.39-42.03-48.362.514.01-12.50

    Shipping Average  17.2787.36-54.12-44.27-33.07  

    MidStream Average 9.6086.74-30.01-23.80-19.28  

    The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -34.57% year to date.
    The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is -34.67% and with dividends is -32.17%.
    The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 1.53% and with dividends is 1.99%.
    The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -0.43% and with dividend is -0.11%.
    With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.19% & the sector average yield on Q3 distributions at 9.85% - the spread is 766 bps.
    With the JNK yielding 6.22% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is 363 bps.
    With the HYG yielding 5.66% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 419 bps.

    Historical MLP Month-End Yields:

    Jan 05: 5.97%Feb: 6.10%Mar: 6.07%April: 6.15%May: 6.16%June: 6.03%
    July 05: 5.87%Aug: 6.10%Sept: 6.07%Oct : 6.45%Nov: 6.79%Dec: 6.92%
    Jan 06: 6.56%Feb: 6.68%Mar: 6.56%April: 6.68%May: 6.76%June: 6.82%
    July 06: 6.61%Aug: 6.65%Sept: 6.70%Oct : 6.58%Nov: 6.44%Dec: 6.28%
    Jan 07: 6.05%Feb: 5.96%Mar: 5.77%April: 5.54%May: 5.54%June: 5.43%
    July 07: 5.44%Aug: 6.05%Sept: 6.26%Oct : 6.20%Nov: 6.64%Dec: 6.70%
    Jan 08: 6.79%Feb: 6.79%Mar: 7.43%April: 7.08%May: 7.44%June: 7.56%
    July 08: 8.16%Aug: 8.45%Sept: 10.76%Oct : 11.73%Nov: 16.53%Dec: 19.50%
    Jan 09: 14.76%Feb: 14.54%Mar: 13.90%April: 14.66%May: 9.80%June: 9.59%
    July 09: 8.39%Aug: 8.61%Sept: 7.96%Oct : 7.84%Nov: 7.62%Dec: 7.13%
    Jan 10: 6.64%Feb: 6.50%Mar: 6.34%April: 6.23%May: 6.71%June: 6.27%
    July 10: 5.85%Aug: 6.14%Sept: 5.89%Oct : 6.14%1Nov: 6.00%Dec: 5.79%
    Jan 11: 5.87%Feb: 5.62%Mar: 5.65%April: 5.59%May: 5.95%June: 5.90%
    July 11: 6.21%Aug: 6.73%Sept: 7.10%2Oct : 6.51%Nov: 6.80%Dec: 6.45%
    Jan 12: 6.45%Feb: 6.43%Mar: 6.43%April: 6.42%May: 7.26%June: 7.06%
    July 12: 6.81%Aug: 6.87%Sept: 6.75%Oct : 6.79%Nov: 7.08%Dec: 7.31%
    Jan 13: x.xx%Feb: x.xx%Mar: x.xx%April: x.xx%May: x.xx%June: 6.14%
    July 13: 6.18%Aug: 6.51%Sept: 6.39%Oct : 6.34%Nov: 6.21%Dec: 5.77%3
    Jan 14: 5.92%Feb: 5.84%Mar: 5.69%April: 5.64%May: 5.48%June: 5.24%
    July 14: 5.50%Aug: 5.20%Sept: 5.28%Oct :Nov:Dec: 6.49%4
    Jan 15: 6.75%Feb: 6.47%5Mar: 6.72%April: 6.35%May: 6.44%6June: 7.02%
    July 15: 7.61%Aug: 7.85%Sept: 9.40%Oct : 8.68%7Nov: 9.60%Dec:

    1 The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX re-starting distributions, and not due to a decrease in unit prices. The same cause increased the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
    2 The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield.
    3 The deletion of high yielding EROC combined with the addition of low yielding EQM, OILT and TLLP to the coverage universe subtracted about 20 bps from the sector average yield.
    4 The deletion of EPB and KMP combined with the addition of ENBL, KMI, MEP, MLPX and TOO to the coverage universe added 1 bps to the sector average yield.
    5 The deletion of APL and OILT combined with the addition of PSXP, VLP, WNRL and GMLP to the coverage universe subtracted 7 bps from the sector average yield.
    6 The deletion of CMLP and RGP combined with the addition of DKL and SMLP to the coverage universe subtracted 25 bps from the sector average yield.
    7 When NMM cut its high dividend on 11-03-15, it subtracted 31 bps from the sector average yield - which went from 8.68 to 8.37. Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:

    Jan 05: 178Feb: 152Mar: 156April: 195May: 216June: 211
    July 05: 159Aug: 208Sept: 174Oct : 177Nov: 230Dec: 252
    Jan 06: 206Feb: 213Mar: 171April: 161May: 164June: 167
    July 06: 161Aug: 192Sept: 206Oct : 198Nov: 198Dec: 158
    Jan 07: 123Feb: 138Mar: 122April: 89May: 65June: 40
    July 07: 71Aug: 152Sept: 167Oct : 172Nov: 269Dec: 267
    Jan 08: 319Feb: 327Mar: 401April: 335May: 338June: 358
    July 08: 420Aug: 463Sept: 694Oct : 801Nov: 1360Dec: 1728
    Jan 09: 1191Feb: 1152Mar: 1294April: 1154May: 634June: 606
    July 09: 491Aug: 551Sept: 488Oct : 485Nov: 443Dec: 329
    Jan 10: 305Feb: 288Mar: 251April: 257May: 341June: 333
    July 10: 294Aug: 367Sept: 337Oct : 354Nov: 321Dec: 250
    Jan 11: 250Feb: 224Mar: 219April: 230May: 289June: 273
    July 11: 341Aug: 454Sept: 518Oct : 439Nov: 472Dec: 457
    Jan 12: 457Feb: 421Mar: 421April: 450May: 570June: 546
    July 12: 534Aug: 531Sept: 511Oct : 510Nov: 546Dec: 555
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: 366
    July 13: 360Aug: 373Sept: 378Oct : 379Nov: 347Dec: 274
    Jan 14: 327Feb: 319Mar: 304April: 299May: 300June: 272
    July 14: 299Aug: 286Sept: 279Oct :Nov:Dec: 432
    Jan 15: 501Feb: 448Mar: 480April: 432May: 457June: 467
    July 15: 542Aug: 583Sept: 762Oct : 678Nov: 766Dec:

    Historical MLP to JNK or Lehman U.S. High Yield Index Spreads:

    Jan 08: -96Feb: -139Mar: -71April: -136May: -151June: -225
    July 08: -175Aug: -145Sept: +06Oct : -163Nov: +154Dec: +165
    Jan 09: +64Feb: -103Mar: +63April: -02May: -409June: -489
    July 09: -480Aug: -439Sept: -412Oct : -413Nov: -450Dec: -478
    Jan 10: -461Feb: -444Mar: -432April: -375May: -355June: -286
    July 10: -283Aug: -259Sept: -344Oct : -299Nov: -277Dec: -278
    Jan 11: -253Feb: -279Mar: -211April: -185May: -148June: -166
    July 11: -104Aug: -101Sept: -137Oct : -105Nov: -97Dec: -104
    Jan 12: -97Feb: -66Mar: -66April: -61May: -34June: -28
    July 12: -46Aug: -14Sept: -10Oct : +01Nov: +33Dec: +83
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: -16
    July 13: +04Aug: +43Sept: +30Oct : + 1Nov: +28Dec: - 14
    Jan 14: + 9Feb: -11Mar: -9April: -15May: -28June: -39
    July 14: -25Aug: -40Sept: -43Oct :Nov:Dec: +61
    Jan 15: +99Feb: +89Mar: +167April: +66May: +94June: +113
    July 15: +169Aug: +203Sept: +338Oct : 278Nov: 363Dec:

    Historical MLP to HYG or iBOXX High Yield Index Spreads:

    Jan 08: -78Feb: -87Mar: -52April: -28May: -07June: -33
    July 08: -14Aug: +08Sept: +113Oct : +62Nov: +398Dec: +433
    Jan 09: +426Feb: +279Mar: +395April: +271May: -191June: -101
    July 09: -133Aug: -96Sept: -174Oct : -159Nov: -220Dec: -248
    Jan 10: -220Feb: -206Mar: -210April: -258May: -248June: -288
    July 10: -275Aug: -236Sept: -244Oct : -200Nov: -215Dec: -204
    Jan 11: -182Feb: -208Mar: -194April: -190May: -146June: -158
    July 11: -103Aug: - 99Sept: -119Oct : -89Nov: -82Dec: -77
    Jan 12: -77Feb: -53Mar: -53April: -50May: 01June: 09
    July 12: -13Aug: 9Sept: 12Oct : 32Nov: 64Dec: 101
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: -18
    July 13: +04Aug: +33Sept: +22Oct : +44Nov: +32Dec: - 2
    Jan 14: -06Feb: -08Mar: -17April: -17May: -29June: -20
    July 14: +02Aug: -22Sept: -28Oct :Nov:Dec: +108
    Jan 15: +140Feb: +139Mar: +105April: +123May: +140June: +161
    July 15: +214Aug: +252Sept: +408Oct : 341Nov: 419Dec:
    Nov 30 7:52 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Adding Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) To Large-Cap Consumer Stables Coverage - Stats For 11/27/15

    I would call Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN) a higher risk consumer stable company due to earnings volatility. At the same time, TSN is on a more stronger growth path at this point in time. The key reason I own a 10.4% weighting in consumer stables is to lower the risk of my portfolio. I am left with the question of why should I own higher growth TSN . . . if it is going to damage the lower risk attribute? Let me share some history:

    From 1999 to 2012, TSN paid a $0.04/share/quarter dividend. That is the kind of zero growth history I do not care for - and its the reason I have yet to purchase TSN. Add to that, TSN had negative EPS in 2009 and 2006. I was able to data mine for "adjusted earnings per share" going back to 2011 - but not before. TSN provides forward projections for multiple metrics when they produce their annual numbers. But adjusted EPS is not a part of those projections. Thus I lack the numbers to produce "historical EPS projection accuracy". But given TSN had two negative EPS years this decade, it is reasonable to expect an accuracy rating to be low.

    There has been strong dividend growth since 2012. The dividend coverage ratio is great. EPS growth is great. The TSN P/E ratio is low - and riskier stocks should have lower P/Es. At the same time, faster growing stocks should have higher P/Es. Put in different words, TSN should sell at a P/E ratio that is not in alignment with its CAGR due to the market having a justified assessment that one should have a lower level of confidence in a growth projection when there is higher than normal earnings fluctuations.

    There is one last risk omen that is poor for TSN: The spread between the high and low earnings projection is high.

    Below are the two of the main spreadsheets I produce - showing the newly added stats for TSN. I am not showing my "yield + CAGR - RRR" spreadsheet because I want to ponder my RRR assessment. My first impression of TSN - it looks like a good choice in small weightings and a poor choice in high weightings.

    Large-Cap Consumer Staples 11/27/15

    The Q4-15 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2016 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and target is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q4-14. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q4-10.

      12-31-1411-27DivCurrentDiv/Div/Percent Change
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldEPS15EPS16PricePr+DivEPS15TargetDiv 1yrDiv 5yr

    General Mills(NYSE:GIS)53.3358.410.4403.0162%60%9.5312.831.0612.947.3211.43
    JM Smucker(NYSE:SJM)100.98123.260.6702.1750%46%22.0624.72-3.0622.644.6913.50
    Tyson Foods 40.0950.550.1501.1919%17%26.0927.210.007.2050.0055.00

    Average    2.4252%49%10.1312.49-4.7111.4810.1214.48

    The SPY or S&P 500 EFT is up 1.96% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 3.41% year to date.
    The KXI or Consumer Staples ETF is up 5.08% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is up 6.36%.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.2% and the sector average yield on the Q4 dividend at 2.55% - the spread is 22 basis points.
    * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

    Price/Earnings Ratios 11-27
    2017 Projections are from NASDAQ. INGR lacked a '17 projection. I used 8% growth on '16 projection to generate a number for INGR.

     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPSCurrent Fiscal YearYear


    Average     1.247.729.5621.9220.3718.60   

    Nov 28 1:55 PM | Link | Comment!
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