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  • Transportation Year To Date Numbers 11-21-14

    Given the number of spreadsheets in my article on transportation stocks - which can be found at this link - I did not feel the need to post year to date numbers. Here is that data:

    Transportation 11-21-14

    The Q4-14 dividend is used for yield calculations. All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years - with the one exception of FDX - which starts in June. The tracking of target price changes began on 6-08-14. Due to Yahoo Finance tracking EPS projections from 90 days ago, EPS tracking began with the projections of March 2014. The last three years average dividend growth is calculated by dividend the total dividend growth from Q4-11 to Q4-14 by three.

      12-31-13CurrentDividendCurrentDiv/EPSPercent ChangeDiv Growth
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldRatioPricePr+Div14 EPSTargetLTM3 yrs

    CH Robinson Worldwide, Inc.CHRW58.3572.820.3501.9246%24.8026.608.2120.690.002.02
    Canadian National RailwayCNI57.0272.100.2301.2825%26.4527.664.8724.9913.8614.73
    Con-Way, IncCNW39.7148.480.1501.2425%22.0923.229.726.3050.00 
    Canadian Pacific RailwayCP151.32204.530.3160.6215%35.1636.00-1.0634.74-3.952.49
    CSX Corp.CSX28.7737.560.1601.7034%30.5532.220.5318.226.6733.33
    Expeditors InternationalEXPD44.2544.510.1601.4434%0.591.67-0.53-2.906.679.33
    FedEx CorporationFDX143.77174.460.2000.4612%21.3521.76-3.3013.2633.3317.95
    Forward Air Corp.FWRD43.9148.060.1201.0024%9.4510.27-6.420.9820.0023.81
    GATX Corp.GMT52.1764.740.3302.0430%24.0925.9911.313.046.454.60
    JB Hunt TransportJBHT77.3081.480.2000.9826%5.416.18-6.310.6233.3317.95
    Kansas City SouthernKSU123.83124.170.2800.9023% 
    Knight Transportation Inc.KNX18.3431.890.0600.7521%73.8874.8618.1819.930.000.00
    Landstar System, Inc.LSTR57.4577.550.0700.369%34.9935.357.8317.7116.679.09
    Matson, Inc.MATX26.1133.210.1702.0549%27.1929.152.9922.856.254.19
    Norfolk Southern Corp.NSC92.83115.360.5701.9835%24.2726.110.6213.409.6210.85
    Ryder System. Inc.R73.7891.820.3701.6126%24.4525.963.149.028.829.20
    Union Pacific Corp.UNP84.00121.850.5001.6436%45.0646.853.8821.1026.5822.22
    United Parcel Service, IncUPS105.08107.350.6702.5054%2.164.07-

    Average    1.3629 %24.0125.282.9113.4215.14

    The ^DJT [Dow Jones Transportation Average] is up 22.88% year to date.
    The IYT [iShares Transportation Average] - with unreinvested dividends - is up 24.40% year to date.
    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 11.91% year to date.
    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] - with unreinvested dividends - is up 13.37% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.33% and the sector average yield [on Q4 Dividends] at 1.36% - the spread is -89 basis points.
    The number for the first dividend change is for the last twelve months and not year to date. The second change is a 3 year average.

    Dividend dates are:

    CHRW: 09-29-14CNI: 12-30-14CNW: 12-11-14CP: 10-26-14CSX: 12-14-14
    EXPD: 12-14-14FDX: 09-30-14FWRD: 12-07-14GMT: 12-30-14JBHT: 11-27-14
    KSU: 10-07-14KNX: 12-21-14LSTR: 12-04-14MATX: 12-03-14NSC: 12-09-14
    R: 12-18-14UNP: 09-30-14UPS: 09-02-14  

    The Predictive Power of the Dividend/EPS Ratio on Valuations: Dividend to EPS ratios range from as low as the teens to the 60s - and may look all too random. But this ratio - during most time periods - helps explain the variety of yields and P/E ratios. There is some correlation to YTD price changes as well.

    The following stocks had Q4-14 Dividend/EPS ratios of less than 30%: CNI, CNW, CP, FDX, FWRD, GMT, JBHT, KSU, KNX, LSTR and, R. Their YTD mean price gain = 25.24% and 8 of the 11 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [18.01%]. Their mean yield = 1.02% and they had an average price/earnings ratio = 22.71. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 18.98% and they had an average CAGR projection of 10.11.

    The following had Q4-14 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 30% - but less than 40%: CSX, EXPD, NSC and UNP. Their YTD mean price gain = 25.12% and 3 of the 4 beat the sector mean yearly price gain. Their mean yield = 1.69% - and they sold at an average price/earnings ratio = 20.67. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 12.38% and they had an average CAGR projection of 9.63.

    The following had Q4-14 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 40%: CHRW, MATX and UPS. Their YTD mean price gain = 18.05% and 2 of the 3 beat the sector mean yearly price gain. Their mean yield = 2.16% - and they sold at an average price/earnings ratio = 23.25. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 4.77% and they had an average CAGR projection of 6.73.

    The Correlations of Rising Price Targets to year to date returns This cynic believes that 'people have to be told to buy stocks - and which ones to buy'. One way this is done is via the changes in their price targets.
    The following companies had rising price targets of more than 10% since the beginning of the year : CHRW, CNI, CP, CSX, FDX, KSU, KNX, LSTR, MATX, NSC and UNP. Their mean price gain for the year is 31.27%. Their mean total return for the year is 32.52% - and 10 of the 11 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had rising price targets under 10% since the beginning of the year : CNW, FWRD, GMT, JBHT, R and UPS. Their mean price gain for the year is 25.39%. Their mean total return for the year is 26.67% - and 13 of the 17 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had flat or falling price targets : EXPD. Their mean price gain for the year is 0.59%. Their mean total return for the year is 1.67% - and 0 of the 1 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

    Nov 25 9:54 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Packaging Update 11-14-14

    Packaging Portfolio 11-14-14

    The Q4-14 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q4-13. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q3-09. WST has announced a 10% increase in its Q4-14 dividend and RKT a 7% increase. RKT had a two for one stock split on 8-28-14 - and that is not yet reflected in the pricing in the data below.

      12-31-1211-14DivCurrentDiv/Div/Percent Change
    CompanyPricePrice/QuarterYieldEPS14EPS15PricePr+DivEPS14TargetDiv 1yrDiv 5yr

    Aptar Group, Inc.(NYSE:ATR)67.1364.830.2801.7339 %35 %-3.43-2.17-6.25-2.9512.0017.33
    Ball Corporation(NYSE:BLL)51.6664.240.1300.8113 %13 %24.3525.
    Bemis Company, Inc.(NYSE:BMS)40.9638.460.2702.8147 %44 %-6.10-4.13-6.45-3.023.854.00
    Greif, Inc.(NYSE:GEF)52.4042.810.4203.9276 %60 %-18.30-15.90-26.09-8.870.002.11
    International Paper Company(NYSE:IP)49.0354.430.4002.9448 %40 %11.0113.46-9.592.0014.29300.00
    Mobile Mini, Inc.(NASDAQ:MINI)41.1845.210.1701.5063 %44 %9.7911.02-6.09-0.76-0.00Infinity
    Packaging Corporation of America(NYSE:PKG)63.2872.290.4002.2134 %30 %14.2416.770.872.890.0033.33
    Rock-Tenn Company(NYSE:RKT)105.01111.200.3751.3520 %19 %5.896.972.591.487.1430.00
    Sealed Air Corporation(NYSE:SEE)34.0537.960.1301.3730 %26 %11.4812.632.966.300.001.67
    Silgan Holdings Inc.(NASDAQ:SLGN)48.0249.130.1501.2219 %18 %2.313.25-0.325.427.1411.58
    Sonoco Products Co.(NYSE:SON)41.7240.670.3203.1551 %46 %-2.52-0.220.00-1.573.233.70
    West Pharmaceutical Services(NYSE:WST)49.0651.350.1100.8624 %21 %4.675.56-1.0923.4410.007.50

    Average    1.9939 %33 %4.456.03-3.862.794.8040.29

    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 10.59% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 12.05% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.32% and the sector average yield [on Q4 Dividends] at 1.99% - the spread is -33 basis points.
    * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

    Dividend dates are:

    ATR : 11-25-14BBL: 12-14-14BMS : 11-30-14GEF: 09-30-14IP: 12-14-14
    MINI: 12-02-14PKG : 10-14-14RKT: 11-16-14SEE : 12-18-14SLGN: 12-14-14SON: 12-09-14WST: 11-04-14

    The relationship between CAGR projections and yields: While yields are also strongly risk, the influence of dividend growth projections can also be seen.
    The following had CAGR projections equal to or over 10%: ATR, BLL, PKG, RKT and WST. Their current average yield is 1.36%.
    The following had CAGR projections under 10% but over 5%: BMS, GEF, IP, MINI, SEE and SLGN. Their current average yield is 2.23%.
    The following had CAGR projections equal to or under 5.0%: SON. Their current average yield is 3.15%.
    The relationship between credit ratings and yields: While yields are also strongly influenced by dividend growth and dividend coverage, the influence of credit ratings can also be seen.
    The following had corporate credit ratings of AA+. AA, or AA-: (none). Their current average yield is NaN%.
    The following had corporate credit ratings of A+. A, or A-: (none). Their current average yield is NaN%.
    The following had credit ratings equal to BBB or BBB-: BMS, IP, PKG and RKT. Their current average yield is 2.05%.
    The following had corporate credit ratings of BB+, BB or BB-: BLL, GEF, MINI and SLGN. Their current average yield is 1.84%.
    The following had corporate credit ratings of B, B- or were note rated: ATR, SEE and WST. Their current average yield is 1.22%.

    Price/Earnings Ratios 11-14
    RKT started fiscal 2015 at the beginning of calendar Q4-14

     EPS / Share% EPS GrowthPrice/EPS14 EPS Range


    Average     31.2010.6114.9122.4520.4917.56   

    Price Changes and Total Returns Since the Beginning of 2012, 2011 and 2010

      11-14-1412-31-11Change12-31-10Change12-31-09ChangeDiv Growth
    CompanyPricePricePricePr+DistPricePricePr+DistPricePricePr+Distsince Q4-09
    Aptar Group, Inc.ATR64.8352.1724.2729.9647.5736.2844.2135.7481.3993.7986.67
    Ball CorporationBLL64.2435.7179.8983.9334.0288.8393.8325.85148.51155.86160.00
    Bemis Company, Inc.BMS38.4630.0827.8638.2332.6617.7630.2530.1927.3943.9520.00
    Greif, Inc.GEF42.8145.55-6.025.0561.90-30.84-19.9853.98-20.69-5.2110.53
    International Paper CompanyIP54.4329.6083.8996.6927.4298.50115.8926.78103.25122.541500.00
    Mobile Mini, Inc.MINI45.2117.45159.08165.9019.69129.61135.6514.09220.87229.31 
    Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG72.2925.24186.41202.7125.84179.76198.7723.01214.17238.13166.67
    Rock-Tenn CompanyRKT111.2057.7092.7298.8353.95106.12114.1350.41120.59130.46150.00
    Sealed Air CorporationSEE37.9617.21120.57129.6325.4549.1657.3321.8673.6585.458.33
    Silgan Holdings Inc.SLGN49.1338.6427.1531.3935.8137.2043.0028.9469.7778.4057.89
    Sonoco Products Co.SON40.6732.9623.3934.6533.6720.7935.2229.8836.1156.1218.52
    West Pharmaceutical ServicesWST51.3518.98170.55176.6620.60149.27156.5819.60161.99171.3337.50

    Average  82.48106.04 104.74101.30 125.53127.29223.82

    Dividend History based on Q4 Dividends

    The dividends are displayed rounded to a tenth of a the penny. For the last to columns, 'Av Grw Last 2Yrs' is for the average dividend growth over the last two years and 'Av Grw Last 6 Yrs' is average growth over six years. The average is derived by calculating the dividend growth for each year, and dividing by the number of years. This is not a compounded growth rate.

     Dividends/Share/QuarterPercentage Dividend GrowthAv Grw Last


    Average      -4.9049.4922.4511.6720.515.24  

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

    CompanyQ2-14ConsensusTotalBonds'BondEPSMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDividend
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsYieldAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ EPS

    Aptar Group, Inc.ATR1.73%10.20%11.93%none0.0001.0012.00-0.072.810.4639.30
    Ball CorporationBLL0.81%10.00%10.81%BB+4.3101.0010.500.312.59.6913.37
    Bemis Company, Inc.BMS2.81%6.00%8.81%BBB3.5282.009.00-
    Greif, Inc.GEF3.92%7.00%10.92%BB-4.1292.3011.00-
    International Paper CompanyIP2.57%9.00%11.57%BBB3.6003.0010.501.071.97.9342.42
    Mobile Mini, Inc.MINI1.50%9.50%11.00%BB-3.0642.8011.
    Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG2.21%10.50%12.71%BBB3.5773.0010.502.212.58.2934.33
    Rock-Tenn CompanyRKT1.26%11.00%12.26%BBB3.6342.8011.500.762.110.2418.62
    Sealed Air CorporationSEE1.37%8.50%9.87%none5.3303.0011.00-
    Silgan Holdings Inc.SLGN1.22%9.50%10.72%BB-4.7001.0011.00-
    Sonoco Products Co.SON3.15%4.50%7.65%BBB+3.4121.008.50-0.853.05.4551.20
    West Pharmaceutical ServicesWST0.78%10.00%10.78%none3.8201.0010.500.281.89.7222.10

    Average 1.94%8.81%10.75%     2.56

    Disclosure: The author is long PKG, RKT.

    Additional disclosure: This is a sector that I have only followed in 2014. I am not an expert here. There could easily be metrics at play to which I am not yet aware. I am attracted to the strong "yield + CAGRs". I have a 1% weighting in the two stocks where I have investments.

    Nov 16 8:40 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • BDC Stats 11-14-14 - 1st Update With (Many) Q3-14 NAVs

    I do not have Q3-14 NAVs for the 4 BDCs that have yet to report their Q3-14 numbers.

    I should also note that it has been a bad year for the BDCs that entered the year with some growth expectations: HTGC, MAIN and TCAP. I have written about TCAP. HTGC does not have any LTM dividend growth - and its NAV is slighting falling. MAIN has increased the amount of supplemental dividends - which is hurting both NAV growth and future dividend growth.

    I was a few weeks late catching that SAR has gone back to paying quarterly dividends. I was also late in catching that HGPC changed to OHAI (thanks to a comment made below). I have edited this update to make those changes

    BDCs 11-14-14

    Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q4-14 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2014 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q4-14 dividend from the Q4-13 dividend; and the change in NAV between Q3-14 and Q3-13. Special dividends are not included in this data. FSC and FULL cut their first quarter dividend. BKCC and MCGC cut their Q2-14 dividend. MAIN increased its monthly dividend starting in September. Ride-sharing smartphone apps like Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar threaten the value of the medallions that are the source of TAXI loans. SAR has gone back to paying quarterly dividends. Its Q1-15 dividend rises to $0.21/share from $0.18/share. FSC, GBDC and MCC have yet to report their Q3-14 numbers.

      Share Price Div/Div/Div/Div/Q3-14PriceYTD Percent ChangeLTMLTM

    American Capital, Ltd.(NASDAQ:ACAS)15.6415.
    Apollo Investment Corporation(NASDAQ:AINV)8.488.199.7790.985.
    Ares Capital Corporation(NASDAQ:ARCC)17.7716.389.28107.896.897.59.216.710.98-7.82-1.41-15.06-
    BlackRock Kelso Capital Corporation(NASDAQ:BKCC)9.338.949.40102.495.5146.48.69.970.90-4.184.82-12.77-5.42-19.236.29
    Fidus Investment Corporation(NASDAQ:FDUS)21.7416.988.9596.289.994.
    Fifth Street Finance Corp.(NASDAQ:FSC)9.258.7611.4199.093.4101.610.39.710.90-5.303.62-1.940.77-13.05-1.42
    Full Circle Capital Corporation(NASDAQ:FULL)7.045.7313.96112.7109.6112.912.56.240.92-18.61-9.23-8.97-21.21-13.42-16.58
    Gladstone Investment Corporation(NASDAQ:GAIN)8.067.338.1984.581.
    Golub Capital BDC, Inc.(NASDAQ:GBDC)19.1117.447.34103.297.0102.58.315.441.13-8.74-3.72-9.49-
    Gladstone Capital Corporation(NASDAQ:GLAD)9.579.289.0596.6100.
    Horizon Technology Finance Corp(NASDAQ:HRZN)14.2114.259.68124.3100.0118.19.714.380.990.287.57-23.45-8.570.00-3.81
    Hercules Technology Growth Capital(NYSE:HTGC)16.4015.567.97103.393.298.311.910.221.52-5.120.55-7.69-0.660.00-1.92
    Kayne Anderson Energy Development(NYSE:KED)27.9736.315.7387.481.692.56.038.620.9429.8237.25-2.8622.7014.2938.72
    KCAP Financial, Inc.(NASDAQ:KCAP)8.077.6513.07104.2105.3113.713.07.671.00-5.207.19-5.88-6.320.00-4.36
    Main Street Capital Corporation(NYSE:MAIN)32.6932.416.2993.685.097.49.721.081.54-0.864.34-4.398.596.255.35
    Medley Capital Corporation(NYSE:MCC)13.8511.6112.7593.193.191.311.712.650.92-16.17-8.161.27-3.450.00-0.39

      Share Price Div/Div/Div/Div/Q3-14PriceYTD Percent ChangeLTMLTM

    MCG Capital Corporation(NASDAQ:MCGC)4.403.695.42333.3400.
    New Mountain Finance Corporation(NYSE:NMFC)15.0414.949.1095.
    NGP Capital Resources Company(NASDAQ:OHAI)7.476.4510.44148.8128.0159.
    Prospect Capital Corporation(NASDAQ:PSEC)11.229.6913.73111.8115.7111.312.610.470.93-13.64-3.86-6.30-4.260.44-2.33
    PennantPark Floating Rate Capital(NASDAQ:PFLT)13.7314.107.6689.393.1106.67.414.400.982.699.186.140.670.002.13
    PennantPark Investment Corporation(NASDAQ:PNNT)11.6010.8410.33103.796.6109.59.911.030.98-6.550.69-0.920.260.005.15
    Saratoga Investment Corp.(NYSE:SAR)15.6515.164.7538.944.448.33.322.270.68-3.13-1.98-2.63-8.70na-6.31
    Solar Capital Ltd.(NASDAQ:SLRC)22.5518.468.67102.697.
    Solar Senior Capital Ltd.(NASDAQ:SUNS)18.2215.659.01121.6105.2124.37.917.650.89-14.11-7.72-14.07-9.090.00-1.45
    Medallion Financial Corp.(NASDAQ:TAXI)14.3510.978.7584.280.0106.68.611.050.99-23.55-18.54-3.39-17.654.356.45
    Triangle Capital Corporation(NYSE:TCAP)27.6522.549.58104.996.4102.713.516.641.35-18.48-12.62-10.43-
    THL Credit, Inc.(NASDAQ:TCRD)16.4913.0610.4197.198.6103.610.213.290.98-20.80-14.61-2.10-12.860.00-0.67
    TICC Capital Corp.(NASDAQ:TICC)10.348.6313.44103.6104.5108.411.99.400.92-16.54-8.12-0.88-7.030.00-5.05

    Sector Average  9.43108.4  9.3 0.98-8.61-1.94-10.53-3.52

    With the 10 Treasury at 2.32% and sector average yield (on Q4 dividends) at 9.43% - the spread is 746 bps.
    The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up -10.43% year to date - with dividends its total return is -3.48%.
    Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filtering out the zero payout ACAS.
    Weeding out ACAS, the average share price gain is -8.80%.
    Weeding out KED, the average share price gain is -9.98%.

    Dates used to credit dividends:

    ACAS : noneAINV : 10-05-14ARCC: 12-30-14BKCC: 10-02-14FDUS: 09-25-14FSC : monthlyFULL: monthly
    GAIN: monthlyGLAD;: monthlyGBDC: 09-25-14HTGC: 11-23-14HRZN: monthlyKCAP: 10-28-14KED : 10-23-14
    MAIN: monthlyMCC: 12-11-14MCGC: 08-28-14NGPC: 10-06-14PFLT: monthlyPNNT : 09-30-14PSEC: monthly
    SAR: 10-31-14SLRC: 12-31-14SUNS: monthlyTAXI : 11-20-14TCAP: 09-23-14TICC : 12-31-14TCRD: 12-30-14

    Historical BDC Yield to 10 Year Treasury Spreads for the sector:

    Mar 10: 882June: 649Sept: 564Dec: 509
    Mar 11: 470June: 605Sept: 947Dec: 873
    Mar 12: 718June: 760Sept: 732Dec: 761
    Mar 13: 714June: 683Sept: 642Dec: 593
    Mar 14: 656June: 618Sept: 689Dec:

    BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 11-14

    Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q4-13 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.

     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E RatiosCurrent Fiscal Year


     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios14 EPS Range


    BDC Average     3.00-6.145.3010.6913.0512.72  10.22

    Disclosure: The author is long AINV, ARCC, MAIN, PFLT, PNNT.

    Additional disclosure: I also own BDC 'baby bonds' HTGY, MCQ and TCC

    Nov 15 12:41 PM | Link | 2 Comments
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