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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • Need Help With TCPC Numbers

    I am hoping that someone has access to TCPC numbers -- because they report in an extra quirky way. (TCPC fails to subtract all it should from NII. They report an adjusted NII number - but the 10Qs do not) The data where I believe I have problems is in bold fonts. Here are the numbers that I have:

    TCPC Reports Adjusted NII of $0.40/share compared to a forward dividend of $0.36/quarter Globe Newswire 03-07

    What They Earned TCP [Tennenbaum Capital Partners] Capital reported for Q4-14 Total Investment Income of $32.135 million [$0.6597/share]. Unadjusted Net Investment Income was $22.684 million [$0.4657/share]. TCPC does not provide a weighted average share count for its Q4s. I used 'ending' shares in my calculation of Q4 numbers. I only have the annual number minus the quarterly number to calculate the Q4 adjusted NII. Sometimes, there are problems with that math. The Net Increase in Net Assets Resulting from Operations was $34.548 million [$0.7092/share]. TCPC's net asset value per share was $15.01. TCPC IPOed on April 3,2012 with 5.750 million shares at a price of $14.75.

     Q4-14Q3-14Q2-14Q1-14Q4-13Q3-13Q2-13Q1-13

    Total investment income32.13527.19024.58722.66920.98617.28814.46916.866
    Net investment income22.68419.20018.42617.79116.26213.58811.46113.966
    Investments @ fair value1.1471.0750.8950.8160.7660.7040.5720.510
    Wt Av Share Count48.71140.08036.20036.20036.20026.65523.64021.478
    TII/share$0.6597$0.6784$0.6792$0.6262$0.5797$0.6486$0.6121$0.7853
    NII/share$0.4657$0.4790$0.5090$0.4914$0.4492$0.5098$0.4848$0.6502
    Incentive Costs4.3033.7683.6143.486x2.6402.2182.724
    Preferred Costs0.3570.3570.3570.369x0.3570.3930.393
    Adj NII18.02415.07514.45513.936x10.5848.85010.845
    Adj NII/share my calc.$0.3700$0.3761$0.3993$0.3850$0.$0.3970$0.3743$0.5051
    Adj NII/share TCPC calc.$0.40$0.38$0.40$0.39$0.40$0.40$0.38$0.49
    NAV/share$15.01$15.43$15.31$15.32$15.18$15.06$14.94$14.91
    Wt Av Yield10.9%10.7%10.7%10.8%10.9%10.8%10.9%11.1%

    I need good numbers in order to have the story. Without the full story, I am not offering an opinion. I need your help with the numbers. The numbers I am using for weighted average share counts in both of the Q4s are 'ending' share counts. The 10-Ks fail to provide Q4 counts. Only the 10-Qs provide the share counts.

    I wrote the IR of TCPC - and they took a day and a half to write that they would get back to me. It has now been another day and a half - and they have not provided the info.

    Apr 16 10:48 AM | Link | 4 Comments
  • First Look - HCAP

    My numbers:

    HCAP Reports NII of $0.3401/share compared to a current Div of $0.3375 Business Wire 03-12-15
    Harvest Capital Credit Corporation reported Q4-14 Total Investment Income of $4.240 million ($0.6825/share); Net Investment Income of $2.113 million ($0.3401/share); and a Net Increase in Net Assets Resulting from Operations of $2.744 million ($0.44/share). The Net asset value per share was $14.60.

     Q4-14Q3-14Q2-14Q1-14Q4-13Q3-13Q2-13

    Total investment income4.2403.9173.5173.0372.8642.0521.906
    Net investment income2.1132.2731.8132.0662.3291.4741.263
    Core Net investment income2.2652.2221.9292.1021.9681.4021.251
    Investments @ fair value0.1160.0970.0910.0820.0710.0520.045
    Wt Av Share Count6.2126.1946.1766.1566.1306.0984.248
    TII/share$0.6825$0.6324$0.5695$0.4933$0.4672$0.3365$0.4487
    NII/share$0.3401$0.3700$0.2935$0.3356$0.3799$0.2417$0.2973
    Core NII/share$0.36$0.36$0.31$0.34$0.32$0.23$0.29
    NAV/share$14.60$14.51$14.52$14.48$14.45$14.69$14.85
    Wt Av Yield15.1%15.4%15.4%15.7%16.6%17.6%17.5%


    Core Net Investment Income and Core Net Investment Income per share are non-GAAP financial measures that are calculated by excluding capital gains incentive fees that affect Net Investment Income for GAAP purposes for the periods presented, and excluding any income taxes related to realized capital gains and losses.

    What They Own

    12-31-14CostFair Value
    Senior Secured57,843,87258,017,267
    Junior Secured52,794,04153,030,636
    Equity1,372,5711,375,670
    CLO Equity2,234,2102,299,854
    Royalty Securities876,9231,111,001
    Total Investments115,121,617115,834,428

    Yahoo Numbers:

    Earnings EstCurrent Qtr.
    Mar 15
    Next Qtr.
    Jun 15
    Current Year
    Dec 15
    Next Year
    Dec 16
    Avg. Estimate0.330.351.461.59
    No. of Analysts3.003.003.003.00
    Low Estimate0.320.341.431.56
    High Estimate0.340.371.481.64
    Year Ago EPS0.340.291.341.46
     
    Revenue EstCurrent Qtr.
    Mar 15
    Next Qtr.
    Jun 15
    Current Year
    Dec 15
    Next Year
    Dec 16
    Avg. Estimate4.40M4.77M19.89M24.24M
    No. of Analysts3333
    Low Estimate4.33M4.66M19.59M22.62M
    High Estimate4.48M4.91M20.20M27.10M
    Year Ago Sales3.04M3.52M14.71M19.89M
    Sales Growth (year/est)44.90%35.60%35.20%21.90%
     
    Earnings HistoryMar 14Jun 14Sep 14Dec 14
    EPS Est0.350.320.360.33
    EPS Actual0.340.290.370.34
    Difference-0.01-0.030.010.01
    Surprise %-2.90%-9.40%2.80%3.00%
     
    EPS TrendsCurrent Qtr.
    Mar 15
    Next Qtr.
    Jun 15
    Current Year
    Dec 15
    Next Year
    Dec 16
    Current Estimate0.330.351.461.59
    7 Days Ago0.330.351.461.59
    30 Days Ago0.330.361.481.60
    60 Days Ago0.350.381.551.69
    90 Days Ago0.360.381.571.69

    Summation: I like the NII growth and the dividend coverage. But - at $14.27, HCAP yields 9.44%. That appears to me to be too low of a yield for a less than diversified BDC (its portfolio is too dang low) that is full of risk loans (the weighted average yield is too dang high). Add to that - I hate falling NII projections.

    Apr 16 10:37 AM | Link | Comment!
  • First Look - FSIC

    Most of us know (some of you - because I have repeatedly told you - and some of you just by looking at the numbers) what happens to BDCs with uncovered dividends. So what's up with FSIC?

    My numbers:

    FSIC Reports NII of $0.2830/share compared to (an inconsistent) Dividend of $0.3228 PRNewswire 03-02-15
    What They Earned Franklin Square Investment Corporation announced Q4-14 total operating income $113.385 million ($0.4715/share) and net investment income of $68.055 million ($0.2830/share). NAV fell to $9.83. FSIC IPOed on 4-16-14 at $10.00.

     Q4-14Q3-14Q2-14Q1-14Q4-13

    Total investment income113.385115.917120.721114.796116.866
    Net investment income68.05560.10357.97355.87752.420
    Investments @ fair value4.1834.1384.2274.0784.137
    Wt Av Share Count240.480239.549255.301260.186258.263
    TII/share$0.4715$0.4839$0.4729$0.4412$0.4525
    NII/share$0.28$0.25$0.23$0.22$0.20
    NII/share my calculation$0.2830$0.2509$0.2270$0.2228$0.2030
    Adjusted NII/share$0.24$0.25$0.26$0.23$0.24
    Distributions/share$0.3228$0.3228$0.2228$0.2160$0.2137
    NAV/share$9.83$10.19$10.28$10.28$10.18
    Wt Av Yield10.4%10.3%10.3%10.3%10.2%
    Leverage  4.1x 4.0x

    First Lien Senior Secured Loans were 53% of the FSIC portfolio; Second Lien Senior Secured Loans were 17%; Senior Secured Bonds were 8%; Subordinated debt was 11%; and 'equity and other' as 8% as of 12-31-14. As of December 31, 2014, investments on non-accrual represented 0.3% of FSIC's total portfolio based on fair value. FSIC had investments in 118 portfolio companies.

    Yahoo numbers:

    Earnings EstCurrent Qtr.
    Mar 15
    Next Qtr.
    Jun 15
    Current Year
    Dec 15
    Next Year
    Dec 16
    Avg. Estimate0.250.240.991.04
    No. of Analysts3.003.003.003.00
    Low Estimate0.240.230.991.01
    High Estimate0.250.251.001.09
    Year Ago EPS0.310.270.800.99
     
    Revenue EstCurrent Qtr.
    Mar 15
    Next Qtr.
    Jun 15
    Current Year
    Dec 15
    Next Year
    Dec 16
    Avg. Estimate113.70M113.96M457.52M476.29M
    No. of Analysts3333
    Low Estimate111.20M110.40M444.00M453.00M
    High Estimate115.91M116.48M466.55M494.00M
    Year Ago Sales114.80M120.72M464.82M457.52M
    Sales Growth (year/est)-1.00%-5.60%-1.60%4.10%
     
    Earnings HistoryMar 14Jun 14Sep 14Dec 14
    EPS Est0.240.240.250.26
    EPS Actual0.310.270.23-0.02
    Difference0.070.03-0.02-0.28
    Surprise %29.20%12.50%-8.00%-107.70%
     
    EPS TrendsCurrent Qtr.
    Mar 15
    Next Qtr.
    Jun 15
    Current Year
    Dec 15
    Next Year
    Dec 16
    Current Estimate0.250.240.991.04
    7 Days Ago0.250.240.991.04
    30 Days Ago0.240.251.001.04
    60 Days Ago0.250.250.991.05
    90 Days Ago0.250.251.001.06

    Summation - Never buy an uncovered dividend. The above stats for 'distribution' is directly from a FSIC investor presentation. But -- the regular dividend is only $0.222/quarter. The regular dividend could be said to be covered. But the total distribution (or regular plus special dividend) for FSIC is not.

    Because BDCs as a sector have a terrible record for dividend cuts, I view all BDCs as guilty until proven innocent. Thus, I am not comfortable with the FSIC payout ratio.

    Apr 16 10:35 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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