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Grocery Or Consumer Staples Update 121614 http://seekingalpha.com/p/24cql Dec 17, 2014

Finding CAGRs In The Spreadsheets Of The CCC List http://seekingalpha.com/p/23zj1 Dec 11, 2014

Finding CAGRs At Yahoo http://seekingalpha.com/p/23zdr Dec 11, 2014
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Consumer Staples Stock Valuation Update 12915
The Q414 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Div/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q413. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q409.
Note  only 10 of the 17 have 2016 EPS projections provided at Yahoo Finance
Price/Earnings Ratios 129
To calculate first price implied CAGR  I take the RRR and subtract the yield. What justifies that formula? When a stock is correctly valued AND the CAGR is not discounted, then the Yield + CAGR = RRR. Doing the kind of formula manipulation we learned in algebra, we can arrive at a formula for CAGR by subtracting 'Yield' from both sides of that equation. Doing that, we get to 'CAGR = RRR  Yield'. I would want the RRRs to be higher for the riskier stocks for such a formula to produce meaningful output.
When it comes to arriving at a priceimplied CAGR from the P/E ratios, I want the opposite. A low ratio would logically belong to a stock with a lower CAGR or higher risk  and a high ratio would logically belong to a stock with a higher CAGR or lower risk. My formula is 'Ratio  adjustment = CAGR'. The AA rated stocks have RRRs of 8.5 and P/E subtractions of 15. The A rated stocks tend to have RRRs of 9.5 and P/E subtractions of 12. The BBB+ rated have RRRs of 10.0 and P/E subtractions of 10. The two 'high CAGR' A rated stocks have RRRs of 10.5 and P/E subtractions of 11. The two commodity sensitive stocks have RRRs of 11 and P/E subtractions of 5.5. I began the effort of setting price implied CAGRs based on P/E ratios in Q414 for this sector. The formula I use to set the adjustment numbers is still in flux.
Why do I provide two different price implied CAGRs? Using the 'CAGR = RRR  Yield' formula, the CAGR can not be greater than the RRR. There are not that many stocks with 5 year CAGRs above the 10% to 14% range I use for RRRs  but there are some. Due to EPS' failing to grow in equally stair stepped increments, there are times when the 'PE ratio' based formula fails to produce meaningful output. A stock can also sell at a logical P/E ratio based on EPS projections other than the 2014 projection. The ratios that I use in the following spreadsheet are 2014 EPS projection based ratios.
Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations
Disclosure: The author is long CL, GIS, HRL, HSY, INGR, PEP, PG, SJM.
Packaging Sector Update 12815
The Q414 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q413. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q309. RKT had a two for one stock split on 82814  and that is not yet reflected in the pricing in the data below. On 12815 RKT agreed to combine with MeadWestvaco or MWV to form a new and yet unnamed company.
Dividend dates are:
Price/Earnings Ratios 128
The Total Return projection is the yield + dividend CAGR. LT Debt/Mkt Cap is the long term debt to market cap ratio with the numbers gathered from Yahoo Finance's 'key statistics' page. EPS Accr is short the historical EPS accuracy. For this sector, my accuracy stat is based on the numbers of years in the last ten that had negative EPS changes. Consensus Ratings are also gathered from Yahoo Finance. The Div/Earn is the annualized Q414 dividend to 2014 EPS projection ratio. The P/E ratio and priceimplied CAGR based on P/E uses the 2015 EPS projection.
Disclosure: The author is long PKG, RKT.
Transportation (ExAirlines) Stats 12815
The Q414 dividend is used for yield calculations. All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years  with the one exception of FDX  which starts in June. The change in the price, price + dividend, 2015 EPS projection and target is the change since market's close of 123114. Some companies have yet to announce their Q414 numbers. Some analysts have yet to produce new projections for those companies that have already reported 2014 numbers. The last three years average dividend growth is calculated by dividend the total dividend growth from Q411 to Q414 by three.
Dividend dates are:
Price/Earnings Ratios 128
All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years  with the one exception of FDX  which starts in June.
Stocks with large spreads between the high and low projections have varied each of the three quarters that metric has been tracked
Disclosure: The author is long NSC, UNP.