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  • Should You Invest In Argentina Stocks Now? [View article]
    Do not invest in Arg equities at these leves, wait for a 30/40% avg decline which will be the support levels od 2002 and 2008.

    Arg equities have not bottomed yet, wait for them to trade at 2002/2008 price levels
    Nov 27, 2012. 07:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DirecTV Dividend Just Around The Corner [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I do not agree that DTV's management will start a dividend. On many earnings transcripts and investor events management said that buybacks are the most efficient way to return capital. Take a look:

    “You have go a stock trading at 5.5x EBITDA, we can borrow at 2% and we’ve got a 7% FCF Yield, gosh, and tax rates are what they are, it’s awfully hard to convince oneself that the smartest thing you can’t do for your shareholders is to continue to buyback stock”. – 2Q’12 transcript

    “If you guys want to give us a 6x EBITDA multiple, just like Warren Buffett described the IBM CEO, I will march my way to the banks to borrow money at 2% after tax and buy back shares, which is what we have been doing. The match is such that it’s just a compelling return of capital to shareholders ultimately to do it that way”. –Latam Investor Day March 2012.

    “We prefer buybacks to dividends. Buybacks are tax efficient and provides flexibility. While we won’t increase our 2.5x debt target and do not go out of investment grade, we will continue to do buybacks”. Goldman Sachs Investor Conference September 2013.
    Feb 1, 2014. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • To Invest Or Not? [View article]
    When you buy momentum you buy a stock at a specific price that you know in advance if the stock goes above that price with above than average volume a material trend could start. This could sound strange but you should learn some things related to technical analysis. You work with 2% stop losses, not more than that. 60% downside ? are you crazy ? I never loss more than 2% my initial position.
    I bought CRM at $160, stop loss at $156 but my reward profit is above 10%, so I am risking 2% to make 5,10 or more%. I am still holding CRM. The stock went up from 160 to 170 in days. The key is buying THE day the uptrend starts.
    Check my blog:
    They key is combining both fundamentals AND technicals. Not fibonacci, oscilators and all those %%$#$. I am talking about specific technical tools HF uses. Top performing hedge funds do this all the time, fundamentals+technicals.
    Dec 18, 2012. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Bruce Berkowitz's Top 5 Holdings [View article]
    One thing is how the business grows and other thing is the Company's financial risk.
    A business can be growing -100% for "x" number of years but if it has zero debt and huge assets to support operations the business and financial risk is strong.
    One thig is growth and other thing is balance sheet strenght.
    Apr 6, 2012. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Seth Klarman's Top Holdings: 5 Value Opportunities For Now [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, I agree with your thinkings about MSFT
    Mar 30, 2012. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Steven Cohen's Low P/E Stock Picks And Why He May Have Bought Them [View article]
    It is not easy to find relevant information on NCT.
    I apologize if I ommited detailed research facts about that stock but I just wanted to include an overall description because finding solid positive information was not easy.
    Mar 29, 2012. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Catching the Next Bubble [View article]
    I think that the next Google will be the Solar Company that could make every house, apartment, car, etc in the world to use 100% solar energy paying equal or less than non renewable energy.
    Apr 14, 2008. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Top 20 Stocks Of 2013 [View article]
    Excellent article!

    Do you have any recommendation on a good scanner that could combine both technicals and fundamentals in order to apply the main thesis you wrote in the article ?
    Jan 13, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: A Safe Bet For Long-Term Profit [View article]
    The article was already corrected. The mistakes were mainly made because of the little hedge fund bullishness seen lately. We sincerely apologize for the errors and hope that we can make it up to you, readers, with quality articles, going forward.
    Mar 20, 2014. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: A Safe Bet For Long-Term Profit [View article]
    The title has been modified and will be up soon. Thanks for the remarks
    Mar 20, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: A Safe Bet For Long-Term Profit [View article]
    There were, in fact, two serious mistakes, which you marked. Corrections were already submited, and should be up soon. Thanks for the remarks.
    Mar 20, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shop For 10% Yields With Alto Palermo's 2017 Yankee Bonds [View article]
    WRONG: "The Government of Argentina has had many issues, and those issues have had very little correlation to Palermo and their strong ongoing performance"

    All corporates from Argentina must access to central bank reserves to buy USD currency to pay yankee bonds. If Government of Argentina (Central Bank) keeps losing reserves at the current rate, ALL corporates will have trouble buying dollars to send payments abroad. This is the main reason why Argentinian corporates that have interest coverage ratios of 9x, 10x, etc have yields of +10%.

    Please, calculate ONLY the sovereign bonds maturities in 2015, 2016, 2017... check those numbers against the current cen bank reserves (which you must deduct from them 7bilion which are deposits in USD from the private sector in local banks and 3bn from multilateral credit institutions). The REAL reserves right now are just ˜20bn. They will face 6bn of USD payments in 2014 and 12bn in 2015 not counting corporates or provincial F.I.

    This is the REAL risk you should take a look when investing in this bonds.
    Feb 2, 2014. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shop For 10% Yields With Alto Palermo's 2017 Yankee Bonds [View article]
    I am from Argentina.

    The real risk in APSA bonds is not default risk from this company. APSA is impossible to default considering the valuable PP&E assets they hold and the recurring EBITDA they generate.

    THE REAL RISK comes from the Argentina's central bank reserves. Both the sovereign and corporates must buy dollars from the central bank, which are deducted from its reserves.
    Reserves are going quickly down and if you calculate ONLY the sovereign maturities in 2015, cen bank reserves do not cover those. That is the main reason why this bond trades at 10% yield. You have the risk of Argentina losing reserves, which happened in 2001 before the collaps and I think will happen again.

    I sold almost all my GDP warrants, sold last week several corporates. I am a net seller of Argentina right now because I know very well what is happening inside the central bank and they have a huge USD reserves problem which will end bad for both the sov and corporates fixed income.
    Feb 2, 2014. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Debt Analysis [View article]
    KMI debt profile improved substantially in the past years and the current Cash Flow from Operations has a better structural profile in 2012 than what is was in 2010 despite the current reported number is 0.12 vs. 0.81.

    I advice you to read the footnotes in the S1 filling when KMI became public. There is a footnote (I do not remember which one exactly) that explains why it is essential to look at the debt profile instead of the single metric.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch These 4 Stocks Before They Start Rising [View article]
    Never short these kind of stocks. Very hard to value technology stocks. Do not go short based on valuation!
    Mar 14, 2013. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment