Faisal Laljee

Faisal Laljee
Contributor since: 2006
Company: StocksandBlogs.com
I do look at charts. But give me one chart that looks good in this market.
Also, charts are good for hind sight. For example, I can point you to 5 different support levels for both Google and Apple that technicians can use between current levels and a 20% up or down from these levels. Bottom line - charts need to be used in conjuction with market psychology and fundamentals. You were quick to point the decline in Apple the day after I published the article. However, that had nothing to do with Apple. It had everything to do with the 500 point drop that took down every thing. Similarly the bounce back in Apple since is also attributable to the market bounce. How do your charts explain crashing through multiple support levels and breaking through multiple resistance levels all within 2 days? What happened to your trends? Use charts but I also advise the occasional common sense.
Yahoo Finance --> Key Statistics --> Short as a % of Float
One more thing to add. There is a company called Greendot which specializes in issuing Visa debit cards for students, minors, travelers and those that can't qualify for credit, yet want the security of plastic. Even H&R Block's rapid refund program issues your tax refund via a Visa debit card. I wonder when federal government tax refunds will be issued via Visa. Soon I presume.
Lloydt - Yes exactly right. Also, where companies like AT&T, Sprint, Symantec and others used to send out rebate checks, they are now sending out debit cards, which is again good for Visa.
Mathman - Priceline has zero competitive advantage you say? Do you know how bad Travelzoo's and Orbitz's earnings were? Do you see anyone else offer a bid price model? Did you notice that despite growing at 3 times the average S&P stock, it is priced cheaper than the average S&P index?
I own the stock for the reasons mentioned, not the other way round. At least I am putting my money where my mouth is.
Actually they do pass along the higher cost to the consumer by pricing their product higher. Not sure where the confusion is. They own the chickens and can charge as much as they want for their eggs.
You are right in that there are no analysts which is actually even better because it doesn't have a wide network of coverage yet. I meant to say fund managers and hedge fund operators who own the stock.
Eggs have 6g of protein. A dozen eggs will therefore have 84g of protein and costs $2. To get the same kind of protein from a chicken breast, fish or steak, you will spend $5-$15 depending on what you buy. Not sure if your question was a sarcastic one.
Actually gas is a lot more elastic than one might think but thats a separate argument. People don't buy cars at a 20% premium just to look good, yet Prius is one of the best selling cars these days. Surely you are not comparing food with transportation. If you have ten dollars in your pocket, would you drive somewhere or feed yourself first?
Ishortyou - you have got to be kidding if you think that consoles are dinosaurs. Being a PC and a console owner, I can assure you this is not the case.
If anything, games on a PC might become extinct soon, specially if you look at the next generation of gaming. Consoles are now starting to get game downloads and other applications formerly only available on the PC, such as Web browsers.
Incompatibility issues, risk of crashing your computer and graphics are a big reason why PC is not the gaming platform it used to be prior to the PS2/Xbox era.
Finally, are you kidding about PC's being cheaper? A decent gaming PC costs twice as much as an XBox 360 or PS3 console. The only thing you could argue is that PC Games are cheaper than console games but then again, most people exchange games with friends or rent it.
Yes I was very wrong as was anyone who bought any of the financials.
One thing to understand about the Saudi's is that they and the oil producing nations have it in their best interest to keep oil priced moderately high, but certainly not exhorbitant. I would think they want oil to be around $75 or so because its the sweet spot where they will keep making lots of money and governments around the world would be too passive to consider alternative sources too seriously. How often do you hear T Boone Pickens wanting to buy wind energy, coal and solar energy sources?
I do agree that we will get used to $140 per barrel, just like Iraqi's got used to Saddam, Afghanis got used to Taliban and we got used to Bush and his policies. But I am not sure if "getting used to something" is how we want to be.
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple stock drops a little. iPhone sales have got to be very weak in the 2nd quarter given that people would have been waiting for the new iPhone. Of course, once the new iPhone is released, sales will hit the 10 million unit mark easily before the end of the year, but then their guidance during the upcoming release is not expected to be very good given that they like to sandbag their numbers. I expect the stock to pull back after earnings.
I own CROX and UA. The disclosure was part of my post but somehow the SA editors might have missed it. You can check out the original date and post on my website at stocksandblogs.com
Incidentally, I added to my UA position today after the ridiculous downgrade by UBS.
Many investors pile into the Buffett owned to piggy back on his success. If he were suddenly not an investor in the rail stocks for example, I believe other investors would pull out as well. That does not change how great a company is, but it sure affects the stock price.
Do you own one?
How come you don't own one?
You will be down 5-10% from here before you break-even again.
Guys - I have been a fan of the Apple stock since it was in the teens some 3 years ago. I predicted it could hit $200 before year's end. I am simply suggesting two things:
1) if you owned the stock at the beginning of this year, you are up 70%. Don't be a pig. Take some profits. The stock is down almost 10% from where I recommended selling it earlier this week.
2) Consumer slowdown will affect everyone. Not just the poor and the middle-class.
3) Apple's products are awesome. I own 3 ipods myself. For the first time this year, I actually considered buying a MacBook. However, all this has been priced into the stock and its run of 1000% these last 3 years. However, the iPhone is not its best work. I have used it. The text messaging and picture mail features suck. The email functionality is comparable to Palm's - way behind RIM. Finally the internet connection is slow - behind RIM and PALM. Now i don't like the Palm stock here, and RIM is over-extended as well.
4) The surveys saythat it is selling above estimates. Who's estimates are they considering? Some analysts were conservative when they projected sales of the iPhone while others were over-exhuberant. Steve Jobs is not one to apologize. But he made a mistake and he apologized. He priced it too high. If you want to turn a blind eye and find solace in surveys you read, thats fine by me. Estimates for the iPhone were over-exaggerated, and so was the stock price based on the iPhone. Now that they are issuing a rebate, and cutting down the price, the stock needs to come down a little. Own the stock for all I care. Mark my words though - it will hit $120 before it hits $150.
5) For the technicians out there, the stock formed a perfect double-top.
This is my last response on the subject. If you read my posts on my site, you will know that I have been right on AAPL consistently. Please don't let your love for the product or the compay fool you into owning the stock. If your time horizon is longer than 2 years, and you don't mind short-term losses, you can own it.
I didn't say you should sell because of the price drop. I recommended taking some profits because of the consumer spending slowdown.
I don't think you've ever read anything I write. Please show me where I told you to sell SLB or DO. The only oil stocks I recommended selling were the oil refiners back in July. In the month following my recommendation, refiners dropped anywhere from 15-20%. Based on your false allegation, I believe responding to the iPhone part of your comment is not necessary.
Yes selling some of your stock is prudent if you are sitting on 70% gains since the start of this year. If you want to wait a year to make 30% more on this stock, with a short-term 15% downside risk, be my guest. You have been blinded by the love you have for Apple. As for blaming the mortgage crisis on the lenders 100%, I think you are dead wrong. Consumers are equally to blame. They refinance their homes and use the cash to buy silly toys like the iPhone, iPod and Plasma tv's. Thats ridiculous!
I didn't say they are in trouble. Just that they are not selling as many as they expected - hence the price drop. Name another apple product in recent memory that got such a big price cut less than 3 months after launching.
So are you saying that a decline in consumer spending will not affect sales of the most expensive phone AT&T has to offer?
Also, have you seen the slow internet connection, the lame text messaging and picture mail function on iPhone?
Don't forget that the Blackberry Curve will compete directly with the iPhone, and it has faster internet and push email technology, which high-end consumers demand.
Consider this - Apple has never dropped prices this drastically on any recent product. Macs and iPod's have held their prices despite competition from other PC makers and Sandisk and Creative's MP3 players. So why would they drop prices on the iPhone less than 3 months into the launch if they were selling really well?
As far as the stock price, the stock was up almost 70% this year as of yesterday. I recommended taking a little profit. At no point did I say to dump the stock completely.
I predicted that Apple would hit $200 by the end of this year 9 months ago. However, with the lower price of iPhone, there is short term weakness in the stock. Moreover, the mortgage and credit crunch will hit consumers sooner or later and that will curb discretionary spending. Please read the following posts to see how right I have been with Apple before you pass judgement.
I never said price cut means sales will slow. I said sales are slow, hence the price cut.
I am not suggesting he is lying. but do you really think he will ever say that he is displeased?
Yes the stock has quite a few reasons to continue its bull run or very few reasons not to continue its run. Sorry for the confusion.
I recently learnt that Apple does not use Synaptics technology.
That is exactly my state of mind - confusion. Look - oil had a double top at $78 level and so in the short-term, it is weak. However, even when oil was going up, most of the oil stocks, including refiners and producers were heading down. XOM, VLO etc. I thought the lower levels of production that XOM, CVX and COP reported, which affected their earnings negatively would cause them to invest in more drilling. So the only oil sector I like right now is oil services and drilling. I own RIG - in fact, I bought it 10% ago when it dipped to cover the gap it had formed on the GSF news. I still own it and my hope is that it does not violate the $96 level of support. At the time of the post, the stock was dangerously close to support and that is why, I advised caution. If it violates support, I would sell it and buy it back in the 80's.
The stock did go down to $22 pre-market when the earnings came out yesterday, but the earnings call was optimistic and therefore, the stock recovered to $26 at market open. The company signed up 7 new power plants, of which, only 2 were reflected in these earnings. The remaining 5 will show up in their earnings for Q3 & Q4 and the China expansion has just gotten under way.
Jim - I don't believe I am late. We are in the 3rd or 4th inning and while a pull back is in order, these are all good stocks for the long run.
As mentioned in my disclosure above, I do NOT own any of the homebuilders. Therefore, my viewpoint is completely unbiased. USG is also considered a real-estate stock. Do you consider Warren Buffet a fool for buying a 17% stake in this company?
I don't disagree with you about foreclosures. If you follow my past posts, I have been talking about the Mortgage meltdown for a while. See stocksandblogs.com/200...
However, stocks and the companies they represent do not trade lock and step. I recommended CFC back in April and the stock is up since my recommendation. In fact, it was up as much as 25% after I wrote a bullish piece on it and currently sits 10% above the recommnded level. See stocksandblogs.com/200...
I also recommended MDC Holdings as indicated above and the stock is still up from the levels I recommended it even though housing is down.
-- Faisal Laljee