Seeking Alpha

Faisal Laljee

 
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  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    Do you own one?
    Sep 7 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    How come you don't own one?
    Sep 7 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    You will be down 5-10% from here before you break-even again.
    Sep 7 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    Guys - I have been a fan of the Apple stock since it was in the teens some 3 years ago. I predicted it could hit $200 before year's end. I am simply suggesting two things:

    1) if you owned the stock at the beginning of this year, you are up 70%. Don't be a pig. Take some profits. The stock is down almost 10% from where I recommended selling it earlier this week.

    2) Consumer slowdown will affect everyone. Not just the poor and the middle-class.

    3) Apple's products are awesome. I own 3 ipods myself. For the first time this year, I actually considered buying a MacBook. However, all this has been priced into the stock and its run of 1000% these last 3 years. However, the iPhone is not its best work. I have used it. The text messaging and picture mail features suck. The email functionality is comparable to Palm's - way behind RIM. Finally the internet connection is slow - behind RIM and PALM. Now i don't like the Palm stock here, and RIM is over-extended as well.

    4) The surveys saythat it is selling above estimates. Who's estimates are they considering? Some analysts were conservative when they projected sales of the iPhone while others were over-exhuberant. Steve Jobs is not one to apologize. But he made a mistake and he apologized. He priced it too high. If you want to turn a blind eye and find solace in surveys you read, thats fine by me. Estimates for the iPhone were over-exaggerated, and so was the stock price based on the iPhone. Now that they are issuing a rebate, and cutting down the price, the stock needs to come down a little. Own the stock for all I care. Mark my words though - it will hit $120 before it hits $150.

    5) For the technicians out there, the stock formed a perfect double-top.

    This is my last response on the subject. If you read my posts on my site, you will know that I have been right on AAPL consistently. Please don't let your love for the product or the compay fool you into owning the stock. If your time horizon is longer than 2 years, and you don't mind short-term losses, you can own it.
    Sep 7 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    I didn't say you should sell because of the price drop. I recommended taking some profits because of the consumer spending slowdown.
    Sep 6 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    I don't think you've ever read anything I write. Please show me where I told you to sell SLB or DO. The only oil stocks I recommended selling were the oil refiners back in July. In the month following my recommendation, refiners dropped anywhere from 15-20%. Based on your false allegation, I believe responding to the iPhone part of your comment is not necessary.
    Sep 6 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    Yes selling some of your stock is prudent if you are sitting on 70% gains since the start of this year. If you want to wait a year to make 30% more on this stock, with a short-term 15% downside risk, be my guest. You have been blinded by the love you have for Apple. As for blaming the mortgage crisis on the lenders 100%, I think you are dead wrong. Consumers are equally to blame. They refinance their homes and use the cash to buy silly toys like the iPhone, iPod and Plasma tv's. Thats ridiculous!

    Sep 6 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    I didn't say they are in trouble. Just that they are not selling as many as they expected - hence the price drop. Name another apple product in recent memory that got such a big price cut less than 3 months after launching.
    Sep 6 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    So are you saying that a decline in consumer spending will not affect sales of the most expensive phone AT&T has to offer?

    Also, have you seen the slow internet connection, the lame text messaging and picture mail function on iPhone?

    Don't forget that the Blackberry Curve will compete directly with the iPhone, and it has faster internet and push email technology, which high-end consumers demand.
    Sep 6 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    Consider this - Apple has never dropped prices this drastically on any recent product. Macs and iPod's have held their prices despite competition from other PC makers and Sandisk and Creative's MP3 players. So why would they drop prices on the iPhone less than 3 months into the launch if they were selling really well?

    As far as the stock price, the stock was up almost 70% this year as of yesterday. I recommended taking a little profit. At no point did I say to dump the stock completely.

    I predicted that Apple would hit $200 by the end of this year 9 months ago. However, with the lower price of iPhone, there is short term weakness in the stock. Moreover, the mortgage and credit crunch will hit consumers sooner or later and that will curb discretionary spending. Please read the following posts to see how right I have been with Apple before you pass judgement.

    stocksandblogs.com/200...

    stocksandblogs.com/200...

    stocksandblogs.com/200...

    stocksandblogs.com/200...
    Sep 6 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    I never said price cut means sales will slow. I said sales are slow, hence the price cut.
    Sep 6 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Price Drop Is A Bad Sign [View article]
    I am not suggesting he is lying. but do you really think he will ever say that he is displeased?
    Sep 6 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Begin Taking Significant PC Market Share: Barron's (AAPL) [View article]
    I agree with Thomas. Anyone who believes that Microsoft has an Ipod killer is kidding himself. Microsoft has never produced hardware that has killed anything. Besides, people hate Microsoft for their software. I expect Mac's to gain a lot more market share a lot quicker than predicted by Barron's. In fact, I believe they will have 10% of the PC market share by 2008 (as opposed to 15% in 10 years as prediced by Barrons).
    Jul 17 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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