Comments on Ferdinand E. Banks' articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/ferdinand-e-banks/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-741099 741099 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:33:12 -0500
I am very late to this article and the interesting comment stream. I posted a very short note (by your standards) today on trouble in the clean coal quest seekingalpha.com/artic...

BTW - I also have a degree from IIT. I was in the shadow of Comisky park, the El and the RR tracks from fall semester 1959 to spring semester 1965. Changed thesis topics after first two years and took three years of research to get the new thesis done. I missed the deadlines for June, 1965 graduation, so I show up on the January, 1966 program.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-700789 700789 Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:10:35 -0400
The facts are:

1.China is opening a new electric generation plant PER WEEK until 2013, 50% of them oil related and the rest in oil derivates.

2. The amount of cars from now to 2030 will duplicate in the world, 99% of them using oil products as fuel.

3. Southamerica will be in a similar pattern but they will arrive to same proportions 15 years later.

4. Airline industry will expand 100% in the next 12 years, most of the growth in Asia.

5. International commerce (and sea shipping) will double between 8 and 11 years depending who you read.

...and so on, problem is that we need huge amounts of new energy...and the planet is not able to supply it under the current technology.

New technologies, yes, when, how and where, and is the only way out...if we wnat to survive in a social order...more less.

Regards.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-699498 699498 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 23:42:17 -0400
If we do wind up behind the Eight Ball, NG Production here has to escalate fast and It will not save us by itself. LNG shipments will play a Huge role. Which is why I've invested in CQP. Take a look at the Chart of TGP. Pure play in the LNG Tanker area. Earninngs going down, stock going up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698705 698705 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:15:35 -0400 Here is the link:
www.businessdayonline....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698668 698668 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:47:45 -0400
"And that includes all technologies, electric, hybrid, biodiesel, ethanol, but also propane and natural gas."

That statement of yours Is My energy stance: Multi-fuel engines, millions of them. That way, not only can you use the existing infrastructure but you will continue research into all of the other categories at the same time.

We should have learned our lesson from the 70's and then 2008, continued dependance on any one type of Fuel will only lead to disaster. NG is a Fossil Fuel and is Not Renewable.

If the Projected reserves turn out to be "projected but unprovable", then what? Not only do you have a worthless infrastructure but you will injure millions of homeowners who depend on NG for Heat/cool.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698574 698574 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:46:05 -0400 finance.yahoo.com/news...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698532 698532 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:11:20 -0400
So Statisticians will be employed to make projections based on what has been "discovered" to date. Bingo, whacko, huge reserves.

Oil Companies around the world have learned the Hard Way, a formation is just a formation until you actually discover Oil.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698146 698146 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 06:55:05 -0400
Maybe there is, and maybe there isn't; but when I start looking at reserves again, it will be reserves of natural gas in the US. The supposed increase in that country does not look right to me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698099 698099 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:39:58 -0400
I am Impressed. Every Oil hole in the ground is going to Peak eventually, when more water than oil comes up, but enhanced recovery techniques can prolong the shelf life of the oil recoverable.

As far as I'm concerned, There is enough oil, of some sort, but its not going to be extracted/refined fast enough to meet demand.

Especially if the World's economies come out of their "Recessions" simultaneously. Last year's move was just a prelude to where it will go next.

The thing that should worry everyone is that Opec's reserve estimates have remained unchanged for decades.

Gimme a break.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698091 698091 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 03:36:42 -0400
Former American soldier and engineer for the US Navy, first in his graduate school class, great teacher, leading academic energy economist...sounds to me like a losing hand if I want to teach in the Big PX.

By the way, on this peak thing, there is no place in this or another world where the DISCOVERY of oil peaked without output peaking at some point in the future. The global discovery of oil peaked about 40 years ago, and so ladies and gentlemen that is it. As I pointed out out however, if the oil price can reach $147/b, then the peak is no longer important. The bad news is already here. Study that first section in my paper, memorize it, and it might take you a long way socially and professionally some day. But NOT if you talk to the CEO of an oil company, because they want you and the rest of the TV audience to believe that oil will never peak. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698063 698063 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 01:29:54 -0400
There are some suggestions that one solution would be to make further improvements on already existing sources of energy such as nuclear energy. At present, nuclear power supplies only 16% of the world's energy. Certainly a clean source of fuel like nuclear energy can be exploited further, if its harmful effects (radiation) can be controlled.

Our traditional sources of energy - coal, oil, natural gas - are all limited in quantity as they are non-renewable. Further, these sources are very hard on the environment as they emit harmful green house gases that are one of the leading causes of global warming. Unlike these sources, nuclear power is completely emission-free and renewable. Nuclear power plants do not produce any air-pollutants or greenhouse gases.

The Westinghouse Electric Company recently introduced what can be described as the safest and most economically viable nuclear power plant in the world, called the AP1000. This is one of the biggest developments in nuclear energy in years and has given a lot of hope to several nations to finally get access to safe nuclear power.

This reactor, the AP1000, has been based on more than 20 years of research and development by the Westinghouse Company, which has spent countless millions perfecting and improving the major components used in current nuclear plants.

Essentially, the company used the established technology as a starting point, innovating and improving whatever technology already existed to create the world's largest and safest power plant that can offer competitively priced, low polluting power to the world.

This innovation by the Westinghouse Company in the design and production of the AP1000 shows that alongside researching new sources of energy, existing sources should also be perfected to extract the most out of them.
----------------------...
Money without intelligence is like a car without a road.
www.intelligentinvesti...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-698033 698033 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:10:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697993 697993 Ferdinand: Your comment is entirely unfair and unjustified. > > That you "believe" you're right, doesn't mean I can't believe in > my opinion. Basically, your aimless article is your opinion, on a > very controversial subject, which deserves a lot of insight. We can > all learn from differing opinions. We can all learn from communal > digging for what is the real truth about peak oil. > > Now I know why your old boss dumped you without notice. You lack > class.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:22:35 -0400

On Sep 30 03:23 PM Mayascribe wrote:

> Ferdinand: Your comment is entirely unfair and unjustified.
>
> That you "believe" you're right, doesn't mean I can't believe in
> my opinion. Basically, your aimless article is your opinion, on a
> very controversial subject, which deserves a lot of insight. We can
> all learn from differing opinions. We can all learn from communal
> digging for what is the real truth about peak oil.
>
> Now I know why your old boss dumped you without notice. You lack
> class.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697991 697991 Need to work on your conclusion. You raise a lot of good points but > don't come together at the end with a strong take-away. > > Discussions of energy always bring me back to the "threshold of elasticity" > concept. "Threshold of elasticity" is defined as "The price point > at which a good which was intitially thought to have inelastic demand > characteristics begins to show significant signs of increasing demand > elasticity." What I mean by that is oil will not go up forever. Natural > gas, solar and wind, among others will be more heavily relied upon > to meet energy needs as oil prices continue to increase. Eventually, > conservation will become a necessity of human existence. We will > always have some oil, but at some point in the future oil, and in > turn internal combustion engines won't be largely reserved for critical > (emergency and military) uses. > > Now, if you don't mind while I don my tinfoil/salad colander hat > I'll get to the really crazy part: Human society may eventually revert > to a manner of living more akin to the pre Industrial Revolution > age, albeit with the advantage of a lot more information. The industrial > revolution may come to be seen as an exciting, albeit unsustainable > phase of human existence.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:20:23 -0400

On Sep 29 12:15 PM LilBob wrote:

> Need to work on your conclusion. You raise a lot of good points but
> don't come together at the end with a strong take-away.
>
> Discussions of energy always bring me back to the "threshold of elasticity"
> concept. "Threshold of elasticity" is defined as "The price point
> at which a good which was intitially thought to have inelastic demand
> characteristics begins to show significant signs of increasing demand
> elasticity." What I mean by that is oil will not go up forever. Natural
> gas, solar and wind, among others will be more heavily relied upon
> to meet energy needs as oil prices continue to increase. Eventually,
> conservation will become a necessity of human existence. We will
> always have some oil, but at some point in the future oil, and in
> turn internal combustion engines won't be largely reserved for critical
> (emergency and military) uses.
>
> Now, if you don't mind while I don my tinfoil/salad colander hat
> I'll get to the really crazy part: Human society may eventually revert
> to a manner of living more akin to the pre Industrial Revolution
> age, albeit with the advantage of a lot more information. The industrial
> revolution may come to be seen as an exciting, albeit unsustainable
> phase of human existence.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697795 697795 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:22:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697729 697729 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 20:25:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697358 697358 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:58:59 -0400 seekingalpha.com/user/... and Jevons paradox too. These factors make the situation even more acute that you brought out. Your article was very good though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697290 697290 I've always hated debating peak oil issues because there are so many > different theories and so many things we simply don't know, like > where did Brazil's sub-salt oil come from and why do the salt domes > of the gulf coast appear to be recharging themselves. In the end > I think it's easier to think in terms of "peak cheap oil" because > that's an event you can date in the late 90s and we're never going > back to the $0.249 gasoline of my youth.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:56:47 -0400

On Sep 30 10:52 AM John Petersen wrote:

> I've always hated debating peak oil issues because there are so many
> different theories and so many things we simply don't know, like
> where did Brazil's sub-salt oil come from and why do the salt domes
> of the gulf coast appear to be recharging themselves. In the end
> I think it's easier to think in terms of "peak cheap oil" because
> that's an event you can date in the late 90s and we're never going
> back to the $0.249 gasoline of my youth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697275 697275 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:43:35 -0400
"This looks like a good area, lets drill here." came and went. "Hopefully", so will the realities that accompany New Enhanced recovery systems.

"And by the way, I was FIRST in my thermodynamics class. Drop into Illinois Tech (in Chicago) and tell them I said that you could have a peek at my thermo grade. So, I ain't completely hopeless am I? Sep 30 02:53 PM"

How many years ago do I have to look, Illinois Tech? If it had been from IIT, I would have been impressed. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697245 697245 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:23:59 -0400
That you "believe" you're right, doesn't mean I can't believe in my opinion. Basically, your aimless article is your opinion, on a very controversial subject, which deserves a lot of insight. We can all learn from differing opinions. We can all learn from communal digging for what is the real truth about peak oil.

Now I know why your old boss dumped you without notice. You lack class. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697233 697233 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:11:55 -0400
"although other people in this forum have equally valid arguments. What I don't want to hear is that there is plenty of oil in the US or somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, and besides OPEC has fantastic amounts of reserves which they will have to sell before oil goes out of style, etc etc.. Sep 30 10:31 AM"

Nothing can change the mind of a person whose mind is "predisposed".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697220 697220 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:00:05 -0400
BP believes...Brazil said....you left out Madonna and Oprah.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697212 697212 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:53:26 -0400
And by the way, I was FIRST in my thermodynamics class. Drop into Illinois Tech (in Chicago) and tell them I said that you could have a peek at my thermo grade. So, I ain't completely hopeless am I?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697200 697200 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:42:41 -0400
Check out www247wallst.com

There you will read that BP believes it has 200 billion barrels of untapped oil above the Artic Circle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697187 697187 Read it and weep, peak oilers: > > "Brazil’s so-called pre-salt oil region may hold between 25 billion > and 100 billion barrels of oil, the country’s cabinet chief said. > " > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=alV_xoYg185c#]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:29:52 -0400
In 2008 the world used 27bn barrels of oil (www.eia.doe.gov/aer/tx...). An extra year or two is nice but does not discredit peak oil.


On Sep 30 02:07 PM Shale Gas wrote:

> Read it and weep, peak oilers:
>
> "Brazil’s so-called pre-salt oil region may hold between 25 billion
> and 100 billion barrels of oil, the country’s cabinet chief said.
> "
>
> www.bloomberg.com/apps...#]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697186 697186 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:29:08 -0400
In 2008 the world used 27bn barrels of oil (www.eia.doe.gov/aer/tx...). An extra year or two is nice but does not discredit peak oil.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697154 697154 The goofy notion that fossil fuels are so limited as to reach exhaustion > in any near future is akin to Thomas Malthus concluding that the > world would exhaust its food supplies in short order.The U.S., alone, has the world's largest coal reserves, more than > enough to power the entire country for hundreds of years. > > The U.S., also, has vast natural gas supplies, again enough for many > generations of clean power. > > And, let's not even talk about nuclear because its power potential > is virtually unlimited. > ]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:15:07 -0400 You are right on point. We have enough energy reserves in the form of natural gas and shale oil to remain energy independent for many moons, if allowed to develop them. The professional pols in Washington are only interested in moving more money from the private sector to their control, where they can redirect the wealth to those who put them there in the first place.


On Sep 29 01:45 PM Tack wrote:

> The goofy notion that fossil fuels are so limited as to reach exhaustion
> in any near future is akin to Thomas Malthus concluding that the
> world would exhaust its food supplies in short order.The U.S., alone, has the world's largest coal reserves, more than
> enough to power the entire country for hundreds of years.
>
> The U.S., also, has vast natural gas supplies, again enough for many
> generations of clean power.
>
> And, let's not even talk about nuclear because its power potential
> is virtually unlimited.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697137 697137 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:07:11 -0400
"Brazil’s so-called pre-salt oil region may hold between 25 billion and 100 billion barrels of oil, the country’s cabinet chief said. "

www.bloomberg.com/apps...#]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697131 697131 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:05:47 -0400 Is the first article i read from your column finding it quite interesting, going to fundamental points that others ignore, you already marked in my favorites to follow.

Now a couple o f comments in your appreciations :

1. 9,000 million living people trying to live in a first world services and products environment is a fact that will define S.XXI, how to handle that and keep the planet going is the question.

It is clear that industrialization and huge use of energy (in the future basically electricity ) in a sustainable mode is the only way to go...and there are points of hope in this view.

2. Here are some:
Biology, reducing illness, reducing fecundity,reducing genetic problems in population almost to Zero (as it was with vaccines and the diseases related), designing people....yes I know....
Energy, Nuclear 3.0 and 4.0, small nukebatts, uses of radioactive materials other than uranium-heavy water (which was up because military reasons), low energy hydrolysis and a long list of biofuels and sustainable techniques (some base in algae and carbon dioxide from coal plants), low cost desalinization etc.

Democracy is something that perhaps will not be so appreciated in 60 years time, and if we survive the S. XXI seems that we will make it in the long term......cheer up!.

Regards ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163934-energy-myths-for-the-21st-century?source=feed#comment-697014 697014 I've always hated debating peak oil issues because there are so many > different theories and so many things we simply don't know, like > where did Brazil's sub-salt oil come from and why do the salt domes > of the gulf coast appear to be recharging themselves. Ever hear of subduction? Most oil, NG is made from sinking or subducted by plate tectonics earth/biomass deep into the earth and reacted by heat, pressure and possible metal acting as catalysts to make HC's. Then it floats up and some if caught by salt domes forming oil, NG fields. They have found subducted plate slabs 100+ miles below the surface by sound/energy waves. In the end > I think it's easier to think in terms of "peak cheap oil" because > that's an event you can date in the late 90s and we're never going > back to the $0.249 gasoline of my youth. While true we will never run out of oil, just oil that costs too much to recover, which really is the same thing. The thing is at $150/bbl oil many other fuels become cheap.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:54:44 -0400
> I've always hated debating peak oil issues because there are so many
> different theories and so many things we simply don't know, like
> where did Brazil's sub-salt oil come from and why do the salt domes
> of the gulf coast appear to be recharging themselves.

Ever hear of subduction? Most oil, NG is made from sinking or subducted by plate tectonics earth/biomass deep into the earth and reacted by heat, pressure and possible metal acting as catalysts to make HC's. Then it floats up and some if caught by salt domes forming oil, NG fields. They have found subducted plate slabs 100+ miles below the surface by sound/energy waves.


In the end
> I think it's easier to think in terms of "peak cheap oil" because
> that's an event you can date in the late 90s and we're never going
> back to the $0.249 gasoline of my youth.

While true we will never run out of oil, just oil that costs too much to recover, which really is the same thing.

The thing is at $150/bbl oil many other fuels become cheap.]]>