Wind Power: What We Can Learn from Denmark [View article]
I want to thank you Tom Andersen for your observation: the price of electricity in Denmark might be the highest in the industrial world. Sure, Denmark is a wonderful country, but instead of harassing Sweden until they closed the reactors at Malmö, the government of that country should have asked them to move those reactors to another part of Sweden, and to sell them more power.
There is something important here. If the Scandinavian countries that are fairly similar in culture cannot work together where electricity and environment are concerned, how will it be possible to construct a joint energy-environmental policy with the rest of Europe - or better, with the rest of the world as the know-nothings in the Swedish, Danish and Norwegian media think is possible.
Oil Guesses Are Wrong Again, Contango Grows [View article]
Hmm. Georealist and User have some important comments, even if I have a problem accepting that contango is "normal" for the oil market. More important though, this article is valuable from a pedagogical point of view.
Reasons to Give Thanks for Capitalism [View article]
I checked your background Professor Dr Perry, but it didn't tell me why d you felt that it makes sense to write this article at the present time? Better change your television preferences from afternoon soap operas and Fox News before you say something really off-the-wall. In case there is a misunderstanding, let me say that capitalism is great when it works, but it doesn't happen to be working at the present time. So, since there isn't an alternative, it needs to be adjusted, but I think that we would all be better off if we let somebody else turn the knobs and pull the levers besides you.
Bernanke Admits to Misjudging the Mortgage Crisis [View article]
When asked about oil, Bernanke said that the futures market indicated that there would be plenty of it around in the future, meaning about the middle of the next decade. But since the oil futures market has hardly any liquidity after 6 months or so, I think that where the most important commodity in the world is concerned, we can ignore the smartness of the smartest guy in the room..
Oil Price Decline Bad News for Future Supplies [View article]
Makes all the sense in the world to me, with the exception of the $90/b estimate and the talk about 2030. I thought that only the IEA knew exactly what was going to happen in 2030, which is a good reason for stopping your conjecture about 15 years earlier.
Interesting and useful contribution, and also something to remember when the economy moves out of the dumps and the price of oil starts moving toward $100/b again.
It's easy to say that speculation is the cause of the big rise and fall of the oil price, but proving it is another matter. On the contrary, I never have any difficulty proving that speculation is not the reason, but unfortunately for anyone to understand the proof they need a background in elementary finance theory or, even better, an open mind.
The chief economist of a major investment bank tried to explain to me that although supply and demand was the largest factor in the price movement mentioned above, speculation played a big role. To back this claim he gave me some information on 'open interest' in the oil futures market. Unfortunately, the ratio of open interest to physical supply and demand proves just the opposite, but I saw no reason to belabor the issue. I can mention however that if one of my students made the wrong claim after one of my killer lectures, he or she would find themselves facing a failing grade if they didn't straighten up.
And by the way truth seeker, you have taken something that is very simple and made it complicated, but you are not completely wrong. .
Well Socreteazz, I am an expert on the oil market, and I remember when writers on Forbes were trying to make Steve Forbes happy by agreeing with him that the oil price was going into the tank. In one article in Forbes an author agreed with Mike Lynch that the oil price was going to fall below $20/b.
As for oil prices below $50-60/b spelling disaster for one country or another, that doesn't make any sense at all to me, because I can remember when the OPEC countries were hoping against hope that the oil price would reach $28/b - which was the upper limit of what they defined as their optimal range.
Moreover, it is NOT a bubble or speculation that took the oil price to above $100/b. It was, as this year's Nobel prize winner in economics confirmed, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, although speculation might have been somewhere in the picture, though not nearly as much as certain people believe. And it was supply and demand that moved it to its present position, and will take it back up when the global macroeconomy is put back in order - whenever that might be.
By the way, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles are an important part of the transportation future, but they won't be in time to keep the oil price from escalating again after the business cycle turns up. To bring that about Michael Moore almost has the right idea, which is a Manhattan-TYPE project.
The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3) [View article]
If you think that Keynes is bad, then you should have had an opportunity to listen to Milton Friedman. His speech at the 100th anniversary of the Nobel awards could only be described as fruitcake, and it left the real scientists who were there wondering if they had stumbled into a crank colony. The most grotesque part of that scene however was the presence of at least one of the most brilliant analytical American economists, who accepted to be a part of Friedman's public. No wonder Keynes said that "economics is an easy subject that is difficult". He meant difficult to understand why some of its practitioners are completely without shame.
Mexico's Hedge Signals Bottom of Oil Price Drop [View article]
Interesting contribution, but with Cantarell declining, why would the Mexican decision makers waste their time with puts. Why not just hop a plane to....and explain to them what it takes to make life sweet and mellow.
Uptick rule? Do you mean the crazy idea that Steve Forbes is trying to sell - or the opposite. In any event, where oil is concerned, Mr Forbes' advice is of little or no value, although his publication if great.
Blood from a Stone and Oil from Shale [View article]
I wrote a book a couple of centuries ago called 'The Political Economy of Oil', in which I put in a good word for shale. Shortly after its publication I attended a small conference in Vienna in which I informed the people in the expensive seats that shale was just what the doctor ordered to keep the oil wolf away from the door. A couple of industry people from the US then took it upon themselves to straighten me out on that subject, Their arguments were so logical that whenever I hear people talking about getting large amounts of oil from shale, I'm forced to wonder just what kind of comic book they have been reading. ..
Cap-and-Trade Can Cut Emissions Without Major Economic Hit [View article]
scfranklin94, what a beautiful observation!. Yes, the purpose of cap-and-trade is to rob the ratepayers. But I can understand the enthusiasm of the TV commentators and viewers for this scam. Turn to any elementary book on economics and its author will assure you that cap-and-trade is the way to go, which is why I told my students that anyone reading and repeating that nonsense was assured of a failing grade.
What about the precious work of the Center for Energy and Environment at MIT? One of their bosses was at a conference on electric deregulation that I attended in Milan, and the only thing that saved him was his American passport. However where cap-and-trade is concerned I take no prisoners. Those MIT dunces have been richly rewarded with research grants to discover that cap-and-trade is scientifically sound, and...surprise...this is the conclusion they reached. And why have they received these research grants? Answer, because the big winners in this farce are the brokers and 'middlemen', and they sell cap-and-trade and to get others to sell it..
T. Boone Pickens: Always Be Selling [View article]
Mr Pickens sounds wonderful. Of course, his type is a dime a dozen here in Sweden. The last prime minister is a perfect example, since he declared nuclear energy "obsolete". My favorite Boone story though is how he offered a million dollars to anyone who could prove that the 'Swift Boat captains' were wrong about John Kerry, which cost the United States another four years of George Bush.
What is he after anyway? I'm tempted to say another billion or two, although I'm tired of finding out bad things about the greed of the rich.
Is Mexico on Its Way to Becoming an Oil Importer? [View article]
Short but very useful, except for the thing about Mexico becoming a failed state. There is a lot of talent in that country, and what they need is a government that can organize it.
Wind Power: What We Can Learn from Denmark [View article]
There is something important here. If the Scandinavian countries that are fairly similar in culture cannot work together where electricity and environment are concerned, how will it be possible to construct a joint energy-environmental policy with the rest of Europe - or better, with the rest of the world as the know-nothings in the Swedish, Danish and Norwegian media think is possible.
Oil Guesses Are Wrong Again, Contango Grows [View article]
Reasons to Give Thanks for Capitalism [View article]
(Professor Dr) Ferdinand E. Banks
Top Turkeys of 2008 [View article]
Bernanke Admits to Misjudging the Mortgage Crisis [View article]
Oil Price Decline Bad News for Future Supplies [View article]
The GDP Effect of Lower Oil Prices [View article]
How Low Can Crude Oil and Gas Go? [View article]
The chief economist of a major investment bank tried to explain to me that although supply and demand was the largest factor in the price movement mentioned above, speculation played a big role. To back this claim he gave me some information on 'open interest' in the oil futures market. Unfortunately, the ratio of open interest to physical supply and demand proves just the opposite, but I saw no reason to belabor the issue. I can mention however that if one of my students made the wrong claim after one of my killer lectures, he or she would find themselves facing a failing grade if they didn't straighten up.
And by the way truth seeker, you have taken something that is very simple and made it complicated, but you are not completely wrong. .
How Low Can Crude Oil and Gas Go? [View article]
As for oil prices below $50-60/b spelling disaster for one country or another, that doesn't make any sense at all to me, because I can remember when the OPEC countries were hoping against hope that the oil price would reach $28/b - which was the upper limit of what they defined as their optimal range.
Moreover, it is NOT a bubble or speculation that took the oil price to above $100/b. It was, as this year's Nobel prize winner in economics confirmed, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, although speculation might have been somewhere in the picture, though not nearly as much as certain people believe. And it was supply and demand that moved it to its present position, and will take it back up when the global macroeconomy is put back in order - whenever that might be.
By the way, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles are an important part of the transportation future, but they won't be in time to keep the oil price from escalating again after the business cycle turns up. To bring that about Michael Moore almost has the right idea, which is a Manhattan-TYPE project.
The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3) [View article]
Mexico's Hedge Signals Bottom of Oil Price Drop [View article]
Uptick rule? Do you mean the crazy idea that Steve Forbes is trying to sell - or the opposite. In any event, where oil is concerned, Mr Forbes' advice is of little or no value, although his publication if great.
Blood from a Stone and Oil from Shale [View article]
Cap-and-Trade Can Cut Emissions Without Major Economic Hit [View article]
What about the precious work of the Center for Energy and Environment at MIT? One of their bosses was at a conference on electric deregulation that I attended in Milan, and the only thing that saved him was his American passport. However where cap-and-trade is concerned I take no prisoners. Those MIT dunces have been richly rewarded with research grants to discover that cap-and-trade is scientifically sound, and...surprise...this is the conclusion they reached. And why have they received these research grants? Answer, because the big winners in this farce are the brokers and 'middlemen', and they sell cap-and-trade and to get others to sell it..
T. Boone Pickens: Always Be Selling [View article]
What is he after anyway? I'm tempted to say another billion or two, although I'm tired of finding out bad things about the greed of the rich.
Is Mexico on Its Way to Becoming an Oil Importer? [View article]