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  • The Religion Of Doom And Gloom [View article]
    Jim Puplava's Perfect Financial Storm series was written during the 2000-2001 tech bubble peak. Yes, it was doom-and-gloom and yes it was very engaging. However, most importantly, it was written when it should have been. Here's the archive for your reference:
    Aug 18 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflating The Stock Market - When Trillions Of Dollars Chase Fewer Stocks [View article]
    @HighStakesInvestor, do you mind posting a link to the MarketWatch article?
    Jun 20 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Pettis: Hard Commodity Prices Will Continue To Fall With Decade-Long Chinese Slowdown [View article]
    Actually, Michael is not just an academic, but has a well established history in the financial sector. Also, to be fair, his predictions regarding hard commodities over the last several years turned out to be true.
    May 27 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    If you want to follow my work more closely, I now publish under my name rather than Financial Sense.


    May 20 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    In 1980 the USD Index was at 87 and by 1985 it rallied to 160. During that time unemployment in the US (U3 stats) fell from a peak of 10.8% to 7.2%.

    GDP also went from a -2.6% YOY in 1982 to 8.5% in 1984. Go back more than a half century to 1960 and you will find that the highest YOY real GDP print came in 1984 (tied with 1965) at 8.5%, a period that saw the sharpest USD rally.
    Apr 25 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    While I can't insert charts into the comments section, there is a strong correlation between the USD Index and GDP growth rates that existed from 1965 through 2001. In general, a stronger USD led to greater GDP growth which was not all based on luxury goods spending.
    Apr 25 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    I do agree. Higher yields in the US will attract more foreign capital, particularly if foreign countries are trying to weaken their currencies relative to the USD they would want to buy US assets and if our rates are higher there would be more justification for foreign countries to purchase our debt.
    Apr 25 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    Think of the US economy in terms of a pie. Nearly 70% of that pie is consumption while exports make up 13.6% of GDP. A strong USD helps to reduce inflation which boosts discretionary spending and helps corporate profit margins. The boost to discretionary spending helps consumption which is 68% of GDP.

    A weak USD helps make our exports attractive and boosts that 13.6% portion of the GDP pie while hurting discretionary spending and hurting the 68% of the pie. Think back to the 1990s when we had a strong USD policy and then the early part of the 2000s when we had a weak USD, which period saw stronger growth?
    Apr 24 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was in contractionary territory in the fall of 2011 at 49.3. After the ECB printed global growth picked up and the PMI moved back into expansion territory (> 50) and rose to 51.3 in the Spring of 2012.

    Because the USD was one of the strongest currencies from late 2011 to early 2012, the US experienced stronger non-inflationary growth while Europe, due to a weaker Euro, saw inflation pick up more than the US with their real GDP coming in weaker than the US.
    Apr 24 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    Gold hit nearly $2K/oz in the fall of 2011 as fears over a Euro breakup surged. Once Europe printed the Euro fell and the USD rallied nearly 16% into its 2012 high. As the USD rallied due to Euro weakness commodities (priced in USD) fell. The CRB Commodity Index fell nearly 30% from its 2011 high to its 2012 low.
    Apr 24 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    Once fears over a Euro breakout subsided in the fall of 2011, equity markets globally rallied until the spring of 2012. I expect a similar outcome should Europe print again.
    Apr 24 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pierre Lassonde: Gold Moving Sideways, Very Bullish On Natural Gas [View article]
    It's easy to spin inflation any way you want by picking which commodities are happening to rise or fall over any time period, i.e. the last week, month, etc. In general, however, most broad-based commodity indexes (never mind the CPI), have been in a multi-year decline since 2011 with global growth concerns. Copper is a perfect example. Agricultural commodities, particularly meat, grains, and coffee, are bucking the downtrend not because of inflation, but because of supply issues/constraints with large droughts in the U.S. and Brazil (in the case of coffee). As SanDiegoNonSurfer points out, oil prices have been flat (actually lower) since 2011 as well. Gold, well, that's a whole different story!
    Apr 14 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Further Downside May Be Ahead, Though Long-Term Trend Still Intact [View article]
    I use SMA's, and use the 20d-SMA for the short-term (daily) outlook, the 50d-SMA for the intermediate-term (weekly) outlook, and the 200d-SMA for the long-term (monthly) outlook.
    Apr 14 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technician: No Signs Of A Market Top; Use Pullbacks As Buying Opportunities [View article]
    The market's long-term trend, momentum, and participation levels still remain in bullish territory and are not reflective of a major top. Of the 14 major market tops studied by Lowry's from 1929 to the 2000 tech bubble, the average percentage of stocks making new highs at the very peak was less than 6%. We are not close to that level of deterioration on a historical basis to justify this as the peak. For more information, please see the following article highlighting this study:
    Apr 10 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philly Fed Leading Economic Index Suggests Expansion Across 100% Of The Nation [View article]
    Not all of our articles get published on SA. If you want to see our feed you can use the following:
    Mar 28 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment