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  • Felix Zulauf: Asset Prices Will Continue To Inflate As China Joins The Party Next [View article]
    Dan Wantrobski of Janney Capital Markets also made some really great comments yesterday about why he doesn't think we are yet at a market top. You can read his comments and see his research on IPOs, buybacks, and M&A activity here:
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart Of The Day: Financial Stress And Major Market Peaks [View article]
    The financial stress index shown in this article is a composite of composites using various Federal Reserve regional bank financial stress indices overlaid by the S&P 500 over the same time frame. The units in the vertical axis pertain only to financial stress levels and not to the S&P 500, which is shown in log scale. Please let me know if that helps answer your question.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart Of The Day: Financial Stress And Major Market Peaks [View article]
    Financial stress can be measured through a variety of metrics like the slope of the yield curve, spreads between various debt instruments (like the 10-year Treasury and the fed funds rate), money supply, interbank lending, consumer credit conditions, shadow banking activities, high yield market, and others. If you want an extremely in-depth analysis of how financial stress is measured this is an excellent paper:
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks slip again, Dow off 106 [View news story]
    1 of 3 technical red flags have been raised for a market top
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Deflation - And Not Inflation - Is The Main Concern Right Now [View article]
    MIT's Billion Price Index, which represents the most accurate and comprehensive measure of inflationary trends across the country, shows that inflation is falling (same as the CPI) and actually at a much faster rate than the CPI reveals:

    In our discussion with the co-creator of this index (see here: he did explain, however, that they follow similar calculation procedures to the BLS on certain items like housing and rental costs, which will have different impacts on how people feel inflation compared to others.

    Gas prices hit a multi-year low last month below $2 (national average) and are up slightly since then but still far below the average for the past few years:;category_id=

    Food and beverage prices have climbed on a year-over-year basis but are coming off their highs and may now start to trend downward:

    Electricity prices are rising and will likely continue to do so due to "the result of the shutdown of coal-fired plants, reductions in nuclear power, a shift to more expensive renewable energy and natural gas pipeline constraints."
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Major Bear Market In Stocks Ahead? Important Signs To Watch [View article]
    My colleague Chris Puplava goes into greater detail on where we are seeing financial stress build the most and the implications this has for the market. This was published yesterday with a follow-up to be posted a bit later today:
    Jan 30, 2015. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Rubin: Falling Oil Prices 'Harbinger Of What's To Come' [View article]
    Correction: Jeff Rubin's call was for $40-$60. WTI is at $56 as of this writing so we're now in the range he gave. With regards to $200 oil, that was the high-end of the possible range he had outlined in his triple-digit ($100+) forecast, which did come true as of 2008. It's very hard to predict exact turning points, expert or not.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Jim Puplava Too 'Pollyanna' On The Markets And The Economy? [View article]
    Jim Puplava is Chris' father and employer at PFS Group.
    Nov 7, 2014. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Profits And Market Peaks - Are We There Yet? [View article]
    Many commentators were predicting a peak in corporate profits (and, either explicitly or implicitly, a market peak as well) with the weather-induced slowdown in Q1. This article was an attempt to provide a counter-view by showing 1) there are many measures of profits, with the majority still headed higher as of Q1 and 2) that, on average, the overall stock market doesn't typically peak for another year once profits have collectively peaked.

    That said, "things can turn very fast" could be another way of saying that point number 2 above is dealing with an historical average, and that unique circumstances may cause the market to turn or deviate from this in a way we don't expect, i.e. according to historical precedence. As always, historical averages are helpful in developing probable outcomes, but don't guarantee future behavior. Please let me know if that answers your question.
    Oct 8, 2014. 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Profits And Market Peaks - Are We There Yet? [View article]
    Yes, they certainly do! We call this dynamic the Petro Business Cycle. See here:
    Oct 3, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Profits And Market Peaks - Are We There Yet? [View article]
    Oct 3, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Religion Of Doom And Gloom [View article]
    Jim Puplava's Perfect Financial Storm series was written during the 2000-2001 tech bubble peak. Yes, it was doom-and-gloom and yes it was very engaging. However, most importantly, it was written when it should have been. Here's the archive for your reference:
    Aug 18, 2014. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflating The Stock Market - When Trillions Of Dollars Chase Fewer Stocks [View article]
    @HighStakesInvestor, do you mind posting a link to the MarketWatch article?
    Jun 20, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Pettis: Hard Commodity Prices Will Continue To Fall With Decade-Long Chinese Slowdown [View article]
    Actually, Michael is not just an academic, but has a well established history in the financial sector. Also, to be fair, his predictions regarding hard commodities over the last several years turned out to be true.
    May 27, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Europe To Print [View article]
    If you want to follow my work more closely, I now publish under my name rather than Financial Sense.


    May 20, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment