First Coverage - Seeking Alpha 'First Coverage' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/first-coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Regains Confidence as Markets Head into the Home Stretch http://seekingalpha.com/article/172421-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-regains-confidence-as-markets-head-into-the-home-stretch?source=feed 172421

Please Fasten Your Seat Belts…

There’s a saying that many fliers use to comfort themselves on airplanes around the world, and it’s the belief, originated long ago and repeated to this present day, that turbulence, in and of itself, can’t bring down a plane…but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t get the heart racing.

]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:07:13 -0500 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Please Fasten Your Seat Belts…

There’s a saying that many fliers use to comfort themselves on airplanes around the world, and it’s the belief, originated long ago and repeated to this present day, that turbulence, in and of itself, can’t bring down a plane…but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t get the heart racing.


Complete Story »]]> ANF DSX EAT FUQI GE HELE KSS SLM SWK V First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: The Straw that Almost Broke the Camel's Back http://seekingalpha.com/article/170709-weekly-street-sentiment-the-straw-that-almost-broke-the-camel-s-back?source=feed 170709

The Straw that Almost Broke the Camel’s Back

Close but No Cigar.

]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:15:43 -0500 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

The Straw that Almost Broke the Camel’s Back

Close but No Cigar.


Complete Story »]]> BCR COF CYBS JPM MGA NBR PH RTN SGMS TUP First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Market Prepares for ‘Trick or Treat’ http://seekingalpha.com/article/169121-weekly-street-sentiment-market-prepares-for-trick-or-treat?source=feed 169121 click to enlarge

Sell-side comes dressed as unimpressed for Halloween
With Halloween less than a week away, it seems quite appropriate that this market is ready to play with the fears, worries and anxieties of industry professionals everywhere. Even as earnings season blew the doors off what most had anticipated, sentiment didn’t budge from last week and those in the know reacted with a collective yawn.
One of the problems when you’ve been in love with the market for so long (going on seven months now) is that you become harder and harder to impress. Traditionally, there had been a dip in sentiment as we came into earnings season as market professionals hoped for the best, while secretly preparing for the worst. Not so this time. Sentiment rallied into earnings announcements, which meant we were left with what is referred to in show business as a ‘tough crowd.’ And, even with all the impressive numbers that have recently been posted…that tough crowd remained unmoved.
Now, we’re not saying that the rally is all of sudden over. After all, sentiment not increasing is not the same as sentiment decreasing. And, as we’ve been consistently reporting for the last two months, we still believe that based on the data we’re tracking, too many people have too much of a vested interest to finish 2009, with bonuses and performance numbers intact, to let the rally just peter out without any large negative catalyst. However, that being said, sentiment is a fickle beast, and we need to remain alert at all times for any indications that the mood of the crowd might be getting surly…and traditionally we’ve always looked to Technology and Financials to gauge the temperature of the masses, and this week…not so hot.
Technology goes bump in the night
Technology suffered a 7% decline in sentiment.
This was the largest single week decline since the lazy, hazy days of summer.
This could be indicative of many things -- some as benign as retracing part of the large gains we’ve made in technology sentiment over the last few weeks; some as significant as indicating a lowering of risk appetite post earnings announcements.
Other reasons for the dip could include a general dissatisfaction with the numbers that companies just posted or a belief that the fundamentals of the industry don’t support current valuations. For those who are looking for a worst case scenario, it could also mean that those who have been buying these stocks non-stop for the last seven months have had enough and are moving on to greener pastures with less risk. One week doesn’t make a story, but it does make an interesting data point that we’ll continue to watch. In the meantime, the good news is that when we look to Financials to see if there was a similar decline in sentiment over the last week, we didn’t see it.
Stocks to Watch
Over the last week, the following stocks had the largest bullish and bearish sentiment shifts amongst the sell-side.
Bullish:
click to enlarge
Bearish:
]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:15:47 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

click to enlarge

Sell-side comes dressed as unimpressed for Halloween
With Halloween less than a week away, it seems quite appropriate that this market is ready to play with the fears, worries and anxieties of industry professionals everywhere. Even as earnings season blew the doors off what most had anticipated, sentiment didn’t budge from last week and those in the know reacted with a collective yawn.
One of the problems when you’ve been in love with the market for so long (going on seven months now) is that you become harder and harder to impress. Traditionally, there had been a dip in sentiment as we came into earnings season as market professionals hoped for the best, while secretly preparing for the worst. Not so this time. Sentiment rallied into earnings announcements, which meant we were left with what is referred to in show business as a ‘tough crowd.’ And, even with all the impressive numbers that have recently been posted…that tough crowd remained unmoved.
Now, we’re not saying that the rally is all of sudden over. After all, sentiment not increasing is not the same as sentiment decreasing. And, as we’ve been consistently reporting for the last two months, we still believe that based on the data we’re tracking, too many people have too much of a vested interest to finish 2009, with bonuses and performance numbers intact, to let the rally just peter out without any large negative catalyst. However, that being said, sentiment is a fickle beast, and we need to remain alert at all times for any indications that the mood of the crowd might be getting surly…and traditionally we’ve always looked to Technology and Financials to gauge the temperature of the masses, and this week…not so hot.
Technology goes bump in the night
Technology suffered a 7% decline in sentiment.
This was the largest single week decline since the lazy, hazy days of summer.
This could be indicative of many things -- some as benign as retracing part of the large gains we’ve made in technology sentiment over the last few weeks; some as significant as indicating a lowering of risk appetite post earnings announcements.
Other reasons for the dip could include a general dissatisfaction with the numbers that companies just posted or a belief that the fundamentals of the industry don’t support current valuations. For those who are looking for a worst case scenario, it could also mean that those who have been buying these stocks non-stop for the last seven months have had enough and are moving on to greener pastures with less risk. One week doesn’t make a story, but it does make an interesting data point that we’ll continue to watch. In the meantime, the good news is that when we look to Financials to see if there was a similar decline in sentiment over the last week, we didn’t see it.
Stocks to Watch
Over the last week, the following stocks had the largest bullish and bearish sentiment shifts amongst the sell-side.
Bullish:
click to enlarge
Bearish:

Complete Story »]]> BKH COH GILD IMMU LXK MCO MTG STD WFC WMS First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: You Can't Improve on Perfection http://seekingalpha.com/article/167497-weekly-street-sentiment-you-can-t-improve-on-perfection?source=feed 167497

We’re Batting 1.000…anyone else worried?

Well, it’s taken us a while to get here, but for the first time since we started tracking sell-side sentiment over two and a half years ago, there is bullish sentiment associated with every single industry. No Neutrals, no Bears, just one hundred percent rose-colored glasses across the board.

]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:07:48 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

We’re Batting 1.000…anyone else worried?

Well, it’s taken us a while to get here, but for the first time since we started tracking sell-side sentiment over two and a half years ago, there is bullish sentiment associated with every single industry. No Neutrals, no Bears, just one hundred percent rose-colored glasses across the board.


Complete Story »]]> AMR BBY ENI HOG KGC LSTR MA NOV STT First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell Side Loves Everything and Everybody http://seekingalpha.com/article/166131-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-loves-everything-and-everybody?source=feed 166131

Sell-Side Loves Everything and Everybody

I Love you Man!

]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 04:38:56 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Sell-Side Loves Everything and Everybody

I Love you Man!


Complete Story »]]> BBT CNX EOG HPQ KEY NTES ONXX PXD RIMM VCI First Coverage A Market in Motion Will Remain in Motion http://seekingalpha.com/article/164987-a-market-in-motion-will-remain-in-motion?source=feed 164987


The Ends Justifies the Means

Watching the end of a blowout NFL game and the financial markets close out 2009 could be eerily similar this year. If over the next three months it seems that market participants are simply trying to run out the clock and close this year on a high, you might be absolutely right.

]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:49:13 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:




The Ends Justifies the Means

Watching the end of a blowout NFL game and the financial markets close out 2009 could be eerily similar this year. If over the next three months it seems that market participants are simply trying to run out the clock and close this year on a high, you might be absolutely right.


Complete Story »]]> ASH BIDU BP BRCD FITB ICE MHK MRX SCG First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: A Rally in Motion Stays in Motion http://seekingalpha.com/article/162678-weekly-street-sentiment-a-rally-in-motion-stays-in-motion?source=feed 162678

Sell-Side Content to Stay Content.

]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 03:33:27 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Sell-Side Content to Stay Content.


Complete Story »]]> BBG BRLI CAG DELL NFLX PNC POT THOR VMC First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Looks Forward, Not Back http://seekingalpha.com/article/161559-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-looks-forward-not-back?source=feed 161559

On One-Year Anniversary, Sell-Side Looks Forward - Not Back

Exactly one year since the beginning of the so-called end, the sell-side continues to suggest to their buy-side clients that the worst is behind us, or at the very least, not ready to return any time soon. Whether you want to attribute this to short-term memory, systemic optimism or an inability to jump off this six-month rally train without hobbling their career is still uncertain.

]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:07:44 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

On One-Year Anniversary, Sell-Side Looks Forward - Not Back

Exactly one year since the beginning of the so-called end, the sell-side continues to suggest to their buy-side clients that the worst is behind us, or at the very least, not ready to return any time soon. Whether you want to attribute this to short-term memory, systemic optimism or an inability to jump off this six-month rally train without hobbling their career is still uncertain.


Complete Story »]]> ABX AMSC HP JOYG LZ NYT PCLN SCG SE TTM First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: No Back to School Jitters in the Markets http://seekingalpha.com/article/160522-weekly-street-sentiment-no-back-to-school-jitters-in-the-markets?source=feed 160522

September is just another month

September has come and the end of the world (or the end of the market rally, which to our readership would probably be one and the same) seems a little tardy. Alternatively, it has already started, and the sell-side just hasn’t paid attention as they continue to worry less about the end of the current market rally and more about how their kids settled in on the first day of school.

]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:14:51 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

September is just another month

September has come and the end of the world (or the end of the market rally, which to our readership would probably be one and the same) seems a little tardy. Alternatively, it has already started, and the sell-side just hasn’t paid attention as they continue to worry less about the end of the current market rally and more about how their kids settled in on the first day of school.


Complete Story »]]> AMED CTL GG NVDA PCAR S SYMC WFC First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Somewhat Disinterested http://seekingalpha.com/article/158109-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-somewhat-disinterested?source=feed 158109

Regardless of what else is going on in the marketplace, summer is still summer. And for those lucky enough to still be employed within the financial industry, August means time away from the markets and a chance to reunite with those strange people who keep telling you they’re related to you. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the last few weeks of August represent a lower level of sell-side activity in the marketplace.

]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 06:39:58 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Regardless of what else is going on in the marketplace, summer is still summer. And for those lucky enough to still be employed within the financial industry, August means time away from the markets and a chance to reunite with those strange people who keep telling you they’re related to you. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the last few weeks of August represent a lower level of sell-side activity in the marketplace.


Complete Story »]]> AH AMZN ARO ATVI BA C CAT CBK DTV FSLR IGT PALM PFE TEVA VMW WMT WYNN First Coverage Market Falters but Sentiment Doesn't http://seekingalpha.com/article/156686-market-falters-but-sentiment-doesn-t?source=feed 156686

Sell-side taking cautious stance in dog days of summer

Recognize that headline above? The one about a “cautious stance?” You should; it’s the same as last week. In fact, if we had to summarize the sentiment of the sell-side in one word, it would be… “cautious.”

]]> Tue, 18 Aug 2009 05:25:18 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Sell-side taking cautious stance in dog days of summer

Recognize that headline above? The one about a “cautious stance?” You should; it’s the same as last week. In fact, if we had to summarize the sentiment of the sell-side in one word, it would be… “cautious.”


Complete Story »]]> BG COF DNDN FCX MAR MON PCLN SAP SO First Coverage Market Sentiment: Sell-Side Awaits Catalyst http://seekingalpha.com/article/155363-market-sentiment-sell-side-awaits-catalyst?source=feed 155363 Sell-Side taking cautious stance in Dog Days of Summer:

While I wish every week we had earth-shattering news to share, and while I wish that this week was different than last week, but it’s not.

]]> Tue, 11 Aug 2009 10:22:44 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Sell-Side taking cautious stance in Dog Days of Summer:

While I wish every week we had earth-shattering news to share, and while I wish that this week was different than last week, but it’s not.


Complete Story »]]> AH AMZN ARO ATVI BDX CBK CTX EOG ETH FFIV GILD HOG HURN LMT MCO NOK PALM POP RI ROST TEVA TJX VMW WMT WY WYNN YHOO First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: All’s Quiet on the Sell-Side Front! http://seekingalpha.com/article/153533-weekly-street-sentiment-alls-quiet-on-the-sell-side-front?source=feed 153533 click to enlarge

Sell-Side Remains Bullish… just not quite as emphatic as before.

A whole lot of nothing!

]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 06:28:40 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

click to enlarge

Sell-Side Remains Bullish… just not quite as emphatic as before.

A whole lot of nothing!


Complete Story »]]> CA ED ILMN MCO MFC NKE RVBD SRE TRIN First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Loves Everything - Except Technology http://seekingalpha.com/article/151683-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-loves-everything-except-technology?source=feed 151683

Be Long; It Doesn’t Really Matter Where!

Headline: Sell-side continues their love affair with the current summer market rally.

]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:31:46 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Be Long; It Doesn’t Really Matter Where!

Headline: Sell-side continues their love affair with the current summer market rally.


Complete Story »]]> ALL BCO DECK DIA DO LTM MOT ORLY PWRD QQQQ SPY TMO TTWO XLF XLK First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Gets Burned Going Bearish Too Soon http://seekingalpha.com/article/150113-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-gets-burned-going-bearish-too-soon?source=feed 150113 click to enlarge

Sell-Side Gets Burned Going Bearish Too Soon
Ouch, that one hurt!
Sixteen weeks we waited for the sell-side to decide the market rally was ready to turn.
Sixteen weeks we wondered what it would take to make them reconsider their long bias and what that would mean for a market that seemingly was running based on the notion that the market simply wanted it to keep running higher.
Sixteen weeks we marvelled at the resolve of the sell-side to maintain their composure and be consistent with their “stay long” advice to their client base.
Sixteen weeks we waited… and it only took two weeks for the sell-side to conclude that they had moved too soon.
Welcome back folks! According to the sell-side, this rally isn’t over yet and when they realized their mistake, the sell-side couldn’t find a fast enough way to jump back on the bullish bandwagon that they had left a mere 14 days ago!
Last week saw sentiment climb 7.8%, the largest single week-over-week climb since we’ve been tracking this data. However, it probably speaks more to the amount of sell-side professionals who got caught offside than it does to any fundamental shift in the economic or corporate picture.
Now, we’re not going to take a stab at trying to figure out what made the sell-side turn bearish two weeks ago. In truth, it could have been anything from macro data to just being nervous that the market had come too far too fast. And, we’re not going to try and understand what drove them to do a one hundred and eighty degree turn on that feeling this past week. But where we can add value is in trying to understand how often we’ve been in this type of “flip-flop” environment when sentiment has turned this rapidly and what did that means for the upcoming months.
So, What Certainty Comes from Uncertainty?
Let’s put things in context. Over the past 30 months, there have been sixteen distinct sentiment shifts including the two that most recently occurred. The average sentiment trend has lasted eight weeks with the longest being 26 weeks back in 2007 and the shortest being a few occasions of just one week.
During those thirty months, there have only been three occasions since we started tracking sell-side sentiment when their “feel” for the market has shifted back and forth over such a short duration.
The first was between December 2007 and January 2008. The sell-side had been in a pronounced bearish trend for 10 weeks before they went bullish for a week, reverted back for a couple of weeks, went bullish again for a single week, reverted back for a month and then finally settled into a sustained 17-week bullish period that ran from February to March of 2008. The final bullish period generated a 9% benchmark return even though it took a couple months of uncertainty to establish a new direction for the market.
In May of 2008, at the end of the above mentioned trend, the sell-side went bearish for two weeks, reverted back to being bullish for a single week and then finally turned bearish for good in mid-June, 2008. The perma-bears ruled for 18 weeks during which the sentiment benchmark posted a greater than 30% return.
Finally, there was one other time in which the sell-side jumped to the other side of the sentiment equation (i.e., from being bulls to bears) for a single week in November of 2008. They managed to capture a generous 15% return in that single week and then went back to being bulls again until the beginning of 2009.
In hindsight, it shouldn’t be surprising that meaningful shifts aren’t pretty or clean. They do tend to take a couple tries to finally move the sell-side from one side of the market to the other for good and knowing that it’s the upcoming weeks that will be the decisive ones to watch. If the sell-side shows continued volatility and moves bearish again in the next week or two, then history would indicate we’ve entered another sustained bearish trend. While the transition wouldn’t have been pretty or even profitable, at that time the sell-side would be suggesting that your money should be off the table and out of the market for at least a couple of months and probably even longer.
So, as we wait and watch, here are the five tickers that have undergone the biggest bullish and bearish sentiment shifts over the last week:
Top 5 Bullish Sentiment Shifts:
Top 5 Bearish Sentiment Shifts:
Until next week…
]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 09:16:56 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

click to enlarge

Sell-Side Gets Burned Going Bearish Too Soon
Ouch, that one hurt!
Sixteen weeks we waited for the sell-side to decide the market rally was ready to turn.
Sixteen weeks we wondered what it would take to make them reconsider their long bias and what that would mean for a market that seemingly was running based on the notion that the market simply wanted it to keep running higher.
Sixteen weeks we marvelled at the resolve of the sell-side to maintain their composure and be consistent with their “stay long” advice to their client base.
Sixteen weeks we waited… and it only took two weeks for the sell-side to conclude that they had moved too soon.
Welcome back folks! According to the sell-side, this rally isn’t over yet and when they realized their mistake, the sell-side couldn’t find a fast enough way to jump back on the bullish bandwagon that they had left a mere 14 days ago!
Last week saw sentiment climb 7.8%, the largest single week-over-week climb since we’ve been tracking this data. However, it probably speaks more to the amount of sell-side professionals who got caught offside than it does to any fundamental shift in the economic or corporate picture.
Now, we’re not going to take a stab at trying to figure out what made the sell-side turn bearish two weeks ago. In truth, it could have been anything from macro data to just being nervous that the market had come too far too fast. And, we’re not going to try and understand what drove them to do a one hundred and eighty degree turn on that feeling this past week. But where we can add value is in trying to understand how often we’ve been in this type of “flip-flop” environment when sentiment has turned this rapidly and what did that means for the upcoming months.
So, What Certainty Comes from Uncertainty?
Let’s put things in context. Over the past 30 months, there have been sixteen distinct sentiment shifts including the two that most recently occurred. The average sentiment trend has lasted eight weeks with the longest being 26 weeks back in 2007 and the shortest being a few occasions of just one week.
During those thirty months, there have only been three occasions since we started tracking sell-side sentiment when their “feel” for the market has shifted back and forth over such a short duration.
The first was between December 2007 and January 2008. The sell-side had been in a pronounced bearish trend for 10 weeks before they went bullish for a week, reverted back for a couple of weeks, went bullish again for a single week, reverted back for a month and then finally settled into a sustained 17-week bullish period that ran from February to March of 2008. The final bullish period generated a 9% benchmark return even though it took a couple months of uncertainty to establish a new direction for the market.
In May of 2008, at the end of the above mentioned trend, the sell-side went bearish for two weeks, reverted back to being bullish for a single week and then finally turned bearish for good in mid-June, 2008. The perma-bears ruled for 18 weeks during which the sentiment benchmark posted a greater than 30% return.
Finally, there was one other time in which the sell-side jumped to the other side of the sentiment equation (i.e., from being bulls to bears) for a single week in November of 2008. They managed to capture a generous 15% return in that single week and then went back to being bulls again until the beginning of 2009.
In hindsight, it shouldn’t be surprising that meaningful shifts aren’t pretty or clean. They do tend to take a couple tries to finally move the sell-side from one side of the market to the other for good and knowing that it’s the upcoming weeks that will be the decisive ones to watch. If the sell-side shows continued volatility and moves bearish again in the next week or two, then history would indicate we’ve entered another sustained bearish trend. While the transition wouldn’t have been pretty or even profitable, at that time the sell-side would be suggesting that your money should be off the table and out of the market for at least a couple of months and probably even longer.
So, as we wait and watch, here are the five tickers that have undergone the biggest bullish and bearish sentiment shifts over the last week:
Top 5 Bullish Sentiment Shifts:
Top 5 Bearish Sentiment Shifts:
Until next week…

Complete Story »]]> AMSC ANSS CCL CNW ESI FCX LSTR RIMM VPRT X First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Professionals Ignore Meredith Whitney http://seekingalpha.com/article/148527-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-professionals-ignore-meredith-whitney?source=feed 148527

Bad Summer on the Horizon!

Does anyone remember the days when summer was a time to relax, kick back and start wondering what you were going to do with the bonus you had already packed away? Not this summer kids! If the drop in sell-side sentiment is any indication of what’s ahead over the next two months, we can expect a corresponding pop in volatility which would make any time away from the computer monitors about as restful and relaxing as a trip to the in-laws. In fact, the shift in the sell-side’s mood is suggesting it’s time to batten down the hatches, put the storm shutters on the windows and get the suss-pump working.

]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 03:09:24 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Bad Summer on the Horizon!

Does anyone remember the days when summer was a time to relax, kick back and start wondering what you were going to do with the bonus you had already packed away? Not this summer kids! If the drop in sell-side sentiment is any indication of what’s ahead over the next two months, we can expect a corresponding pop in volatility which would make any time away from the computer monitors about as restful and relaxing as a trip to the in-laws. In fact, the shift in the sell-side’s mood is suggesting it’s time to batten down the hatches, put the storm shutters on the windows and get the suss-pump working.


Complete Story »]]> ABX BAC CVX GMT HES HP LSGGF.PK POT SE T First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Tells Buy-Side the Rally Is Over http://seekingalpha.com/article/146114-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-tells-buy-side-the-rally-is-over?source=feed 146114

After 16 weeks, 35% gains and more prayers to assorted deities than you can shake a stick at, the sell-side sentiment fell enough between Friday, June 19 and Friday, June 26 to cause the first “sell” signal since the First Coverage Market Index (i.e., sell-side sentiment) turned bullish at the start of March. And, even though Monday saw sentiment tick up a touch, and there was uncertainty reflected in the sell-side closing out more positions than they opened last week, as they say in the Old West, “The damage, she be done, and we be short!”

]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 05:05:21 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

After 16 weeks, 35% gains and more prayers to assorted deities than you can shake a stick at, the sell-side sentiment fell enough between Friday, June 19 and Friday, June 26 to cause the first “sell” signal since the First Coverage Market Index (i.e., sell-side sentiment) turned bullish at the start of March. And, even though Monday saw sentiment tick up a touch, and there was uncertainty reflected in the sell-side closing out more positions than they opened last week, as they say in the Old West, “The damage, she be done, and we be short!”


Complete Story »]]> ASIA CAG CAKE COSWF.PK FISV MAS MHK PAYX PH RTP First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment (June 23, 2009): Sell-Side Wobbles http://seekingalpha.com/article/144836-weekly-street-sentiment-june-23-2009-sell-side-wobbles?source=feed 144836 click to enlarge

First Coverage Sell-Side Sentiment declined last week by the largest percentage since this rally began in early March., dropping 1.7%. The conundrum facing those of us that follow this indicator is that for the last two years we have labelled any week over week move greater than 2.0% as ‘significant’. So, the question for those that are eager to sell this market short today is…what’s 0.3% matter in the scheme of things? We’ll get to that in a minute.

]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:05:10 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

click to enlarge

First Coverage Sell-Side Sentiment declined last week by the largest percentage since this rally began in early March., dropping 1.7%. The conundrum facing those of us that follow this indicator is that for the last two years we have labelled any week over week move greater than 2.0% as ‘significant’. So, the question for those that are eager to sell this market short today is…what’s 0.3% matter in the scheme of things? We’ll get to that in a minute.


Complete Story »]]> BCS DHI DIA FSLR GE GS HRS HVT IVV MSFT POT QQQQ SPY WAG First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell-Side Tells Buy-Side to Remain Long http://seekingalpha.com/article/143379-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-tells-buy-side-to-remain-long?source=feed 143379

Writing this after the markets closed Monday, the clear question on everybody’s mind is “What does a low-volume market shellacking mean for the strength, duration or validity of this market rally?”

]]> Tue, 16 Jun 2009 04:09:07 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

Writing this after the markets closed Monday, the clear question on everybody’s mind is “What does a low-volume market shellacking mean for the strength, duration or validity of this market rally?”


Complete Story »]]> ADXTF.PK AET BC CCO EQMIF.PK NDN PETM RHT UNH First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: ‘Benefit of the Doubt’ Rally Continues for 14th Straight Week! http://seekingalpha.com/article/142064-weekly-street-sentiment-benefit-of-the-doubt-rally-continues-for-14th-straight-week?source=feed 142064
If sentiment towards an inanimate object like a marketplace can get hyperbolic in its ascent, then we do believe that’s what we’re seeing with the sell-side. For three of the last four weeks, there has been a large bullish shift in aggregate sentiment leading one to wonder how high can high possibly get?
This week represents the fourteenth week in a row that the trend has remained bullish, and there is no question that this rally, which began as an act of sheer force by bullish market participants who universally determined on March 9th that enough was enough, has continued almost unabated and now, 40% higher, the question on everyone’s lips is, “When and how does it end?”
The answer from the sell-side is, “Don’t know, and not yet.” What’s going to turn this rally is as unpredictable as what started it. We’ll go on record as saying that it will most likely be some type of news or new data point (from the school of “duh”). However, that being said, we’ll go double or nothing that it will likely not even be a meaningful data point…at least not until hindsight is provided.
As we’ve commented upon previously, during this rally news, economic indicators and data no longer are simply objective points that are simply “good” or “bad.” Everything continues to be viewed by market participants via a filter whereby each individual gets to determine themselves whether something is good or bad. This whole market is a public relations maven’s dream. It reminds us of that saying, “Guns don’t kill people; people kill people”… now we have a market where bad news won’t kill this rally; people will kill it when they stop giving bad news the benefit of the doubt.
Housing starts, employment numbers, TARP stress test procedures -- any or all of these data points -- could have been viewed with a negative slant, but the market decided back in March that it was going to be a kinder, gentler place and has digested news accordingly. It’s not slow housing starts. It’s a chance to burn off surplus. It’s not >9% unemployment. It’s the other claims number. It’s not the loose rules surrounding the TARP stress test. It’s the fact that most of them passed, and the results were nicely leaked ahead of time.
So when will this end? Only when the desire to believe in “green shoots” gives way to the skepticism of seeing weeds where plants used to grow; that’s when. This is not a market running on fundamentals, and as long as optimism reins, the rally will continue simply based on the belief that economic and market bottoms have been marked even if there remains no confirmation that there’s a recovery on the way.
That being the case, it seems that the sell-side is not trying to forecast the road ahead as much as just gauge the likelihood that the road ahead over the next week will involve that inevitable 10 car pile-up…and this week, based on the data we’re seeing, the sell-side believes that the roads are pretty clear, and there’s not much from a fundamental point to turn the tide, not much from an economic point to stop the rally, and enough stimulus in the marketplace to keep things positive. In the sell-side’s view, that all adds up to another week in which the sell-side continues to tell their buy-side clients to be long in this market.
Down at the sector level, there were big bullish moves in financials and industrials, both for the second week in a row. In fact, financials has now finally moved from the most bearish industry by sentiment and been replaced with Consumer Goods.
Below we have included the five stocks that are currently the most bullish and bearish according to the sell-side:

Bullish
SHANDA INTERACTIVE
RESEARCH IN MOTION
VISA
ACTIVISION INC
AECOM TECHNOLOGY COR

Bearish
LEAR CORP.
PALM INC
AMER EXPRESS INC
TIFFANY AND CO
BK OF MONTREAL COM NPV

]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 05:20:19 -0400 First Coverage First Coverage submits:

If sentiment towards an inanimate object like a marketplace can get hyperbolic in its ascent, then we do believe that’s what we’re seeing with the sell-side. For three of the last four weeks, there has been a large bullish shift in aggregate sentiment leading one to wonder how high can high possibly get?
This week represents the fourteenth week in a row that the trend has remained bullish, and there is no question that this rally, which began as an act of sheer force by bullish market participants who universally determined on March 9th that enough was enough, has continued almost unabated and now, 40% higher, the question on everyone’s lips is, “When and how does it end?”
The answer from the sell-side is, “Don’t know, and not yet.” What’s going to turn this rally is as unpredictable as what started it. We’ll go on record as saying that it will most likely be some type of news or new data point (from the school of “duh”). However, that being said, we’ll go double or nothing that it will likely not even be a meaningful data point…at least not until hindsight is provided.
As we’ve commented upon previously, during this rally news, economic indicators and data no longer are simply objective points that are simply “good” or “bad.” Everything continues to be viewed by market participants via a filter whereby each individual gets to determine themselves whether something is good or bad. This whole market is a public relations maven’s dream. It reminds us of that saying, “Guns don’t kill people; people kill people”… now we have a market where bad news won’t kill this rally; people will kill it when they stop giving bad news the benefit of the doubt.
Housing starts, employment numbers, TARP stress test procedures -- any or all of these data points -- could have been viewed with a negative slant, but the market decided back in March that it was going to be a kinder, gentler place and has digested news accordingly. It’s not slow housing starts. It’s a chance to burn off surplus. It’s not >9% unemployment. It’s the other claims number. It’s not the loose rules surrounding the TARP stress test. It’s the fact that most of them passed, and the results were nicely leaked ahead of time.
So when will this end? Only when the desire to believe in “green shoots” gives way to the skepticism of seeing weeds where plants used to grow; that’s when. This is not a market running on fundamentals, and as long as optimism reins, the rally will continue simply based on the belief that economic and market bottoms have been marked even if there remains no confirmation that there’s a recovery on the way.
That being the case, it seems that the sell-side is not trying to forecast the road ahead as much as just gauge the likelihood that the road ahead over the next week will involve that inevitable 10 car pile-up…and this week, based on the data we’re seeing, the sell-side believes that the roads are pretty clear, and there’s not much from a fundamental point to turn the tide, not much from an economic point to stop the rally, and enough stimulus in the marketplace to keep things positive. In the sell-side’s view, that all adds up to another week in which the sell-side continues to tell their buy-side clients to be long in this market.
Down at the sector level, there were big bullish moves in financials and industrials, both for the second week in a row. In fact, financials has now finally moved from the most bearish industry by sentiment and been replaced with Consumer Goods.
Below we have included the five stocks that are currently the most bullish and bearish according to the sell-side:

Bullish
SHANDA INTERACTIVE
RESEARCH IN MOTION
VISA
ACTIVISION INC
AECOM TECHNOLOGY COR

Bearish
LEAR CORP.
PALM INC
AMER EXPRESS INC
TIFFANY AND CO
BK OF MONTREAL COM NPV


Complete Story »]]> ACM ATVI AXP BMO LEA PALM RIMM SNDA TIF V First Coverage