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  • Qualcomm: Too Much Focus On The Chinese Situation Might Create A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Qualcomm's also making moves in the health care tech space. The shares are a bargain here.

    Long QCOM
    Aug 15 03:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Superior Drilling Products Is An Appropriate Name For This Natural Gas E&P Derivative [View article]
    Thank you for the in-depth analysis. I established a position in SDPI months ago on the recommendation of an energy analyst, but did it more on faith than on complete knowledge of operations. Seems to be the right product at the right time - domestic energy boom, picks and shovels and all that jazz :)

    Long SDPI
    Jul 26 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is My Next Apple [View article]
    WellCare reported this week. Hep C drug costs increased 6-fold since last year causing the company to swing to a loss. The stock (NYSE:WCG) promptly plunged 22%! The pricing issue is not going away. Don't get me wrong - I have no love for the insurers, but my concerns regarding a solvent customer base remain.
    Jul 26 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Has Reached "A Permanently High Plateau" -- If The Fed Does Not Mess Up Again [View article]
    The question and the problem is this: is the market "fairly valued" based on healthy, organic earnings growth (organic, yum!) or monetary magic via debt spells, floated checks and transfer payments? You might say it doesn't matter, but I beg to differ. I won't get into the exorbitant privilege enjoyed by the US dollar, much of it has all been said elsewhere by folks wiser than I - bottom line, there is no such thing as fair value in this hall of mirrors.
    Jul 23 10:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: An Attempt To Objectively Evaluate The Current Situation [View article]
    I've been wrestling with the same indecision. I bought the stock knowing it faced a binary outcome; it was either going to zero or there was going to be an epic turnaround. I'm now up 50% and conflicted. My initial decision to buy was based on the big intangible - brand equity. I feel APP has it, they haven't lost it, the question is, can they leverage it and get back in the game? If they can, the stock could prove to be an ever-elusive 10 bagger. I will likely sell half my position on a move to $1.50 and let the remaining shares run on house money.
    Jul 11 01:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is My Next Apple [View article]
    I'll pass on Russia, thanks. A company ought to be compensated for the risks they take, I totally get it. I have no beef with GILD's pricing. In a world of highly-levered governments and social programs stretched to the brink, my concerns are more existential. It's not unreasonable to ask who GILD's customers will be at a specific price point. Then again, with global currencies untethered from anything of real value, perhaps anything is possible.
    Jun 30 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is My Next Apple [View article]
    Adding to my previous comments, anyone considering going all-in (rarely a good idea) on GILD, please consider the very real risk in the pricing pressures.
    Jun 30 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is My Next Apple [View article]
    Here is my big concern with the biotechs, and I hope someone can help me see the light because I really want to get onboard. Where does the money for these drugs ultimately come from? It's an exciting sector, but I generally avoid companies/themes that depend on government subsidies because I'm in the camp that believes, for all intents and purposes, the government is bankrupt. Is Medicare/Medicaid Gilead's biggest customer? It all seems so unsustainable to me, but perhaps it's pointless to go down that rabbithole?? With the global economy one big (and growing) pile of liabilities, I suppose all sectors are dependent on government in one form or another. Am I crazy? :)
    Jun 30 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North American QSRs: Avoid The Low End, Stick With The High End [View article]
    Thoughts on the Wendy's turnaround?
    Jun 25 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries, United Rentals, Air Lease All Offer Significant Upside [View article]
    URI sports a ridiculous amount of debt. You have to be extremely bullish on the domestic economy to make such a cylical, highly leveraged bet. Same thing with Air Lease. TRN is the best of the bunch.
    Jun 11 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi Senses A Crisis [View article]
    Your comment reflects a misunderstanding about what the ECB is doing. The banks are not charging their depositors negative interest rates; it's the central bank doing this to the banks. It's an important distinction because it's not "money" being put to use, but more debt. The banks are forced to either make LOANS or pay up to Draghi the pit boss at the ECB. This is why critics of QE and all these other programs are so concerned - MORE DEBT - is there a saturation point? Or is debt creation infinite with regular periods of boom and bust (bankruptcy)?
    Jun 7 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction, Interrupted [View article]
    Are you seriously extrapolating what's going in SF to the rest of the country? Silicon Valley better dig a moat and build a drawbridge because the natives are getting restless.
    Jun 2 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction, Interrupted [View article]
    Lions and tigers and capitulating bears, oh my! Time to get short.
    Jun 2 10:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Another Beat And Raise; Is It Nearing A Top? [View article]
    I went back and did a little research in an attempt to reach a decision on whether to continue holding TRN. The order backlog has grown. Regulatory tailwinds are forcing railcar upgrades. I like that the company's seeing growth in the leasing division, which ought to keep cash flows moving in a positive direction (the lack of free cash flow is a going concern for me with this type of hard industry company). Recent highs were made on good volume and $250 mil for share repurchases ought to support the stock through a summer correction. My biggest concern is broad market risk with leaders seeing the worst of the selling. Still, I think the stock ultimately sees $90. It's just a question of whether it sees the 60's first.
    May 11 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Another Beat And Raise; Is It Nearing A Top? [View article]
    As a TRN long and bear on the broader economy, I appreciate your warning. I think it's important to remember Peter Lynch's caution on cyclicals - at their peaks, they always look cheap. Boom time profits expand the E in the P/E very rapidly (TRN: P/E 12) and investors get caught off guard when the cycle rolls over.
    May 10 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment