Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Fiver Capital  

View Fiver Capital's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • King Dollar Is Here To Stay [View article]
    The dollar is tanking this morning on lousy jobs data. A deterioration in the employment picture was all that was needed to complete the run of poor data we've had recently. There's no rate hike coming. The rate narrative has given the japanese and european central banks breathing room to launch their own programs; from here on out it's all talk from all 3 banks as they attempt to manage their exchange rates against each other and prevent their respective currencies from imploding.
    Apr 3, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar Is Here To Stay [View article]
    You make good arguments here, Stephen. I suppose where we really diverge is in the idea that the Fed is poised to tighten. They may talk tight, but actions speak louder than words. Ben Bernanke even kicked off his inaugural blog post by admitting, "When I was at the Federal Reserve, I occasionally observed that monetary policy is 98 percent talk and only two percent action." That tells you all you need to know on how they intend on handling the strength in the dollar - with a lot of talk.

    My view is that the incessant double-talk will eventually lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar, and confidence is way more important than the fundamentals you've laid out here. Personally I've never given much credence to the idea of a "fair value" for currencies. I understand that international deal making and trade plays a role on the demand side, but I sat and watched the dollar dive over 5% in a couple hours on Fed day. That's an incredible amount of speculative interest with no stake in GDP metrics or M2 figures. And it's all on one side of the boat!

    In any case, we will both likely be right in the near term as I expect a lot of volatility. In the long term, the current system doesn't make sense for the majority of participants and the winds of change are howling.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Start Shorting The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Wow, nothing like rattling the cages of the dollar bulls! To be clear, I'm not advocating using 100 to 1 leverage to go out and buy the euro. That's not what this article is about. In fact, I've said I'm happy to short the euro (or the pound) as a a hedge. I'm using just enough leverage to allow me to stay in this trade no matter what the dollar does in the near term, and the currencies I'm long are paying me - I'm collecting a leveraged carry yield that pads the account day in and day out.

    As for the technicals, it looks to me like to dollar has just completed a double zig-zag correction off the 2008 lows. If the dollar backs down in a 4th wave and heads higher in a 5th wave, then we could be looking at a more impulsive move in the coming years. But for now, the dollar index is more overbought on a monthly basis than at any time in the last 20 years and the volume says that sellers are overwhelming buyers.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Start Shorting The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    The volume looks the same on the dollar index futures charts. Distribution at highs. And if we come off a little more into the end of the month, there's a nice shooting star reversal candle in play on the monthly chart.
    Mar 24, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Start Shorting The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Alex, I'm long silver via call options, but I'm not entirely convinced the bottom is in with the metals yet. I'm willing to tolerate a little volatility in the dollar because I'm getting a nice leveraged yield, but the metals don't pay me to wait. My silver target is $22, then I'll wait for a test of the lows to get back in.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Start Shorting The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    I've been trading currencies for a long time. I don't get excited by "little rallies." What gets me excited is when loud mouths try to shout me down with the company line. It's like giving the contrarian in me a yummy ice cream cone, and it's hot here, so thanks.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:28 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Give'em The Old Razzle Dazzle [View article]
    Yellen's press conference was truly a low point for the Fed. A comparison to the teacher from The Peanuts is a little too obvious, so I liken her communication style to that of a muzzled platypus. A whole lot nothin with an anti-charisma cherry on top.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    Yes, PE based on growth rate. I used to spend a lot of time chasing my tail on growth stocks that I considered fairly valued because the P/E equaled the growth rate (PEG/the Peter Lynch method), but there ought to be a limit on how much you're willing to pay up. And riskier companies ought to be penalized while quality should be rewarded. Kastenelson's model addresses all of this, and makes good sense to me as valuation tool.
    Feb 18, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    Here's a link to the specifics on Kastenelson's absolute PE model:

    http://bit.ly/1E6bg2x

    With a projected growth rate of 12%, DIS would earn a fair value P/E of 15 plus one point for its dividend = 16. The rest of the fair value P/E is derived from the subjective factors discussed in this article. I could easily assign DIS a premium of 15-20% (Kastenelson suggests somewhere that no stock deserves more than a 30% premium, that's the max) which gets us up to 18-19. I'd also argue that analysts are under-estimating Disney's growth potential and with a growth rate of 15%, the fair P/E is more like 21. This puts DIS fair value at $95, so it's gotten a little ahead of itself on the recent pop.
    Feb 18, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    TF17, I recommended Disney last year and it remains a core holding, though I feel like it's fairly valued at current levels.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    If IBM were to reverse the current no-growth trend, then it could absolutely justify a higher valuation. I just feel it's rapidly becoming one of those old guard companies that has a real fight ahead to get its mojo back. Based on the comments here, there are plenty of investors that disagree with me; only time will tell.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    I owned a Tacoma for several years and it was the best vehicle I ever owned! So I appreciate the analog :)
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    Thanks, WJ. The markets are a humbling place. I learn a lot from my peers and appreciate the checks and balances of a venue like this.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    Please see my reply to stockinvestor81 above.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    The comments regarding book value were meant to illustrate the value destruction occurring under the surface even as EPS creeps higher. There's no mention here of valuing the stock based on book value.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reverse Engineering IBM's Fair Value [View article]
    Hi all,

    Initial comments led me to return to the EPS I used in the end analysis. A number of data providers use $11.90 (consolidated diluted earnings per share), which seems to include a substantial impairment charge. I agree that this wouldn't be a fair way to calculate fair value and will request an edit. Using a $16 EPS, IBM's fair value would be $152. This number still allows for very little margin of safety or share price upside, and my concerns regarding execution remain. Technically, it still looks to me that price wants to return to 2008 levels.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
163 Comments
164 Likes