Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Fiver Capital  

View Fiver Capital's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Wal-Mart's Crisis Creates Opportunity For Contrarians [View article]
    Reuters is reporting Black Friday sales and average spend per customer were both down this year, -1.5% and -1.4% respectively. Online sales, however, were up 18%. Wal-Mart landed 3 deals (including #1) on USA Today's Top 15 Black Friday deals, so it will be interesting to see how the retailer performed when final numbers are published.
    Nov 29, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Crisis Creates Opportunity For Contrarians [View article]
    Nice earnings beat this morning. Shares up 3% before the open. WMT should outperform the sector from here.
    Nov 17, 2015. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Crisis Creates Opportunity For Contrarians [View article]
    The free cash flow yield is 6.5%. Earnings yield is 8.5% (vs. 5.2% for the S&P 500). While I l believe catalysts are important, I can't predict exactly what earnings are going to do, so DCF analysis doesn't appeal to me. Too many assumptions. Having said that, Morningstar's fair value based on DCF is right in line with my own.
    Nov 14, 2015. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Crisis Creates Opportunity For Contrarians [View article]
    It's back inside the range it was in for more than a decade (broke out to new highs in 2012). My guess is that further downside ought to be contained in the low 50s/upper 40s. The bottom of the range, however, isn't until $42; I don't expect it to get there, but extreme conditions could cause it to test that level.
    Nov 12, 2015. 01:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Be Honest, This Could Get Really Bad: Be Careful Out There [View article]
    Well ...that escalated quickly! My VIX target got smashed this morning.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Bullard made some unscheduled comments on Aug 21 and they were not widely considered to be dovish.

    Per Bloomberg: “I have talked about the dangers of staying at zero too long,” Bullard said, adding he remains confident inflation will move back to the Fed’s 2 percent target once the transitory influences of falling commodities prices go away.
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:16 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Market Plunge Is Irrational - And What To Buy Now [View article]
    The function of QE is not to inflate the market directly. What it does do, however, is drive malinvestment, which dramatically distorts the true level of economic activity. Do you really think the U.S. government could afford that shiny new missile if the Fed wasn't buying treasury debt? Could that banker afford his latte if his books reflected the true value of his mortgage holdings? Could Joe 12 Pack afford that Budweiser if the government wasn't paying for his meat and potatoes? The examples are many and varied. Bottom line, the fundamentals are not improving, only the perception of such.
    Aug 23, 2015. 01:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of Something Big? [View article]
    For those technically inclined, I've noticed that each of the last two cyclical bears were preceded by a long-wicked month that punches through the lower bollinger band. Almost as if opening a hole that later allows the decline to continue. Saying it another way, an unusually fast move occurs that punctures dynamic support. We've still got a week left in August, but I expect this level to rupture, which sets up a bigger decline in September.

    Based on my studies, the ultimate line in the sand is at 1792, just under the October 2014 lows. A monthly close under this level signals a 2000/2008 type event. On the other hand, holding this level coupled with a strong month that closes over the middle bollinger band means the market has new highs to make next year.
    Aug 23, 2015. 09:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Market Plunge Is Irrational - And What To Buy Now [View article]
    Totally agree. It's the rise that's been irrational, not the plunge. Everything is cyclical, reversion to the mean etc etc. But it's too early to buy. Give it a month and see if Janet has one last trick left up her sleeve. QE4 would net us the most vicious blow-off the world has ever seen, but that just puts the end of the bear further out. I'd much rather get it over with over now. We'll see.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's The Growth? [View article]
    If you look at what happened in 2007/08, commodity stocks rallied into the first leg of the market's decline. However, you might experience some pain in Sept/Oct when the overall market takes a second leg down. So it all depends on your time frame. Personally, I would use stops with any commodity positions heading into October.
    Aug 16, 2015. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar And Commodities - The Next Leg Up And The Next Leg Down [View article]
    Andy, you're going to owe tom o'brien dinner on this one! The dollar may launch later in the year but I don't expect the hike in september to happen, and the dollar is going to flounder until then. You're too early.
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The USD Is A Major Currency Risk - In The Opposite Manner To What Most Expect [View article]
    Hi Mercenary, I'm a long-term dollar bear and suggested a bearish turn for the dollar at 100 on the DXY. It's been a nice trade and I still expect the dollar to test back to 93 before it moves higher, but I'm preparing a follow-up article re: the closing of my short. I still don't believe the Fed's threats to hike will amount to anything, but money will likely flow to the dollar anyway as Europe, and then Japan, implode. My main difference with the dollar bulls is that I view dollar strength as an illusion supported by volatile capital flows, not fundamentals. You don't mention your long-term view here, but I imagine you'll be right in the near-term. As we get out a couple more years though, the dollar will once again present an excellent shorting opportunity.
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short Disney: Horrendously Expensive And Misunderstood [View article]
    I'm one of those investors who's been bearish on IBM. Comparing a media company like Disney that controls some of the most beloved franchises in the world to a tech company like IBM is silly. Disney is mildly over-valued here but I've been holding since summer 2013 for nearly a 100% cumulative return. Sell some calls against your position? Sure. Short DIS?? Ridiculous.
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Words Of Warning! [View article]
    Sorry, but you lost me at Bob Pisani. While the rising tide lifts all boats insanity of central banks can certainly support another bull leg in asset prices, there is a VERY significant chance of a mean-reverting event before the reflationary launch occurs. You say you don't want to miss it, that you can't time it, but buying multi-year highs is not prudent.
    Jun 14, 2015. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies To Tune Out Noise And Focus On Long-Term Goals [View article]
    Good stuff! As someone currently embarking on a different kind of diet (food!), I love the idea of relabeling "ignorance" as a low information diet. Makes total sense; just because it's there doesn't mean it's relevant or good for you.
    May 31, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment