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  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    The Greeks Just Played the Referendum Card. Here is a link that describes the situation more fully. http://tinyurl.com/nqf...
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 1, 2015 To ??? [View instapost]
    The Greeks Just Played the Referendum Card. My guess is this will be considered as a de facto ultimatum by the EU just as the EU's take it or leave it deal was considered as a de facto ultimatum by the Greeks.
    ====
    Greece to Hold Referendum on Bailout Agreement
    From Greek Reporter, by Anastasios Papapostolou - Jun 26, 2015

    In a speech on national TV, Tsipras said his government had been asked to accept “unbearable” austerity measures.

    Tsipras said German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi have been informed of the plan, and he’ll request an extension of Greece’s existing bailout, due to end June 30, by a few days to permit the vote without having to introduce capital controls in the Greek banks.

    A Greek government source said the country’s banks will open on Monday and no capital controls are planned.

    [So if the ECB removes ELA funding of the banks or the extension is not approved, they will be tarred with the label of being non-democratic. Of course, terms of loans are terms of loans. I don't think terms of that nature can be extended. So either money is made available to avoid a default, or the loans go into default due to non-payment. It has nothing to do with democratic principals, and an automatic. ]

    The referendum is expected to ask Greek citizens if they approve the proposed bailout agreement with Greece’s foreign creditors without touching upon a possible Grexit that could follow if the nation votes no on the deal.
    http://tinyurl.com/p8a...
    ====

    Athens cites reason why it rejected creditors’ latest proposal
    From: Themanews.com by Protothema June 26, 2015

    The Greek government issued one of its now infamous “non papers” to detail the reasons why it rejected a new proposal by creditors on Friday for a five-month extension of the current (and soon to end) bailout agreement.

    The latest proposal was tied to a new 15-billion-euro credit line. Athens underlined the proposal would merely create financing within the five-month period, which would lead — in its estimate — to a third memorandum.

    The SYRIZA government also maintained that the latest proposal includes recessionary and destructive measures.

    The Greek prime minister’s statement was echoed by a government source in Athens, who told reporters the Greek PM will not accept funding that only covers pending obligations to creditors.

    “There are alternatives on the table, what is important is the whole package of the deal,” the source was quoted as saying.
    http://tinyurl.com/qgm...
    ===

    I saw parts of the 'deal' that were published, and it looked like a typical 'can kicking' exercise where the Troika would provide funding through the next five months. I don't know what it had to say about Greek pension cuts and particularly the required primary surplus at the end of each year. I know it did not include any provisions for debt relief.

    Now we will see if the ECB extends ELA funding for the Greek banks. If they don't expect capital controls to be placed on all the Greek banks.

    Meanwhile:
    Greeks are lining up at Bank ATMs. http://tinyurl.com/o7s...
    An announcement on the Greek Alpha Bank web site says that "immediate transfers will not be available".
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 400: June 22, 2015 [View instapost]
    Rick, heat is one problem. But cold is another. What do you think will happen to those batteries in their vented battery boxes under overnight freezing conditions? It seems that locking into a passive type cooling system (i.e., open air vents) would make the batteries more vulnerable to cold and contamination issues.

    For example, a truck goes through a large pot hole loaded with salty water and the battery compartments, located low to the ground, are exposed to large amounts of salty water due to road salt. Could a battery short under those conditions? If large amounts of salt water enter those battery compartments what would be expected?

    As an engineer, do you think its advisable that truck operators have access to temperature conditions in the battery boxes? Nothing fancy, perhaps just a christmas tree display with auditory signal on red or blue?

    I totally agree with what you are getting at. Should issues like this be the responsibility of the battery manufacturer?

    On the other side there is the 'good will' issue. You have battery inventory sitting around exposed to shelf rot and no customers. In time, those batteries will be written off. Why not replace the destroyed batteries and write them off as demos providing help to your only active customer?
    Jun 24, 2015. 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Senate Passes Obamatrade Fast-Track Bill.
    Jun 23, 2015. 02:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    On Nvax's move in the past few days.

    From back in November of 2014....
    Today's announcement of the initiation of the Phase 1 RSV F Vaccine pediatric trial, delivers on our stated goal of starting RSV F Vaccine trials in all three of our target populations, during the third and fourth quarters of 2014.

    With the initiation of clinical trials in pregnant women, elderly subjects and children, we position our RSV F Vaccine franchise to deliver important clinical results in the second and third quarter of 2015

    RSV is a significant cause of pediatric respiratory disease, including pneumonia, bronchiolitis and recurrent wheezing. http://tinyurl.com/nqj...
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator May 23, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    On Nvax's move in the past few days.

    From back in November of 2014....
    Today's announcement of the initiation of the Phase 1 RSV F Vaccine pediatric trial, delivers on our stated goal of starting RSV F Vaccine trials in all three of our target populations, during the third and fourth quarters of 2014.

    With the initiation of clinical trials in pregnant women, elderly subjects and children, we position our RSV F Vaccine franchise to deliver important clinical results in the second and third quarter of 2015

    RSV is a significant cause of pediatric respiratory disease, including pneumonia, bronchiolitis and recurrent wheezing. http://tinyurl.com/nqj...
    ===
    So either someone knows something, or people are throwing the dice. The shorts are likely reacting to the size of the throw.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 1, 2015 To ??? [View instapost]
    New Deal Proposed:
    The Greek government's new deal promises a primary budget surplus in line with Troika demands: 1 percent gross domestic product this year, 2 percent in 2016 and 3 percent in 2017. [Those are impossible numbers, but that's what the deal says.]

    The new deal offers to eliminate early retirement options while raising the sales tax and imposing higher levies on the wealthy.

    The agreement also introduces a new tax for companies with annual profit of more than 500,000 euros ($568,000)

    [Don't know yet how much the taxes will supposedly be raised.]

    Something that is still under "negotiation" is a value-added tax on catering and hotels. That increase in VAT's is supposed to satisfy demands for an additional 1 percent of tax revenues.
    ===

    Let's see now...

    * Hit the Greek economy, that has newly entered recession, with higher taxes?

    * Hit hotels with those new taxes PLUS VAT increases. This will hit Greece's tourist economy, the only business in Greece that seems to be making money?

    * No agreement on structural changes required for this to work? For example, where are the performance benchmarks for tax collections?

    * No agreement on sale of country assets like airports and such necessary to decrease the size of the primary debt?

    * Primary budget surplus increases when the Greek economy has just re-entered recession? One percent per year increases!?? What happens when these totally unrealistic primary budget surplus increases don't happen?

    * On top of this, the IMF has not been in on these negotiations. We know the IMF wants debt relief. There is no mention of debt relief. No agreement by the IMF, no deal.

    The lack of performance benchmarks and agreement on sales of country assets in conjunction with those completely unrealistic primary budget surplus increases raises all sorts of RED FLAGS.

    On top of those red flags, there is no mention of compliance mechanisms. There is no way Germany will allow funding to be provided without supervision of the Greek budget. In other words, call it by any name, but they will require a Troika.

    And if the tax revenues don't come up to their nonsensical projections, the shortfalls have to be made up by further cuts in spending and sale of assets.

    To me, this "agreement" is designed to force a change in the Greek government. Reason - I can't see any way this is going to be approved by the current government. The inclusion of that new tax levy on large businesses seems designed to force the "New Democracy" party to vote against the agreement as well.

    Why would Tsipras accept this? My guess is that the threat of the removal of ELA funding was basically a gun to his head. The amount of ELA funding recently exceeded the amount of assets in the Greek banks. That means all future ELA funding was on the ECB cuff as there were no further Greek bank collateral coverage. If the ELA funding was removed, the Greek banking system would immediately collapse

    So what's next? I see NO way this is going to get passed by the current Greek government. I also don't believe this will be acceptable to the IMF. Tsipras has to know this. So what's his game? Will he go to the people with a new election or referendum, basically putting the basic question on the line? Membership in the EU, or default?

    Greek markets have popped on the news of an agreement as the Media beat the drum and toot the horns.

    I believe the celebrations and market pop is premature.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 400: June 22, 2015 [View instapost]
    Still watching.
    Jun 22, 2015. 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    That note is secured by a first priority lien on the companies IP AND all the capital assets used for the production of the carbon electrodes.

    That means any future financing will have to be unsecured, or a deal would have to be struck with the note holder. In other words, the note holder is basically in financial control of the company.
    Jun 21, 2015. 01:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 1, 2015 To ??? [View instapost]
    The ECB approved a 1.8 bln euros increase in Greek ELA today.
    http://tinyurl.com/pnk...

    This is smaller than the Greeks wanted.

    How much ELA funding can the Greeks withdraw?
    Right now it appears to be about 95B. They are now up to 85.9B or about 90% of the limit. Or put another way they have another 9.1B. http://tinyurl.com/pdm...
    ===
    How long is that expected to last?
    Well, Greek deposit withdrawals, in the past 7 days, have averaged .71B per day. That gives them another 12 days. Which magically takes us to the end of the June. Interesting coincidence how it just happens to work out to the end of June. Of course these numbers are coming from the ECB.

    This is just a very rough estimate. Why am I watching ELA policy so closely?

    ELA funding is my "tell". The ELA funding numbers are an indicator of how much "squeeze" can be applied by the ECB. Greek banks are totally dependent on ELA funding to meet continual Greek deposit withdrawals.

    If the ECB shuts down ELA funding, capital controls have to be applied.
    Jun 19, 2015. 11:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 1, 2015 To ??? [View instapost]
    Greek banks have seen deposit outflows surge to about 2 billion euros over the past three days, with the pace of daily outflows tripling since the collapse of talks at the weekend with creditors, three banking sources told Reuters on Thursday.
    Jun 18, 2015. 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 1, 2015 To ??? [View instapost]
    Spain: Leftist mayors for Madrid, Barcelona
    June 13, 2015

    The new leaders have promised to cut their own salaries, halt homeowner evictions and eliminate perks enjoyed by the rich and famous. http://tinyurl.com/p4j...
    ===
    This is the contagion that the EU is afraid of. Next up - rejection of austerity measures.
    Jun 13, 2015. 07:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    I am getting 'page not found' on that link.
    Jun 13, 2015. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    This came out just yesterday Mercy.

    June 12, 2015 - California tells senior water rights holders to stop pumping. http://tinyurl.com/ouj...

    That's the problem with "rights" assets. When push comes to shove, assets of this nature are subject to seizure by "authorities" in the name of the "common good" followed by years of litigation. Given the uncertainty, I would think the stock price would drop.
    Jun 13, 2015. 03:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    The house rejected the trade bill.
    Jun 12, 2015. 02:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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