FocalPoint Anal...'s  Instablog

This instablog is designed as an interactive News Concentrator devoted to news and discussions about the debt and associated problems in the EU and its member states.

The top portion of the instablog contains useful background information/ charts.

Up-to-date news content is posed in the comments area. So if you are interested in current news, read the comments.

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A picture is often worth a thousand words. Here we have the Percent Economic Growth Rates for three countries: US, Greece, Germany. Note the distinct downturn in the US Economic Growth Rate.

tinyurl.com/25vyea7

Here is National debt as a percentage of GDP in 2009 for the Euro Zone. Look at Greece and Italy.

tinyurl.com/2vvcnxv

Here is Government deficit as a percent of GDP for 2009. Look at Greece and Ireland. Look at UK and Spain.

tinyurl.com/2vvcnxv

Here is the all important Jobs Picture as of March 2010. Look at Greece, Spain, Ireland and France.

tinyurl.com/29grmpy

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EFSF

What is the EFSF?:

The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is a special purpose vehicle financed by members of the Eurozone to combat the European sovereign debt crisis. The €110 billion bailout to Greece is not part of the EFSF guarantees, but a separate commitment.

When you look at the Guarantee commitments by the different euro zone countries [tinyurl.com/3xde35o] you will see something interesting. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (i.e., the PIIGS) account for over one-third (36.7%) of EFSF commitments. All by themselves, Italy and Spain have a financial commitment of almost one-third (29.8%) of the total EFSF commitment.

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(October 23, 2011) I added this nice summary graphic of the Dominoes effect associated with the European debt crisis. You can also see the graphic and the accompanying article with the following link:

(October 23, 2011) Guest Post: The European Financial Crisis In One Graphic: The Dominoes Of Debt. From: Zero Hedge, by: Tyler Durden.tinyurl.com/3ulxgmj

The original copyrighted graphic is from Charles Hugh Smith (" 2011) attinyurl.com/ygsa6j

Added February 9, 2012

Greek General Government Debt Percent GDP
tinyurl.com/73h5q2x

(March 10, 2012) tinyurl.com/7moa6tg

Unemployment for individuals less than 25 rose to 51.1 %, twice as high as three years ago as budget cuts imposed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund as a condition for dealing with the country's debt problems have caused a wave of corporate closures and bankruptcies.

Fantasy Greek GDP Growth Rates:

In the fantasy report "Greece: Preliminary debt Sustainability Analysis" dated February 15, 2012 which I referred to as the "Deus ex machine" report one of the EUs key economic assumptions was that Greek GDP growth in 2012 would be -4.8% and -1% in 2013.

The Greek economy saw growth rates of:

-0.2% in 2008,
-3.3% in 2009,
-3.4% in 2010,
-6.9% in 2011
-7.5% in fourth quarter of 2011.
(Data from John Mauldin report tinyurl.com/7axvcmw)

I plotted the Greek GDP data below and projected the GDP values for 2012 and 2013 based on the current data. I also plotted the Greek GDP projections from the Deus ex machine report - blue line.

There is no Greek stimulus, jobs are in freefall. Which projection do you believe?

(March 29, 2012) Greek Deposit Run Update: Hopeless And Getting Worse. tinyurl.com/8425yf7

============

Added April 27, 2012

Q1 unemployment is now one quarter of the working population or 24.44%, up nearly 2% from the 22.85% as of December 31

(click to enlarge)

Global PMI Changes from March to April 2012

(click to enlarge)

From: ZeroHedge tinyurl.com/76d39dj

FUNDING GAP

(click to enlarge)

From: ZeroHedge - tinyurl.com/88qfjmc

Ten Year Bond Yield Curves as of 7/20/2012

From: The Disciplined Investor tinyurl.com/7yg5zku

(click to enlarge)

Here are some interesting charts on Italy sourced from Bloomberg's BRIEF
August 7, 2012, available on "The Big Picture" site:tinyurl.com/8lty5uj.

I verified the shadow economy figures in the following sourced article about shadow economies:

Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences by FRIEDRICH SCHNEIDER and DOMINIK H. ENSTE, Journal of Economic Literature
Vol. XXXVIII (March 2000) pp. 77-114 tinyurl.com/8fpz6nz.

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Remember, the top portion of this insta contains some useful historical information. CURRENT NEWS is posted in the comments area.

WARNING: This is a no Troll Zone. If you are disruptive, your comments will be deleted.

I changed the name of this Insta on Nov 21, 2010, after Ireland said they are seeking a bailout.

This Instablog is the result of a question by one of the Renegades in OptionsGirl [OG] Quick Chat 90
tinyurl.com/24y6u87

Basically, what I wanted to address was what shoe is going to fall first, the US Dollar, or the Euro... I also wanted to see if there was any evidence for a time estimate with respect to issues for the Euro.

I added more information on August 21, 2010.

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Things are not looking good for Greece. I don't think they are going to be able to service all that debt. Enormous cuts in spending accompanied with increased taxes will likely destabilize their government. Remember, they can't print money as a way out of their debt trap. Investors are going to buy the safest assets in this environment. That should drive Greece's bowering rate higher. Here is some relevant information from a recent Bloomberg article:
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(August 13) Spanish, Greek Bonds Fall on Renewed Growth Concern; Bunds Gain By Anchalee Worrachate

On August 13, the extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold Greek 10-year securities instead of equivalent-maturity German debt, Europe's benchmark, rose 11 basis points to 808 basis points. That's the most since May 7, before the European Union announced a 750 billion-euro financial backstop for the region's most indebted nations.

Concern some European nations would struggle to pay their debts helped boost demand this year for bunds, the region's benchmark securities. Spanish bonds returned 1.5 percent this year and Irish debt 0.5 percent, compared with an 8 percent gain from German securities, according to indexes compiled by European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. Greek bonds lost 19 percent.

Data today showed Spanish banks borrowed a record amount from the European Central Bank in July as investors shunned the indebted nation's lenders. Borrowing rose 3.1 percent to 130.2 billion euros ($167 billion) from 126.3 billion euros in June, according to daily averages compiled by the Bank of Spain.

Spanish bonds are heading for their first weekly loss in five on renewed concern that climbing borrowing costs for Spanish regions put the national budget at risk.

Catalonia, which accounts for a fifth of Spanish gross domestic product, has been shut out of public bond markets since March and the extra yield it pays over national government debt has almost tripled this year.

The yield spread between 10-year Irish bonds and the benchmark German debt widened to 294 basis points today, the most since June 29, as investors bet the government will have to inject more capital into banks, including Anglo Irish Bank Corp.

Ireland's borrowing costs rose at an auction of its six-and eight-month bills yesterday as investors demanded higher compensation for risk facing the government's finances. The country will sell 2014 and 2020 bonds debt next week.tinyurl.com/2dtuc5v
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While the US is in a somewhat similar position, the US can print money, and our bonds have not be rated as junk. The higher the interest rate, the higher the perceived risk. The higher the interest rate, the deeper into the debt trap you go.

I conclude that the Euro will drop relative to the dollar as money seeks less risk. How rapidly will this occur? I think the following chart provides some evidence with respect to timing.

From June 2010 to August 2010 the average ten year Greek bond interest rate went from 64% of its peak crisis level to 85.5% of the peak crisis level.

As of August, the Greek ten year bond interest rate is at the second highest level its been at over the past five years.

If the interest rate is proportional to risk, than in the last three months, the risk level of the Greek ten year bond has increased at an average rate of 7.2% per month [ (85.5 - 64)/3 ].

I suppose a natural accompaniment to shorting the Euro would be to go long on the dollar. This assumes that the debt crisis of the European Union will reach critical mass in advance of the US dollar.

______________________________________________________
Added August 21, 2010

A picture is often worth a thousand words. Here we have the Percent Economic Growth Rates for three countries: US, Greece, Germany. Note the distinct downturn in the US Economic Growth Rate.

tinyurl.com/25vyea7

Here is National debt as a percentage of GDP in 2009 for the Euro Zone. Look at Greece and Italy.

tinyurl.com/2vvcnxv

Here is Government deficit as a percent of GDP for 2009. Look at Greece and Ireland. Look at UK and Spain.

tinyurl.com/2vvcnxv

Here is the all important Jobs Picture as of March 2010. Look at Greece, Spain, Ireland and France.

tinyurl.com/29grmpy

=================
Added September 29, 2011.

What is the EFSF?:

The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is a special purpose vehicle financed by members of the Eurozone to combat the European sovereign debt crisis. The €110 billion bailout to Greece is not part of the EFSF guarantees, but a separate commitment.

When you look at the Guarantee commitments by the different euro zone countries [tinyurl.com/3xde35o] you will see something interesting. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (i.e., the PIIGS) account for over one-thrid (36.7%) of EFSF commitments. All by themselves, Italy and Spain have a financial commitment of almost one-thrid (29.8%) of the total EFSF commitment.

___________
(October 23, 2011) I added this nice summary graphic of the Dominoes effect associated with the European debt crisis. You can also see the graphic and the accompanying article with the following link:

(October 23, 2011) Guest Post: The European Financial Crisis In One Graphic: The Dominoes Of Debt. From: Zero Hedge, by: Tyler Durden.tinyurl.com/3ulxgmj

The original copyrighted graphic is from Charles Hugh Smith (" 2011) attinyurl.com/ygsa6j

Added February 9, 2012

Greek General Government Debt Percent GDP
tinyurl.com/73h5q2x

(March 10, 2012) Europe's Scariest Chart Just Got Scarier. From: Zero Hedge, by Tyler Durden. tinyurl.com/7moa6tg

Unemployment for individuals less than 25 rose to 51.1 %, twice as high as three years ago as budget cuts imposed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund as a condition for dealing with the country's debt problems have caused a wave of corporate closures and bankruptcies.

Fantasy Greek GDP Growth Rates:

In the fantasy report "Greece: Preliminary debt Sustainability Analysis" dated February 15, 2012 which I referred to as the "Deus ex machine" report one of the EUs key economic assumptions was that Greek GDP growth in 2012 would be -4.8% and -1% in 2013.

The Greek economy saw growth rates of:

-0.2% in 2008,
-3.3% in 2009,
-3.4% in 2010,
-6.9% in 2011
-7.5% in fourth quarter of 2011.
(Data from John Mauldin report tinyurl.com/7axvcmw)

I plotted the Greek GDP data below and projected the GDP values for 2012 and 2013 based on the current data. I also plotted the Greek GDP projections from the Deus ex machine report - blue line.

There is no Greek stimulus, jobs are in freefall. Which projection do you believe?

(March 29, 2012) Greek Deposit Run Update: Hopeless And Getting Worse. tinyurl.com/8425yf7

============

Added April 27, 2012

Q1 unemployment is now one quarter of the working population or 24.44%, up nearly 2% from the 22.85% as of December 31

(click to enlarge)

Global PMI Changes from March to April 2012

(click to enlarge)

From: ZeroHedge tinyurl.com/76d39dj

FUNDING GAP

(click to enlarge)

From: ZeroHedge - tinyurl.com/88qfjmc

Ten Year Bond Yield Curves as of 7/20/2012

From: The Disciplined Investor tinyurl.com/7yg5zku

(click to enlarge)

Here are some interesting charts on Italy sourced from Bloomberg's BRIEF
August 7, 2012, available on "The Big Picture" site: tinyurl.com/8lty5uj.

I verified the shadow economy figures in the following sourced article about shadow economies:

Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences by FRIEDRICH SCHNEIDER and DOMINIK H. ENSTE, Journal of Economic Literature
Vol. XXXVIII (March 2000) pp. 77-114 tinyurl.com/8fpz6nz.

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

----------------------------
WARNING: This is a no Troll Zone. If you are disruptive, your comments will be deleted.

Explanation:

I will post Swine-Flu and related medical articles under this heading. The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link. A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area. At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

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Update History:
Added definition of Reassortment
Added definiton of R0 (R Naught)
Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
Added definition of EUA and PREP act
Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
Alphabetized stocks in the tags
Updated the play by stock list
Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
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Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:

Swine Flu News Concentrator July 30, 2011 to June 13, 2012 tinyurl.com/6nfvspe

Swine Flu News Concentrator May 12, 2011 to July 29, 2011 tinyurl.com/3m7hcfp

Swine Flu News Concentrator March 22, 2011 to May 12, 2011
tinyurl.com/3hgogm4

Swine Flu News Concentrator February 20, 2011 to March 22, 2011
tinyurl.com/4unv2hy

Swine Flu News Concentrator January 28, 2011 to February 20, 2011
tinyurl.com/4u9nlrz

Swine Flu News Concentrator January 11, 2011 to January 28, 2011
tinyurl.com/4maxxdv

Swine Flu News Concentrator December 18 (2010) to January 11, 2011
tinyurl.com/4gs9xzl

Swine Flu News Concentrator November 11 (2010) to December 18, 2010
tinyurl.com/22pykd8

Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 (2010)
tinyurl.com/29eflnpJ

Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)
http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6

Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
tinyurl.com/25lqvfx

Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy

Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
tinyurl.com/ykba7dl

Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4

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Some Definitions:

What is Reassortment

When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment.

A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.

What is R naught (R 0)

How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught").

Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.

Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

Cytokine Storm -
When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their "vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

What is the PREP Act?
The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services ("Secretary") to issue a declaration ("PREP Act declaration") that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary's declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

What are Clinical Trials:
Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
Back to Top

What is a Protocol:
Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

* The reason for doing the trial
* How many people will be in the trial
* Who is eligible to take part in the trial
* What study drugs participants will need to take
* What medical tests participants will have and how often
* What information will be gathered

Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
seasonal flu vaccine per egg

Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.

http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

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Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

I - Vaccines / Prevention
1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NVAX) (VICL) (NVS) (INO)
2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (BAX) (BDX)
4) Outsourced production plays
5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (CVM) (NNVC) (INO)
7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (CBM) (AEMD)
2) ICU treatments (BCRX) (GSK) (ROG)
III - Population Avoidance:
1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (APT) (MMM) (CLX) (ECL) (PURE)

IV - Testing do you have it? (GPRO)
1) Test kits - (DGX)

V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
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Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
PITA to work with.

Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites

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Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:

2011 H1N1 US Flu Outbreak Map:
Here is a link that gives information by US states. The Link is from DoubleGuns
tinyurl.com/6khyjq
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Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

IF YOU ARE ILL -
* Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

* Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

* Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

* Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

* Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
*Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

* Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

* Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

* Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

* Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
_____________________

MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

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Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days

Disclosure: (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)

Disease outbreak map on Globalincident.com

tinyurl.com/c8f3do

Link from Guns and OG.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.