ForexLive's  Instablog

The GBPUSD (FXB) has also had trend like symptoms to the downside today. The intraday declines (see chart below) have been accompanied by shallow-ish corrections indicative of a market where the shorts are in control. Over the last hour or so, the price has been testing the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the 1.5610 and there is some reluctance to fall. Support defines risk and risk is limited. So profit taking may look to take the pair up.

I will be watching the 1.5629-37 area for clues for the continuation of the trend. If the price cannot extend above this area it says to me the shorts are still in control. Look for further selling. If the correction level is broken, the trend move is likely to consolidate for a while.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/06/21/gbpusd-testsstalls-near-200-hour-ma/

The EURUSD (FXE) finally made the break away from the 100 hour MA. Now the shorts/sellers will be looking for the price to remain below the 100 hour MA and for the next targets to be reached to keep the trend in tact.

The next key target comes in at the 200 hour MA at the 1.2600 level. The price tested the 200 hour MA on Monday and Tuesday (at lower levels) and bounced. This will be another key test for the sellers to get through. NOTE the range is still narrow for the day at 89 pips vs an average of 126 over the last 20 days. So there is room to roam if the sellers stay in control.

Looking at the daily chart, the highs held the 38.2% of the 2012 range. Bearish. The low so far has stalled at the Jan 2012 low at 1.2623 (remember that old chestnut). The trend line support line comes in at 1.2596 (close to 200 hour MA). So if the trend is to continue and the price stays below that 100 hour MA today, this area becomes the key support target from both the hourly and daily perspective.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/06/21/and-the-break-finally-occurs-in-the-eurusd/

For the third day in a row, the trading range entering the NY day is narrow with EUR/USD (FXE) high to low trading range at 67 pips. On Tuesday, the price trended higher. Yesterday, the range was extended above and below as a result of the FOMC volatility. What is there today to get the range extended?

From a technical perspective the price is below yesterday's close at the 1.2704, but entered the NY trading day near the high for the London session. The price has since fallen back to the midpoint of the London's trading range at the 1.26695 level - rejecting that move higher. There was a report that UK banks might be downgraded that has contributed to the risk off trade.

With the market skittish and non trending, I take the clue from that action to conclude it (i.e., the market") does not know which way it wants to go from here. The buyers and the sellers are balanced. A decision will have to be made at some point between ultimately getting above the 1.2740-45 ceiling or moving (and staying below) the 100 hour MA/50% retracement area (see hourly chart). For clues, I will be eying the key technical levels and look for a break. Traders could also use the extremes for better trade location (assuming no position).

On the downside, I have to continue to give the 100 hour MA and the 50% retracement the respect on the downside. Those levels come in at the 1.2652 and 1.26485 level respectively. Yesterday, the price dipped below these levels but moved back higher. Today, the price did the same. Move below these levels and a break of the low from yesterday at the 1.2634 opens the door for further downside. Trend line at 1.2624 and the 200 hour MA at the 1.2600 would be the next targets.

On the topside, the close from yesterday at 1.2704 and the topside trendline at 1.2714 will be the closest key hurdles to overcome. Above that the highs for the week at 1.2729, 1.2741 and 1.2745 will need to be breached to open the upside.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/06/21/eurusd-skittish-in-up-and-down-trading/