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Forward View Consulting, located in Virginia, is not your typical investment research provider. We're never interested in hot stocks or Wall Street's darlings of the moment. Every research note and report we publish will be based on a long-term perspective and fundamental research methodologies.... More
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Forward View Consulting
My blog:
The Forward View
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  • Forward View: What We're All About

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    Forward View initiated our Elite research subscription service through Seeking Alpha on March 22nd. Since then, we've posted 37 research notes, stock reports and investment ideas. That's an average of one new article every three days! We focus on providing Wall Street-quality analyses at an affordable price, and Forward View is a sell-side firm with a global institutional investor readership base. JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Blackrock (NYSE:BLK) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) are just a few of the firms that access our research. Despite our pleasure to provide services to these huge companies, Forward View has no desire to be an exclusive Wall Street-oriented research firm. Instead, we're passionate about offering our services to smaller asset managers, financial advisors and the general investing public. We keep our own costs low (no fancy office and no Forward View jet) in order to sell Forward View Elite subscriptions on Seeking Alpha for just $275 per year/$34 per month.

    Let's look at our research highlights thus far:

    One of our initial articles was a field trip report about our owner's visit to the Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) Center of Excellence in Virginia. One key takeaway:

    "After closing the tour with a discussion of the coal industry's future, I can say that Joy is hopeful for a rebound in the demand for mining equipment. Unfortunately, the Duffield COE's management team believes that a meaningful coal industry recovery may be at least two years away."

    On April 9th, we analyzed a competitor's laughable jubilation about the opportunity for RetailMeNot (NASDAQ:SALE) to benefit from a transition toward mobile device usage:

    "As long as 25% of attribution is lost because RetailMeNot cookies don't work on mobile devices, the increasing use of smartphones and phablets won't boost the stock. Trading high-margin desktop visits for low-margin mobile activity is a negative."

    May 4th saw us sharing the internal notes we collected during an analysts-only LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) conference call:

    "Didn't anticipate such a large Lynda deferred revenue hit. Won't swing back. Will earn Lynda revenue when subscriptions renew."

    Our Cabela's (NYSE:CAB) 1Q earnings analysis introduced the Forward View Model 2.0 to our readers:

    "As we've noted previously, Cabela's financial services business is the hidden gem in this retailer. Finance revenue climbed almost 25% y/y and everything points to additional strong growth in the future."

    We decided to add a humorous plea to Apple [AAPL] in our otherwise-analytical research note on a potential acquisition of Yelp (NYSE:YELP) by Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) or Google (NASDAQ:GOOG):

    "Tim Cook, if you're reading this research, please call us! Open up your silo of money! We'd be glad to suggest multiple "Yelpple" synergy opportunities. Siri might be particularly fun again with a Yelp integration."

    One of our favorite stocks is Westmoreland Coal (NASDAQ:WLB), and we used an announcement on the company's MLP (NYSE:WMLP) as the basis for a June 3rd update:

    "It's a buyer's market for coal assets, and we believe that WLB will take advantage of the situation to maximize its own operational footprint. (Here's our suggested hashtag for the WLB strategy: #CleverInCoal) Buy WLB for a core energy holding or choose the riskier, but potential home-run, of WMLP if you're willing to accept its subordination to WLB."

    On June 13th, we spoke with the head of Business Development at Oberweis Securities. We then shared our notes with subscribers to warn against buying OBMCX while presenting our favorable opinion of OBIOX:

    "Heavy mathematics in the [OBIOX] risk analysis [methodology] with factor regressions. 1.35 upside capture and 0.95 downside capture. Very tax-efficient portfolio despite turnover. Trading for tax-savings and end-of-the-year tax loss-harvesting. 2014 had no capital gains distribution."

    June 24th saw us provide an analysis of Walter Energy's (NYSE:WLT) impending bankruptcy. This short candidate has been regularly covered by Forward View, and we most recently noted:

    "[T]he company's cash cost of U.S. metallurgical coal production actually rose over $5 per ton y/y to $67.71 in Q1. Walter's cash cost of met coal sales also climbed $1 per ton y/y to $96.85 in Q1. Meanwhile, the firm's average selling price for U.S. met coal plummeted over $20 per ton y/y in Q1 and stood at $106.35."

    Most recently, we published the Forward View Model Portfolio on July 1st:

    "Forward View is pleased to announce that we've replaced our Investment Watchlist with the Forward View Model Portfolio. We believe that this new product offers improved analytical value and enhanced performance tracking."

    Our subscribers will receive a complete analysis of Jarden's (NYSE:JAH) most recent acquisition later today.

    As you can see, our service combines traditional sell-side analysis with investment ideas you can immediately use for trades. Our goal is to generate alpha for your portfolio(s) while providing witty commentary on financial topics in the news. We're not your typical research firm, and we intend to maintain our independence as well as our outsider perspective. We look forward to having you as a client, and we recognize there would be no Forward View without our readers!

    Thank you!

    Jul 14 1:02 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Forward View Model 2.0

    Our newly-upgraded Forward View earnings and valuation model prepares us well for the future. It's currently used for CAB, JAH, JOY, LNKD, SALE, WLB and YELP. We're very excited for you to see the enhanced detail and analysis provided by the new model, so we're offering a 50% discount on research ordered through the Forward View website. Use coupon code "FVC50" at checkout:

    Jun 05 11:18 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Walter Energy Update

    We are thoroughly convinced that Walter Energy (NYSE:WLT) won't survive 2015. After issuing almost $1.8B in new debt from 2013 & 14, we believe that the credit market is saturated for WLT, and additional issues would require a prohibitively high interest rate. A company that's offering PIK toggle notes has almost certainly exhausted all other debt options. If we assume that further capital injections are unlikely for WLT, it's easy to see that the company will burn through its $468.5M cash pile in the coming months. $250M+ in cash interest is due in 2015 alone, and the company's mines are still yielding operational losses. Competitors can produce and ship a ton of met coal several dollars per ton cheaper than WLT, too. We do expect a bankruptcy filing from Walter Energy in the next quarter or two. The time is drawing near.

    Mar 14 4:17 AM | Link | 7 Comments
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  • Would you like to read our notes from the invitation-only $LNKD 2Q earnings call? Subscribe to Forward View:
    about 9 hours ago
  • On the $LNKD conference call right now. Are interested in reading our research report? If so, ask us and we will DM a link when it's done.
    about 12 hours ago
  • Read our new $YELP article on: "Yelp: Usage Growing, Profits Vanishing"
    about 14 hours ago
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