Seeking Alpha

Forward View's  Instablog

Forward View
Send Message
Forward View Consulting, located in Virginia, is not your typical investment research provider. We're never interested in hot stocks or Wall Street's darlings of the moment. Every research note and report we publish will be based on a long-term perspective and fundamental research methodologies.... More
My company:
Forward View Consulting
My blog:
The Forward View
View Forward View's Instablogs on:
  • Forward View Model 2.0

    Our newly-upgraded Forward View earnings and valuation model prepares us well for the future. It's currently used for CAB, JAH, JOY, LNKD, SALE, WLB and YELP. We're very excited for you to see the enhanced detail and analysis provided by the new model, so we're offering a 50% discount on research ordered through the Forward View website. Use coupon code "FVC50" at checkout:

    Jun 05 11:18 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Walter Energy Update

    We are thoroughly convinced that Walter Energy (NYSE:WLT) won't survive 2015. After issuing almost $1.8B in new debt from 2013 & 14, we believe that the credit market is saturated for WLT, and additional issues would require a prohibitively high interest rate. A company that's offering PIK toggle notes has almost certainly exhausted all other debt options. If we assume that further capital injections are unlikely for WLT, it's easy to see that the company will burn through its $468.5M cash pile in the coming months. $250M+ in cash interest is due in 2015 alone, and the company's mines are still yielding operational losses. Competitors can produce and ship a ton of met coal several dollars per ton cheaper than WLT, too. We do expect a bankruptcy filing from Walter Energy in the next quarter or two. The time is drawing near.

    Mar 14 4:17 AM | Link | 7 Comments
  • CONSOL Energy Investor Day: Gas Vs. Coal

    June 12th Investor Day Highlights Continued Emphasis on E&P Versus Coal

    Gas growth - CONSOL expects Marcellus production (55 Bcfe in 2013) CAGR 60% through '16 and Utica (0.8 Bcfe in 2013) at 270% through '16.

    E&P Capex Will Climb - $1.11B of E&P capex will be needed in 2014 (up 15% y/y) to fund CONSOL's production increases. E&P capex will comprise 73% of the company's planned capital spending and bodes well for ABB, AME, EMR and HON.

    Coal Capex Will Drop - After investing significant capital in its three remaining coal complexes (two thermal, one met), CONSOL is now satisfied with reaping FCF from the mines. The only coal-related capital spending will be $390M of maintenance capex, down 15% from 2013.

    Funding the Evolution - CONSOL describes using a combination of cash flow from coal production, non-core land/coal asset sales, cash received from mines sold in 2013 and a newly announced MLP to finance continued gas exploration and drilling. The MLP is a JV with Noble Energy that will focus on midstream gathering from the Marcellus Shale with a public offering in late 3Q or early 4Q.

    Exiting Coal? - Industry sources indicate that CONSOL is interested in selling all of its remaining coal complexes, but we can't identify a domestic buyer with cash on-hand. Thus, the mines could be sold to a foreign investor. CONSOL's Buchanan mine in VA recently experienced a layoff, and its met coal sells into a bad market. Its future operation only makes sense if it continues to support, and benefit from, coal-bed methane production. The company's Miller Creek Complex in WV is a marginal asset, thus leaving the Bailey Complex in PA as the real crown jewel in coal.

    Take-away: CONSOL's shift toward natural gas mirrors the U.S.'s increasing reliance on gas as opposed to coal. This trend will likely continue. Shale plays offer strong growth opportunities, and we remain interested in profiting from America's energy renaissance.

    Research Leadership:

    Brian K. Langenberg, CFA

    Nathan E. Yates, Research Associate

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: CNX, Coal, Gas, E P, Energy
    Jul 08 3:33 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
  1. Walter Energy Update (7 Comments)
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.