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Francesco Checcacci

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  • The End Of Carry Reloaded: Gold - Hold Your Fire [View article]
    Hello. Thanks for your question.
    Sometimes I tend to take things as 'common knowledge'.
    Anyway you will need to work a bit starting form the following data:
    -Fed balance sheet (here:
    -Flow of funds (here:
    -BIS flow data:
    Also you can find several papers and studies from research institutions.

    Hope this helps you.
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: New Boundaries [View article]
    If you would like to have trading tips you should contact a registered advisor in your jurisdiction. I cannot give you investment advice since I cannot take responsibilities. Sorry but this is the law in most jurisdictions and the guideline of the CFA Institute.
    May 14, 2014. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: New Boundaries [View article]
    The range is not very likely to be broken on the lower bound, as the cost of mining on average is apparently something above 1200 USD/oz. In that case most companies would just stop digging, supply would shrink and price would adjust upward.
    On the upper bound, on the other hand, the range could be broken for all sort of reasons. The current geopolitical situation and its possible (temporary?) disruption of globalisation is, IMHO, not a very high percentage probability, but not fully priced in at the moment.
    For a take on this, you can have a look at my previous article on SA:
    May 14, 2014. 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Very good and informative article.
    Some days ago I gave my two cents on the same topic. Essentially I think there was a massive dollar carry trade which benefited emerging stocks and precious metals, and this is now likely to be reversed.
    If anyone is interested in the full text, it can be found here:
    Jul 11, 2013. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The Great Carry: Winners And Losers In A Post-QE World [View article]
    Interesting question about the yen. Without looking into it thoroughly I will just say what comes to mind first: there are loads of assets denominated in dollars (it is the world's reserve currency) but virtually none in Yen. The exception is Japanese Government bonds, which in fact are arguably still strongly underpriced. Essentially the sheer number of dollar-denominated assets available could have made people hold less dollars than they otherwise could have pushing the USD down. Again, these are just some thoughts which would need to be verified, so take it as an initial working hypothesis.
    As for saying the commodity super cycle is over, I would be more careful and say it is definitely taking a breather while prices adjust towards reality, especially for precious metals. As for instrumental commodities, such as oil and base metals, it would depend on where the world's growth is heading. I would add that there is the possibility, if the Fed gets the QE exit even slightly wrong, that commodities might not be denominated in dollars in some years, at least not exclusively. Very difficult to predict what will happen even to world growth, especially given what is happening in China. Interesting times ahead, indeed.
    Jun 25, 2013. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The Great Carry: Winners And Losers In A Post-QE World [View article]
    I tend to agree with you on most things. I would still doubt the Fed will disregard the wealth effect on consumers coming from a significant retrenchment of US equities. By the way, there is a Fed equity model to show the Fed positively is looking at equities (although the use of the model is controversial and I have my doubts on its absolute validity). FYI:
    Jun 24, 2013. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In 2013: Remember 1977 [View article]
    Although I agree with the general idea that debasing the currency leads to higher commodity prices, I would also consider that this time, unlike in the 1970s, the US is implementing fracking technologies which seem likely to structurally reduce the energy bill.
    In this case gold would be better positioned to rise than energy, as i see it currently behaving as currency.
    Further, some analysts are predicting an energetically independent US in 15-20 years. If that is the case, it might not be the end of the bull market.
    What are your views on the above?
    Feb 27, 2013. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment