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Francis Fiduk

 
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  • Fixing Wall Street: Abolish Credit Default Swaps [View article]
    While CDS was the big thing that essentially broke the banks, the problem wasn't the CDS in itself, it was banks overleveraging as much as possible. Ban CDS and the overleverage problem simply moves somewhere else.

    The problem lies in leverage, not CDS.
    Nov 6 09:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Tragedy Probably Will Be Averted [View article]
    Greek one year bonds are at about 200% yield. I hope you have something in them as a gauranteed 200% return would make anyone absurdly rich in a short amount of time.

    If you don't have anything in them then I don't know how serious I can take this article.
    Nov 5 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Be Bankrupt Within A Year [View article]
    No, that's not what churn is at all.

    When a company has a net gain in subscribers, churn is the numbers of subscribers lost. For example, if you have 100 subscribers, and end the quarter with 110 and had 1% churn, this means that you gained 13, and lost 3 subscribers.

    When a company has a net loss in subscribers, churn is the number of subscribers gained. For example, if you have 100 subscribers, and end the quarter with 90, and had 1% churn, this means that you lost 13, and gained 3 subscribers.

    Netflix doens't want to report this number because people claim to understand the metric and write about it, while not understanding it at all.

    They also don't have to be "new" subscribers, they could be old subscribers rejoining after they put their Netflix subscription on hold for whatever reason.
    Oct 22 06:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What happens in Europe is irrelevant to U.S. banks, says Dick Bove. It may mean everything to investors, but it has nothing to do with the operating earnings of these companies. Regional banks, trust banks and national banks are all doing quite well. His top picks: U.S. Bancorp (USB), PNC (PNC), BNY Mellon (BK), State Street (STT) and Northern Trust (NTRS). (video)  [View news story]
    This guy has clearly never heard of Credit Default Swaps.
    Oct 22 05:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Congress Would Be Wise To Extend Unemployment Benefits [View article]
    I agree.

    We should extend unemployment benefits from 99 weeks to 2340 weeks. This way no company will ever have their bottomline impacted. The best thing about this proposal is that the impact shouldn't be felt for about 50+ years, at which time we won't be around to feel it! A win-win all around I say.
    Oct 18 05:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Analyst Sandbag Factor [View article]
    I found my analysis to be right inbetween wall street and blogger analysis.

    Mine is 31.09 revenue and 8.18 EPS.

    Thanks for the article!
    Oct 18 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fixing Wall Street: Cutting The Gordian Knot [View article]
    Excellent article Tom.

    I'd like to briefly discuss your first paragraph:

    "I visited the website, and was disappointed that the movement has no formal agenda. They do have a concern that the system is run to benefit a small minority - 1% by their reckoning - but any further grievances are not clearly articulated."

    The simple fact is the average American couldn't understand a single paragraph of what you wrote. This type of writing is simply above their heads (not that they couldn't learn, but just that they haven't). What exists among the average citizen is the knowledge and gut feeling that something is wrong. That something exists on wall street and in finances, but they can not articulate what exactly is wrong.

    In my opinion, what occupy wall street lacks is a leader. Someone who both understands these types of problems, but who can communicate it in terms everyone can understand. Until a leader steps up and can outline their goals, they will continue to flounder. I believe your points would be an excellent starting ground for this.
    Oct 18 04:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Be Bankrupt Within A Year [View article]
    A sign as sure as any that there aren't any revenue problems.
    Oct 13 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Be Bankrupt Within A Year [View article]
    Liqddynamite:

    If you don't think subscriber loss will make up for prices increases, then what kind of subscriber loss are you thinking? We already know the revenue is somewhere up to but less than +60%. On the other hand we know at last check NFLX was claiming a loss of customers to about 24 million, a projected 2% loss.

    In other words, in order for your opinion to be correct, NFLX needs to have the revenue bump only generate about 1%. Lets get crazy and say they go down to 23 million customers, then NFLX needs to generate under 6% additional revenue for your opinion to be correct.

    A very slim chance that this price change only brings in 6% or less additional revenue.
    Oct 11 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    "1. They have nearly $4 billion in debt, including off-balance sheet content obligations. A little over $2 billion is due in 2012."

    I was responding specifically to this statement. Sorry for not making that clear.
    Oct 10 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    Ok I see what you're saying now.

    In that case, yes, gross subs added 1 year ago is roughly equal to gross subs lost now. I don't believe you can draw a straight line with that correlation into the futre though. You said it yourself, gross subs gained in a quarter will eventually even out as the market is nearly saturated. At the same time however gross subs lost should also even out for the same reason.
    Oct 10 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belgium's government announces it will buy the Belgian banking business of Dexia for €4B and provide 60% of the guarantees for the rest (approx. €90B) of the parent group's assets, with France and Luxembourg apparently guaranteeing the remainder. S&P futures +1%, euro +0.5% at $1.3349.  [View news story]
    Look for possible credit downgrades of anyone absorbing that bad debt. Credit downgrades = higher interest rates = more pressure on a system that has been very weak as of late.
    Oct 10 05:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    If there is nothing on streaming to watch, and every movie you want to watch is on DVD, then why pay for streaming at all? Seems like a fairly simple solution to me. If that's the case, then this split actually lowered prices for you.
    Oct 10 05:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    The ratio of subs leaving to gross adds isn't even remotely close to 1:1. If it were, Netflix wouldnt have seen its customer base have a net growth of about 10 million customers over the last 4 quarters.
    Oct 10 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Could Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    Netflix only has 200 million on its balance sheet. Netflix doesn't have anywhere near 4 Billion in obligations. I'd love to see how you came up with that figure.
    Oct 10 03:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
143 Comments
157 Likes