Francis Schutte

Has Gold Fallen in a Secular Bear Trend?

There is growing evidence indicating that there was unannounced intervention in support of the dollar.
Given a sharp drop in euro holdings in the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund, it seems that the U.S. Treasury may have intervened in the currency markets, possibly out of fear that a more significant run on the dollar could have resulted.
Any intervention deal would more likely have been arranged with the Saudis during the recent Bush-Cheney visits. All that this would have required is sufficient buying commencing in mid-July to squeeze USD shorts and creating a momentum move on the upside. This action had also implications for Gold.

Has Gold Fallen in a Secular Bear Trend?

One cannot compare todays Gold with the 1980-2003 era where we had a secular bear market and a low market participation.

There ain't a split second in my mind that ETF's and other derivatives have together with e-trading, highly increased the leverage and hence also the volatibility on Gold. for the future, better keep you breast wet.

Have We Reached the Turning Point?

Stock markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2001. Once sector after another is breaking down but nothing comes down in a straight line. Therefore, we now and then see a correction. All of this has been happening while interest rates were also coming down...Does anybody know what is going to happen when they decide go up again?

Bond Expert: Monday Outlook

Excellent article, but who wants to invest in bonds when the real interest rates are negative and the nominal interest rates are extremely low and probably only can go up?

Time To Sell This Bear Market Bounce?

It has been a while since I have seen so much negative sentiment about Gold and Gold shares. Think that many will be in for a huge surprise as we near the end of this year.

While Gartman is Goldless, I Still Itch for Commodities

Over the last 7 years, Gold has simply been one of the best investments one could make. Amazing that some people still not understand it and fail to express the price of investment instruments, good and services in any other currency than the Dollar. Whatever is said, Gold and Silver have since thousand of years been the only Real Money.

IAMGold Says "I Am Profitable"

Apparently not the right time to write this kind of article. Sentiment is (incorrectly) extremely bearish. Maybe you should try to write another one in a couple of months from now. This is the way the markets are.

Venezuela Gold Miners: 'Misappraised'

I think Duude is more than correct with his comment. Chavez is about to ruin Venezuela like Mugabe ruined Zimbabwe. I would not invest a cent in this country.

Jaguar Mining: Solid Earnings Should Bring Bounce

Excellent article and even the TA of the chart looks nice. Even better is the fact that I am the only one commenting your article.

Gold (and Gartman) Haunting Some Investors

A pity this kind of Gartman static fills the air. Sometimes the reactions on this forum are a lot better than what the talking heads have to offer. Fundamentals don't change overnight and cycles last longer than 7 years. Many but not all know this. A good financial analyst is one with a lot of experience. Unfortunately, most people who experienced the previous cycle have passed away.

All That Glitters Isn't Gold

A lot of negative sentiment about Gold should make it fly into Autumn and Winter. Also, many still think the Dollar has to come down for Gold to go up. It sometimes does, however in the past Gold and the Dollar have now and than gone up in tandem. Speaking about Head and Shoulder formations, it is amazing that such a formation is only visible on the Dollar chart for Gold. The Yen, Sterling, Swiss and euro charts look completely different and seem to sit happely in their secular uptrend channel.

Gold: The Commodity Bull Market Isn't Over

Excellent article with some good reasoning. The cherry on the cake is the negative sentiment that is felt when reading certain reactions. I loved the combination of the technical and fundamentals.

Who Is Really Printing Money?

Elliott Waves and gold: There are different ways in numbering the gold chart. Making a mistake can put one on the wrong side of the market for some time. Accoding to my numbering, we still are now having an ABC correction prior to leg 5 which should last all the way into the beginning of 2009. Additionally, an inflation adjusted price of $ 600 for Gold just doesn't make any sence as the Real Interest Rates are negative and the monetary inflation keeps on rising by almost 20 % annually.

Will the Georgia Conflict Affect Gold and Silver Prices?

Excellent article and question. I have no doubt the conflict would have affected the price of Gold and Oil if the war would have happened 3 or 4 months ago. Or at least it would have been explained that way by the media. Now that the overall sentiment for yellow and black gold is negative, there wasn't any impact at all. Ironically, it has to be noted that for some reason, no damage was done to the pipeline.

Long Term, Gold Is On Its Way Down

Technicals are very important. However, used without fundamentals, they are worthless. Ever since the Gold started its secular bull market trend, fundamentals kept changing in one and the same direction. Even with Gold down from $ 1,040 to $ 820, they haven't changed! Reactions and corrections come and go and though it makes one feel better if they can be followed using TA, this ain't always possible. Having said this, many TA make the error of looking at short term charts only. Gold, silver and other commodities look completely different on long term charts. They clearly show the cycle has still a long way to go (up). A long term chart for the Dollar index, for example, clearly shows the secular bear trend for the dollar is alive and well!