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Frank Aldridge

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  • BioPharma Catalyst And Investment Pick In Focus: Synergy Pharma [View article]
    The ramp up in staffing that would be needed to market/sell an approved drug would be huge for SGYP as they currently have no one for this. Therefore, the CEOs intentions are fairly well telegraphed through staffing and his own words confirm this.

    A good drug pipeline is the only thing used in negotiations for a sale. Assuming the next 2 phase II data releases are positive, then there should be multiple bidders for SGYP.
    Jan 2 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    I’m not trying to offend you with my posts, but you wrote an article that was a little condescending of retail investors and anyone invested in MSLP.

    “Superficial knowledge of a potential investment appears sufficient for many retail investors. After reading a glowing press release or two and a quick perusal of the website, they seem to lunge for their computers to place their buy orders. After all, sales are growing at an ultrafast clip and one of the world's most famous celebrities has signed on to promote the brand. Hello, jackpot!”

    It was a fairly harsh article to say the least and contained a number of inaccuracies and/or misleading statements in my opinion.

    The long bias is that this company is both a turnaround and a growth story. It is up 65% YTD in 2013 (well off the highs but 65% is pretty good). Nuf Said.
    Dec 19 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    I have seen some talking about the Arnold line being the other product that people could use to cycle off MP products. Not sure the extent to which that has or will happen, but it is an interesting thought and would be beneficial for MSLP to keep customers more loyal than they otherwise would be. The company also just reformulated Assault and this could be an indication that they understand the concept of cycling off a product. If they continue to do this in the future, then it is another way to keep customers loyal.
    Dec 19 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    I hate the idea of hijacking a message board to continue this, but I note that your article states that you have no position in MSLP and you continue to represent yourself that way. However, you seem to be quite emotional with regards to this stock.... Just to be clear, that is me directly questioning your motivation with regards to MSLP.

    For full disclosure, I am still long MSLP at just north of $8.
    Dec 19 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    It's definitely not a legitimate question. An SA contributor has to directly select whether they wrote an article themselves, were paid for the article, have an investment related to the article, etc. The disclosure at the bottom or sometimes at the top of an article is very clear. By you asking the question you are implying that the author may have lied in selecting those disclosures.

    Further, attacking me for hastily writing “misinformaiton” versus “misinformation” shows that you have little substance to debate with. I believe it is referred to as argumentum ad hominem!
    Dec 19 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    House, were you paid for your article? This one seems to address current business trends and attempts to place a valuation on the company based on DCF and Comps. I already responded to a number of the issues I had with misinformaiton you had in your article.

    If you have issues with this article, then please address those and stop throwing out the slander.
    Dec 18 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Fails To Pump Me Up [View article]
    Operating lease accounting is not usually aggressive, especially when it relates to real estate leases. Accounting 101 states that A=L+E, so if you make companies account for the liability what is the other side of the journal entry? An asset or a hit to equity? This makes no sense from an accounting standpoint and accusing a company of questionable accounting practices on that alone is very misleading. And obviously truthful financial statements are important, but what you are suggesting would do nothing to make financials more accurate. The reason for footnotes is to inform people of events that may occur that are not clear in the financials themselves.

    Perhaps you are confusing valuation where an operating lease can be treated like debt, but that has nothing to do with accounting and certainly does not call management into question.
    Dec 5 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Fails To Pump Me Up [View article]
    The undertones of short sentiment are littered throughout this article and sadly most of the statements you make are false. Just to run through a few:

    1. R&D in 2010 was $1.3M (look at page 20 of the 2011 10-k) and I’d expect it to be a lot higher again in 2013 with the new Assault formula. Comparing R&D at this company to a drug developer is laughable. They aren’t creating new drugs, merely changing formulas with already developed supplements. Do you really expect millions in R&D for this?
    2. Employment agreements were last amended January 4, 2013 and base pay ranges from $200k - $250k with any increases only coming at the approval of the Compensation Committee, which you also fail to point out as a recent company change. I would suggest you read the S-1 filed in August to learn the basics of company’s operations.
    3. “Off balance sheet operating leases” is referring to real estate leases I assume. What company ever brings the lease of office/warehouse space onto their books? This is not sham accounting, it is accounting 101 actually. Please learn that before you ask the company to book liabilities relating to real estate leases. This is also fully disclosed according to GAAP in their financials.
    4. Regarding CF from Operations, the company had CFO of about ($1M) in 2012 and could actually have CFO of ($2M) to $2M for 2013. Nowhere near the ~($11M) you are spouting. I’d expect the company to end the year with $10M to $14M in cash, versus $0 in 2012, which should put them in a good position going forward. The acquisition of BZNE manufacturing assets could alter these assumptions, but I have nothing to lead me to believe that as of now.
    5. My biggest issue is in your portrayal of management’s past issues, which are mostly corrected through the hiring of numerous outsiders and the separation from the old insiders. Are you really going to look at consulting contracts from 2009-2011 that have been terminated for guidance for the future without really discussing any remedies to your issues? Yes, Pyatt is still around but he forewent his 51% voting via Series B preferred stock, so even he is coming around to be more shareholder friendly. Throw in Dr. Frost’s involvement in the company and I’m not sure why you would bring up old issues at all.

    Overall, I’d say you lacked in the research department when updating old issues that you believe bring the company’s potential into question. Therefore, any investor would be foolish to take your false information as sound investment advice.

    Also, I am choosing to ignore your feelings about the benefits of supplements for athletes or even average joe’s. It is great that you opine on a company and its products by only visiting bodybuilding.com, but you should do some more research than that to really have an opinion on the product or subject matter.
    Dec 4 03:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing Should Irritate You About Synergy's Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    Quite the poet!

    Linzess is on track for $130M in sales in 2013 and I've seen estimates for $360M in sales 2014. I'd imagine sales will pick up much faster once they start DTC marketing next year. If people were overvaluing it previously, then that is their own fault. I think they have now overdone the selling in IRWD. IRWD is also another stock that has a huge short interest (~17% of float). Apparently some investors just don't like this drug class.
    Nov 8 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing Should Irritate You About Synergy's Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    I've seen projections that an nda for CIC could come in 1H 2015, so I'd have to assume data would be out well before then. Investor fatigue like yours is another reason I think the stock will move quickly. If IBS-C data is positive (SP-333 as well), then this stock will be sold quickly. I'd be surprised if it is still independent for an nda.
    Nov 6 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Down 15%, But It'll Be Back [View article]
    Last capital raise was at a price of $10.50 to Dr. Frost, so while share count did rise, it wasn't a giveaway. Using new capital to grow the business should be beneficial in the long run, but I'd agree that at some point MSLP needs to be more self funding. If most of the 1-time items are done with, then I think they have a good shot at meeting my target EBITDA estimates (i.e. self funding).

    Note that they canceled the 2 consulting contracts going forward, which were free share giveaways in recent months to make the beneficiaries whole up to 4% of the compnay or something like that.
    Aug 20 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - Dividend Investment Idea With 25% Downside Protection [View article]
    See my comments below on the risk of your naked put. I was kind enough to not mess with volatility, but I'd imagine it would not be in your favor if this market tanks.
    Aug 15 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - Dividend Investment Idea With 25% Downside Protection [View article]
    See below for my calcs on downside with naked puts. Vol is not your friend in that scenario.
    Aug 15 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - Dividend Investment Idea With 25% Downside Protection [View article]
    And you can also talk about taking the cash now by selling a put, but what are you really going to do with the 10 bps from a mm account? The whole point was to find something outside of fixed income, plus eventually those mm accounts might just break the $1 anyway.
    Aug 15 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - Dividend Investment Idea With 25% Downside Protection [View article]
    Just to run the numbers for you on my assumptions from a day ago: S=12, K=13, V=31%, R=2.7%, t=512, d=13% and the value of the put is $3.20. If at the end of the year the stock crashes to $8 the assumptions would be (and ajust as you see fit): S=8, K=13, V=31%, R=2.7%, t=360, d=15% (assuming dividend drops to $.3 and the stock keeps adjusting downward to $8) and the value of the put is $5.78. If you unwind the trade at this point you lose $2.58.

    If instead you put on my trade, then you would lose the $400 on the stock and that would be offset by $180 in dividends ($.3 x 2 quarters x 300 shares). The net loss is $2.20.

    Play around with BSM all you want, but in this environment I know what my potential loss is, I can easily control that loss, and the extra $9.99 fee to buy the stock is not changing the outcome all that much. If the world ends let me know what volatility shoots up to and what you put now costs to cover.

    Otherwise, I will accept a smaller return for less risk in the mean time.
    Aug 15 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
37 Comments
8 Likes