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Frank Aldridge

 
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  • Trouble For Synergy Pharmaceuticals Shorts With Pending SP-333 Trial Results [View article]
    I think there is plenty of room for this market to grow. IRWD has had good success in their DTC campaign, so the potential for a better drug to come in and take more of the Amitiza / Linzess/ OTC market share seems reasonable. Amitiza doesn't have great reviews itself and the GC-C class of drugs should continue to gain momentum in the market.

    Even if it ends up being a me-too, current valuation is well below 1X peak sales and that is still being valued without SP-333. There has been a lot of interest in this sector and a acquisition at that low of a valuation seems way off base.
    Aug 18 12:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trouble For Synergy Pharmaceuticals Shorts With Pending SP-333 Trial Results [View article]
    If you assume peak sales of $500mn for both Plecanatide (low analyst estimates for Plecanatide are +$500mn) and SP-333 trial fails, then I would think a low multiple would be 2X peak sales, which gives you a price around $10 / share.

    Both sales estimates and the multiple are low in my opinion for this sector, so this is some serious discount that a buyer would be getting.
    Aug 18 12:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trouble For Synergy Pharmaceuticals Shorts With Pending SP-333 Trial Results [View article]
    1. There are some big name institutions that hold significant positions in SGYP, so I'm not sure you can discount that ownership and say it's just dumb money owning this. The fact that only ~60% of the outstanding shares are available to trade and institutions hold 50% of those is how you should view this. Liquidity is constantly an issue with this stock.

    2. Overlay the IBB from 12/1/2013 through March/April 2014 and you will see IBB is up ~20% and SGYP in that period ran up ~50%. Yes, part of the rise in the stock could be attributed to broad market, but I think the difference between 20% and 50% is a bit to wide to ascribe this to broad market.

    Now compare IBB to SGYP from March/April 2014 to today and the two don't trade in tandem at all (SGYP down -40% and IBB flat), yet SGYP once again posted positive Phase 2 trial results during that time.

    Something else seems to be at play in SGYP share price during both periods.

    3. Just providing historical context for what has happened in prior Phase 2 trial results for this stock. I would argue SP-333 has high probability of success based on earlier trial and the results from Plecanatide (SP-333 is the second generation update of Plecanatide), so the idea that traders once again step in and buy shares into Phase 2 results doesn't seem far fetched to me. Of course this is not a guarantee, but if you are looking for indications as to how something might trade, then what better place to start than SGYP's own history.
    _____
    And I certainly hope any new investor in this name does their own due diligence. I am just offering up a few of my opinions as to what has happened with SGYP and what could happen in the near future. How you or anybody trades this, if at all, is on them.
    Aug 18 11:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Pharmaceuticals: An Interesting Investment Ahead Of Multiple Catalysts [View article]
    "I would short SGYP instead. Two years from any chance of approval." - carsons7

    Just saying.
    Jun 25 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Pharmaceuticals: An Interesting Investment Ahead Of Multiple Catalysts [View article]
    Carsons7, close your short position already. The stock shows time and time again that it doesn't want to stay below $4, yet you and your short friends keep upping the stakes to the tune of 14.5M shares now to keep it there.

    There is clearly room for multiple drugs in the market and p2 in IBS-C and CIC have already proven plecanitide.
    Jun 23 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BioPharma Catalyst And Investment Pick In Focus: Synergy Pharma [View article]
    The ramp up in staffing that would be needed to market/sell an approved drug would be huge for SGYP as they currently have no one for this. Therefore, the CEOs intentions are fairly well telegraphed through staffing and his own words confirm this.

    A good drug pipeline is the only thing used in negotiations for a sale. Assuming the next 2 phase II data releases are positive, then there should be multiple bidders for SGYP.
    Jan 2 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    I’m not trying to offend you with my posts, but you wrote an article that was a little condescending of retail investors and anyone invested in MSLP.

    “Superficial knowledge of a potential investment appears sufficient for many retail investors. After reading a glowing press release or two and a quick perusal of the website, they seem to lunge for their computers to place their buy orders. After all, sales are growing at an ultrafast clip and one of the world's most famous celebrities has signed on to promote the brand. Hello, jackpot!”

    It was a fairly harsh article to say the least and contained a number of inaccuracies and/or misleading statements in my opinion.

    The long bias is that this company is both a turnaround and a growth story. It is up 65% YTD in 2013 (well off the highs but 65% is pretty good). Nuf Said.
    Dec 19 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    I have seen some talking about the Arnold line being the other product that people could use to cycle off MP products. Not sure the extent to which that has or will happen, but it is an interesting thought and would be beneficial for MSLP to keep customers more loyal than they otherwise would be. The company also just reformulated Assault and this could be an indication that they understand the concept of cycling off a product. If they continue to do this in the future, then it is another way to keep customers loyal.
    Dec 19 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    I hate the idea of hijacking a message board to continue this, but I note that your article states that you have no position in MSLP and you continue to represent yourself that way. However, you seem to be quite emotional with regards to this stock.... Just to be clear, that is me directly questioning your motivation with regards to MSLP.

    For full disclosure, I am still long MSLP at just north of $8.
    Dec 19 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    It's definitely not a legitimate question. An SA contributor has to directly select whether they wrote an article themselves, were paid for the article, have an investment related to the article, etc. The disclosure at the bottom or sometimes at the top of an article is very clear. By you asking the question you are implying that the author may have lied in selecting those disclosures.

    Further, attacking me for hastily writing “misinformaiton” versus “misinformation” shows that you have little substance to debate with. I believe it is referred to as argumentum ad hominem!
    Dec 19 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm: Shares Are Deeply Undervalued At Current Levels [View article]
    House, were you paid for your article? This one seems to address current business trends and attempts to place a valuation on the company based on DCF and Comps. I already responded to a number of the issues I had with misinformaiton you had in your article.

    If you have issues with this article, then please address those and stop throwing out the slander.
    Dec 18 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Fails To Pump Me Up [View article]
    Operating lease accounting is not usually aggressive, especially when it relates to real estate leases. Accounting 101 states that A=L+E, so if you make companies account for the liability what is the other side of the journal entry? An asset or a hit to equity? This makes no sense from an accounting standpoint and accusing a company of questionable accounting practices on that alone is very misleading. And obviously truthful financial statements are important, but what you are suggesting would do nothing to make financials more accurate. The reason for footnotes is to inform people of events that may occur that are not clear in the financials themselves.

    Perhaps you are confusing valuation where an operating lease can be treated like debt, but that has nothing to do with accounting and certainly does not call management into question.
    Dec 5 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Fails To Pump Me Up [View article]
    The undertones of short sentiment are littered throughout this article and sadly most of the statements you make are false. Just to run through a few:

    1. R&D in 2010 was $1.3M (look at page 20 of the 2011 10-k) and I’d expect it to be a lot higher again in 2013 with the new Assault formula. Comparing R&D at this company to a drug developer is laughable. They aren’t creating new drugs, merely changing formulas with already developed supplements. Do you really expect millions in R&D for this?
    2. Employment agreements were last amended January 4, 2013 and base pay ranges from $200k - $250k with any increases only coming at the approval of the Compensation Committee, which you also fail to point out as a recent company change. I would suggest you read the S-1 filed in August to learn the basics of company’s operations.
    3. “Off balance sheet operating leases” is referring to real estate leases I assume. What company ever brings the lease of office/warehouse space onto their books? This is not sham accounting, it is accounting 101 actually. Please learn that before you ask the company to book liabilities relating to real estate leases. This is also fully disclosed according to GAAP in their financials.
    4. Regarding CF from Operations, the company had CFO of about ($1M) in 2012 and could actually have CFO of ($2M) to $2M for 2013. Nowhere near the ~($11M) you are spouting. I’d expect the company to end the year with $10M to $14M in cash, versus $0 in 2012, which should put them in a good position going forward. The acquisition of BZNE manufacturing assets could alter these assumptions, but I have nothing to lead me to believe that as of now.
    5. My biggest issue is in your portrayal of management’s past issues, which are mostly corrected through the hiring of numerous outsiders and the separation from the old insiders. Are you really going to look at consulting contracts from 2009-2011 that have been terminated for guidance for the future without really discussing any remedies to your issues? Yes, Pyatt is still around but he forewent his 51% voting via Series B preferred stock, so even he is coming around to be more shareholder friendly. Throw in Dr. Frost’s involvement in the company and I’m not sure why you would bring up old issues at all.

    Overall, I’d say you lacked in the research department when updating old issues that you believe bring the company’s potential into question. Therefore, any investor would be foolish to take your false information as sound investment advice.

    Also, I am choosing to ignore your feelings about the benefits of supplements for athletes or even average joe’s. It is great that you opine on a company and its products by only visiting bodybuilding.com, but you should do some more research than that to really have an opinion on the product or subject matter.
    Dec 4 03:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing Should Irritate You About Synergy's Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    Quite the poet!

    Linzess is on track for $130M in sales in 2013 and I've seen estimates for $360M in sales 2014. I'd imagine sales will pick up much faster once they start DTC marketing next year. If people were overvaluing it previously, then that is their own fault. I think they have now overdone the selling in IRWD. IRWD is also another stock that has a huge short interest (~17% of float). Apparently some investors just don't like this drug class.
    Nov 8 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing Should Irritate You About Synergy's Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    I've seen projections that an nda for CIC could come in 1H 2015, so I'd have to assume data would be out well before then. Investor fatigue like yours is another reason I think the stock will move quickly. If IBS-C data is positive (SP-333 as well), then this stock will be sold quickly. I'd be surprised if it is still independent for an nda.
    Nov 6 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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