Seeking Alpha

Fred Piard

 
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  • Gold And Silver: 11% Discount In Bullion Funds, But Don't Buy In The Next 8 Days
    Tue, Dec. 23 GLD 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Why next week is a dangerous time for gold bulls.
    • Where gold price will go if this support is broken.
    • Which bullion funds offer a discount between 10% and 12%.
  • Airlines: Summary Of IATA Expectations For 2015
    Wed, Dec. 10 SKYW, RYAAY, LUV 1 Comment
  • Internet Industry: Valuation, Momentum And Seasonality
    Tue, Dec. 2 AMZN, EBAY, EXPE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Large internet companies look fairly valued as a group.
    • FDN is ranked among the strongest specialty ETFs for momentum.
    • The short interest and seasonality are supportive.
  • Semiconductors: When Fair Value Meets Momentum And Seasonality
    Sun, Nov. 30 SMH, AMAT, BRCM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Large semiconductor companies look fairly valued as a group.
    • SMH is ranked among the strongest specialty ETFs for momentum.
    • It is one of the industries offering the best odds at this time of the year.
  • How Much Is The Biotech Industry Stretched?
    Fri, Nov. 28 AMGN, BIIB, CELG 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Mrs Yellen said in July that small cap biotech firms were overvalued.
    • Large caps also are, not only relative to the broad market, but also to their own history.
    • There may be opportunities in the industry, but now is a risky time.
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced
    Thu, Nov. 20 IWM 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Some analysts think that small caps underperforming is a bad omen.
    • But this metrics shows that they have been flying too high.
    • What you can expect if the historical balance is restored.
  • How To Buy Gold 10% Cheaper
    Wed, Nov. 19 CEF, GLD, GTU 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold price went up last 2 weeks.
    • Commercial hedgers' net short position didn't change.
    • Some Canadian funds provide a discount up to 10%.
  • A Valuation Snapshot By Sectors
    Wed, Nov. 5 XLB, XLE, XLF Comment!

    Summary

    • Methodology and valuation indicator.
    • Synoptic for S&P 500 sectors.
    • Some specific situations.
  • Are XLF And Financials Overpriced?
    Sat, Nov. 1 XLF 7 Comments

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 financial companies' valuation relative to their profit.
    • Quick look at their debt.
    • The conclusion is not the same for all financial industries.
  • Are XLE And Energy Stocks Overpriced?
    Fri, Oct. 31 XLE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 Energy companies valuation relative to their profit.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • Conclusion about the current price of XLE and its components.
  • Are XLB And Materials Overpriced?
    Thu, Oct. 30 XLB Comment!

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 Materials companies' valuation relative to their profit.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • Conclusion about the current price of XLB and its components.
  • Are XLY And Consumer Discretionary Overpriced?
    Thu, Oct. 30 XLY Comment!

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies valuation relative to their profit.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • Conclusion about the current price of XLY and its components.
  • Are XLP And Consumer Staples Overpriced?
    Tue, Oct. 28 XLP 5 Comments

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies' valuation relative to their profit.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • Conclusion about the current price of XLP and its components.
  • Are XLV And The Health Care Sector Overpriced?
    Mon, Oct. 27 XLV 4 Comments

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 health care companies' valuations relative to their profits.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • The conclusion is split in biotech and non-biotech companies.
  • Are XLK And Its Holdings Overpriced?
    Sun, Oct. 26 XLK 3 Comments

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 Tech and Telecom companies' valuation relative to their profit.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • Conclusion about the current price of XLK and its components.
  • How To Buy Gold And Silver 8% Cheaper (Canadian Funds Update)
    Sat, Oct. 25 GLD, PALL, PPLT 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold price went up in October.
    • So did Commercial Hedgers' net short position, once again.
    • The article lists the discounts in 6 Canadian funds.
  • Are Utilities And XLU Overpriced?
    Fri, Oct. 24 XLU 12 Comments

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 utilities companies valuation relative to their net profit.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • Conclusion about the current price of XLU and its components.
  • Are Industrials And XLI Overpriced?
    Thu, Oct. 23 XLI 3 Comments

    Summary

    • History of S&P 500 industrial companies valuation relative to their profit.
    • Quick look at their financial balance.
    • Conclusion about the current price of XLI and its components.
  • Are S&P 500 Companies Overpriced? No, They're More Efficient
    Mon, Oct. 20 CA, CRM, IBM 4 Comments

    Summary

    • A 15-year history of companies' valuation relative to their sales and margins.
    • A quick look at their financial health and employment.
    • An explanation as to why their profit margins have doubled in 15 years.
  • How To Buy Gold And Silver 7% Cheaper Than GLD And SLV
    Wed, Sep. 24 CEF, GTU, PALL 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver fell through its mid-term support, gold is still holding it.
    • Short positions by commercial hedgers have been heavily covered in all precious metals, except one.
    • The article lists the discounts on precious metals in 6 Canadian funds.
  • Profitable Thoughts On Market Breadth And Market Timing
    Fri, Sep. 12 SPY 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The definition of a market breadth indicator.
    • It may be combined with other indicators for better accuracy.
    • Various combinations are explored in a 15-year backtest.
  • What You Need To Know About Backtesting A Strategy
    Fri, Sep. 5 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The author lists the pitfalls to avoid in a backtest.
    • Then he lists the most useful factors to interpret it.
    • Finally he gives a scientific view of what is "luck" in investing.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Silver - September Update
    Tue, Sep. 2 CEF, GLD, GTU 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver price is in bearish territory, Gold is indecisive.
    • The short-term vision is unclear, but seasonality becomes supportive.
    • The article lists the discounts on precious metals in 6 Canadian funds.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Silver - Bonus: A Black Swan Insurance
    Wed, Jul. 23 CEF, PALL, SLV 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold and Silver prices are in bullish territory, but the COT chart shows another picture.
    • Another metal may be a better insurance against black swans.
    • The article lists the discounts on precious metals in 6 Canadian funds.
  • Pros And Cons Of Tactical Allocation Explained With A Real Trade
    Thu, Jul. 10 IBB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The author explains why tactical asset allocation is robust by design.
    • He dissects a trade typical of the strategy, in terms of profit... and frustration.
    • This trade sheds a light on the drawbacks of tactical allocation: over- and under-reaction.
  • Building A Core ETF Portfolio: Method, Story And Real Money
    Wed, Jul. 2 IEV, MDY, EWD 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The author describes the evolution, structure and results of his core tactical allocation strategy.
    • The rules are not detailed, but the model structure may help investors build their own portfolio.
    • Real returns on 30 months are compared with two benchmarks.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (June Update)
    Thu, Jun. 19 GLD 12 Comments

    Summary

    • GLD and SLV broke out above the 200-day sma.
    • This article makes no prediction -- it shows where investors can buy more metal for their money.
    • The discounts in Canadian funds are sharply down.
  • The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies
    Tue, May. 27 DIA, IEF 25 Comments

    Summary

    • The author shows a simple strategy using 2 of the most liquid ETFs. It needs a minute every month.
    • It is supported by research and recent history: a 10% annualized return with a bond-like risk.
    • The return can be widely improved by leveraging or extending the concept to more sophisticated models.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update)
    Thu, May. 15 GLD 21 Comments

    Summary

    • A directional move in GLD is very likely in a near future, but the direction is difficult to guess.
    • The author makes no prediction, he shows where investors can have more metal for their money.
    • It may be an opportunity for investors wanting to buy, but arbitraging these discounts is a bad idea.
  • The AlphaDEX Strategy ETFs (Part 3)
    Tue, Apr. 22 IWB, FXN, XLE Comment!

    Summary

    • The AlphaDEX ETFs are strategy ETFs combining price momentum and valuation in each sector.
    • A previous article shows that they outperform sector benchmarks in defensive sectors.
    • Their strategy has also provided an alpha in Financials and Materials since inception date, but results are deceptive in other cyclical sectors.
  • The AlphaDEX ETFs: Defensive Sectors (Part 2)
    Mon, Apr. 21 FXG, FXH, FXU Comment!

    Summary

    • The AlphaDEX ETFs are sector ETFs based on a strategy combining momentum and valuation.
    • A previous article concluded that it was not very efficient in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
    • This one shows that it works better in Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities.
  • Strategy-Based Sector ETFs: How Do They Work?
    Tue, Apr. 15 FXD 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Used alone for individual stocks, price momentum is not enough to build robust strategies.
    • The AlphaDEX ETF series combines momentum and fundamental factors to build a quarterly rebalanced portfolio in each sector.
    • This article ends with a performance evaluation of the First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX Fund.