Seeking Alpha

Fred Piard

 
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  • Profitable Thoughts On Market Breadth And Market Timing
    Fri, Sep. 12 SPY 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The definition of a market breadth indicator.
    • It may be combined with other indicators for better accuracy.
    • Various combinations are explored in a 15-year backtest.
  • What You Need To Know About Backtesting A Strategy
    Fri, Sep. 5 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The author lists the pitfalls to avoid in a backtest.
    • Then he lists the most useful factors to interpret it.
    • Finally he gives a scientific view of what is "luck" in investing.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Silver - September Update
    Tue, Sep. 2 CEF, GLD, GTU 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver price is in bearish territory, Gold is indecisive.
    • The short-term vision is unclear, but seasonality becomes supportive.
    • The article lists the discounts on precious metals in 6 Canadian funds.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Silver - Bonus: A Black Swan Insurance
    Wed, Jul. 23 CEF, PALL, SLV 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold and Silver prices are in bullish territory, but the COT chart shows another picture.
    • Another metal may be a better insurance against black swans.
    • The article lists the discounts on precious metals in 6 Canadian funds.
  • Pros And Cons Of Tactical Allocation Explained With A Real Trade
    Thu, Jul. 10 IBB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The author explains why tactical asset allocation is robust by design.
    • He dissects a trade typical of the strategy, in terms of profit... and frustration.
    • This trade sheds a light on the drawbacks of tactical allocation: over- and under-reaction.
  • Building A Core ETF Portfolio: Method, Story And Real Money
    Wed, Jul. 2 IEV, MDY, EWD 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The author describes the evolution, structure and results of his core tactical allocation strategy.
    • The rules are not detailed, but the model structure may help investors build their own portfolio.
    • Real returns on 30 months are compared with two benchmarks.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (June Update)
    Thu, Jun. 19 GLD 12 Comments

    Summary

    • GLD and SLV broke out above the 200-day sma.
    • This article makes no prediction -- it shows where investors can buy more metal for their money.
    • The discounts in Canadian funds are sharply down.
  • The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies
    Tue, May. 27 DIA, IEF 25 Comments

    Summary

    • The author shows a simple strategy using 2 of the most liquid ETFs. It needs a minute every month.
    • It is supported by research and recent history: a 10% annualized return with a bond-like risk.
    • The return can be widely improved by leveraging or extending the concept to more sophisticated models.
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update)
    Thu, May. 15 GLD 21 Comments

    Summary

    • A directional move in GLD is very likely in a near future, but the direction is difficult to guess.
    • The author makes no prediction, he shows where investors can have more metal for their money.
    • It may be an opportunity for investors wanting to buy, but arbitraging these discounts is a bad idea.
  • The AlphaDEX Strategy ETFs (Part 3)
    Tue, Apr. 22 IWB, FXN, XLE Comment!

    Summary

    • The AlphaDEX ETFs are strategy ETFs combining price momentum and valuation in each sector.
    • A previous article shows that they outperform sector benchmarks in defensive sectors.
    • Their strategy has also provided an alpha in Financials and Materials since inception date, but results are deceptive in other cyclical sectors.
  • The AlphaDEX ETFs: Defensive Sectors (Part 2)
    Mon, Apr. 21 FXG, FXH, FXU Comment!

    Summary

    • The AlphaDEX ETFs are sector ETFs based on a strategy combining momentum and valuation.
    • A previous article concluded that it was not very efficient in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
    • This one shows that it works better in Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities.
  • Strategy-Based Sector ETFs: How Do They Work?
    Tue, Apr. 15 FXD 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Used alone for individual stocks, price momentum is not enough to build robust strategies.
    • The AlphaDEX ETF series combines momentum and fundamental factors to build a quarterly rebalanced portfolio in each sector.
    • This article ends with a performance evaluation of the First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX Fund.
  • Momentum ETFs: Really A Good Idea?
    Mon, Apr. 14 PDP, DWAS, EEH 20 Comments

    Summary

    • This article lists and evaluates strategy ETFs based on momentum.
    • Three of them have more than $1 million in daily liquidity and a year in historical data.
    • Compared with the benchmark since inception, none have a convincing risk-adjusted performance.
  • How To Bet On IPOs And Spin-Offs With ETFs, And Choose The Best.
    Mon, Apr. 7 CSD, FPX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • FPX and CSD are ETFs based on IPO and spin-off strategies.
    • They are similar in inception dates, AUM and liquidity, making a comparison easy.
    • Both ETFs outperform the benchmark, but timing techniques are recommended because of a higher volatility.
  • Precious Metal Canadian Discounts (March Update)
    Tue, Mar. 25 GDX, GDXJ, GLD Comment!

    Summary

    • Gold and silver prices are consolidating for a couple of weeks.
    • Central Fund of Canada and Central Gold Trust offer a better discount than last month.
    • Trying to arbitrage this discount might not be a good idea.
  • Hedge Fund ETFs: Alternative Alpha Vs. Guru Index
    Mon, Mar. 24 GURU, ALFA 16 Comments

    Summary

    • ALFA and GURU are presented as cheap alternatives to hedge funds.
    • ALFA has a better risk-adjusted performance since inception date.
    • But in fact SPY was better in risk-adjusted performance than both ALFA and GURU.
  • Canadian Discounts On Precious Metals (February Update)
    Sun, Feb. 23 CEF, GDX, GDXJ Comment!
  • Which VIX Spike Could Kill XIV? Here Are The Numbers.
    Thu, Feb. 20 XIV 110 Comments
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return.
    Thu, Feb. 13 XIV 71 Comments
  • Canadian Discounts On Precious Metals (January Update)
    Fri, Jan. 24 CEF, GLD, GTU 3 Comments
  • Market Timing: 3 Simple Indicators That Work... Together
    Thu, Jan. 23 DIA, IWM, MDY 14 Comments
  • Market Timing: 3 Indicators That Work
    Mon, Jan. 20 DIA, DOG, IWM 16 Comments
  • 2 Ways To Build An All-Weather Portfolio: Timed Hedging And Sector Selection.
    Tue, Jan. 14 MRK, PFE, PM 12 Comments
  • How To Protect A Portfolio In Technology
    Mon, Jan. 13 CSCO, EMC, GLW 5 Comments
  • How To Protect A Portfolio In Utilities
    Fri, Jan. 10 D, IDU, NEE 2 Comments
  • How To Protect A Portfolio Of Financial Companies
    Mon, Jan. 6 COF, GS, IYF 5 Comments
  • How To Protect A Portfolio In Consumer Discretionary
    Dec. 23, 2013 BBBY, DG, DISCA Comment!
  • Canadian Discounts On Precious Metals (Christmas Update)
    Dec. 21, 2013 CEF, GDXJ, GLD 17 Comments
  • How To Protect A Portfolio In Materials
    Dec. 17, 2013 DOW, IP, IYM 2 Comments
  • How To Protect A Portfolio In Energy
    Dec. 16, 2013 APA, HES, IYE 7 Comments
  • How To Protect A Healthcare Portfolio
    Dec. 9, 2013 IYH, SPXU, AET Comment!
  • Gold And Silver Discounts In Canadian Funds
    Dec. 9, 2013 CEF, GLD, GTU Comment!