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Fred Piard

 
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  • How Facebook Lost Generation Y [View article]
    I would like to read an article explaining that FB is a major local media and marketing tool in some developing countries, and that the key of its growth is the emerging global middle class. Please, I have no time to write it myself...
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Money Management For My 3 VIX Models [View instapost]
    only a 5.5 year backtest of symmetric short models on VXX and VXZ, starting April 2009
    Dec 11, 2014. 05:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Semiconductors: When Fair Value Meets Momentum And Seasonality [View article]
    UPDATE: I just did the calculation of the average short interest to float: 7.7% in the group of 21 companies, vs 4.8% for the whole Russell 1000 (data 11/28/2014 after market closing).
    Dec 1, 2014. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is The Biotech Industry Stretched? [View article]
    Whitney, I don't say that PEG is not important. I'm primarily interested in the fundamental factors that have the better odds to lift the price in a near future based on statistics. PE (TTM and projected) and PFCF make a difference more often than PEG in my studies.
    Nov 29, 2014. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is The Biotech Industry Stretched? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I haven't looked at the PEG as it is not in my top preferred indicators, but I did the calculation with the price to cash flow and it tells the same story.
    Nov 29, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is The Biotech Industry Stretched? [View article]
    The problem is that the market does no due diligence. There is no reason for biotech companies as a group to be overvalued so much relative to *themselves*. Everything is correlated in a sector, especially because of funds, ETFs and specialty index futures. If you don't understand that, you will. Don't worry, it will be an opportunity to buy the best companies at a discount. With the condition to have cash at the right time. Look at what is happening in oil stocks now. Some of them should not sink so much, but they do.
    Nov 28, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is The Biotech Industry Stretched? [View article]
    You're right, GILD may be a league on its own, and it is the only biotech appearing in our Global Household Index (based on fundamental ratios, look at my website if interested). You will thank the next industry correction to buy it at a lower price.
    Nov 28, 2014. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is The Biotech Industry Stretched? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    A better quote:
    “You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham

    I have no doubt that there are opportunities in the industry and that it is has good prospects on the long term. My take is that it is a risky time and that there are better games in town now from a systemic point of view. But if it is your specialty and you are good and happy with that, it's perfect. Personally I think polarization and over-specialization is dangerous in investing. By the way, I have neither fear nor belief about the market. IBB has brought significant gains in my tactical portfolio along a few trades last 2 years.
    Nov 28, 2014. 10:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    Yes, I have read somewhere "there is no PE in biotech small caps". It reminds me of similar claims from the pet-dot-com era. Subject of my next article.
    Nov 26, 2014. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Uranium Prices Grow, The Global X Uranium ETF Will Follow [View article]
    Supportive factors on the long-term: Japanese plants to be restarted (total 10'000 to 20'000 MW), plants under construction and in project in China (30'000 to 70'000 MW until 2018), South Korea (11'000 MW until 2021), Brazil (11'000 MW until 2020+) , Russia (9'000 MW until 2018), India (4'000 MW until 2016). Risks: accident, politics, market crash. Disclosure: long URA@ avg 14.5
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Money Management For My 3 VIX Models [View instapost]
    Thanks for your comment. You are right, no guarantee for the future (even if the backtest was 10 years). The drawdown stays reasonable and as long as the risk and trend look OK, I continue to play this with a small portion of my account.
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Where It Is Darkest: When Company, Country, Currency And Commodity Risk Collide! [View article]
    Outstanding article by an outstanding contributor and professor. But I don't play this. For someone with no day job (thanks god) whose financial future directly depends on investing, this is really not the best kind of game in town =:s
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    It may be better to use the inverse ratio: 1/PE. It cannot go to infinite. I have no time to allocate to this now, if you want to do more yourself, here is an extended free trial for the tool and data I have used: http://bit.ly/116JOdw
    Nov 22, 2014. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    the median is better than the average (equal-weight or capital-weight) because it is less sensitive to outliers. The PE average is extreme and meaningless at some points in time because of close to infinite values for some companies. If the median is not accurate to evaluate the index in absolute, it makes sense to compare it to its own historical average, and to check the evolution of its ratio for 2 indexes. That's what I do here.
    Nov 21, 2014. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    Hi Larry. For VOT, the chart looks great now. If you can give me a link to the precise definition of the underlying index, and if it can be translated easily in my tool, I may have a look at its valuation in a next article.
    Nov 20, 2014. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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632 Comments
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