Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Fred Piard  

View Fred Piard's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is The Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? (Part 2) [View article]
    brainleft, I wish you're right, but it's a bit more complicated imho.
    Sep 1, 2015. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ALFA: A Market-Beating ETF About To Go Market-Neutral [View article]
    On uncertainty, I took a 50% hedge for ALFA if it gaps down. My core stock portfolio is already market-neutral since last week.
    Sep 1, 2015. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? (Part 2) [View article]
    Stanford Chemist, Thanks for your comment. You may be right (EM individual stocks are not in my scope).
    Sep 1, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ALFA: A Market-Beating ETF About To Go Market-Neutral [View article]
    SC, Thanks for the update. I asked on their website but didn't get the answer yet. Suddenly tomorrow seems far away. I may hedge myself on close for the next 24h depending on how look the last candles.
    Sep 1, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ALFA: A Market-Beating ETF About To Go Market-Neutral [View article]
    Very good article (I planned one on the subject, but it would not have been so comprehensive). Thanks for the quote and the "elegantly" ;)
    An information missing in both our articles is that ALFA tracks stock holdings. Hedge funds have often options associated to their holdings, so ALFA doesn't replicate the whole hedge fund strategies. But it looks good enough based on the index backtest and on the out-of-sample performance. Looking at today's price, the hedge is probably not yet activated?
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? (Part 2) [View article]
    IBB is pricey, but there are value stocks inside.
    Sep 1, 2015. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? (Part 2) [View article]
    bently, thanks for your comment. If you mean that there are value traps, you're right. If you mean that it is a behavioral bias, you're also right. The fact is: value stocks (as defined in the article) outperform the market on any period above 2 years since 1999. You can find academic publications with quantitative evidence that value investing outperforms the market since stock data exist.
    Sep 1, 2015. 09:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Yes; Bear Probably Not Soon, But Possible - Key Indicators Discussed [View article]
    Richard,
    My humble opinion is that yield curve is probably a good predictor, but a bad timer. The lag time between an inversion and really bad things has been quite variable. It may be very useful for economists and politicians, not sure for investors. Probability model here: http://tinyurl.com/cavmbe
    Aug 31, 2015. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Yes; Bear Probably Not Soon, But Possible - Key Indicators Discussed [View article]
    Excellent article, thanks. I like a lot the systemic approach. A note of caution: I wouldn't rely too much on the yield curve. A negative 10y-3m spread has anticipated recessions (which are not necessarily synchronized with market crashes) between 6 and 18 months in advance 7 times out of 8 since 1950. This is a small data sample. After calculating the odds with a 95% interval confidence, the statistically correct assertion is that the yield curve has a 95% chance to be an accurate indicator for predicting a recession 53% of the times or more. It doesn't take into account that there was also 1 false signal on the period. Moreover, the curve inversion has often disappeared before the real recessions started. Finally a lot of uncertainty for a so good-looking indicator....
    Aug 31, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    26891393, Thanks for your comment, much appreciated. I think that jzabiabol's answer was for StorerKeeper's comment, not about the article itself.
    Aug 30, 2015. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    jzabiabol,
    Thanks a lot for your insights. I agree with most of your points. The only real difference is that as an individual investor I wouldn't take the risk to short anything but an index (I have followed the corner engineered by Porsche on Volkswagen AG in 2008 - no skin in the game, but I was impressed to see a large cap multiplied by 5 in 2 days). I like a lot the idea of a spring. I have another one in sport: for a lightweight runner it is easier to go fast uphill, and more difficult to make a difference on the flat. I also believe value will outperform due to behavioral biases and that it should work better mixed with a touch of quality. At least, that's the idea behind my models.
    Aug 29, 2015. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    MWinMD, thanks for your comment!
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley's 27 stocks to buy on the dip [View news story]
    This is promotion. The question is why: do they want to hold or unload?
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    Interesting news:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    This is promotion, the good question is if they want to hold or unload these stocks.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    Thanks for the idea. I may write a follow-up.
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
835 Comments
491 Likes