Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Fred Piard  

View Fred Piard's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • RHS - A Defensive ETF Rises [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Comparing ETFs in the same sector, it seems that FXG did much better last 3 years, but RHS was less volatile in 2007-2008.
    Jul 31, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SCHO: Who Says Cash Is King? SCHO Is My Replacement For Cash [View article]
    Good advice. Any low vol ticker is better than unallocated cash in case something bad happens to the broker. Ask to MF Global customers who had their cash lost in the limbos for 2 years. And it could have been worse.
    Jul 31, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MTS4: Systemic Market-Timing For All Investors [View article]
    Thanks a lot for your comment.
    "regarding risk, expertise and experience don't matter". Of course they matter.
    => No they don't. Not only from extensive statistics on avalanche casualties in France (my home country), but also from my personal experience. Mountains took some of my friends, all were experts, none reckless, one was professional mountain guide, one in the process to become one, one was triple world champion of ski-mountaineering, and the other ones were very trusted and very missed climbing partners.
    I'm a rock climber for more than 30 years and casual non-for-profit instructor. I teach newbies to always check their partner's harness and rope, including mine.
    The point here is to have an objective information based on indicators, and never be over-exposed, not to trust my experience.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Q2 Revenue Crosses $8 Billion, Shares Remain Undervalued [View article]
    GILD is in the top 4 of my best quant model in the S&P 500 universe (fundamental factors only, no technicals). Long based only on numbers, not on opinions.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MTS4: Systemic Market-Timing For All Investors [View article]
    Hardog,
    Thanks for your encouraging comments!
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MTS4: Systemic Market-Timing For All Investors [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. Not sure if it's brilliant, at least it's a try to keep things as simple as possible, but not too simple (borrowing a quote attributed to Albert Einstein).
    Jul 28, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    All comments and their links add more value and investing ideas for the community than the article itself. Thanks to all of you for your participation.
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    OK Jon, I will stop writing on it for a while ;)
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    @tmdoherty
    "To me, that's like paying somebody to put gas in my car."
    You're right on this point. I also pay somebody to clean my house and mow the lawn. I repeat that I selected ALFA as a "buy-and-hold" for a passive portion of my portfolio that takes care of itself in case I become unable to trade for a while (accident, disease,...)
    Jul 20, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    Thanks for sharing this info BSG. Visually confirmed (roughly) by the chart of the underlying index on Solactive website.
    Jul 20, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    Toma,
    Absolutely, see my answer above.
    Jul 19, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    I disagree with your disagreement. Since launch (05/31/2012 - 07/15/2015), ALFA has exactly the same Sharpe ratio than SPY 1.92 (so the same risk-adjusted return), a slightly better Sortino ratio (2.73 vs 2.63), and a CAGR of 23.66% vs. 18.74% for SPY (including dividends).
    This is encouraging, but it would be stupid to rely on a 3-year performance. The interesting point is that ALFA is quite diversified and strongly correlated to SPY. I have in my files an article by Mebane Faber showing a backtest of the benchmark from 1900 to 2008 applying a similar market-timing based on a 10-month sma (very close to the 200-day). The drawdown was 50% (vs 83% without MT), the volatility 12% (vs 18% without MT) and the Sharpe ratio 0.54 (vs 0.29 without MT).
    Knowing this, ALFA has a very, very high probability to have a much better risk-adjusted performance than SPY on a full market cycle.
    Of course, you can manage the 200-day sma yourself. But I selected ALFA as a "buy-and-hold" for a passive portion of my portfolio that takes care of itself if I am not able to trade for a while (accident, disease, geopolitical event...)
    I use a lot of backtests, but the foundation is designing or understanding a strategy's architecture and taking a systemic perspective.
    Jul 19, 2015. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    Thanks for the link!
    Jul 19, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    ALFA was launched in 2012, max drawdown is about -12%. I haven't found statistics for the underlying index, just a chart since 2001 (which looks great, with a drawdown likely similar to SPY in 2011 because the correction was not captured by the 200day sma)
    Jul 19, 2015. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF May Be The Safest Equity Ticker [View article]
    Absolutely RM13
    Jul 19, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
789 Comments
445 Likes