Seeking Alpha

Fred Piard

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Fred Piard's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    Yes, I have read somewhere "there is no PE in biotech small caps". It reminds me of similar claims from the pet-dot-com era. Subject of my next article.
    Nov 26, 2014. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Uranium Prices Grow, The Global X Uranium ETF Will Follow [View article]
    Supportive factors on the long-term: Japanese plants to be restarted (total 10'000 to 20'000 MW), plants under construction and in project in China (30'000 to 70'000 MW until 2018), South Korea (11'000 MW until 2021), Brazil (11'000 MW until 2020+) , Russia (9'000 MW until 2018), India (4'000 MW until 2016). Risks: accident, politics, market crash. Disclosure: long URA@ avg 14.5
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Money Management For My 3 VIX Models [View instapost]
    Thanks for your comment. You are right, no guarantee for the future (even if the backtest was 10 years). The drawdown stays reasonable and as long as the risk and trend look OK, I continue to play this with a small portion of my account.
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Where It Is Darkest: When Company, Country, Currency And Commodity Risk Collide! [View article]
    Outstanding article by an outstanding contributor and professor. But I don't play this. For someone with no day job (thanks god) whose financial future directly depends on investing, this is really not the best kind of game in town =:s
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    It may be better to use the inverse ratio: 1/PE. It cannot go to infinite. I have no time to allocate to this now, if you want to do more yourself, here is an extended free trial for the tool and data I have used: http://bit.ly/116JOdw
    Nov 22, 2014. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    the median is better than the average (equal-weight or capital-weight) because it is less sensitive to outliers. The PE average is extreme and meaningless at some points in time because of close to infinite values for some companies. If the median is not accurate to evaluate the index in absolute, it makes sense to compare it to its own historical average, and to check the evolution of its ratio for 2 indexes. That's what I do here.
    Nov 21, 2014. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    Hi Larry. For VOT, the chart looks great now. If you can give me a link to the precise definition of the underlying index, and if it can be translated easily in my tool, I may have a look at its valuation in a next article.
    Nov 20, 2014. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Play A Potential Silver Bottom [View article]
    Sure http://bit.ly/UErG9p
    Nov 20, 2014. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Play A Potential Silver Bottom [View article]
    Good article and good company (the only one with RGLD that I would accept to hold in the PM industry). But since 2008 SLW has outperformed SLV marginally, not enough for me to justify taking the additional risk carried by the business model and the company. For the long term I prefer buying by steps in a bullion fund with reasonable fees (not SLV).
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IWM Divergence: Small Caps Are Still Overpriced [View article]
    You're right, it would have made visually obvious that small caps have gone from a discount to a premium over time.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Delta Is Still A Great Opportunity For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Oil companies valuation ratios are attractive, but meaningless if Saudis continue to dump crude to the US. They can do it, Asian customers pay full price on long term contracts. Airlines look safer. Disclosure: long DAL since Ebolanoïa sunk it.
    Nov 10, 2014. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital Vs. Seagate Technology: The Key Takeaway From Earnings [View article]
    long both stocks now, based on different quant models.
    Nov 10, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital Vs. Seagate Technology: The Key Takeaway From Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Taking into account that STX has 5 times more LT debt relative to equity, at similar fwd P/E ratios the good deal might still be WDC. Disclosure: long WDC too.
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are XLF And Financials Overpriced? [View article]
    @ Ikos: In case it was not clear, I reformulate: XLF and the sector look globally overpriced, with different situations in specific industries. Commercial banks don't look overpriced. REITS and real estate dev. as a group look overpriced according to my metrics. Going on the top-down approach, one might find some REITS that are not overpriced.

    @ Timmies: this series aims at a systemic point of view, not doing the job to the ground level. I might go into more details in some industries.
    Nov 1, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy Gold And Silver 8% Cheaper (Canadian Funds Update) [View article]
    Update's update: CEF discount 9.5% yesterday on close
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
624 Comments
346 Likes