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Fred Piard  

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  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    Michael, Thanks a lot for your insight. In fact I did this study because most of my personal quant models are value-based and some of them have under-performed their benchmark last 6 months. I thought it was just a series of bad trades, but I found on a quant forum that I was not alone in this case: then I have investigated a little bit. Value investing (discretionary or quant) outperforms on the long term, but needs patience: it may lag the market on quite long periods. Else, it would be too easy to build a zero-risk market neutral portfolio. But there is no such thing.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    That's the many-billion dollar question. Looking at the big picture, some clues are pointing to a downturn (this, technicals), while other ones tell that the systemic risk is very low. In short: the ecosystem is not favorable to black swans, but black swans are by essence unpredictable.
    What I did for myself recently: lowering my momentum positions (ETF tactical allocation models) and staying fully invested in my core portfolio, which is market-neutral. It's not predicting, just managing risk.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. Usually low P/E widely outperform on the long-term (see my second chart).
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Underperformance Of Value Stocks Worrisome? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    "Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." - Lao Tzu
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:13 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Right Way To Buy The Dip In Biotech [View article]
    Roche dividend is 3.15% according to Bloomberg...Swiss dividends are much better than US dividends for most non-US tax payers. Long Roche also (not ADR)
    Aug 24, 2015. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Discounts On Gold And Silver (August Update) [View article]
    Peter, Thanks for your comment
    Aug 22, 2015. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Today's Market Collapse Proves And What You Should Do About It [View article]
    "the VIX gapped up for the first time in 25 years"
    You have forgotten February 2007 when the VIX went up 70% in 1 day?
    Aug 21, 2015. 06:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Today's Market Collapse Proves And What You Should Do About It [View article]
    ...or rebalance your hedge and take some gains on this side.
    Aug 21, 2015. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 ETFs To Hold For The Next 25 Years [View article]
    You're right if you mean that Russia has a place in a value-based tactical allocation portfolio, but I don't see it as a core holding. It is a black swan nest.
    Aug 21, 2015. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Oil ETPs: How To Lose Your Shirt Waiting For A Bounce [View article]
    Refiners are doing well. But they should not profit from a bounce (except maybe from an automatic sector lift).
    Aug 20, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Discounts On Gold And Silver (August Update) [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. The value was updated on their website at 4:57pm. My values are on 8/18 after close as written in the article. Unfortunately it went out just after close on 8/19 (4:08pm). SBT is quite illiquid and the discount is calculated with the last transaction for price and LBMA fixing at 12pm for NAV. CEF is much more liquid and fixing is at 3pm for gold (so premium is more accurate). CEF premium is down at 9.5% (US) and 10.2% (Canada).
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hunting For Value In The Dow 30: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    Interesting and long article. My humble opinion (purely quantitative): valuation ratios should be compared to what is comparable (same sector, or better same industry). Historical valuation of a company should be seen in perspective with profitability.
    Aug 19, 2015. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Discounts On Gold And Silver (August Update) [View article]
    Stevlg, thanks for your comment. I don't make predictions. I just think sentiment is not bearish enough to call a bottom. I hold bullion fund shares but I wouldn't add more now. It's better to wait and see with a high dividend (GGN), but it has also some risks and may not play its role if the objective is insurance against major turmoil. Gold miners stocks are... stocks.
    Aug 19, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Oil ETPs: How To Lose Your Shirt Waiting For A Bounce [View article]
    Catching falling knives with leveraged ETFs is a dangerous sport. There are better games in town.
    Aug 19, 2015. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Discounts On Gold And Silver (August Update) [View article]
    Steve, thanks for your comment. I am aware of this issue but have no more info than you. CEF is a long term investment. If Sprott uses a closed-end fund as a holding of his own fund, it is his own management mistake, and his problem if he faces redemption requests. The discount is between 4% and 13% since 2012, and will likely stay in this range until the next gold bull market. Nobody has complained when it traded at a 4% to 12% premium in 2010/2011.
    Aug 19, 2015. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
848 Comments
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