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Fred Piard

 
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  • The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies [View article]
    @IndyDoc1: Thanks for your comment. This is my answer to Harry Long's article: http://bit.ly/1ggaRN7
    I play time decay when it comes from contango (article here: http://bit.ly/SPF7bJ), not when it comes from beta-slippage. They are different animals.
    About extending the concepts, 2 ideas (and probably a couple of articles to come):
    - Changing the pairs in the same models (try replacing DIA with MDY in the momentum switch, and with QQQ in the seasonal switch, for example)
    - mixing sophisticated tactical allocation and seasonal models using sectors and countries...
    May 28 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies [View article]
    Interesting idea, Thanks for the comment.
    May 28 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies [View article]
    You're right bbro, however interest rates only one of the two factors that move bonds. The other one is fear, or call it risk-appetite regulation. When they think there's nowhere else to hide, investors are ready to loose a bit of money to park their capital in a safe place (example: sometimes in the past Switzerland had negative rates on short term bills and bank accounts, it has never deterred foreign investors).
    May 28 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies [View article]
    That's a good point Robin. What you are describing is a deflationary environment. In this case, the best investment is not investing: cash is king. And even in this case, there are annual and short term cycles. Seasonals are strong on all timeframes.
    May 28 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strategy With Literally Fantastic Returns [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Past performance, real or simulated, is never a guarantee, even with historical data on 50 years. The point is not if the VEQTOR model is right or wrong, it is which protections are built-in if it is wrong. I think that the daily rebalancing and the stop-loss provide fair answers. They don't protect from whipsawing, but should reset the holdings before a disastrous loss. The product is far from being perfect, but it offers a reasonable bias and may be useful in combination with other hedging tactics. BTW, it is not an investment, it is a hedging tool: http://bit.ly/1iEZTR2 Disclosure: long position, no interest in promoting any ETP.
    May 22 12:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP Is Turning Around And Ready To Take Off [View article]
    Thanks for your analysis. I am also long HPQ for a while. It was ranked in the top 4 of my S&P 500 Growth&Value model. Next calculation tomorrow night... For 2 months the price is in a sideway consolidation in decreasing volatility and volume, which could lead to a strong directional move.
    May 22 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy Survives, Doesn't Thrive [View article]
    Thanks for your article. I am long BBY for a while. It was ranked in the top 4 of my S&P 500 Earnings Surprise model. A new calculation will tell me if I hold or take profits.
    May 22 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    Thanks for your analysis. I am also long COP for a while. It is ranked #4 in my S&P 500 Dynamic Dividend model. The chart seems to draw a bullish pennant, the 3rd one in 2 months.
    May 22 10:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best S&P 500 Stocks According To A Winning Ranking System [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I am also long DAL. It is ranked #2 for a S&P 500 model I also developed in P123 and whose simulation shows a 57% annualized return last 15 years for the top 2 holdings (without market timing, no hedging, no leverage, no optimization, with trading costs).
    May 21 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    Except for US persons, Zürcher Kantonal Bank metal funds are very good alternatives, but they don't have a discount. Keeping gold at home is not always an option depending on one's lifestyle and place of residence.
    May 18 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    Thanks for your comment and sorry that you are a lost navigator. "Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." Lao Tzu, 5th century BC
    May 16 07:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    "The price cannot be sustainably pushed below $1200 per ounce. It may be possible to manipulate it lower temporarily"
    => I agree with you. But "sustainably " and "temporarily" might be longer than we think. Painting the chart on short time units with HFT to drive the trend is a profitable business model.
    May 16 07:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    Hi Martin. Thanks for your comment. The difference between a pennant and a triangle is the length (a pennant is shorter than 3 weeks) and a steep flagpole. Definition here http://bit.ly/RHRHJ5
    May 16 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    Thanks for your comment David. The linked article says "There is a bullish seasonal trend on metals from November to February". That is what I say that the season is not supportive. I don't claim that it is negative. BTW, this year was very "seasonal": a surge above 200dma in February, then a fall back in March. All what you want to know about seasonal patterns in different asset classes is here: http://bit.ly/1gawbIm
    May 16 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN Work? [View article]
    @Vance: thanks for your article and for your helpful blog.
    @mrsta: about XIV termination events: http://seekingalpha.co... (disclosure: just my guess...I'm the author)
    May 15 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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