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Fred Piard

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  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    thanks for your comment
    Feb 14 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    ZIV is safer by design. But possible drawdowns are still unacceptable for me to "buy-and hold". One of my models switches between XIV, ZIV and cash.
    Feb 14 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    My guess is that "american" options, which are a right to buy or sell shares *before* a date, should be executable on termination day for cash at "Accelerated Redemption Amount" value. But maybe they are worthless. I suggest you ask a confirmation from your broker or the product's issuer.
    Feb 14 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Varan
    Feb 14 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    More precision:
    - In all the article, contango is relative to the short term futures: month 1 to 2.
    - Data are end-of-day. "when the underlying futures are in contango" means checking contango and taking the decision to buy, keep or sell, on close everyday.
    Feb 14 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV Returned 41% A Year For 3 Years: How To Make It Better With Less Risk. [View instapost]
    They are private. Some subscribers follow my signals.
    Feb 14 06:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV Returned 41% A Year For 3 Years: How To Make It Better With Less Risk. [View instapost]
    Hi Marc, I will have a closer look. My signals are weekly, and the model described above has the opposite philosophy: being out of the market most of the time. Both may work.
    Feb 13 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    I prefer being long XIV. I don't like short selling. Not philosophy, just risk management.
    Feb 13 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    correction submitted with the CBOE delayed quote page http://bit.ly/v8FEJ5 , should be updated soon.
    Feb 13 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    You're right, thanks for reporting my mistake. I wanted to give the primary source, but in reality I'm used to checking yours: http://vixcentral.com
    Feb 13 05:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    it was an answer for lovermann, but didn't stick to his post...
    Feb 13 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    If it was not clear, all charts are on the same period. What I wrote is that for XIV, prices before inception date are synthetic (calculated from the underlying index methodology document), and real market price after inception
    Feb 13 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: How To Avoid A Disastrous Loss And Boost Your Total Return. [View article]
    It removes the counterpart risk on Crédit Suisse, it doesn't change the conclusion. Moreover, SVXY has also necessarily termination events. Basically, if VXX spikes more than 100% intraday, the value of any XIV-like product would become negative. Termination events prevent that. I prefer XIV because it is easier to trade before open. Useful if you have to get rid of it when it smells.
    Feb 13 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing: 3 Indicators That Work [View article]
    The EPS estimate was neutral. Now the 3 are bullish. The indicator is on SPY, not DIA. For SPY, the 50-day sma is 6.5% above 200-day sma when I write this. And both sma move much slower than the price.
    Jan 31 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing: 3 Indicators That Work [View article]
    Because it is what I have in my screener database at this time. For moving average-based market timing, you can find publications with statistics since 1900 (google it or go to ssrn.com).
    Jan 31 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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