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Fred Piard

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  • Developments In China Explain The End Of Gold's Rise [View article]
    Beware of your wishes. You and your family may not like a world where Gold is worth 5 or 10k/oz. Gold is an insurance: Buy it, forget about the price and pray you will never need it.
    Jan 30, 2013. 12:53 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short France? [View article]
    The problem of France is demographic: more than 50% of the voting population either works in the public / semi-public sector (with a guarantee of lifetime employment), or is retired. You cannot expect anything from a country as long as more than half of the voters have a past to defend and not a future to build. Small and medium entrepreneurs are slaughtered by taxes and social costs to feed the system. It is still one of the best countries for education in science and engineering, and one of the worst to start a business. The country is loosing some rich people because of taxes, but the worst is that it is loosing lots of brains fleeing abroad. The solutions exist but don't pass the social crash-test: massive cuts in public employees, increasing the age of retirement, and immigration of a new working class.
    Apr 15, 2013. 12:29 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Price Tumbles But Don't Worry [View article]
    "you never know what's behind a move like this"
    Yes we know what's behind with a high probability. Stop hunting using HFT in low liquidity hours is a juicy business model. The golden pump works well for years, and the silver pump much better. And we also have an idea about who is behind. Just check the short side in the COT report.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:38 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Is Fat: The Law Of Supply And Demand And The Western Diet [View article]
    If your shorts are too tight, change them before it hurts.
    Mar 15, 2013. 10:31 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nomenclature: Will Herbalife Copy Nuskin? [View article]
    Hi Matt, do you have a consistent thesis to explain that the fastest growing market for HLF is China (32% last year), whereas MLM is illegal in China and HLF has a classic retail business model there ?
    Or maybe they really have good products at a fair price?
    Data here:
    Disclosure: I don't care about the stock price. no HLF position, no HLF distributor, no HLF staff or subcontractor. Consumer of HLF nutritional supplements for 8 years.
    Feb 21, 2013. 12:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick's Pascua-Lama Announcement: Will Have A Huge Impact On Future Gold And Silver Supply [View article]
    Before being a drag for Barrick, Pascua Lama is an environmental disaster and an economical disaster for farmers on the chilean side. They are businessmen, not "lefty populist". And I'm not an eco-lobbyist: MSc in civil engineering, major in mining.
    And Chile has nothing to do with Venezuela. It is less corrupted than some developped countries. By the way, this might be Barrick's problem.
    Nov 1, 2013. 10:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which VIX Spike Could Kill XIV? Here Are The Numbers. [View article]
    It's a money machine with a time bomb inside.
    Feb 21, 2014. 05:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can't Beat Mickey Mouse, So Stay Out Of Herbalife [View article]
    In 2013 (excl. Q4) about 10% of HLF net sales comes from China, where the MLM plan doesn't apply. The Chinese net sales are up 53% Y/Y on Q1 to Q3. It is not a legal proof against the pyramidal thesis, it just proves that HLF doesn't need a pyramidal scheme, or even a fair MLM model, to grow more than 50% a year in a developing market. Source: key metrics pdf document on their their IR website: Worst case scenario: a fine if accounting reports or other details are not compliant. Disclosure: no position at this time.
    Jan 14, 2014. 12:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
    This is a valuable trading instrument, but not for the average investor.
    These instruments are among the most "derived" of derivatives. Imagine an inverse ETN on futures on an index calculated on options intrisic volatility on stocks from the S&P500 index. I don't think than half of the people buying this stuff understand the concept, without speaking of those who have a rough idea of the mathematical model. Beware of considering volatility as an asset class, even if it is fashionable and *currently* profitable.
    Apr 16, 2013. 10:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    Well documented article. I have just read this morning (but not verified) that the commercial shorts on the Comex have increased once again. We may visit the support in the next couple of months. Like backseatdriver, I'm waiting for your next article on the goat/silver ratio ;-)
    Jan 11, 2013. 08:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year That Gold Dies? [View article]
    not only China: Russia, Mexico and some asian countries.
    George, I think your price "out of the ground" excludes financial costs such as debt, taxes,... Canadian and US miners have the cheapest production costs, but South African mines have an average breakeven above 1600.
    Owning only gold is not very smart, neither is selling now.
    Dec 31, 2012. 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strategy With Literally Fantastic Returns [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Past performance, real or simulated, is never a guarantee, even with historical data on 50 years. The point is not if the VEQTOR model is right or wrong, it is which protections are built-in if it is wrong. I think that the daily rebalancing and the stop-loss provide fair answers. They don't protect from whipsawing, but should reset the holdings before a disastrous loss. The product is far from being perfect, but it offers a reasonable bias and may be useful in combination with other hedging tactics. BTW, it is not an investment, it is a hedging tool: Disclosure: long position, no interest in promoting any ETP.
    May 22, 2014. 12:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    Thanks for your comment and sorry that you are a lost navigator. "Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." Lao Tzu, 5th century BC
    May 16, 2014. 07:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    "The price cannot be sustainably pushed below $1200 per ounce. It may be possible to manipulate it lower temporarily"
    => I agree with you. But "sustainably " and "temporarily" might be longer than we think. Painting the chart on short time units with HFT to drive the trend is a profitable business model.
    May 16, 2014. 07:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy Portfolio Strategy: Keep It Simple, Stupid [View article]
    ...and don't worry about the mean: "if you don't go back to the mean, the mean will come to you " ;-)
    Aug 9, 2013. 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment