Fred Pollack

Nvidia: Bulls See Expanding Profits

Over the next 6 to 9 months, nVidia should continue its recovery. But over the longer term there are significant problems.

In 2010, the available TAM for nVidia’s integrated graphics chipsets decreases over time (due to Intel's Arrandale, Clarksdale, Pine Trail, and Sandy Bridge). By mid-2011, if not sooner, it will be ~0. Also, the TAM for discrete graphics (starting in 2010) will decrease over time, but not as dramatically, due to significant improvement in Intel’s graphics integrated with the processor. And then starting in ~1Q2010, AMD and nVidia will have a new competitor in Intel’s Larrabee. Over the next 2 to 3 years, Intel could become the market leader in discrete graphics.

For more details, see my blog post at: fredpollack.wordpress..../