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Fred Voetsch  

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  • The Shiller P/E: Alas, A Useless Friend [View article]
    Thanks.
    Dec 7, 2012. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shiller P/E: Alas, A Useless Friend [View article]
    No, that is still allowing you to guide me to all of your posts that make you look good. That's like buying a used car without taking it to my own mechanic. What I would like is a complete index or way for me to view all of your posts by date.
    Dec 6, 2012. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shiller P/E: Alas, A Useless Friend [View article]
    I'm glad to see some reasoned comments here. The article is useful, especially for some, but that really is MY point: that the Schiller PE or the Rule of 20 are both just tools and one should find out which tools work best for the job they are doing. Declaring the Schiller PE "useless" is flat out wrong, because it has been very useful for me, and I assume, many others.

    I find the info here to be interesting and that is why I asked to be able to easily look through all of the author's postings; I would not bother with someone who is obviously wrong but I always make a point of doing thorough research on my own.
    Dec 6, 2012. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shiller P/E: Alas, A Useless Friend [View article]
    I have a few more comments...

    The author wrote:

    <<<<
    "Operating" earnings are a better gauge of index profits;
    Assessing current indices against the last 10-year earnings is flawed;
    Looking at past evidence, the Shiller P/E is simply useless as a market valuation tool;
    There is at least one alternative.
    >>>>

    Operating earnings have certain uses and GAAP earnings have other uses. It is usually a mistake to mix and match. Ignoring GAAP earnings completely, since they are all that you have prior to the 1990's, is sure to end badly.

    Saying that "Assessing current indices against the last 10-year earnings is flawed" is the same as saying, "This time it's different", and that never works out well.

    The Schiller PE is like any tool, it works out well if you use if for the right job at the right time. It is no more and no less valuable than it was ten years ago or ten days ago.

    The "Rule of 20" is not an alternative. To a smart investor/trader it is a different tool. If you try to replace a shovel with a post hole digger and throw away your shovel you're going to be very sorry at some point in the future.
    Dec 4, 2012. 05:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shiller P/E: Alas, A Useless Friend [View article]
    There is good information here, the problem is that you are ignoring good, well proven data by dismissing Schiller's data. What so many find out is that it is just when you're ready to write off some old, fuddy-duddy piece of data such as GAAP accounting principles, Schiller PE or Dow Theory, is exactly the time when they do you the most good.

    Denis, will you tell me how I can get a complete index of your blog so that I can do a real investigation into your track record?...you paint a pretty picture but it just seems very unusual that I can't navigate back through ALL of your posts.
    Dec 4, 2012. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression To Trend: A Perspective On Long-Term Market Performance [View article]
    And I am sure someone warning you about the S&P dropping below 800 a few years ago would have done it for you also. Markets don't wait for your approval so it's wise to consider what has happened over history and the stock market going to below trend for a long period of time is not only possible, but given the trend since 2000, likely.
    Nov 2, 2012. 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thankless Thursday: Still Waiting For That Stimulus To Kick In [View article]
    It frightens me that people like you exist.
    Nov 2, 2012. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thankless Thursday: Still Waiting For That Stimulus To Kick In [View article]
    He said an 'average' of 115 degrees.
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thankless Thursday: Still Waiting For That Stimulus To Kick In [View article]
    Please read my previous reply, which is just a few lines above. Many of those melting glaciers are exposing settlements...explain that if this warmth is unprecedented. Your anger and hysteria hurts your own position on this subject.
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thankless Thursday: Still Waiting For That Stimulus To Kick In [View article]
    Tsunamis are caused by earthquakes, which have nothing to do with global climate change. The storms we are seeing today are no more and no more exteme than have happened throughout known history. We may find, as we have more data, that they are happening more often and that they are becoming more extreme but that is not currently the case. By the way, I consider myself a very well informed layman on this subject and I do believe in man-made global warming.

    Good, reasonable data, well presented and backed by respected scientists will eventually win over the public, hysteria will not.
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    I love this kind of basic data based on historical data. So many investors/traders just refuse to accept how important it is to have a historical perspective on the markets.
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression To Trend: A Perspective On Long-Term Market Performance [View article]
    Doom and gloom? Someone shows you data and you reply with that? Now I understand why the vast majority of 'investors' lose money.
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • P-E Ratios: Lessons From Conflicting Indications [View article]
    From what I've seen, when discussing valuations in the form of P/E ratios with people, it takes a good feel for the market and market history, as well as a respect for sound data (not using operating earnings when comparing to historical averages based on GAAP earnings, for example) to make good use of the P/E ratio. Too many people use data to reinforce an existing bias; I try not to be one of them.
    Oct 26, 2012. 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Based On Real Math The S&P 500 Is Fairly Valued [View article]
    Yes. Wait for an opportunity to buy something at a real value. Patience is the greatest skill I have learned in trading/investing.
    Oct 26, 2012. 06:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Based On Real Math The S&P 500 Is Fairly Valued [View article]
    My mistake, I now see that you are going back only to 1994 for your 'historical' data, in which case I would advise all those reading to look at a bit more of history.
    Oct 26, 2012. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
832 Comments
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