Fred Voetsch

Shooting for 100% Return in One Month

Glenn, I am sure you're a well meaning young man but please listen to the comments here - you'll learn a lot.

Here are the first 5 picks from your previous article,

seekingalpha.com/artic...

VSE Corp. (VSEC) Your pick on Aug 11, 2008 at 40, now at 27

Sigma Designs, Inc. (SIGM) - Your pick on Aug 11, 2008 at 18, now at 14

Hurco Companies, Inc. (HURC) - Your pick on Aug 11, 2008 at 33, now at 15

Ebix, Inc. (EBIX) - Your pick on Aug 11, 2008 at 38, now at 29

Middleby Corp. (MIDD) - Your pick on Aug 11, 2008 at 53, now at 44


I believe you had 16 picks but they all seemed to have the same look; they got creamed along with the market and have had a recent runup but are still all losers since your suggestion to buy.

The lessons here are:

1. Never, ever listen to Cramer, except for his interview by Jon Stewart, which exposed him as a liar and a criminal.

2. Do not ignore the macro economy. It will determine the direction of the vast majority of stocks.

3. Learn to recognize historic patterns and valuations in the stock market and the economy.

4. Listen to the old timers. Start by subscribing to Richard Russell's newsletter. It's cheap and full of wisdom.


Last but not least, don't get too cocky towards the end of a bear market rally. The problem is not that you'll look like a fool in a month but that you'll be broke in a month and defending your decision to stay long as you get broker and broker.

Most of all, be objective and question every piece of data you hear. An example is the S&P 500's P/E ratio being 13 or 15 or whatever Bloomberg and CNBC say it is. Read this, www2.standardandpoors.... it is from Standard and Poor's and says the following, "425 issues (88.94% mkt val) rptd: initial good reports long gone, actuals are -18% off ests (see Energy note), and -36.1% behind last year" and this, "Sales down -13.7% with 109 beating last year and 315 falling short" and this, "As Rpt EPS for 12 Mo Sep,'09 estimated to be negative ($-1.83 EPS) - first time in index history". Things are not getting better, they are just getting worse more slowly.

Good luck!

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

On May 01 11:02 AM Wise Golden wrote:

> Sideways market since April 9th? You lost me there -- you must have
> been talking about April 9th of some other year. April 2009 was the
> second best month in stock market history.


April 9th close was 8,083 and April 30th close was 8,168.

That looks pretty flat to me, a 1% gain to be exact.