Fred Voetsch

Stocks Are Cheap: Finding Exceptional Value in Today's Market

On Feb 24 09:47 AM antiquary wrote:

> I'm glad to see more people not buying into the "the world is coming
> to an end" idiocy.

Idiocy is ignoring facts and hard data.

I have geard nobody say the world is coming to an end but I have heard many like you - you know, those shills on CNBC like Larry Kudlow - say "...unless the world is coming to an end." and what I would say to each of them is that the world as you knew it has come to an end.

The Great Depression was only 80 years ago and yet fools like you insist it can't happen again. How many times do you think that has been repeated througout history?

The stock market is falling at the same rate as during The Great Depression and we have a worse financial situation and yet we still hear fools insist that we are "bottoming", all while earnings get worse, the housing market continues to deteriorate and stocks reach new lows.

I make money in this market because I listen to facts and people who have proven track records not because I ignore facts and listen to people like Larry Kudlow or you or the author, who has yet to learn that he had better rein in that "forward earnings" BS before it completely bankrupts him.

Stocks Are Cheap: Finding Exceptional Value in Today's Market

On Feb 24 12:16 PM paultaut wrote:

> The World is not coming to an end.
>
> But The End of an Era is here. Stocks trading at some idiot multiple
> based on projected earning 3 years down the road, That Era has ended.


Exactly!

The world as we knew it IS coming to an end, and in fact, has.

Stocks Are Cheap: Finding Exceptional Value in Today's Market

Stocks are not cheap they are probably at about "fair value" if you look at historic values.

The question is whether or not they will revert beneath the mean average as stocks tend to do during a secular bear market.

The author makes the same mistake as most investors and analysts who have been dead wrong all along since the market began its reversion to the mean: this is not another bull market correction and we are not in the 1970's when inflation was the problem and the stock market was only 2,6x its previous bull market high of 1929. This is 2009 and the market rose some 14x from its bull market high in 1966 and we have deflation and it is easy to see, based on how much leverage we have left in the system, that we have much more deflating to do.

All of this is based on hard data and not wishful thinking. I use the complete history of the stock market to come to my conclusion, not just a few decades. Please read some of my other posts for many more reasons why the stock market will go much lower.

Dow 5,000 this year and Dow 3,000 before we hit bottom.