Fred Voetsch

The Ultimate Risk of Government Influence Over the Private Sector (Part 2)

Our entire system is clearly corrupt and so much so now that there is no reason to hide it anymore. Those in power buy off the average American with a bear market rally while the rest of their countrymen ignore the looting of their republic because they are too busy watching porn, American Idol or waiting for their tax refund that is going to be paid by someone else who apparently makes a whole lot more money than they.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

On May 01 11:02 AM Wise Golden wrote:

> Sideways market since April 9th? You lost me there -- you must have
> been talking about April 9th of some other year. April 2009 was the
> second best month in stock market history.


April 9th close was 8,083 and April 30th close was 8,168.

That looks pretty flat to me, a 1% gain to be exact.

BlackRock: Goldman's Q1 Profit Non-Recurring and a Result of AIG Unwinds

On Apr 15 06:30 AM I weep for this country. wrote:

> I disagree. I think GS were pretty brillant here. They got their
> buddies in the Fed and Congress to destroy AIG and use it both as
> a scapegoat and flow through vehicle to cover all of their CDO exposure
> 100 cents on the dollar. On the eve of the public finding out just
> where all of those billions went, the media and the government went
> completely ape sh#t over 125 million dollars in bonuses paid to AIG
> employees recruited to unwind the CDOS and of which the government
> intented on paying from the beginning. All the while escaping the
> ferovor was the bonuses paid to Merrill, Citi, Fannie and Freddie.
> And the public bought it, the fervor was all about those bonuses
> not why was GS completely bailed and paid out 100%. Just Brillant!

Brilliant, but totally corrupt and when the folks take up their pitchforks and reenact the French Revolution I hope the first place they head to is GS. At the very least we need to throw Hank Paulson and may other of the GS people in prison for a very long time.

BlackRock: Goldman's Q1 Profit Non-Recurring and a Result of AIG Unwinds

On Apr 15 06:30 AM I weep for this country. wrote:

> I disagree. I think GS were pretty brillant here. They got their
> buddies in the Fed and Congress to destroy AIG and use it both as
> a scapegoat and flow through vehicle to cover all of their CDO exposure
> 100 cents on the dollar. On the eve of the public finding out just
> where all of those billions went, the media and the government went
> completely ape sh#t over 125 million dollars in bonuses paid to AIG
> employees recruited to unwind the CDOS and of which the government
> intented on paying from the beginning. All the while escaping the
> ferovor was the bonuses paid to Merrill, Citi, Fannie and Freddie.
> And the public bought it, the fervor was all about those bonuses
> not why was GS completely bailed and paid out 100%. Just Brillant!

Brilliant, but totally corrupt and when the folks take up their pitchforks and reenact the French Revolution I hope the first place they head to is GS. At the very least we need to throw Hank Paulson and may other of the GS people in prison for a very long time.

Sick of Hyperbolic Rubish

When it comes to politics or religion you should stick to your guns but when it comes to investing you should rely on hard data and makes sure all your facts are straight and understand that every expert will be wrong on a regular basis. If you can rise above all the emotion it is very easy to profit in this economy.

Markets Have a Long Way to Go

On Mar 04 10:24 AM accountant wrote:

> The difference between this one and the big one is that we were not
> in any type of signifcant bubble, stock market wise...

Wrong.

In 2000 the stock market was more overvalued than at anytime in history and was in the process of correcting. Enter Greenspan and his easy money policy and the bubble once again continued to grow. This time however, it didn't look as much like a bubble because the P/E ratios weren't quite as high. That's because home prices had been inflated more than anything else and so the earnings that flowed from HELOC loans and refinancing of homes APPEARED to be real wealth; but it was not.

Consider this: in 2000 the Dow peaked at 11,000 and only 7 years later it was up 30%. In 2000 the stock market was more overpriced than even in 1929 and yet that 30% increase in seven years outpaced inflation; what does that tell you?

So there we are in 2007 with not only a seriously inflated stock market but an even more seriously inflated housing market and a world economy built upon all of that false wealth.

POP!

We have a long ways to go before this is over. Hopefully we will not have 25% unemployment and soup lines but we certainly are nowhere near out of the woods.

Wall Street's New Math

" year ago everyone was looking at operating earnings, while now people want to look at GAAP earnings including writedowns."

"as reported" earnings are what has been used throughout history going back to the beginnings of stock market history.

You can compare apples with oranges if you wish and keep buying into this market but fooling oneself seems like a poor idea to me.

In fact, as you will see if you look at S&P's earnings reports - www2.standardandpoors.... - you will notice that "as reported" and "operating" earnings are diverging so that NOW there is more reason for polyana's to use operating earnings rather than "as reported".

See papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p... for a quick summary on this.

America's Insolvent Banks

Assuming we stop the stupid practices of loaning to people who can't pay a loan back, time, bankruptcy and the taxpayer will solve this problem but not without a lot of pain to come.