Fred Voetsch

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

The stock market may crash or it may not but it will likely crush a lot of people both long and short along the way. We were warned by some very smart people (Louise Yamada comes to mind) that wealth distruction is what is coming and to really do the job properly we have to be dealt with emotionally; the market will go up 50% and just when everyone jumps on board, scared to miss the runup the market falls. The market falls like a rock and just when everyone jumps aboard those double-short ETF's it reverses course and bulls ahead.

The market is us and that's what most never understand, and we have trained ourselves for the past several decades to believe we are genuises and can beat the market but my guess is that the market is about to beat all of us...senseless.

Why Stock Charts Are Misleading

I don't buy it. Stock charts are stock charts and they have been doing their job for a lot longer than you and I have been alive. They are just one part of the equation and an astute investor understands that.

Changing long-standing methods is not something to be taken lightly. We currently have stock analysts trying to convince us that operating earnings are what we should be looking at even though all long term historical earnings are based on as-reported earnings. We should ask WHY someone wishes to change. In the case of earnings it it so they can continue to sell us stocks that are overpriced even after having dropped 50%. It is so they can conveniently ignore the losses that are due to profits that WEREN'T ignored as they leveraged up. This is a scam, plain and simple and any investor who falls for it deserves what they get.

The Ultimate Risk of Government Influence Over the Private Sector (Part 2)

Our entire system is clearly corrupt and so much so now that there is no reason to hide it anymore. Those in power buy off the average American with a bear market rally while the rest of their countrymen ignore the looting of their republic because they are too busy watching porn, American Idol or waiting for their tax refund that is going to be paid by someone else who apparently makes a whole lot more money than they.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

On May 01 11:02 AM Wise Golden wrote:

> Sideways market since April 9th? You lost me there -- you must have
> been talking about April 9th of some other year. April 2009 was the
> second best month in stock market history.


April 9th close was 8,083 and April 30th close was 8,168.

That looks pretty flat to me, a 1% gain to be exact.

Bank Stocks Will Return to Prior Norms

So let's see...Jason Schwarz or Meredith Whitney? Jason Schwarz or Meredith Whitney? Which one to listen to?

...hmmm....

Well, here are a few of your previous articles that might give me a hint:

seekingalpha.com/artic...
Let's see...September 16, 2008...was that a good time to buy? I can't remember....

seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Inaccurate data moves the markets in the short term but over time, the market will overcome its panic and focus on real data. With all the negativity that has been thrown around this year the truth actually sounds like a lie. We have GDP growth at 3.3%, unemployment is still in the 5% range despite a housing meltdown, Apple can't produce enough iPhones to sell, and corporate earnings (excluding financials) have held up remarkably well. These positives will get priced in as the panic continues to subside."

...I really love:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
...in which you stated, "There is a secret concerning high foreclosure rates that investors have yet to grasp. It's all about turning lemons into lemonade, something American consumers do so well. Analysts project 1 in 33 homeowners will face foreclosure over the next two years. These foreclosures will free up an additional $4 billion a month in consumer spending. Maybe this wave of foreclosures isn't so bad after all."

And here you predict a second-half rally in 2008:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

In this one you try to convince us that "p/e ratios remained tame":
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Do you still believe that, even though earnings were -$23 in Q4 and the current P/E using Q4 earnings is well over 50? See www2.standardandpoors....

Best of luck to you, Jason, and I mean that sincerly, but people, please don't listen to this kid. He doesn't yet know how to be objective about investing and he ignores or distorts negative data, as the foreclosure comment shows.

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

For all of you who really want to see how this whole bubble was caused you should click on over to www.generationaldynami...

This is a self-perpetuating cycle and while we should jail some of these criminals we should also understand our own place in the bubble.

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

Who can argue?

I just thought I would repeat the most important line of the article:

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have."

It's Not a Crisis, But a Chaotic Calamity

I am researching Mr. Inger to find out if his newsletter is worth subscribing to and my conclusion is that I will gladly pay for the insight of someone so wise.

I am reading this in March of 2009 and I am greatly impressed. For a year and a half I have been able to find only a handful of Wall Street types who get it, and got it; before the carnage began.

In that time I have profited and been right more often than wrong about the direction of this market but the insight shown by Mr. Inger as I have researched him has been truly impressive. My advice to anyone who will listen is to pay attention to this man and at least to incorporate his insight with your own.

Credit Card Cancer

Mr Schiff has the basics right but during a crisis is not the time to change directions 180 degrees.

People get that they need to save more and pay down debt but taking away their lines of credit while their jobs are also disappearning is a sure road to a despression rather than just a severe recession.

Time is the missing ingredient to most suggested cures for our economic sickness and time is what it will take.

Peter Schiff gets the basics but he keeps messing up on how to apply what he knows.

Economic Games of Misdirection and Sleight of Hand

Excellent. There are no more magic tricks that will keep this market from going where it needs to go.

For all the people who think I want bad things to happen, you are wrong; bad things have ALREADY happened and PEOPLE LIKE YOU helped cause them. PEOPLE LIKE YOU believed the stock market could go up forever; PEOPLE LIKE YOU believed house prices would go up forever; PEOPLE LIKE YOU believed it was okay to have massive amounts of debt and no savings.

POP!

Profitability Propelled the Recent Rally

Operating profits are not the problem. Read this article to gain a bit of perspective:

www.fool.com/m.aspx?i=...

Then you should ask yourslef why you would believe anything that these people tell you when they have outright lied to us again and again.

Do some real research and when you discover dozens of things such as falling home values, highly leveraged banks and consumers, a terrible outlook on demographics, international trade falling off a cliff, falling corporate earnings, do not let one piece of "good news" which isn't even news, sway you.

Bankrupting Leverage: Is the U.S. a Zombie Nation?

LOVE IT, if only because your plan of action is bold and forces us to face the consequences of our actions. IMO, that is the main thing needed to start us moving in the right direction.

Scary Numbers, Part II

On Mar 06 12:08 PM buddy_j wrote:

> When "everyone" was saying that the markets were just going to go
> up ... up ... up....it was probably time to get out.
>
> When "everyone" says we're now headed (if not already in) a "great
> depression," it's probably time to get in.


Or you could actually look at economic indicators and data that will make it very clear to you that getting in should still be a ways off.

Scary Numbers, Part II

"Two appearances ago on CNBC I said that Citi (C) would not go to zero as the bailout / investment by the government would take that off the table. Why would they throw billions at the problem only to then let it fail? Either my conclusion was wrong or someone forgot to tell the market."

Imagine that...someone on CNBC being wrong.

Mr. Market Has Spoken

Good stuff, though a bit long winded.

I disagree that we can blame all of this on a few "robber barrons". We need to look at who really sold out and it was us. We came to believe that we deserved a bigger house and an extra car and that the stock market always goes up. We have become slaves and we not only allowed it but we are now pissed that it i sgoing away; most of us. Not me, I am happy that we are "resetting" and I plan to be a better person for this crisis era.

What I am trying to take out of all this mess is that I am responsible for me and mine and I want to pass that attitude on to the new generation. I want them to see what we have done wrong and that they need to reject the values that caused this.