Fred Voetsch

Whitney Tilson Still Sees Numerous Stock Buying Opportunities

Good data. I believe the market goes lower over the course of this year but along the way tremendous buying opportunities will present themselves just as they did at the lows of other bear markets.

It is never too early to start making a list of companies that will survive and lead the recovery.

One Chart, Plus One Additional Word

What caught me about that chart is the long term downward trend. The short term data could be read as a bottom but only if you believe that there are engines of growth to overwhelm the demographic problems we face coupled with the continued deleveraing to come.

BTW, Cetin, hope is not an engine of growth, or an investing strategy.

;-)

Markets Have a Long Way to Go

On Mar 04 10:24 AM accountant wrote:

> The difference between this one and the big one is that we were not
> in any type of signifcant bubble, stock market wise...

Wrong.

In 2000 the stock market was more overvalued than at anytime in history and was in the process of correcting. Enter Greenspan and his easy money policy and the bubble once again continued to grow. This time however, it didn't look as much like a bubble because the P/E ratios weren't quite as high. That's because home prices had been inflated more than anything else and so the earnings that flowed from HELOC loans and refinancing of homes APPEARED to be real wealth; but it was not.

Consider this: in 2000 the Dow peaked at 11,000 and only 7 years later it was up 30%. In 2000 the stock market was more overpriced than even in 1929 and yet that 30% increase in seven years outpaced inflation; what does that tell you?

So there we are in 2007 with not only a seriously inflated stock market but an even more seriously inflated housing market and a world economy built upon all of that false wealth.

POP!

We have a long ways to go before this is over. Hopefully we will not have 25% unemployment and soup lines but we certainly are nowhere near out of the woods.

An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

>>>U.S. stocks, at 10x earnings

No. Just check out the S&P webbsite or Bloomberg TV each weekend and you will see that current/trailing earnings are around 20x, even as earnings fall and in all likelyhood will continue to fall for quite awhile.

Long term PE ratios are 15/16 AVERAGE and commonly drop to 10x or under in bear markets. BTW, we are due for a long bear market and have obviously entered one and you should expect it to last as long as 15+ years similar to 1929-1952 or 1966-1982.

Book value is still very high compared to historic norms and that must revert to the mean. Don't be fooled by stats that only go back to the 80's and 90's or you get what you deserve for ignoring history.

There will be investing opportunities but don't be foolish and think the bear market is over.