Fred Voetsch

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Wish I could vote thumbs up for this one a few more times...LOVED IT!


On Nov 19 12:49 PM j-dub wrote:

> COUNTERPOINT:
>
> Since I lost my job earlier this year, I am able to stay home and
> watch CNBC all day, everyday. And I've learned three very valuable
> pieces of information from watching day in and day out that I am
> happy to pass on:
>
> 1) Everything is fine.
>
> 2) Our government is making ALL the right moves because Ben Bernake
> is a genius.
>
> 3) The economy is just a bit behind schedule concerning employment.
> That'll solve itself. (refer to #1)
>
> Watch a lot more CNBC Mr. Clark, and you'll come to the same conclusions.
> They don't get involved with all those fancy numbers and such and
> it's fun to watch Cramer jump around.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

The stock market may crash or it may not but it will likely crush a lot of people both long and short along the way. We were warned by some very smart people (Louise Yamada comes to mind) that wealth distruction is what is coming and to really do the job properly we have to be dealt with emotionally; the market will go up 50% and just when everyone jumps on board, scared to miss the runup the market falls. The market falls like a rock and just when everyone jumps aboard those double-short ETF's it reverses course and bulls ahead.

The market is us and that's what most never understand, and we have trained ourselves for the past several decades to believe we are genuises and can beat the market but my guess is that the market is about to beat all of us...senseless.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

On May 01 11:02 AM Wise Golden wrote:

> Sideways market since April 9th? You lost me there -- you must have
> been talking about April 9th of some other year. April 2009 was the
> second best month in stock market history.


April 9th close was 8,083 and April 30th close was 8,168.

That looks pretty flat to me, a 1% gain to be exact.

Bank Stocks Will Return to Prior Norms

So let's see...Jason Schwarz or Meredith Whitney? Jason Schwarz or Meredith Whitney? Which one to listen to?

...hmmm....

Well, here are a few of your previous articles that might give me a hint:

seekingalpha.com/artic...
Let's see...September 16, 2008...was that a good time to buy? I can't remember....

seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Inaccurate data moves the markets in the short term but over time, the market will overcome its panic and focus on real data. With all the negativity that has been thrown around this year the truth actually sounds like a lie. We have GDP growth at 3.3%, unemployment is still in the 5% range despite a housing meltdown, Apple can't produce enough iPhones to sell, and corporate earnings (excluding financials) have held up remarkably well. These positives will get priced in as the panic continues to subside."

...I really love:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
...in which you stated, "There is a secret concerning high foreclosure rates that investors have yet to grasp. It's all about turning lemons into lemonade, something American consumers do so well. Analysts project 1 in 33 homeowners will face foreclosure over the next two years. These foreclosures will free up an additional $4 billion a month in consumer spending. Maybe this wave of foreclosures isn't so bad after all."

And here you predict a second-half rally in 2008:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

In this one you try to convince us that "p/e ratios remained tame":
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Do you still believe that, even though earnings were -$23 in Q4 and the current P/E using Q4 earnings is well over 50? See www2.standardandpoors....

Best of luck to you, Jason, and I mean that sincerly, but people, please don't listen to this kid. He doesn't yet know how to be objective about investing and he ignores or distorts negative data, as the foreclosure comment shows.

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

For all of you who really want to see how this whole bubble was caused you should click on over to www.generationaldynami...

This is a self-perpetuating cycle and while we should jail some of these criminals we should also understand our own place in the bubble.

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

Who can argue?

I just thought I would repeat the most important line of the article:

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have."

Cramer's Stop Trading! Markets Taking a Breather (3/19/09)

If Cramer suggests it I'm gonna do it!

Ahahahaha!!!

Why Stock Prices Don't Matter

You make some good points but I sense a little too much of the 80's and 90's mentality in your discussion. Those days are over and one must have a very clear macro view before determining valuations for individual companies.

MSFT, as an example, may have lots of cash and no debt but they will be hurt badly by a steadily shrinking economy; whereas a small company with lots of cash and no debt can easily focus on new avenues of revenue to generate growth.

...just some things to think about.

Economic Games of Misdirection and Sleight of Hand

Excellent. There are no more magic tricks that will keep this market from going where it needs to go.

For all the people who think I want bad things to happen, you are wrong; bad things have ALREADY happened and PEOPLE LIKE YOU helped cause them. PEOPLE LIKE YOU believed the stock market could go up forever; PEOPLE LIKE YOU believed house prices would go up forever; PEOPLE LIKE YOU believed it was okay to have massive amounts of debt and no savings.

POP!

Profitability Propelled the Recent Rally

Operating profits are not the problem. Read this article to gain a bit of perspective:

www.fool.com/m.aspx?i=...

Then you should ask yourslef why you would believe anything that these people tell you when they have outright lied to us again and again.

Do some real research and when you discover dozens of things such as falling home values, highly leveraged banks and consumers, a terrible outlook on demographics, international trade falling off a cliff, falling corporate earnings, do not let one piece of "good news" which isn't even news, sway you.

Bankrupting Leverage: Is the U.S. a Zombie Nation?

LOVE IT, if only because your plan of action is bold and forces us to face the consequences of our actions. IMO, that is the main thing needed to start us moving in the right direction.

Scary Numbers, Part II

On Mar 06 12:08 PM buddy_j wrote:

> When "everyone" was saying that the markets were just going to go
> up ... up ... up....it was probably time to get out.
>
> When "everyone" says we're now headed (if not already in) a "great
> depression," it's probably time to get in.


Or you could actually look at economic indicators and data that will make it very clear to you that getting in should still be a ways off.

Scary Numbers, Part II

"Two appearances ago on CNBC I said that Citi (C) would not go to zero as the bailout / investment by the government would take that off the table. Why would they throw billions at the problem only to then let it fail? Either my conclusion was wrong or someone forgot to tell the market."

Imagine that...someone on CNBC being wrong.

Where Are They Now? A Look at Stocks on 10/10/96

On Mar 05 02:32 AM PeteK wrote:

> Some called 1996 the gold old days.
> 12 years from now, people may say
> "2009 was the Best Opportunity Ever !!"
> or, "Once in A Life Time Opportunity !!"

Much more likely that the market will just be getting back to these levels in 12 years. Let's meet back here and compare notes, shall we?

Now if you can manage to buy at the low of 3,000 or 2,000 or whatever it may end up being you will be in for the opportunity of a lifetime.

Good luck to you.

Wall Street's New Math

" year ago everyone was looking at operating earnings, while now people want to look at GAAP earnings including writedowns."

"as reported" earnings are what has been used throughout history going back to the beginnings of stock market history.

You can compare apples with oranges if you wish and keep buying into this market but fooling oneself seems like a poor idea to me.

In fact, as you will see if you look at S&P's earnings reports - www2.standardandpoors.... - you will notice that "as reported" and "operating" earnings are diverging so that NOW there is more reason for polyana's to use operating earnings rather than "as reported".

See papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p... for a quick summary on this.