Fred Voetsch

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

"The other day Laszlo Byrini made a comment that I have made many times before (not sure who originated it) which is that the bear case is always more compelling and more articulate. I can't make a convincing bull argument. Ages ago (the end of 2008), I made the case for a big snapback rally based on the simple fact that no matter how bad things are (were), after hideous declines the market retraces a noticeable portion fairly quickly."

The first part is a very good point. The second part points out its weakness since Byrini has been shilling the market and publishing bad PE data since late 2008, when the Dow was at about the same level as it is now. hmmm...

The bear case was right. THAT IS A FACT. The stock market is off 35% from its high and we are still in a primary bear market, according to the foremost experts on Dow theory and are in a classic bear market rally. All you are doing right now is setting yourself up to look like a complete and total fool when the primary trend continues.

I suggest you listen and learn as you go through life rather than spending the majority of your time an effort in justifying your bad decisions. Look up "The Greatest Bull Market in History" and actually see how people made excuses and continued to lose their wealth because they couldn't see that the 1920's were over. Check out the period after the crash of '29 and see how similar that is to now. Note that we have much larger problems now than then.

Study historic valuations and you'll see that we have much farther to go on the downside - or many more years to go - before the market achieves those great valuations that mark the bottom of a SECULAR BEAR MARKET.

Perma bears ARE wrong but what do you say to someone like me or Gene Inger or Richard Russell or the many others who have always been bullish and only turned bearish recently and have good reason and still have good reason? It seems to me you make excuses and the same mistakes that the perma bears make.