Fred Voetsch

Has the Market Actually Bottomed?

On Apr 03 01:10 PM Jonas Elmerraji wrote:

> Exactly... but that is a big IF. If you want to take the technical
> trade, wait to see what happens after SPY hits that thick red resistance
> line. Until then, it could go either way (see the "bounces").


And AFTER that it could go either way.

You're entitled to your opinion but if you would deal with reality and and do some real research you would see that the future of the stock market over the next two decades is all but set in stone.

Research these topics:

1. Demographics.

2. Generational Dynamics & Patterns.

3. Long term trends of the stock market to see how the market simply does not keep doing the same things in terms of valuations for more than about two decades and it then tends to "correct" for the past era.

4. Economic data. All trends are down with only slight upticks in a few areas month-over-month, mainly based on seasonal variations. Take a good look at exports of asian countries.

5. Debt. It is still a HUGE problem only now it is the TAXPAYER'S problem.

6. The new trend of consumers to save instead of spend. This is a long-term adjustment that will last for decades as new generations see what we did to our economy.

7. P/E's and dividends.

www.decisionpoint.com/...
www2.standardandpoors....
online.wsj.com/mdc/pub...

Last but not least I suggest you take a good look at how dishonest our media, government and even the typical investor is right now. Take a good look at the three links above and notice that the Wall Stree Journal and Bloomberg TV are reporting an outright LIE for the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. I know they are lying because I have informed them of the error and they do nothing. Analysts and investors then repeat this lie about how the P/E ratio of the "stock market" is 10 or 15 when in fact it is 18 at best, using Q3 earnings and 60 using Q4 earnings which are 99% complete. The DJIA has a P/E of 26, two to three times what it should.

Until we quit lying to ourselves this market will only go down with the occasional bear market rally.

Has the Market Actually Bottomed?

Things haven't changed and in fact, we now know much more about future earnings and the likely future state of the economy. Given that fair value for the DJIA is around 6200 and the fact that we have been overvalued for some 2 decades, and given that the government has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the problem already (creating God knows what unintended consequences) I think it is safe to say that we will soon get back to the business of revaluing the stock market and that means moving steadily lower and then staying at lower valuations for the next decade or two.