Fredrik Arnold's Instablog Fredrik Arnold is my pen name. I recently retired from doing quality service analysis for John Hancock Long Term Care Insurance in Boston and moved to North Carolina. My fascination with capital preservation, fixed fractional trading, and trading systems keeps me blogging for Seeking Alpha. Most of my articles have focused on dividend yields as stock trading indicators. But there is more to come. Fredrik Arnold http://seekingalpha.com/author/fredrik-arnold/instablog Nine Dog Indices Gyrate To Net 7.59% To 33.85% Annually http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/748328-fredrik-arnold/968411-nine-dog-indices-gyrate-to-net-7-59-to-33-85-annually?source=feed 968411 This end of month installment refines and concludes results from a series of articles that compared relative strengths of nine stock indices by (1) yield and (2) dividend vs price gaps using projected annual dividends from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks in each index for. The articles in this series reported June & July results for: (1) Chuck Carnevale's Power 25 Index; (2) Super 29 Index; David Fish's vaunted (3) Champions, (4) Contenders, and (5) Challengers, plus a (6) Composite CCC Index; (7) Dividend AchieversTM 50; (8) Russell 50. All of it based on (9) Dogs of the Dow.

As chapters in the ongoing effort to respond to the question, "what dividend stocks are good, better, best, bad or ugly?" those articles also heeded Yale professor Robert Shiller's observation: "People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes." Hence the articles graphically depicted gyrations.

Dog Metrics Selected Ten in Each Index

Two key numbers determined the yields that ranked stocks in each index: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

All Together Now

Each graph below shows monthly points of comparison between annual projected dividends resulting from $10,000 invested as $1,000 each in the top ten high yield stocks (blue points) versus the total prices of one share of each of the ten stocks (green points) by index. Grouped together the graphs display six months of comparative gyrations of the nine indices described.

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Dogs Ranked by Dividend Dominance

The following graph shows annual dividends projected from $1000 invested in each of ten stocks with the top yields in nine indices. The chart plotted projected yields as of a specific purchase date each month since January. Generally, projected yields increased in the indices when average stock prices fell. However yield projections were subject to corporate fiscal considerations so yields also plunged when times got tough.

Annual Dividends Forecast from $1k Invested in Each of 10 Top Yielding Stocks in 9 Indices

(click to enlarge)

Relative yield strengths differentiated the indices graphed:

Dow Dogs showed the lowest dividends from $1000 invested in each of those ten top stocks with a erratic swing down 2.45% over six data points since January.

Dow and Carnevale Super 29 Index dividends behaved like a braided cord until April but thereafter separated with the Super 29 top ten showing a higher aggregate dividend from $1000 invested in each of their ten stocks.

Despite turbulence, the Super 29 dividend projected from $1000 invested in each of those top ten stocks fell within $1.10 of the January projection as of the most recent data point.

Large cap Russell 50 dividends dropped 8.93% since January to finish just $1.50 above the Super 29 dividend projection.

Dividends projected from $1k invested in Carnevale's Power 25 list of top ten dogs popped up 8.75% since January. This action moved the power 25 data points since April well above the Dow, Super 29, and Russell 50 chart lines.

Three indices grouped themselves toward the middle of the chart:

Divided Champion dividends from $1000 invested in the top ten stocks showed a 5.09% pop between January and July after sagging 2.65% into April.

Dividend Achiever dogs projected dividends jumped 11.52% in projected dividend between January and July.

Projected dividends from top ten Contender dogs however dropped 4.17% since January after rising 8% through March.

Two indices rose to the top of the chart as their dividends from $1000 invested in the top ten stocks created separation from the seven lower yielding indices: Dividend Challenger dogs swung up 7.43% since January. The CCCCombo collection arched up 10.65% for the period.

Relative Risk For Dogs by Index

A reader request to "add relative financial data on the companies selected" for an early article comparing indices only by annual yield projections has inspired a simple tool to gauge investment risk. The tool is best applied prior to the purchase of any 5 or 10 Dogs of the Index stocks at any point during the year. This information will continue to be reviewed monthly as one step toward Robert Schiller's admonishment to "make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes."

Divergence from Share Price Ranked Investor Risk by Index

The charts and accompanying graphs below show the June/July Divergence ranks of the nine indices for investment risk from high to low.

(click to enlarge)

Conclusion: Analyst Forecasts Reveal Eight Dogs Fit to Net 11.08% to 110.92% by August 2013

Top ten dogs for this index component list were graphed below to show relative strengths by price as of the first week in August, 2012 and those projected to August, 2013. Historic aggregate single share price of the ten highest yielding stocks created the numbers for 2012. Projections based on aggregate one year analyst mean target prices as reported by Yahoo Finance created the 2013 numbers for each index.

This became a graph of upside potential since all the analyst estimates showed positive price gains for each sector ranging from 4.23% for the Dividend Champion dogs to 27.52% for the ten CCCCombo dogs.

(click to enlarge)

Top Trades Per Analysts

The top net gaining dog trades one year from now were revealed by analysts in each of eight sectors. (The CCC Combo index was not included because it duplicated top picks from the three C indices.) The chart below is derived from analyst data reported by Yahoo Finance.

(click to enlarge)

Old Republic International (ORI) in the Champions index is projected to net a 110.92% price gain based on mean target price set by 1 analyst.

RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD) netting a 38.97% price gain in the Carnevale Power 25 index is determined by a mean target price set by 4 analysts.

Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KKPNY.pk) netting a 36.75% price gain in the Challenger index was based on a mean target price set by 1 analyst.

Vector Group (VGR) netting a 28.13% annual gain in the Contender index was based on mean target pricing set by 1 analyst.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) netting a 23.72% net gain in the Dow 30 Industrials index as of next August was based on a mean target price set by 29 analysts.

Diebold Inc. (DBD) netting a 21.95% net gain in the Carnevale Super 29 index next year was based on a mean target price set by 6 analysts.

Avon Products (AVP) netting a 20.13% net gain in the Dividend Achievers index annually was based on a mean target price set by 13 analysts;

ConocoPhillips (COP) netting a 11.08% net gain in the Russell 50 index next year was based on a mean target price set by 16 analysts.

Available Next Steps

As stated above, charts and graphs for this index revealed high yielding stocks whose prices increased (or whose dividends decreased) as candidates to be sold off once each year in order to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

At least three investor choices are clear:

(1) Do nothing. Keep checking these high yield opportunities for possible trades in the fourth quarter of the year or after the November elections.

(2) Use the dogs of the index strategy to select a portfolio of five or ten stocks from this index to buy now. Await the results from your investments in these lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and pray that the price of every stock you purchased climbs higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase). One year from now review these selections and sweep gains, reinvesting the seed money into new higher yielding stocks in the same index.

(3) Pick one or two of the above listed stocks as candidates to buy now then hold long term, all the while collecting interest or reinvesting the gains in additional shares through a dividend reinvestment plan.

Stay Tuned

Nine indices and their component stocks will have ongoing stories to tell. These graphs, charts, and lists of companies will be updated again for publication each month.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[INTC]], [[JNJ]], [[CVX]].

]]> Wed, 15 Aug 2012 15:22:21 -0400 This end of month installment refines and concludes results from a series of articles that compared relative strengths of nine stock indices by (1) yield and (2) dividend vs price gaps using projected annual dividends from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks in each index for. The articles in this series reported June & July results for: (1) Chuck Carnevale's Power 25 Index; (2) Super 29 Index; David Fish's vaunted (3) Champions, (4) Contenders, and (5) Challengers, plus a (6) Composite CCC Index; (7) Dividend AchieversTM 50; (8) Russell 50. All of it based on (9) Dogs of the Dow.

As chapters in the ongoing effort to respond to the question, "what dividend stocks are good, better, best, bad or ugly?" those articles also heeded Yale professor Robert Shiller's observation: "People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes." Hence the articles graphically depicted gyrations.

Dog Metrics Selected Ten in Each Index

Two key numbers determined the yields that ranked stocks in each index: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

All Together Now

Each graph below shows monthly points of comparison between annual projected dividends resulting from $10,000 invested as $1,000 each in the top ten high yield stocks (blue points) versus the total prices of one share of each of the ten stocks (green points) by index. Grouped together the graphs display six months of comparative gyrations of the nine indices described.

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Dogs Ranked by Dividend Dominance

The following graph shows annual dividends projected from $1000 invested in each of ten stocks with the top yields in nine indices. The chart plotted projected yields as of a specific purchase date each month since January. Generally, projected yields increased in the indices when average stock prices fell. However yield projections were subject to corporate fiscal considerations so yields also plunged when times got tough.

Annual Dividends Forecast from $1k Invested in Each of 10 Top Yielding Stocks in 9 Indices

(click to enlarge)

Relative yield strengths differentiated the indices graphed:

Dow Dogs showed the lowest dividends from $1000 invested in each of those ten top stocks with a erratic swing down 2.45% over six data points since January.

Dow and Carnevale Super 29 Index dividends behaved like a braided cord until April but thereafter separated with the Super 29 top ten showing a higher aggregate dividend from $1000 invested in each of their ten stocks.

Despite turbulence, the Super 29 dividend projected from $1000 invested in each of those top ten stocks fell within $1.10 of the January projection as of the most recent data point.

Large cap Russell 50 dividends dropped 8.93% since January to finish just $1.50 above the Super 29 dividend projection.

Dividends projected from $1k invested in Carnevale's Power 25 list of top ten dogs popped up 8.75% since January. This action moved the power 25 data points since April well above the Dow, Super 29, and Russell 50 chart lines.

Three indices grouped themselves toward the middle of the chart:

Divided Champion dividends from $1000 invested in the top ten stocks showed a 5.09% pop between January and July after sagging 2.65% into April.

Dividend Achiever dogs projected dividends jumped 11.52% in projected dividend between January and July.

Projected dividends from top ten Contender dogs however dropped 4.17% since January after rising 8% through March.

Two indices rose to the top of the chart as their dividends from $1000 invested in the top ten stocks created separation from the seven lower yielding indices: Dividend Challenger dogs swung up 7.43% since January. The CCCCombo collection arched up 10.65% for the period.

Relative Risk For Dogs by Index

A reader request to "add relative financial data on the companies selected" for an early article comparing indices only by annual yield projections has inspired a simple tool to gauge investment risk. The tool is best applied prior to the purchase of any 5 or 10 Dogs of the Index stocks at any point during the year. This information will continue to be reviewed monthly as one step toward Robert Schiller's admonishment to "make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes."

Divergence from Share Price Ranked Investor Risk by Index

The charts and accompanying graphs below show the June/July Divergence ranks of the nine indices for investment risk from high to low.

(click to enlarge)

Conclusion: Analyst Forecasts Reveal Eight Dogs Fit to Net 11.08% to 110.92% by August 2013

Top ten dogs for this index component list were graphed below to show relative strengths by price as of the first week in August, 2012 and those projected to August, 2013. Historic aggregate single share price of the ten highest yielding stocks created the numbers for 2012. Projections based on aggregate one year analyst mean target prices as reported by Yahoo Finance created the 2013 numbers for each index.

This became a graph of upside potential since all the analyst estimates showed positive price gains for each sector ranging from 4.23% for the Dividend Champion dogs to 27.52% for the ten CCCCombo dogs.

(click to enlarge)

Top Trades Per Analysts

The top net gaining dog trades one year from now were revealed by analysts in each of eight sectors. (The CCC Combo index was not included because it duplicated top picks from the three C indices.) The chart below is derived from analyst data reported by Yahoo Finance.

(click to enlarge)

Old Republic International (ORI) in the Champions index is projected to net a 110.92% price gain based on mean target price set by 1 analyst.

RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD) netting a 38.97% price gain in the Carnevale Power 25 index is determined by a mean target price set by 4 analysts.

Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KKPNY.pk) netting a 36.75% price gain in the Challenger index was based on a mean target price set by 1 analyst.

Vector Group (VGR) netting a 28.13% annual gain in the Contender index was based on mean target pricing set by 1 analyst.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) netting a 23.72% net gain in the Dow 30 Industrials index as of next August was based on a mean target price set by 29 analysts.

Diebold Inc. (DBD) netting a 21.95% net gain in the Carnevale Super 29 index next year was based on a mean target price set by 6 analysts.

Avon Products (AVP) netting a 20.13% net gain in the Dividend Achievers index annually was based on a mean target price set by 13 analysts;

ConocoPhillips (COP) netting a 11.08% net gain in the Russell 50 index next year was based on a mean target price set by 16 analysts.

Available Next Steps

As stated above, charts and graphs for this index revealed high yielding stocks whose prices increased (or whose dividends decreased) as candidates to be sold off once each year in order to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

At least three investor choices are clear:

(1) Do nothing. Keep checking these high yield opportunities for possible trades in the fourth quarter of the year or after the November elections.

(2) Use the dogs of the index strategy to select a portfolio of five or ten stocks from this index to buy now. Await the results from your investments in these lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and pray that the price of every stock you purchased climbs higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase). One year from now review these selections and sweep gains, reinvesting the seed money into new higher yielding stocks in the same index.

(3) Pick one or two of the above listed stocks as candidates to buy now then hold long term, all the while collecting interest or reinvesting the gains in additional shares through a dividend reinvestment plan.

Stay Tuned

Nine indices and their component stocks will have ongoing stories to tell. These graphs, charts, and lists of companies will be updated again for publication each month.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[INTC]], [[JNJ]], [[CVX]].

]]> avp cop dbd jpm kkpny.pk ori rrd vgr dividend-quick-picks-lists Top Market Cap Dogs Cast 17.6% Gains As Of July 2013 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/748328-fredrik-arnold/859841-top-market-cap-dogs-cast-17-6-gains-as-of-july-2013?source=feed 859841 Every day the Dogs of the Dow website updates a list of the "50 largest companies by market cap (available on major US stock exchanges)". The website defines market cap as "the total market value of the company's outstanding shares. To calculate a company's market cap, you simply take the current stock price and multiply it by the total number of shares outstanding."

Dogs of the Index Metrics Cull Out Current Bargains

For this article the July 13 list of 50 top market cap companies was re-ranked using the two key dog performance metrics: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically dividend dog investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index, sector, survey, or list to trade. They awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

Dogs of the index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains to reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

The top thirty stocks of the 50 top market cap equities listed below were ranked by yields calculated as of July 13 to determine the Top Market Cap Dividend Dogs. Bracketed numbers after the stock name indicate the 1-50 market cap rank earned.

(click to enlarge)

Market cap top ten stocks showing the biggest yields as of July 13 included equities representing five of nine market sectors. The top yielding stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two in the financial sector, ING Groep (IGK). The other financial was Fifth Third Bancorp (FITBP). The balance of the top ten included: two technology, Vodafone (VOD), and AT&T (T); four basic materials firms, Vale S.A. (VALE), Total (TOT), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B), and BP plc (BP); one consumer goods firm, British American Tobacco (BTI); one health care equity, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) representing the sectors.

Dividend vs. Price Results

Below relative strengths for the top ten Market Cap Dividend Dogs by yield was graphed as of July 13, 2012 and compared to those of the Dow. Five months of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for each month shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)

Conclusion: Top Market Cap Dogs Stay Neutral

A mostly bearish trend pushed the top ten Market Cap Dogs dividend vs. price performance from overbought to neutral between April and June. Since April aggregate single share price for the top ten declined 7.98% while projected dividends from $1k invested in each of those ten increased 12.81% for the period. This is a healthy sign as the gap between aggregate single share prices exceeding projected dividends from $1k invested in those ten equities has disappeared and dividends now exceed aggregate price.

Meanwhile, the Dow index moved back to near convergence as dividends from $1k invested in the top ten came to within $1 of their aggregate total single share prices in July.

As of July 13 Market Cap Dogs showed $175 or 43.64% more dividends (with equally bigger risk) at $150 or 37.4% higher aggregate single share price than the Dow top ten.

Conclusion Too: Analysts Forecast July 2013 Gains at 17.61%

Top ten dogs for the Top Market Cap list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of July 13, 2012 and those projected to July 13, 2013.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for 2012. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst mean target prices as reported by Yahoo Finance created the 2013 data points green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)

For the coming year Yahoo Finance projected a 9.72% lower dividend from $1k invested in each stock within this group while aggregate single share price for the ten was projected by analysts to increase by 8.73%. Probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo for 2013 were Vodafone netting $231.49, Vale S.A. netting $480.00, Total netting $341.25, GlaxoSmithKline netting $159.33, and BP netting $250.82 in the coming year. The resulting net gain from dividends and swept price gains was 17.61% from $10k invested according to analyst estimates.

Stay tuned also for Top Market Cap comparisons to other large cap lists including dividend champions. Look for semi-annual updates on how well or whether projected gains for 2013 hold.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[JNJ]], [[INTC]].

]]> Mon, 16 Jul 2012 19:16:58 -0400 Every day the Dogs of the Dow website updates a list of the "50 largest companies by market cap (available on major US stock exchanges)". The website defines market cap as "the total market value of the company's outstanding shares. To calculate a company's market cap, you simply take the current stock price and multiply it by the total number of shares outstanding."

Dogs of the Index Metrics Cull Out Current Bargains

For this article the July 13 list of 50 top market cap companies was re-ranked using the two key dog performance metrics: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically dividend dog investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index, sector, survey, or list to trade. They awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

Dogs of the index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains to reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

The top thirty stocks of the 50 top market cap equities listed below were ranked by yields calculated as of July 13 to determine the Top Market Cap Dividend Dogs. Bracketed numbers after the stock name indicate the 1-50 market cap rank earned.

(click to enlarge)

Market cap top ten stocks showing the biggest yields as of July 13 included equities representing five of nine market sectors. The top yielding stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two in the financial sector, ING Groep (IGK). The other financial was Fifth Third Bancorp (FITBP). The balance of the top ten included: two technology, Vodafone (VOD), and AT&T (T); four basic materials firms, Vale S.A. (VALE), Total (TOT), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B), and BP plc (BP); one consumer goods firm, British American Tobacco (BTI); one health care equity, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) representing the sectors.

Dividend vs. Price Results

Below relative strengths for the top ten Market Cap Dividend Dogs by yield was graphed as of July 13, 2012 and compared to those of the Dow. Five months of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for each month shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)

Conclusion: Top Market Cap Dogs Stay Neutral

A mostly bearish trend pushed the top ten Market Cap Dogs dividend vs. price performance from overbought to neutral between April and June. Since April aggregate single share price for the top ten declined 7.98% while projected dividends from $1k invested in each of those ten increased 12.81% for the period. This is a healthy sign as the gap between aggregate single share prices exceeding projected dividends from $1k invested in those ten equities has disappeared and dividends now exceed aggregate price.

Meanwhile, the Dow index moved back to near convergence as dividends from $1k invested in the top ten came to within $1 of their aggregate total single share prices in July.

As of July 13 Market Cap Dogs showed $175 or 43.64% more dividends (with equally bigger risk) at $150 or 37.4% higher aggregate single share price than the Dow top ten.

Conclusion Too: Analysts Forecast July 2013 Gains at 17.61%

Top ten dogs for the Top Market Cap list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of July 13, 2012 and those projected to July 13, 2013.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for 2012. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst mean target prices as reported by Yahoo Finance created the 2013 data points green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)

For the coming year Yahoo Finance projected a 9.72% lower dividend from $1k invested in each stock within this group while aggregate single share price for the ten was projected by analysts to increase by 8.73%. Probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo for 2013 were Vodafone netting $231.49, Vale S.A. netting $480.00, Total netting $341.25, GlaxoSmithKline netting $159.33, and BP netting $250.82 in the coming year. The resulting net gain from dividends and swept price gains was 17.61% from $10k invested according to analyst estimates.

Stay tuned also for Top Market Cap comparisons to other large cap lists including dividend champions. Look for semi-annual updates on how well or whether projected gains for 2013 hold.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[JNJ]], [[INTC]].

]]> igk vod vale tot bti t gsk rds.b bp Dividend Quick Picks and Lists 90 Top Dogs Pay Dividends In 9 Indices In May http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/748328-fredrik-arnold/785101-90-top-dogs-pay-dividends-in-9-indices-in-may?source=feed 785101 This end of month summary compared relative strengths of eight stock indexes by yield and dividend vs price gaps using projected annual dividends from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks in each index. Results for the Dow index were also presented as a baseline standard and the ninth index.

This was another chapter in the ongoing effort to respond to the question, "what dividend stocks are good, better, best, bad or ugly?" The effort also heeded Yale professor Robert Shiller's observation: "People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes." Hence this article graphically depicted the gyrations.

Previous summaries in January and February used Dogs of the Index methodology on five indices: (1) Chuck Carnevale's Power 25 Index, David Fish's vaunted (2) Champions, (3) Contenders, and (4) Challengers, plus a (5) Composite CCC Index. March added (6): Dividend AchieversTM 50. April added (7) Carnevale's Super 29 Index. May added (8) Russell 50. All of it was based on (9) Dogs of the Dow.

Dog Metrics Selected Ten in Each Index

Two key metrics determined the yields that ranked these index dog stocks: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically, investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one grouping to trade. They optimistically awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

This Dogs of the Index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how low yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

Indices Briefs

Top ten dogs for each index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price from January to May. Using five months of historic projected annual dividends from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks each month and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for each month shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

Carnevale Power 25 Index

Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published Our 25 Dividend Growth Stocks Are Dirt Cheap in November. He listed top 25 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) were available at current valuations; (2) were significantly below their historical norms; (3) remained profitable through the great recession of 2008 and 2009.

Carnevale's top ten Power 25 stocks paying the biggest dividends as of May 29 included firms representing six market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two in the service sector, RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD), and Sysco Corporation (SYY) in sixth place. The balance of the top ten Power 25 included: two consumer goods, Avon Products (AVP), and Procter & Gamble (PG); two basic materials, Alliance Resource (ARLP), and Chevron Corp. (CVX); one utility, Nextera Energy (NEE); two healthcare firms, Novartis AG (NVS), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); one financial, Aflac Inc.(AFL), representing market sectors. The full list of 25 stocks has five service, five healthcare, three consumer goods, one financial, three basic materials, five industrial, one utility, one technology and no conglomerates representing market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by only two of the top ten Power 25 dogs: Nextera Energy Inc. connected with a .2483% surge; Pepsico (PEP) popped 1.72%.

The Carnevale Power 25 collection of top ten dividend dogs by yield displayed March aggregate single share stock price for the top ten exceeding the total annual dividend returns from $1k invested in each of those stocks by over $125 or 29.28%.

In April the price over dividend gap retreated to just over $55 or 12.57% for this collection of low risk but overvalued power dogs.

May found the dividends back on the higher side of price by $18.94 or 3.9% which showed a healthier balance of between aggregate single share prices and projected dividends from $1k invested in each of those top ten stocks.

Carnevale's New Super 29 Index

April 2, 2012, Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published 29 Dividend Champions That Beat The Market, Inflation & 2 Recessions Since 2001. He listed top 29 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) consistently raised dividends for 37 years (or more); (2) were at or below fair market value in 2001; (3) outperformed the S&P 500 on a total return basis.

Carnevale's Super 29 top ten stocks showing the biggest dividend yields as of May 29 included firms representing five market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two consumer goods firms, Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG), Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) the other consumer goods firm was in seventh position. The balance of the top ten included: one financial firm, United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI); one in the service sector, Bowl America Class A (BWL.A); two basic materials firms, Nucor Corp.(NUE), and RPM International Inc. (RPM); four utilities, Consolidated Edison (ED), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), California Water Service (CWT), and Connecticut Water Service (CTWS). The full list of 29 stocks has four service, two healthcare, six consumer goods, two financial, three basic materials, six industrial goods, four utility, no technology, and one conglomerate representing eight of nine market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by only two of the top ten Power 25 dogs: Nextera Energy Inc. connected with a .2483% surge; Pepsico popped 1.72%.

The Carnevale Super 29 collection of top ten dividend yielders continued to display remarkable calm over the five months graphed. Overall dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten popped 4.83% from December 30 to May 29. Meanwhile aggregate single share stock price for these Carnevale Super 29 increased 5.45% for the period.

Champions Index

David Fish's 3/30/12 Champions list of companies paying increasing dividends for 25 consecutive years or more was sorted by yield as of May 31 to reveal the top thirty. Data for all four Fish indices is sourced from Mr. Fish's drip investing tools.

Ten Champion dogs that promised the biggest dividend yields in May included firms representing four market sectors. The top stock Pitney Bowes (PBI) was one of three firms in the consumer sector. The other two consumer goods top dogs were Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG), and Altria Group Inc. (MO). The balance of the top ten included: six financial, Old Republic International (ORI), Washington REIT (WRE), Mercury General Corp. (MCY), United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI), and HCP Inc. (HCP); one technology, AT&T Inc. (T); one service, Bowl America Class A (BWL.A), representing market sectors.

(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since April 27 were made by just two of the top ten Dividend Champion Dogs: AT&T Inc dialed up a 4.53% price gain; Altria Group Inc. ignited a .156% price gain.

The Champions top ten reliable dividend stocks showed a 4.14% ten share price drop over the past month while their dividends soared 5.68%.

Contenders Index

The Contenders list (from here) paid increasing dividends for 10 - 24 years. The top dividend contenders stocks listed below were ranked by yields calculated as of May 31.

Contender dogs in May lost Inergy (NRGY) the former leader of the pack when the firm sent cut a clear sell signal by cutting its dividend in half this quarter. The newly reconstituted top ten contenders included firms representing five of nine market sectors.

The new top dog, Vector Group Ltd. (VGR) was the only one from the consumer goods sector. The balance of the top ten included one utility, Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH); five basic materials firms, NuStar Energy LP (NS), Buckeye Partners LP (BPL), TC Pipelines LP (TCP), Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP), and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP); two financial firms, Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), and Universal Health Realty Trust (UHT); one technology firm, Communications Systems Inc. (JCS) representing market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves since April 27 were made by not one top ten dividend contender stock. They all tanked, led by their (former) leader as Inergy LP cut its dividend to throw itself out of contention.

This contenders collection of top ten dogs by yield in May showed dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten stocks decreased 3.9% as their aggregate single share prices sagged 9.33%.

Challengers Index

David Fish's Challengers list (from here) is distinguished as companies that have paid higher dividends for 5 to 9 straight years. Dividend challenger stocks listed below were ranked by yields calculated as of May 31.

Ten challenger dogs posting the biggest dividend yields in May included firms representing three of nine market sectors. The top stock Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) was one of three in the financial sector. The other financial firms in the top ten were: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT); Triangle Capital Corp. (TCAP). The balance of the top ten included one service, StoneMor Partners LP (STON), and six basic materials firms, Exterran Partners LP (EXLP); Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR); Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP); AmeriGas Partners LP (APU); Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP); Transmontaigne Partners LP (TLP), representing market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves since April 27 were made by only one top ten dividend challenger stock: Triangle Capital Corp recorded a .296% price gain.

This Challengers collection of stocks by yield showed a 7.7% pop in projected dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten stocks while their aggregate single share price also inclined 12.96% in May. A mixed message of bearish dividends accompanied by bullish price movement was heard.

CCC Combined Index

The combination of David Fish's lists (from here) were ranked by yields calculated as of May 31.

CCC combined index dogs projecting the biggest dividend yields in May included firms representing five of nine market sectors. April's top dog Inergy LP (NRGY) was disqualified in May when it cut its dividend payment by half. The reconstituted CCC combo top ten included: three financial firms, Dynex Capital Inc. DX), PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT), and Triangle Capital Corp. (TCAP); two consumer goods, Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI), and Vector Group Ltd. (VGR); three basic materials firms, Exterran Partners LP (EXLP), Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP), and Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR); one service, StoneMor Partners LP (STON); one utility, Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH), representing market sectors.

(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since March 26 were made by just one of the top ten ccc combo stocks: Triangle Capital Corp posted a .296% price gain.

The CCC group of top ten dividend stocks by projected yield in May showed annual dividends from $1000 invested in each of the ten stocks inclining 2.62% to again exceed the $1000 level. Aggregate single share prices rebounded 1.32% toward the $200 mark.

Dividend AchieversTM 50

Dividend AchieversTM 50 Index was chosen from here. The selected subset below was constituted from "the 50 US companies with the highest current dividend yield as of the last trading date in December." The selected list was then updated with price data as of 1/30; 2/27; 3/29; 4/27; 6/1/2012 from historical prices available on Yahoo Finance.

Dividend Achievers top ten stocks paying the biggest dividends as of June 1 included equities representing five market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was another one of four in the consumer goods sector, Pitney Bowes Inc (PBI), which replaced April's top dog, Vector Group LTD (VGR). The other two consumer goods firms were Avon Products Inc (AVP), and Leggett & Platt Inc (LEG). The balance of the top ten included: three financial, Old Republic International (ORI), Mercury General Corp (MCY), and Peoples United Financial (PBCT); one service, Meredith Corp (MDP); one utility, PPL Corporation (PPL); one technology, AT&T Inc (T) representing the sectors.

(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since April were made by just two of the top ten April Dividend Achiever dogs: AT&T dialed up a 3.7% gain; PPL Corporation generated a .549% price surge.

This Dividend Achievers collection of top ten dividend payers displayed bearish action for the five months surveyed. Dividends from $1k invested in the top ten rose 9.87% to stay above aggregate total single share prices which dropped 5.83% between January and May.

This past month, however, the Achiever top ten showed intensified bearish action as projected annual dividends from $1k invested in each stock soared 8.47% while the aggregate single share price of those stocks plummeted 10.86%. May aggregate single share stock price for the top ten Achiever dogs exceeded the total annual dividend returns from $1k invested in each of those stocks by over $448 or 204.8%.

Dow 30 Index

CME Group, publisher if this index, states, "The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index of 30 blue-chip U.S. companies representing nine economic sectors including financial service, technology, retail, entertainment and consumer goods."

Two technology firms showing the biggest dividend yields on the Dow as of June 1 were: (1) AT&T (T); (2) Verizon (VZ). The rest of the Dow 10 dogs include three healthcare, Merck & Company (MRK), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); one industrial, General Electric (GE); one financial, JPMorgan Chase (JPM); two basic materials, Chevron (CVX), and Dupont (DD); one consumer goods firm, Procter & Gamble (PG), representing six of nine market sectors. Thirty Dow stocks include seven technology companies, three consumer goods, four financial, four services, four basic materials, two industrial, three health care, no utilities, and three conglomerates.

Bullish upward price moves since April 17 were made by only two of the top ten Dow 30 dogs: AT&T Inc. dialed up a 10.24% share price increase; Verizon Communications connected with a 8.95% price bump.

Dow 30 Index dogs reflected bear market symptoms since February as projected dividend totals for $1000 invested in the top ten increased 3.833% while their aggregate total single share prices dropped 1.27%.

December 30th 2011 marked the last time projected dividends from $1000 in each of the top ten Dow dogs exceeded the aggregated single share price of those ten. March 13 aggregate price came within $8 over dividends. Until dividends exceed price by this standard the Dow will show as overbought. A great bearish drop in aggregate single share price is accompanied by a big increase in projected dividends from $1k invested in the top ten Dow dogs is long overdue.

All Together Now

Each graph below shows monthly points of comparison between annual projected dividends resulting from $10,000 invested as $1,000 each in the top ten high yield stocks (blue points) versus the total prices of one share of each of the ten stocks (green points) by index. Grouped together the graphs display four months of comparative gyrations of the nine indices described.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Dog Teams Vie for Dividend Dominance

The following graph shows annual dividends projected from $1000 invested in each of ten stocks with the top yields in eight indices.

Annual Dividends Forecast from $1k Invested in each of 10 Top Yielding Stocks in 8 Indices & Dow

(click to enlarge)

The chart plotted projected yields as of a specific purchase date each month since January. Only two of the nine indices showed dividends decreasing in bull market fashion the past month. Just the Contenders, and Dow indices showed those decreases in dividends.

Conclusion

Projected dividend yield amounts from these eight indices and the Dow over the past four months displayed nine distinct yield levels.

These indices were ranked for risk as of May 29, 2012 in the following manner: (1) Add the single share prices of the top ten stocks on an index list. Then, (2) add the total annual dividend amounts projected from $1000 invested in each of those ten stocks. Finally, (3) compare the resulting two numbers. Lesser divergence between dividend amounts above single share prices revealed the indices with lesser risk. Overvalued stock indices showed negative divergence.

By that baseline standard of divergence, these eight indices and the Dow rank themselves by risk as follows:

These eight indices and the Dow component stocks have ongoing stories to tell. These graphs and lists will be updated again for publication following a review of each index in late July and thereafter.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[JNJ]], [[CVX]].

]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2012 06:56:30 -0400 This end of month summary compared relative strengths of eight stock indexes by yield and dividend vs price gaps using projected annual dividends from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks in each index. Results for the Dow index were also presented as a baseline standard and the ninth index.

This was another chapter in the ongoing effort to respond to the question, "what dividend stocks are good, better, best, bad or ugly?" The effort also heeded Yale professor Robert Shiller's observation: "People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes." Hence this article graphically depicted the gyrations.

Previous summaries in January and February used Dogs of the Index methodology on five indices: (1) Chuck Carnevale's Power 25 Index, David Fish's vaunted (2) Champions, (3) Contenders, and (4) Challengers, plus a (5) Composite CCC Index. March added (6): Dividend AchieversTM 50. April added (7) Carnevale's Super 29 Index. May added (8) Russell 50. All of it was based on (9) Dogs of the Dow.

Dog Metrics Selected Ten in Each Index

Two key metrics determined the yields that ranked these index dog stocks: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically, investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one grouping to trade. They optimistically awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

This Dogs of the Index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how low yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

Indices Briefs

Top ten dogs for each index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price from January to May. Using five months of historic projected annual dividends from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks each month and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for each month shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

Carnevale Power 25 Index

Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published Our 25 Dividend Growth Stocks Are Dirt Cheap in November. He listed top 25 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) were available at current valuations; (2) were significantly below their historical norms; (3) remained profitable through the great recession of 2008 and 2009.

Carnevale's top ten Power 25 stocks paying the biggest dividends as of May 29 included firms representing six market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two in the service sector, RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD), and Sysco Corporation (SYY) in sixth place. The balance of the top ten Power 25 included: two consumer goods, Avon Products (AVP), and Procter & Gamble (PG); two basic materials, Alliance Resource (ARLP), and Chevron Corp. (CVX); one utility, Nextera Energy (NEE); two healthcare firms, Novartis AG (NVS), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); one financial, Aflac Inc.(AFL), representing market sectors. The full list of 25 stocks has five service, five healthcare, three consumer goods, one financial, three basic materials, five industrial, one utility, one technology and no conglomerates representing market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by only two of the top ten Power 25 dogs: Nextera Energy Inc. connected with a .2483% surge; Pepsico (PEP) popped 1.72%.

The Carnevale Power 25 collection of top ten dividend dogs by yield displayed March aggregate single share stock price for the top ten exceeding the total annual dividend returns from $1k invested in each of those stocks by over $125 or 29.28%.

In April the price over dividend gap retreated to just over $55 or 12.57% for this collection of low risk but overvalued power dogs.

May found the dividends back on the higher side of price by $18.94 or 3.9% which showed a healthier balance of between aggregate single share prices and projected dividends from $1k invested in each of those top ten stocks.

Carnevale's New Super 29 Index

April 2, 2012, Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published 29 Dividend Champions That Beat The Market, Inflation & 2 Recessions Since 2001. He listed top 29 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) consistently raised dividends for 37 years (or more); (2) were at or below fair market value in 2001; (3) outperformed the S&P 500 on a total return basis.

Carnevale's Super 29 top ten stocks showing the biggest dividend yields as of May 29 included firms representing five market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two consumer goods firms, Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG), Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) the other consumer goods firm was in seventh position. The balance of the top ten included: one financial firm, United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI); one in the service sector, Bowl America Class A (BWL.A); two basic materials firms, Nucor Corp.(NUE), and RPM International Inc. (RPM); four utilities, Consolidated Edison (ED), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), California Water Service (CWT), and Connecticut Water Service (CTWS). The full list of 29 stocks has four service, two healthcare, six consumer goods, two financial, three basic materials, six industrial goods, four utility, no technology, and one conglomerate representing eight of nine market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by only two of the top ten Power 25 dogs: Nextera Energy Inc. connected with a .2483% surge; Pepsico popped 1.72%.

The Carnevale Super 29 collection of top ten dividend yielders continued to display remarkable calm over the five months graphed. Overall dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten popped 4.83% from December 30 to May 29. Meanwhile aggregate single share stock price for these Carnevale Super 29 increased 5.45% for the period.

Champions Index

David Fish's 3/30/12 Champions list of companies paying increasing dividends for 25 consecutive years or more was sorted by yield as of May 31 to reveal the top thirty. Data for all four Fish indices is sourced from Mr. Fish's drip investing tools.

Ten Champion dogs that promised the biggest dividend yields in May included firms representing four market sectors. The top stock Pitney Bowes (PBI) was one of three firms in the consumer sector. The other two consumer goods top dogs were Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG), and Altria Group Inc. (MO). The balance of the top ten included: six financial, Old Republic International (ORI), Washington REIT (WRE), Mercury General Corp. (MCY), United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI), and HCP Inc. (HCP); one technology, AT&T Inc. (T); one service, Bowl America Class A (BWL.A), representing market sectors.

(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since April 27 were made by just two of the top ten Dividend Champion Dogs: AT&T Inc dialed up a 4.53% price gain; Altria Group Inc. ignited a .156% price gain.

The Champions top ten reliable dividend stocks showed a 4.14% ten share price drop over the past month while their dividends soared 5.68%.

Contenders Index

The Contenders list (from here) paid increasing dividends for 10 - 24 years. The top dividend contenders stocks listed below were ranked by yields calculated as of May 31.

Contender dogs in May lost Inergy (NRGY) the former leader of the pack when the firm sent cut a clear sell signal by cutting its dividend in half this quarter. The newly reconstituted top ten contenders included firms representing five of nine market sectors.

The new top dog, Vector Group Ltd. (VGR) was the only one from the consumer goods sector. The balance of the top ten included one utility, Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH); five basic materials firms, NuStar Energy LP (NS), Buckeye Partners LP (BPL), TC Pipelines LP (TCP), Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP), and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP); two financial firms, Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), and Universal Health Realty Trust (UHT); one technology firm, Communications Systems Inc. (JCS) representing market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves since April 27 were made by not one top ten dividend contender stock. They all tanked, led by their (former) leader as Inergy LP cut its dividend to throw itself out of contention.

This contenders collection of top ten dogs by yield in May showed dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten stocks decreased 3.9% as their aggregate single share prices sagged 9.33%.

Challengers Index

David Fish's Challengers list (from here) is distinguished as companies that have paid higher dividends for 5 to 9 straight years. Dividend challenger stocks listed below were ranked by yields calculated as of May 31.

Ten challenger dogs posting the biggest dividend yields in May included firms representing three of nine market sectors. The top stock Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) was one of three in the financial sector. The other financial firms in the top ten were: PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT); Triangle Capital Corp. (TCAP). The balance of the top ten included one service, StoneMor Partners LP (STON), and six basic materials firms, Exterran Partners LP (EXLP); Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR); Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP); AmeriGas Partners LP (APU); Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP); Transmontaigne Partners LP (TLP), representing market sectors.

Bullish upward price moves since April 27 were made by only one top ten dividend challenger stock: Triangle Capital Corp recorded a .296% price gain.

This Challengers collection of stocks by yield showed a 7.7% pop in projected dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten stocks while their aggregate single share price also inclined 12.96% in May. A mixed message of bearish dividends accompanied by bullish price movement was heard.

CCC Combined Index

The combination of David Fish's lists (from here) were ranked by yields calculated as of May 31.

CCC combined index dogs projecting the biggest dividend yields in May included firms representing five of nine market sectors. April's top dog Inergy LP (NRGY) was disqualified in May when it cut its dividend payment by half. The reconstituted CCC combo top ten included: three financial firms, Dynex Capital Inc. DX), PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT), and Triangle Capital Corp. (TCAP); two consumer goods, Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI), and Vector Group Ltd. (VGR); three basic materials firms, Exterran Partners LP (EXLP), Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP), and Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR); one service, StoneMor Partners LP (STON); one utility, Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH), representing market sectors.

(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since March 26 were made by just one of the top ten ccc combo stocks: Triangle Capital Corp posted a .296% price gain.

The CCC group of top ten dividend stocks by projected yield in May showed annual dividends from $1000 invested in each of the ten stocks inclining 2.62% to again exceed the $1000 level. Aggregate single share prices rebounded 1.32% toward the $200 mark.

Dividend AchieversTM 50

Dividend AchieversTM 50 Index was chosen from here. The selected subset below was constituted from "the 50 US companies with the highest current dividend yield as of the last trading date in December." The selected list was then updated with price data as of 1/30; 2/27; 3/29; 4/27; 6/1/2012 from historical prices available on Yahoo Finance.

Dividend Achievers top ten stocks paying the biggest dividends as of June 1 included equities representing five market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was another one of four in the consumer goods sector, Pitney Bowes Inc (PBI), which replaced April's top dog, Vector Group LTD (VGR). The other two consumer goods firms were Avon Products Inc (AVP), and Leggett & Platt Inc (LEG). The balance of the top ten included: three financial, Old Republic International (ORI), Mercury General Corp (MCY), and Peoples United Financial (PBCT); one service, Meredith Corp (MDP); one utility, PPL Corporation (PPL); one technology, AT&T Inc (T) representing the sectors.

(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since April were made by just two of the top ten April Dividend Achiever dogs: AT&T dialed up a 3.7% gain; PPL Corporation generated a .549% price surge.

This Dividend Achievers collection of top ten dividend payers displayed bearish action for the five months surveyed. Dividends from $1k invested in the top ten rose 9.87% to stay above aggregate total single share prices which dropped 5.83% between January and May.

This past month, however, the Achiever top ten showed intensified bearish action as projected annual dividends from $1k invested in each stock soared 8.47% while the aggregate single share price of those stocks plummeted 10.86%. May aggregate single share stock price for the top ten Achiever dogs exceeded the total annual dividend returns from $1k invested in each of those stocks by over $448 or 204.8%.

Dow 30 Index

CME Group, publisher if this index, states, "The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index of 30 blue-chip U.S. companies representing nine economic sectors including financial service, technology, retail, entertainment and consumer goods."

Two technology firms showing the biggest dividend yields on the Dow as of June 1 were: (1) AT&T (T); (2) Verizon (VZ). The rest of the Dow 10 dogs include three healthcare, Merck & Company (MRK), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); one industrial, General Electric (GE); one financial, JPMorgan Chase (JPM); two basic materials, Chevron (CVX), and Dupont (DD); one consumer goods firm, Procter & Gamble (PG), representing six of nine market sectors. Thirty Dow stocks include seven technology companies, three consumer goods, four financial, four services, four basic materials, two industrial, three health care, no utilities, and three conglomerates.

Bullish upward price moves since April 17 were made by only two of the top ten Dow 30 dogs: AT&T Inc. dialed up a 10.24% share price increase; Verizon Communications connected with a 8.95% price bump.

Dow 30 Index dogs reflected bear market symptoms since February as projected dividend totals for $1000 invested in the top ten increased 3.833% while their aggregate total single share prices dropped 1.27%.

December 30th 2011 marked the last time projected dividends from $1000 in each of the top ten Dow dogs exceeded the aggregated single share price of those ten. March 13 aggregate price came within $8 over dividends. Until dividends exceed price by this standard the Dow will show as overbought. A great bearish drop in aggregate single share price is accompanied by a big increase in projected dividends from $1k invested in the top ten Dow dogs is long overdue.

All Together Now

Each graph below shows monthly points of comparison between annual projected dividends resulting from $10,000 invested as $1,000 each in the top ten high yield stocks (blue points) versus the total prices of one share of each of the ten stocks (green points) by index. Grouped together the graphs display four months of comparative gyrations of the nine indices described.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Dog Teams Vie for Dividend Dominance

The following graph shows annual dividends projected from $1000 invested in each of ten stocks with the top yields in eight indices.

Annual Dividends Forecast from $1k Invested in each of 10 Top Yielding Stocks in 8 Indices & Dow

(click to enlarge)

The chart plotted projected yields as of a specific purchase date each month since January. Only two of the nine indices showed dividends decreasing in bull market fashion the past month. Just the Contenders, and Dow indices showed those decreases in dividends.

Conclusion

Projected dividend yield amounts from these eight indices and the Dow over the past four months displayed nine distinct yield levels.

These indices were ranked for risk as of May 29, 2012 in the following manner: (1) Add the single share prices of the top ten stocks on an index list. Then, (2) add the total annual dividend amounts projected from $1000 invested in each of those ten stocks. Finally, (3) compare the resulting two numbers. Lesser divergence between dividend amounts above single share prices revealed the indices with lesser risk. Overvalued stock indices showed negative divergence.

By that baseline standard of divergence, these eight indices and the Dow rank themselves by risk as follows:

These eight indices and the Dow component stocks have ongoing stories to tell. These graphs and lists will be updated again for publication following a review of each index in late July and thereafter.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[JNJ]], [[CVX]].

]]> afl apu arlp avp bpl bwl.a bwp ctws cvx cwt dd dx ed exlp ge hcp jcs jnj jpm kmp leg mcy mdp mo mrk nee nrgy nrp ns nue nvs nwn ohi ori pbct pbi pep pfe pg pnnt ppl rpm rrd sph ston syy t tcap tcp tlp ubsi uht vgr vnr vz wre dividend-quick-picks-lists Carnevale's 25 Power And 29 Super Dogs Top Dow In May http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/748328-fredrik-arnold/766931-carnevale-s-25-power-and-29-super-dogs-top-dow-in-may?source=feed 766931 Talk about your smack down! Here's how the contestants stack up:

First, November 23, 2011, Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published Our 25 Dividend Growth Stocks Are Dirt Cheap. There he listed top 25 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) were available at current valuations; (2) were significantly below their historical norms; (3) remained profitable through the great recession of 2008 and 2009.

This portfolio of companies he said "offers a three-pronged opportunity for above-average future total returns at below-average risk. We expect that each company will benefit in the future from a potential expansion in their PE ratios coupled with future earnings growth and finally followed by dividend increases offering a return kicker." That article ranked these stocks by 5 year estimated total returns ranging from a high of 38.2% down to 10.8%.

In this article these are known as the Carnevale Power 25 stocks.

Second, April 2, 2012, Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published 29 Dividend Champions That Beat The Market, Inflation & 2 Recessions Since 2001. He listed top 29 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) consistently raised dividends for 37 years (or more); (2) were at or below fair market value in 2001; (3) outperformed the S&P 500 on a total return basis.

Mr. Carnevale's April 2 article was a follow-up to an earlier article on March 28, that was stimulated by commentary on an article on March 16 by David Van Knapp titled Has Dividend Growth Kept Up With Inflation? He noted that culling companies overvalued in 2001 eliminated many of his personally biased favorites. His April 2 article was "offered as an in-depth look at each of these select Dividend Champions and how they all produced different results based on their own specific operating histories".

In this article these are known as the Carnevale Super 29 stocks.

Dogs of the Index Metrics Cull Out Current Bargains

Given the Carnevale Power 25 index, and the Carnevale Super 29 index lists this article used two key numbers as of May 29 to rank his stocks: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically Investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index or sector to trade. They awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

Dogs of the Index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains to reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

The Carnevale Power 25 and Super 29 lists below were ranked by yields based on estimated annual dividends to reveal the dogs therein.

Since Dogs of the Index system was invented as a tool to evaluate the Dow index, the Dow is use as a standard of comparison for our two Carnevale contenders.

Below both lists are ranked by yield calculated as of May 29.

The Carnevale Power 25 for May

For the Power 25 list Numbers after the company names in brackets [] indicate Mr. Carnevale's ranking for each stock by total estimated returns.

Carnevale's top ten Power 25 stocks paying the biggest dividends as of May 29 included firms representing six market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two in the service sector, RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD), and Sysco Corporation (SYY) in sixth place. The balance of the top ten Power 25 included: two consumer goods, Avon Products (AVP), and Procter & Gamble (PG); two basic materials, Alliance Resource (ARLP), and Chevron Corp. (CVX); one utility, Nextera Energy (NEE); two healthcare firms, Novartis AG (NVS), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); one financial, Aflac Inc.(AFL), representing market sectors. The full list of 25 stocks has five service, five healthcare, three consumer goods, one financial, three basic materials, five industrial, one utility, one technology and no conglomerates representing market sectors.

The Carnevale Super 29 for May

Numbers after the Super 29 company names in brackets [] indicate Mr. Carnevale's ranking for each stock in order of highest annualized performance to lowest, which was a total return number that included dividends but not reinvested.

Carnevale's Super 29 top ten stocks showing the biggest dividend yields as of May 29 included firms representing five market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two consumer goods firms, Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG), Procter & Gamble Co. the other consumer goods firm was in seventh position. The balance of the top ten included: one financial firm, United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI); one in the service sector, Bowl America Class A (BWL.A); two basic materials firms, Nucor Corp.(NUE), and RPM International Inc. (RPM); four utilities, Consolidated Edison (ED), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), California Water Service (CWT), and Connecticut Water Service (CTWS). The full list of 29 stocks has four service, two healthcare, six consumer goods, two financial, three basic materials, six industrial goods, four utility, no technology, and one conglomerate representing eight of nine market sectors.

Up and Down Moves for Carnevale 25 Power Dogs

Just one firm, RR Donnelly, has stayed at the top of this list by yield for the four months surveyed.

Color code shows: (Yellow) firms listed in first position at least once between February and May 2012; (Cyan Blue) firms listed in tenth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Magenta) firms listed in fifteenth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Green) firms listed in twenty fifth position at least once between February and May 2012. Duplicates are depicted in color for highest ranking attained.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by only two of the top ten Power 25 dogs: Nextera Energy Inc. connected with a .2483% surge; Pepsico (PEP) popped 1.72%.

Bearish downward price moves for the same period hit the rest of the top ten Carnevale Power 25 dogs: top dog RR Donnelley & Sons price sagged 18.08%; Alliance Resource showed a 9.43% price decline; Novartis dropped 5.95% in price; Avon Products applied a 28% price drop; Johnson & Johnson wrapped up a 4.59% swoon; Abbott Labs (ABT) fell 2.17% in price and out of the top ten; Sysco delivered a 4.74% price drop; Proctor & Gamble packaged a 7.96% price decline; Chevron Corp leaped back into the top ten as it's share price dropped 9.24%; Aflac Inc. price plunged 14.15% to propel it into the doggie ten.

Up and Down Moves for Carnevale Super 29 Dogs

Two firms, Bowl America Class A, and Leggett & Platt Inc. traded places at the top of this list by yield for the periods surveyed since February 27.

Color code shows: (Yellow) firms listed in first position at least once between February and May 2012; (Cyan Blue) firms listed in tenth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Magenta) firms listed in twentieth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Green) firms listed in twenty ninth position at least once between February and May 2012. Duplicates (if any) are depicted in color for highest ranking attained.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by two utilities in the top ten Super 29 dogs: Consolidated Edison connected with a 2.15% gain; Northwest Natural Gas popped a 1.54% gain.

Bearish downward price moves for the same period hit the rest of the top ten Carnevale Super 29 dogs: Leggett & Platt Inc. made a 13.98% price shaving; Bowl America Class A price guttered 1.06%; United Bankshares Inc. deposited a 9.9% price decline; Nucor Corp. milled a 9.07% price drop; Procter & Gamble Co. packaged a price plunge of 7.98%; California Water Service oozed 3.39%; Conn. Water Service flushed out a 3.7% price plunge; RPM International Inc. extracted a 5.75% price drop for the month.

Dividend vs. Price Results

Below are graphs of relative strengths for the top ten Carnevale Power 25 index and Carnevale Super 29 index stocks by yield as of May 29, 2012 compared to those of the Dow index. Five months of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks creates the data points for each month shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Conclusion: Carnevale Power 25 Dog Price vs. Dividend Pull Out of Overbought State Unlike Dow

The Carnevale Power 25 collection of top ten dividend dogs by yield displayed aggregate single share stock price for the top ten Carnevale dogs in March exceeding the total annual dividend returns from $1k invested in each of those stocks by over $125 or 29.28%. In April the price over dividend gap retreated to just over $55 or 12.57% for this collection of low risk but overvalued power dogs.

Now the dividends are back on the higher side of price by $18.94 or 3.9% showing a healthier balance of between aggregate single share prices and projected dividends from $1k invested in each of those top ten stocks.

Compared to the Dow in May the Power 25 Dogs showed 11.14% higher aggregate single share price with 24.93% higher projected annual dividends than the dogs of the Dow.

Conclusion: Carnevale Super 29 Dogs Keep Prices Down Throwing More Dividends at Lower Price Than Dow

The Carnevale Super 29 collection of top ten dividend dogs continued to display remarkable calm over the five months graphed. Overall dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten popped 4.83% from December 30 to May 29. Meanwhile aggregate single share stock price for these Carnevale Super 29 increased 5.45% for the period.

Compared to the Dow this Super 29 index showed $142 or 30% lower aggregate share price and also $13.75 or 3.41% more annual dividends projected from $1k invested in each of the top ten dogs in May.

Stay Tuned

Each month a summary concludes this series of articles by showing results of yield and price for these Carnevale Power 25 and Carnevale Super 29 stocks compared to David Fish's Champions, Contenders, Challengers, and Composite lists, along with the Dow. Stay tuned and follow these intrepid conservative dividend dogs to learn if they grow or no.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[JNJ]], [[INTC]], [[CVX]].

]]> Thu, 21 Jun 2012 07:48:23 -0400 Talk about your smack down! Here's how the contestants stack up:

First, November 23, 2011, Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published Our 25 Dividend Growth Stocks Are Dirt Cheap. There he listed top 25 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) were available at current valuations; (2) were significantly below their historical norms; (3) remained profitable through the great recession of 2008 and 2009.

This portfolio of companies he said "offers a three-pronged opportunity for above-average future total returns at below-average risk. We expect that each company will benefit in the future from a potential expansion in their PE ratios coupled with future earnings growth and finally followed by dividend increases offering a return kicker." That article ranked these stocks by 5 year estimated total returns ranging from a high of 38.2% down to 10.8%.

In this article these are known as the Carnevale Power 25 stocks.

Second, April 2, 2012, Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published 29 Dividend Champions That Beat The Market, Inflation & 2 Recessions Since 2001. He listed top 29 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) consistently raised dividends for 37 years (or more); (2) were at or below fair market value in 2001; (3) outperformed the S&P 500 on a total return basis.

Mr. Carnevale's April 2 article was a follow-up to an earlier article on March 28, that was stimulated by commentary on an article on March 16 by David Van Knapp titled Has Dividend Growth Kept Up With Inflation? He noted that culling companies overvalued in 2001 eliminated many of his personally biased favorites. His April 2 article was "offered as an in-depth look at each of these select Dividend Champions and how they all produced different results based on their own specific operating histories".

In this article these are known as the Carnevale Super 29 stocks.

Dogs of the Index Metrics Cull Out Current Bargains

Given the Carnevale Power 25 index, and the Carnevale Super 29 index lists this article used two key numbers as of May 29 to rank his stocks: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically Investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index or sector to trade. They awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

Dogs of the Index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains to reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

The Carnevale Power 25 and Super 29 lists below were ranked by yields based on estimated annual dividends to reveal the dogs therein.

Since Dogs of the Index system was invented as a tool to evaluate the Dow index, the Dow is use as a standard of comparison for our two Carnevale contenders.

Below both lists are ranked by yield calculated as of May 29.

The Carnevale Power 25 for May

For the Power 25 list Numbers after the company names in brackets [] indicate Mr. Carnevale's ranking for each stock by total estimated returns.

Carnevale's top ten Power 25 stocks paying the biggest dividends as of May 29 included firms representing six market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two in the service sector, RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD), and Sysco Corporation (SYY) in sixth place. The balance of the top ten Power 25 included: two consumer goods, Avon Products (AVP), and Procter & Gamble (PG); two basic materials, Alliance Resource (ARLP), and Chevron Corp. (CVX); one utility, Nextera Energy (NEE); two healthcare firms, Novartis AG (NVS), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); one financial, Aflac Inc.(AFL), representing market sectors. The full list of 25 stocks has five service, five healthcare, three consumer goods, one financial, three basic materials, five industrial, one utility, one technology and no conglomerates representing market sectors.

The Carnevale Super 29 for May

Numbers after the Super 29 company names in brackets [] indicate Mr. Carnevale's ranking for each stock in order of highest annualized performance to lowest, which was a total return number that included dividends but not reinvested.

Carnevale's Super 29 top ten stocks showing the biggest dividend yields as of May 29 included firms representing five market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two consumer goods firms, Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG), Procter & Gamble Co. the other consumer goods firm was in seventh position. The balance of the top ten included: one financial firm, United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI); one in the service sector, Bowl America Class A (BWL.A); two basic materials firms, Nucor Corp.(NUE), and RPM International Inc. (RPM); four utilities, Consolidated Edison (ED), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), California Water Service (CWT), and Connecticut Water Service (CTWS). The full list of 29 stocks has four service, two healthcare, six consumer goods, two financial, three basic materials, six industrial goods, four utility, no technology, and one conglomerate representing eight of nine market sectors.

Up and Down Moves for Carnevale 25 Power Dogs

Just one firm, RR Donnelly, has stayed at the top of this list by yield for the four months surveyed.

Color code shows: (Yellow) firms listed in first position at least once between February and May 2012; (Cyan Blue) firms listed in tenth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Magenta) firms listed in fifteenth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Green) firms listed in twenty fifth position at least once between February and May 2012. Duplicates are depicted in color for highest ranking attained.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by only two of the top ten Power 25 dogs: Nextera Energy Inc. connected with a .2483% surge; Pepsico (PEP) popped 1.72%.

Bearish downward price moves for the same period hit the rest of the top ten Carnevale Power 25 dogs: top dog RR Donnelley & Sons price sagged 18.08%; Alliance Resource showed a 9.43% price decline; Novartis dropped 5.95% in price; Avon Products applied a 28% price drop; Johnson & Johnson wrapped up a 4.59% swoon; Abbott Labs (ABT) fell 2.17% in price and out of the top ten; Sysco delivered a 4.74% price drop; Proctor & Gamble packaged a 7.96% price decline; Chevron Corp leaped back into the top ten as it's share price dropped 9.24%; Aflac Inc. price plunged 14.15% to propel it into the doggie ten.

Up and Down Moves for Carnevale Super 29 Dogs

Two firms, Bowl America Class A, and Leggett & Platt Inc. traded places at the top of this list by yield for the periods surveyed since February 27.

Color code shows: (Yellow) firms listed in first position at least once between February and May 2012; (Cyan Blue) firms listed in tenth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Magenta) firms listed in twentieth position at least once between February and May 2012; (Green) firms listed in twenty ninth position at least once between February and May 2012. Duplicates (if any) are depicted in color for highest ranking attained.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves in the past month (since April 26) were made by two utilities in the top ten Super 29 dogs: Consolidated Edison connected with a 2.15% gain; Northwest Natural Gas popped a 1.54% gain.

Bearish downward price moves for the same period hit the rest of the top ten Carnevale Super 29 dogs: Leggett & Platt Inc. made a 13.98% price shaving; Bowl America Class A price guttered 1.06%; United Bankshares Inc. deposited a 9.9% price decline; Nucor Corp. milled a 9.07% price drop; Procter & Gamble Co. packaged a price plunge of 7.98%; California Water Service oozed 3.39%; Conn. Water Service flushed out a 3.7% price plunge; RPM International Inc. extracted a 5.75% price drop for the month.

Dividend vs. Price Results

Below are graphs of relative strengths for the top ten Carnevale Power 25 index and Carnevale Super 29 index stocks by yield as of May 29, 2012 compared to those of the Dow index. Five months of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks creates the data points for each month shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Conclusion: Carnevale Power 25 Dog Price vs. Dividend Pull Out of Overbought State Unlike Dow

The Carnevale Power 25 collection of top ten dividend dogs by yield displayed aggregate single share stock price for the top ten Carnevale dogs in March exceeding the total annual dividend returns from $1k invested in each of those stocks by over $125 or 29.28%. In April the price over dividend gap retreated to just over $55 or 12.57% for this collection of low risk but overvalued power dogs.

Now the dividends are back on the higher side of price by $18.94 or 3.9% showing a healthier balance of between aggregate single share prices and projected dividends from $1k invested in each of those top ten stocks.

Compared to the Dow in May the Power 25 Dogs showed 11.14% higher aggregate single share price with 24.93% higher projected annual dividends than the dogs of the Dow.

Conclusion: Carnevale Super 29 Dogs Keep Prices Down Throwing More Dividends at Lower Price Than Dow

The Carnevale Super 29 collection of top ten dividend dogs continued to display remarkable calm over the five months graphed. Overall dividends from $1k invested in each of the top ten popped 4.83% from December 30 to May 29. Meanwhile aggregate single share stock price for these Carnevale Super 29 increased 5.45% for the period.

Compared to the Dow this Super 29 index showed $142 or 30% lower aggregate share price and also $13.75 or 3.41% more annual dividends projected from $1k invested in each of the top ten dogs in May.

Stay Tuned

Each month a summary concludes this series of articles by showing results of yield and price for these Carnevale Power 25 and Carnevale Super 29 stocks compared to David Fish's Champions, Contenders, Challengers, and Composite lists, along with the Dow. Stay tuned and follow these intrepid conservative dividend dogs to learn if they grow or no.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long [[T]], [[VZ]], [[JNJ]], [[INTC]], [[CVX]].

]]> rrd syy avp pg arlp cvx nee nvs jnj afl leg ubsi bwl.a nue rpm ed nwn cwt ctws Dividend Quick Picks Lists NYSE International 100 Top Dog Stocks Mixed In May http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/748328-fredrik-arnold/741291-nyse-international-100-top-dog-stocks-mixed-in-may?source=feed 741291 This article reports results for the NYSE International 100 Index as of June 1 based on "Dogs of the Index" a once per year trading system based on yield used to determine the best of these dividend stocks.

Previous articles in this series reported results from two sector-based indices, plus the Russell 1000, S&P 500, and Dow 30 Industrials; S&P 500 Aristocrats; NASDAQ 100; JPMorgan New Sovereigns.

Dogs of the Index Metrics

Two key numbers determined the yields that ranked the stocks in each index: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically dividend dog investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index, sector, or survey to trade. They awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

This Dogs of the Index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higginsin the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how low yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) could be sold off once each year to sweep gains and reinvest seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

Investor Empowerment from the NYSE International 100

Listed below are the top thirty NYSE International100 stocks by yield as of June 1 per Yahoo Finance data.

The NYSE states, "The NYSE International 100 Index tracks the largest 100 non-U.S. common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. As of year-end 2004, the companies represented have a combined market capitalization (float-adjusted) of $4.3 trillion. Together they represent over one-quarter of the total market capitalization of all common stocks listed on the NYSE."

As of June 1, three of the top ten stocks that showed the biggest dividend yields in this index were technology firms. Top dog Banco Santander S.A. (STD) was one of two financial companies. Three basic material firms were in the top ten along with one healthcare firm and one utility.

Of the top thirty NYSE International dividend payers, six technology companies, one consumer goods, nine financial, one service, eight basic materials, no industrial, four healthcare, one utility, and no conglomerates represented the sectors.

Up and Down Moves for NYSE International 100 Index Stocks

Since February three different firms exchanged places earning the yellow tint awarded the dog at the top of the list; YPF Sociedad (YPF); Telefonica, S.A. (TEF); Banco Santander S.A. which on June 14 will change its ticker symbol to (SAN).

Color code shows: (Yellow) firms listed in first position at least once between February and June 2012; (Cyan Blue) firms listed in tenth position at least once between February and June 2012; (Magenta) firms listed in twentieth position at least once between February and June 2012; (Green) firms listed in thirtieth position at least once between February and June 2012. Duplicates (if any) are depicted in color for highest ranking attained.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since April 17 were made by not one of the top ten NYSE International 100 dogs. However, top dog Banco Santander S.A. managed to stay even at a $6.55 share price.

Bearish downward price moves for the same period hit the rest of the dogs of the NYSE International 100: Former top dog YPF Sociedad Anonima dropped off the list due to suspension of its dividends; France Telecom (FTE) experienced a 7.76% price hang up; Telefonica, S.A. shares dropped 26.27%; Astrazeneca PLC (AZN) price sagged 11.46%; Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. (BBVA) dropped off the list due to suspension of its dividends; Westpac Banking Corp. (WBK) price folded 15.4%; ENI S.p.A. (E) dug a 36.22% price trench; National Grid PLC (NGG) disconnected 3.02% in price and had it's estimated dividend upgraded 19.67% by Yahoo to propel itself on to the top ten; VimpelCom Ltd. (VIP) price dropped 3.02%; Companhia Siderurgica (SID) share price melted 32.09%; Vale S.A. (VALE) price dropped 22.29% since April to join the top ten.

Dividend vs. Price Results for the NYSE International 100 Index

Relative strengths of the top ten NYSE International 100 Index stocks by yield was graphed as of June 1, 2012. Projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks each month and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for each of the past five months shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

Conclusion: A Bull Roared in May

Despite the massive drop in top ten NYSE International 100 Index top ten dogs individual share prices, the new assembled May team showed a 16.2% bullish drop in projected dividends from $1000 invested in each along with a .886% rise in aggregate total single share price since April 17.

Between February and May however the bear track was evident as dividends for this group increased 10.85% while aggregate single share price dropped 15.54%.

Will the NYSE International 100 Index price gains return this summer or will bears hold sway until this Euro-Asia Zone index finds a bottom? Stay tuned.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

]]> Thu, 14 Jun 2012 18:15:18 -0400 This article reports results for the NYSE International 100 Index as of June 1 based on "Dogs of the Index" a once per year trading system based on yield used to determine the best of these dividend stocks.

Previous articles in this series reported results from two sector-based indices, plus the Russell 1000, S&P 500, and Dow 30 Industrials; S&P 500 Aristocrats; NASDAQ 100; JPMorgan New Sovereigns.

Dogs of the Index Metrics

Two key numbers determined the yields that ranked the stocks in each index: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declared the percentage yield by which each dog stock was ranked.

Historically dividend dog investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index, sector, or survey to trade. They awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

This Dogs of the Index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higginsin the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how low yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) could be sold off once each year to sweep gains and reinvest seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

Investor Empowerment from the NYSE International 100

Listed below are the top thirty NYSE International100 stocks by yield as of June 1 per Yahoo Finance data.

The NYSE states, "The NYSE International 100 Index tracks the largest 100 non-U.S. common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. As of year-end 2004, the companies represented have a combined market capitalization (float-adjusted) of $4.3 trillion. Together they represent over one-quarter of the total market capitalization of all common stocks listed on the NYSE."

As of June 1, three of the top ten stocks that showed the biggest dividend yields in this index were technology firms. Top dog Banco Santander S.A. (STD) was one of two financial companies. Three basic material firms were in the top ten along with one healthcare firm and one utility.

Of the top thirty NYSE International dividend payers, six technology companies, one consumer goods, nine financial, one service, eight basic materials, no industrial, four healthcare, one utility, and no conglomerates represented the sectors.

Up and Down Moves for NYSE International 100 Index Stocks

Since February three different firms exchanged places earning the yellow tint awarded the dog at the top of the list; YPF Sociedad (YPF); Telefonica, S.A. (TEF); Banco Santander S.A. which on June 14 will change its ticker symbol to (SAN).

Color code shows: (Yellow) firms listed in first position at least once between February and June 2012; (Cyan Blue) firms listed in tenth position at least once between February and June 2012; (Magenta) firms listed in twentieth position at least once between February and June 2012; (Green) firms listed in thirtieth position at least once between February and June 2012. Duplicates (if any) are depicted in color for highest ranking attained.

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

Bullish upward price moves since April 17 were made by not one of the top ten NYSE International 100 dogs. However, top dog Banco Santander S.A. managed to stay even at a $6.55 share price.

Bearish downward price moves for the same period hit the rest of the dogs of the NYSE International 100: Former top dog YPF Sociedad Anonima dropped off the list due to suspension of its dividends; France Telecom (FTE) experienced a 7.76% price hang up; Telefonica, S.A. shares dropped 26.27%; Astrazeneca PLC (AZN) price sagged 11.46%; Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. (BBVA) dropped off the list due to suspension of its dividends; Westpac Banking Corp. (WBK) price folded 15.4%; ENI S.p.A. (E) dug a 36.22% price trench; National Grid PLC (NGG) disconnected 3.02% in price and had it's estimated dividend upgraded 19.67% by Yahoo to propel itself on to the top ten; VimpelCom Ltd. (VIP) price dropped 3.02%; Companhia Siderurgica (SID) share price melted 32.09%; Vale S.A. (VALE) price dropped 22.29% since April to join the top ten.

Dividend vs. Price Results for the NYSE International 100 Index

Relative strengths of the top ten NYSE International 100 Index stocks by yield was graphed as of June 1, 2012. Projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks each month and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for each of the past five months shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

Conclusion: A Bull Roared in May

Despite the massive drop in top ten NYSE International 100 Index top ten dogs individual share prices, the new assembled May team showed a 16.2% bullish drop in projected dividends from $1000 invested in each along with a .886% rise in aggregate total single share price since April 17.

Between February and May however the bear track was evident as dividends for this group increased 10.85% while aggregate single share price dropped 15.54%.

Will the NYSE International 100 Index price gains return this summer or will bears hold sway until this Euro-Asia Zone index finds a bottom? Stay tuned.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

]]> STD YPF TEF FTE AZN WBK NGG VIP SID VALE; Dividend Quick Picks and Lists