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  • Zulily's Current Valuation Is Unreasonable And Unsustainable [View article]
    Hi Jean,

    I enjoyed the read and agree that strictly from a valuation standpoint, the company has gone too far too fast. That said though, this is an excellent company and the long-term fundamentals are quite strong. With respect to the business model though Groupon is not a comparable company per se (and are not profitable yet). Groupon focuses on big discounts sporadically but Zulily offers those daily and is profitable. Vipshop is quite a similar company and they have done gangbusters. ZU has come down about 20% from its high but I am remaining on the sidelines. Hopefully a better price can be had but the long-term economics of the business are potentially enormous if they can turn out anything like Vipshop in terms of profitability.
    Mar 9, 2014. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolian Growth Group: A Pick And Shovel But Not For Commodities [View article]
    Thanks for posting that Jon. For a guy with a resume such as Paul Byrne to take over as CEO you can't help but be excited. This is a game changer
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Interesting Speculation In The Micro Cap Coal Space [View article]
    Well put. If they can keep the lights on I do believe there will be a considerable pay day down the road at current prices. Carbon Creek is simply too valuable a property coupled with virtually zero political risk makes it an attractive acquisition target IF met coal prices come back.
    Jan 8, 2014. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulily: A Compelling Buy Or Just Another Flash Sale In Time? [View article]
    A few hundred negative comments out of the hundreds of thousands of satisfied customers is much ado about nothing. Don't sweat it, every company in the world has complaints. Think how many complaints Visa and Mastercard get everyday. Would you not want to own these great businesses because of a few complaints?
    Dec 25, 2013. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulily: A Compelling Buy Or Just Another Flash Sale In Time? [View article]
    Excellent piece James, thanks for your hard work on this.
    Nov 25, 2013. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Interesting Speculation In The Micro Cap Coal Space [View article]
    I think Luxor was trying to completely fleece them so getting out from under that is good but they still need $ to finish the bankable feasibility study. If they can get that from somewhere somehow, something good might yet come from this debacle. Definitely not out of the woods yet.
    Aug 18, 2013. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Me Not IPO Will Be Hot [View article]
    Really? People said the same thing about Amazon/Ebay when they first emerged on the scene. "Anybody with an Internet connection can build a site so therefore there is no value." Build a coupon site this weekend and after a few years, see where you are. If you are able to create a site with recurring customers of say 10 percent of Retailmenot's, then you have my vote. The bottom line is that value is created through network effects. Network effects are not as powerful as they once were but they are still pretty damn powerful in bringing people in and creating a stream of frequent users.
    Jul 27, 2013. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RetailMeNot - No Coupons Offered For This Public Offering [View article]
    It's clear from your article that you don't understand the business model at all.
    Jul 23, 2013. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Interesting Speculation In The Micro Cap Coal Space [View article]
    Holding Cardero has been one of the most frustrating investment related experiences I've had. We have a world class asset in one of the best coal mining regions in the world surrounded by majors. It floors me that a major hasn't taken them out yet or at least done some sort of off-take agreement. I guess everyone is looking at the macro picture and only sees storm clouds ahead. What they could do to help out a lot (in fairness perhaps they have been trying for some time) is to sell off all their other assets an become a pure coal play. That would boost the stock price and fortify the balance sheet. That is what gives me hope with this company.
    Jun 19, 2013. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Abenomics Experiment: Major Risks For Japan's Banks [View article]
    So the big question in all this is whether or not Japan will be able to create inflation. In my mind, the answer is yes if the Yen continues falling. I think it's important to keep in mind that while Japan has double sovereignty with respect to their currency and bond market, the fact they are an island puts them in an incredibly weak position if the Yen continues to drop. The amount of Yen they are spending on oil and gas is killing them, imagine what would happen if the Yen went to 150 or higher? Abe has stated he wants to get the nukes back up and running ASAP but could he politically do it? Perhaps a few of the "safest" nukes he could get up and running but I'm not sure if it would even be enough to help out the trade balance/current account. Combining their precarious energy situation with the stated goal of the government to crush the Yen could make for a terrible scenario and finally lift the country out of their deflationary environment. Unfortunately however it will be the type of inflation they can't afford and certainly don't want. What then happens to the bond market?
    Jun 2, 2013. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short Japanese Government Bonds Is Now [View article]
    Yes, Japan does not depend on outside financing right now but they depend (to a great degree) on the outside world for resources of which they are currently spending a ton of Yen on. Will Abe be able to get all the nukes back up and running to help out the trade balance? I'm inclined to believe he won't (save for a few). If the Yen continues to weaken and or experiences an uncontrollable move like Kyle Bass has talked about, they will leave this "nirvana" Yen/Dollar ratio and any benefit they get from a weakening Yen will be heavily offset by the vast amount of energy they must buy as well as the increased costs for their inputs for their exporters. They are trying to stay in this perfect narrow band of low bond yields and a Yen to Dollar of 95-110 or whatever, I think it's a pipe dream. If the Yen takes a nosedive they then will be importing inflation due to their lack of any natural resources and hence a likely continued sell off in the bond market.
    May 15, 2013. 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short Japanese Government Bonds Is Now [View article]
    Babboo

    Yes, Japan does not depend on outside financing right now but they depend (to a great degree) on the outside world for resources of which they are currently spending a ton of Yen on. Will Abe be able to get all the nukes back up and running to help out the trade balance? I'm inclined to believe he won't (save for a few). If the Yen continues to weaken and or experiences an uncontrollable move like Kyle Bass has talked about, they will leave this "nirvana" Yen/Dollar ratio and any benefit they get from a weakening Yen will be heavily offset by the vast amount of energy they must buy as well as the increased costs for their inputs for their exporters. They are trying to stay in this perfect narrow band of low bond yields and a Yen to Dollar of 95-110 or whatever, I think it's a pipe dream. If the Yen takes a nosedive they then will be importing inflation due to their lack of any natural resources and hence a likely continued sell off in the bond market.
    May 15, 2013. 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Interesting Speculation In The Micro Cap Coal Space [View article]
    Yea, I definitely agree. Maybe management has been focused on finding a buyer for Ghana and their other assets, maybe not. It would be a good strategy and you are right I believe, boost up the stock price and re-energize the share base if they sold everything and just focused 100% on Carbon Creek. The mis-pricing by the market though makes me want to throw up, the assets they have are so incredibly cheap I want to hit my head against the wall.
    Apr 19, 2013. 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Interesting Speculation In The Micro Cap Coal Space [View article]
    I've been wondering that myself and its been incredibly frustrating watching the stock price continue to crater based often on no news. That tells me that there is a high level of impatience with many shareholders who wanted the funding to come the day after the company released their PEA. I think people need to be more realistic. Coal is in a bad place but Cardero has very valuable assets in one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world and is surrounded by majors. I can't think of a better takeover candidate. The stock price suggests that the bottom has fallen out but the news certainly doesn't show that. They recently announced that they have extended the deadline to acquire the remaining 25% of Carbon Creek until April 22 and the market ends the shares down 16%. They can do no right, all one has to do is look back at all their press releases revealing good news to see that the market doesn't care and continues to send it down irrationally. The big question is where is the funding going to come from? I don't know but I don't think it's likely to be from massive dilution, it's just a tough time for coal right now. I still believe funding from a joint venture will come at some point.
    Apr 17, 2013. 11:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Free Lottery Tickets Attached To Stellar Balance Sheets [View article]
    Great piece,I love investing in these types of situations. At their current prices, there is little risk in the short term and the upside potential is huge. I'm especially fond of HRT Participacoes. Mr. "Go Deep" has a great track record and just needs shareholders that have patience to let him work his magic.
    Mar 30, 2013. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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