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  • Tesla Is Fully Priced, With More Risk Than Opportunity [View article]
    Great article and add to it the the article by Zerohedge exposing the pumpjob from Morgan Scamley:

    Tesla has just announced it intends to issue a $1.6 billion
    convertible note offering "for the development of a "Gigafactory" and a
    "Gen III" vehicle." While not that unusual - and of course, why not take
    advantage of low cost financing and a surging momentum in your stock -
    what we did find at least intriguing was the underwriters included
    Morgan Stanley. This is the same firm (though we would be very sure that
    Chinese walls ensured total lack of knowledge) that doubled their price
    target (from $153 to $320) for TSLA yesterday (following the analyst's
    now almost clairvoyant questions during the earnings conference call). Paging Henry Blodgett?

    Four things jump out at us...

    1. During the recent conference call, MS analyst Adam Jonas
    seems to be advancing the idea of a capital raising for this battery
    factory on the behalf of Musk, who just agrees with the concept...

    Adam Jonas: Elon,
    the stock price and the results have been obviously performing very
    well lately. You’ve got some great investment opportunities and some
    growth opportunities ahead of you, not only in the auto business but
    also in the non-auto business and the battery business. So I’m just
    wondering, how are you thinking about being opportunistic and pulling in
    some fresh capital to help derisk the plan, plan for a force majeure,
    or to see some of these opportunities that you have.

    Elon Musk: Yes, I think that’s a good idea. I agree
    with that. I think that would be the smart move. We can talk more about
    that next week with — and also discuss the Gigafactory plans.
    Unfortunately, I can’t say anything [indiscernible] right now, except
    that I agree. I think your advice is good.

    Adam Jonas: Okay. And I don’t want to follow up [ph]
    or anything, but as a follow-up to that, I guess, is a — would a
    capital raising be a prerequisite to launch the Gigafactory? Or is that
    an understatement?

    Elon Musk: I think it’s necessary to have it occur in 3 years. It’s not necessary if we allow that time frame to expand.

    2. Morgan Stanley raises their price target for TSLA by over 100%

    January 25: Raising our price target to $320 from $153 previously.

    understand the change to our fair valuation of TSLA shares is
    significant – more than $13bn on a fully diluted share count of 142m.

    This magnitude of value attribution is equivalent to an additional
    $1.7bn of after tax free cash flow by 2020, growing at 5% with a 12%
    discount rate. A $1.7bn NOPAT number is enormous within the scope of
    Tesla’s existing business path (our current forecasts call for $0.8bn of
    net income by 2015 and $2.1bn by 2020).

    However, from the perspective of a global auto industry
    (>100 million annual unit sales and >$2 trillion of revenues by
    2020) or a global electric utility industry (0.7 billion households
    combined in US + Europe + China out of households 1.4 billion globally)
    is a tiny number. Our previous forecast of 500k complete TSLA vehicles
    by 2028 would account for 40bps of global market share.

    Successful? Yes. Disruptive? Not really at all.

    3. Day after Stock soars $60, Morgan Stanley underwrites a
    huge convertible note issue for TSLA (implicitly reducing an dilution
    via the stock ramp).
    Mar 5 12:50 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Rare Earth Metals Stocks [View article]
    You say Rare Element Resources (REE) had a loss of 6c in the Sept Qtr, but if you look at their UNAUDITED financial report, the stated loss per share does not show the true picture of expenses because ALL MINING/EXPLORATION expenses are being CAPITALIZED rather than expensed. Looks like they spent $2.8 MILLION in the Sept 2010 quarter on those items that do not show up in the losses.

    In order to continue at this rate of, say, $3m/quarter, they'll be out of money in less than a year because the financial statement shows $11M cash & equivalents. That means, they'll have to go to the public markets and probably ask for another secondary share offering which will substantially dilute shareholders.

    Did I say the report was UNAUDITED?

    As Mark Twain said, the definition of a "mine" is:

    "A hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it."

    Not that REE's people are not telling the truth, but there is so much uncertainty in this market and with MCP's announcement of potentially DOUBLING their capacity to 40,000 tons/year in 2012, REE will be WAY, WAY, late to market when their Bear Lodge mine comes on-line in 2015. MCP will OWN THE MARKET by then.

    Anybody buying REE's shares today is buying fool's gold and is probably in for a world of hurt.
    Jan 4 04:47 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    Yes, it sounds wonderful to "refer all suspected cases on or in connection with its website to appropriate legal authorities," but unfortunately (at least in the US), the "appropriate legal authorities" is the one and only S.E.C.

    The S.E.C. has been absolutely toothless in pursuing unethical market players who attack a stock via naked shorting and corrupt analysts who pump stocks before secondary offerings for which they just so happen to be the underwriter. The list goes on and on.

    So, as you can see, I don't have much faith in "the appropriate legal authorities."

    How about establishing a crowdsourced enforcement on SA that enables SA readers to "report" unethical articles immediately to SA but the person reporting the unethical article must not only click a button of disapproval, they would also have to explain WHY the article is unethical to SA and provide proof via links to valid news sources showing the dishonesty.

    SA then reviews the explanations and deletes articles based on whether SA deems the article was unethical. I realize this puts SA in the position of being judge & jury and could be abused by people "reporting" articles they simply didn't agree with.

    There could be ways to disable such "false alarm people" by giving each contributor only one or two instances of "false alarms" and then they're out of the pool of available enforcement individuals.

    In an ideal world, I think this would work because there are some pretty sharp eyes on SA who have principles. But realistically, I know this is adding labor-intensive enforcement review tasks and SA would probably have to hire personnel to do this.

    Alternatively, instead of hiring enforcement personnel, SA could provide cash incentives to contributors who are part of the crowd enforcement for each time they successfully expose an unethical article. Through the process, SA would develop a list of tried-and-true SA contributors who SA can rely on (and offer compensation) for red-flagging.

    Hey, there's nothing like capitalism to find a solution to a problem like this, eh?
    Mar 29 01:50 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory: A Risk Assessment [View article]
    Looks like the SEC is chasing down TSLA's slick accounting principles too:

    Tesla Motors, Inc.
    Form 10-K for Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2012
    Filed March 7, 2013
    Form 10-Q for Quarterly Period Ended September 30, 2013
    Filed November 8, 2013
    File No. 001-34756
    Dear Mr. Musk:
    We have reviewed your filing and have the following comments. In some of our comments, we may ask you to provide us with information so we may better understand your disclosure.
    Please respond to this letter within 10 business days by confirming that you will revise your document in future filings (unless otherwise indicated) and providing any requested information. If you do not believe our comments apply to your facts and circumstances, please tell us why in your response.
    After reviewing the information you provide in response to these comments, we may have additional comments.
    Form 10-K for Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2012
    Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

    Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates, page 69
    1. Please include your policy for estimating residual values guaranteed to customers who finance their vehicles through your banking partners as a critical accounting policy. Include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions applied in determining the estimated residual amounts and the likelihood of materially different reported results if different assumptions or conditions were to exist.


    Page 2
    Revenues, page 78
    2. Please quantify the amount of vehicle service revenue included in vehicle, options and related sales and discuss any significant changes in the amount from the prior period as well as the factor(s) causing such changes. In addition, if management expects the introduction of the prepaid maintenance programs to have a material impact on the timing of recognizing service revenue, please discuss this change in trend and its expected impact on service sales.

    Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, page 98
    Maintenance Programs
    3. We note per page 12 of your Business section that you announced a prepaid maintenance program to include plans covering maintenance costs at either a fixed price per visit or unlimited visits. Please disclose your policy for accounting for both types of plans.
    Form 10-Q for Quarterly Period Ended September 30, 2013
    Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

    Results of Operations, page 27
    4. Please revise to disclose the number of units sold and the number delivered under resale value guarantee terms and accounted for as operating leases.

    Liquidity and Capital Resources, page 32
    5. We note that at the end of May 2013 you announced the significant expansion of your Supercharger network to include coverage on the U.S. west and east costs and around the rest of the country. Please discuss your expansion plan in more detail including the expected associated costs to achieve your goal.

    Note 2. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies
    Resale value guarantee, page 10
    6. We note your disclosure that in April 2013 you began offering resale value guarantees on certain sales financed through your banking partners. We also note you account for such transactions as operating leases. With regard to measurement of expense during the term of the operating lease, you disclose that you depreciate the cost of the respective operating lease vehicles less the resale value guarantee amount to cost of automotive sales over the contractual term of the guarantee program. Please explain to us the basis under GAAP for your use of this method, in which the depreciable basis excludes the resale value guarantee amount and in which the depreciation rate is not based on the useful life of the vehicles. In this regard, ASC 840-10-55-18 requires equipment to be depreciated following the manufacturer’s normal depreciation policy.

    7. We also note your disclosure that you will adjust your depreciation estimates as needed, if the resale value is projected to be lower in future periods. Please explain to us the basis under GAAP for your use of this method.

    8. Please revise the presentation on your statements of operations to separately classify resale value guarantee sales as operating lease revenue and to separately present associated costs (depreciation) within cost of revenues.

    9. Please confirm to us that in future periods you will separately quantify product sales revenue and associated cost of revenues related to previously delivered vehicles for which customers did not elect to sell vehicles back to you under the resale value guarantee.

    10. Please revise your footnotes to include a table that rolls forward accounts related to resale value guarantee operating leases for all periods presented.
    Form 8-K furnished November 5, 2013
    Exhibit 99.1

    11. We note the subheading of your third quarter shareholder letter cites non-GAAP gross margin and net income without also citing the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Please revise to present, with equal or greater prominence, results on a GAAP basis throughout your press releases. Refer to Item 2.02 of Form 8-K and Item 10(e)(1)(i)(A) of Regulation S-K.
    12. Page 10 of your third quarter shareholder letter includes a full non-GAAP income statement. Please revise to discontinue such presentation pursuant to question 102.10 of the C&DIs on non-GAAP financial measures.
    We urge all persons who are responsible for the accuracy and adequacy of the disclosure in the filing to be certain that the filing includes the information the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and all applicable Exchange Act rules require. Since the company and its management are in possession of all facts relating to a company’s disclosure, they are responsible for the accuracy and adequacy of the disclosures they have made.
    In responding to our comments, please provide a written statement from the company acknowledging that:
     the company is responsible for the adequacy and accuracy of the disclosure in the filing;

    Page 4
     staff comments or changes to disclosure in response to staff comments do not foreclose the Commission from taking any action with respect to the filing; and
     the company may not assert staff comments as a defense in any proceeding initiated by the Commission or any person under the federal securities laws of the United States.

    You may contact Theresa Messinese at 202-551-3307 if you have questions regarding comments on the financial statements and related matters. Please contact me at 202-551-3380 with any other questions.

    /s/ Lyn Shenk
    Lyn Shenk
    Branch Chief
    cc: Mark B. Baudler, Esq.
    Wilson Sonsini
    Mar 4 10:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson: Reject Tender, Keep Shares Locked And Loaded [View article]
    Yep, and proud of it. I have ethics.

    When we have a narcissistic/divisive President who inserts himself into the fray to incite racial division, he deserves to be part of the Trayvon label, right?

    After all, President Narcissus wanted to involve himself with his would-be "son" -- did he not?
    Jul 13 04:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson: Reject Tender, Keep Shares Locked And Loaded [View article]
    Re-read your post to me and then go look in your own mirror. Then consider how YOU just profiled me.

    You seem to know a lot about people without really knowing them.

    I suggest you get in touch with your own bigotry before accusing other of bigotry.

    As for the "TrayBama" moniker, it nails the fact that YOUR racially-divisive president had to arrogantly insert himself into the issue to flare up racial tension with his, "If I had a son, he would look like Trayvon." He's a lawyer, he should know better than to spout off divisive comments that all but ensure that Zimmerman doesn't get a fair trial. Obama spoke before he had all the information and based on the media's devious portrayal of Traybama as an "innocent child."

    Hardly an innocent child:

    Read and learn:

    July 11, 2013
    President Obama vs. George Zimmerman: America Loses
    By Karin McQuillan

    As the Zimmerman prosecution falls apart, the country faces the threat of race riots. A case that lacked any evidence of malicious murder was wrongfully brought to court under political pressure. And our president, who instigated this mess, is floating above it all, having moved on to other things. Will Obama speak out to avert the racial violence he set in motion? Unless he sees some political advantage, the answer is no.

    Judicial Watch has obtained documents disclosing that the Department of Justice actually helped organize demonstrations and protests against George Zimmerman.

    The Zimmerman case began with the media making up a racist story: a black kid carrying candy is shot in cold blood by a white man in a gated community. It was a story that sent fear and anger through black people across the country. President Obama was in a low point in his re-election campaign, trying to gin up the black vote. Zimmerman, as a scapegoat, was used as a chance for Obama to bond with fellow blacks. So, making history, the president of the United States intervened in a criminal justice matter to foment race-hatred and fear. President Obama himself made it an issue of skin color: "If I had a son, he would look like Trayvon Martin."

    Once the president of the United States weighed in, Zimmerman had a target on his back. An ounce of election advantage to our privileged, Ivy League president versus the ruination of a Hispanic man's life -- it was an easy choice for Obama. Obama's great appeal to voters in 2008 was his self-presentation as a black man without animus or grievance, eager to move the country beyond divisions of all sorts -- black and white, red and blue. In reality, Obama is obsessed with divisions -- race, class, gender -- and is expert at fueling war between us, to his political advantage.

    Obama has used accusations of racism before, to rally his troops and attack his political opponents. Opposition to ObamaCare? Racist. Opposition to big government? Racist. His core liberal supporters like this stuff, and the other voters give him a pass on this, as on everything. The election analysts were predicting that even black turnout could dip in 2012. Obama moved from racial slurs on opposition groups to attacking a particular individual citizen. Zimmerman was sacrificed.

    The Sanford police had concluded, based on a careful gathering of evidence, that they had no case for murder or even manslaughter. Being caught up in a tragedy is not a crime. Zimmerman had a right to self-defense. After Obama's intervention, the police were overruled, and a case of malicious, racist murder was taken to court.

    The liberal media piled on. American blacks were purposefully stirred up, angered, heartbroken, then mollified. Obama underlined his racial identification with their grief and outrage, capitalizing on the poignant childhood photo of Martin, his imaginary son.

    Zimmerman didn't get to be the president's imaginary son. Wrong color. Zimmerman got to be the enemy.

    Of all Americans, blacks should believe in their hearts that a man is innocent until proven guilty, no matter the color of his skin. Instead, too many black Americans have allowed themselves to be manipulated by the liberal media and self-serving politicians to become a lynch mob, threatening violence if the trial doesn't convict. Evidence that things are not as bad as they thought only makes them angrier.

    Jonah Goldberg writes at RealClearPolitics:

    The Washington Post reported this week that civil-rights activists in Florida are dismayed that the George Zimmerman murder trial in Florida isn't racially divisive enough. "It makes you feel kind of angry and kind of bad that race is not a part of this," the Rev. Harrold C. Daniels, told the Post. "It's a missed opportunity."

    The "problem," as even the Martin family's attorney concedes, is that there's just not much evidence that Zimmerman was motivated by racial animus. You'd think that would be good news. But it's not because so many people invested in the idea that "Trayvon Martin is Emmett Till!" in the words of one demagogic radio host, and countless other commentators.

    Teenage blacks aren't gunned down by racist whites in America anymore -- if they were, we would all be reading headlines on that case. But Democrats rely on angry, scared blacks to be their loyal base. So the media and the president had to make do with Martin and Zimmerman. So far, the trial has, witness by witness, destroyed the prosecution's case, but the liberal community has not let go of its narrative -- a white man in a gated community killing a kid with candy because he was black.

    Nothing in their story proved true.

    It wasn't a white man; it was a Hispanic.

    George Zimmerman is not a racist. He is an outstandingly race-blind man who was raised with two black children his mother was a nanny for, who were beloved by his family and remain close to this day.

    The prosecution cannot make a case for racism, because they would have to allow the following as evidence:

    Zimmerman conducted a one-man crusade to get justice for a black homeless man beaten by a policeman's son.

    In late 2010, a homeless African American man, Sherman Ware, was knocked unconscious for no reason whatsoever by the son of a Sanford City police officer, George was upset that the son was not arrested and that no one seemed to care about the homeless man. George produced and distributed a notice of what had happened and rallied support for the homeless gentleman. George put this notice on vehicles and passed it out at churches as services ended. Eventually, largely due to George's efforts, the police officer's son was charged with the assault.

    Zimmerman and his wife mentored two black children, and helped their mother with home repairs.

    Although George was working full-time and going to school, he made it a priority in his life to do as much for these children as possible. When I met these two young children I did not know who they were, I asked where they knew George from. They replied 'he's our mentor'. I was unsure what these two young people meant by the word 'mentor' so I asked them what that was. Their reply was that "George takes us places, helps us with things, and teaches us to do the right things. We really love George". George also assisted their mother as much as possible with any repairs or help that may be needed around their house. Unfortunately, the mentoring program ended. However, George and Shellie continued their activities on their own. When George's mother asks why he had to travel to such a dangerous area to mentor children, George's reply was 'Mom, I really love these kids and if I don't go, they won't have anyone".

    It was not a privileged white gated community, but an interracial place peopled by upwardly mobile working- and middle-class families trying to remain safe in a high-crime neighborhood. Zimmerman got along well with his black neighbors.

    Prior to George's arrest, the media asked two African American neighbors of George if he was a racist. One said that she knew George very well, nothing about George portrayed in the media was accurate, and that to this day she would trust George Zimmerman with her life. The other commented that George Zimmerman was the only individual, black or white, that had introduced himself when she was moving in. He gave her his phone number and said if there was anything she needed at any time, please call him or his wife. She is totally convinced that the individual portrayed in the media is certainly not the George Zimmerman that she knows well.

    Nor do they know much about Trayvon Martin's downward spiral after this father's second divorce, when he was forced to leave the stepmother he grew up with most of his life. They believe in the cultivated image of a kid "carrying candy" and "iced tea," and they resent speaking ill of the dead.

    The truth is different. Martin had gone to the 7-11 to buy a cigar under the counter, which he and his friends used to fill with marijuana, called a "blunt." He bought Skittles and Arizona Watermelon Fruit Juice Cocktail to lace with codeine from cough syrup to get high with, a druggy concoction called "Lean." We know all this from his online chat with friends about blunts and Lean, testimony from his cousin to the police, and the store video camera.

    Martin was not the small sweet-faced boy shown in the media photos, but a big, angry 17-year-old. He was recently suspended from school when they found that his backpack held burglary tools and 12 pieces of stolen women's jewelry and a watch. It is not unlikely that he was out on that rainy night casing houses to burgle.

    Jack Cashill spells out "What the Media Choose Not to Know about Trayvon":

    In the past year or so, his social media sites showed a growing interest in drugs, in mixed martial arts-style street fighting, in a profoundly vulgar exploitation of "bitches."

    Trayvon posed for one photo with raised middle fingers, another with wads of cash held in an out-stretched arm. One YouTube video shows him refereeing a fight club-style street fight. A cousin had recently tweeted him, "Yu ain't tell me yu swung on a bus driver," meaning, if true, that Trayvon had punched out a bus driver.

    Zimmerman never saw the cute little boy that the TV audience did. He saw a full-grown man, a druggy, a wannabe street fighter, the tattooed, gold-grilled, self-dubbed "No_Limit_Nigga."

    There is no evidence that Martin was chased and cold-bloodedly gunned down. That's another fabrication. Zimmerman was on the phone with the dispatcher almost the entire time. He says Martin jumped on him from the shadows and began beating him as he headed back to his truck. Their location in the housing development, not far from Zimmerman's truck, supports Zimmerman's account, not the imaginary chase scene. There is an eyewitness to the beating, who saw Martin on top, beating Zimmerman "mixed martial arts-style."

    Each mother claims that it is her son's voice calling for help on the 911 tape. But the wounds were on Martin's fist and on Zimmerman's face and skull. The eyewitness saw Martin on top of Zimmerman, raining blows on him. Martin's own father and brother initially told police they did not think it was Martin's voice yelling for help. The one witness told police at the scene that it was Zimmerman calling for help.

    The defense asked Good to confirm what he told Serine immediately after the shooting: "So I open my door. It was a black man with a black hoodie on top of the other, either a white guy or now I found out I think it was a Hispanic guy with a red sweatshirt on the ground yelling out, 'Help!'["]

    Yet the liberal lynch mob acts as if their initial made-up story is still the true version. The black community is disappointed that the prosecution didn't present evidence of malicious racism and murderous intent, needed for the second-degree murder charge to stick.

    The prosecution had no such case to be made, but Democrats know who is guilty -- the man the liberal media and press fingered. Evidence and lack of evidence in a court of law do not impress them.

    So they ignore all the details, since the details don't support their rush to judgment.

    Here is Juan Williams, hardly a race-baiter:

    So, if a black guy shot a white kid, and they said, 'Oh, the kid was carrying Skittles and iced tea, but you know what these punks get away with it all the time.' People would say forget who was on top of who and who was punching who. Why was a guy with a gun deciding that he had to act violently with a teen with an iced tea?

    Juan is acting like we don't know the answer to that question: the guy with the gun was on the ground having his head bashed into a cement sidewalk by a teenager bigger and stronger and meaner than he was, when "the teen" reached for the guy's gun and said, "You're going to die tonight." That's why the guy shot the teen. Wouldn't you defend your life, Juan? Why does iced tea enter in? Why does race enter into this? There is no reason to think George Zimmerman would make it all up so he could shoot a black kid.

    What is going on here is a tragedy for the whole country, a tragedy of many black lives blighted.

    Thomas Sowell, in a superb column entitled "Who Is Racist?," writes:

    Is this what so many Americans, both black and white, struggled for, over the decades and generations, to try to put the curse of racism behind us ...

    What went wrong? ... black leaders have ranged from noble souls to shameless charlatans. After the success of the civil rights insurgency, the latter have come into their own, gaining money, power and fame by promoting racial attitudes and actions that are counterproductive to the interests of those they lead.

    Groups that rose from poverty to prosperity seldom did so by having racial or ethnic leaders. While most Americans can easily name a number of black leaders, current or past, how many can name Asian American ethnic leaders or Jewish ethnic leaders?

    The time is long overdue to stop looking for progress through racial or ethnic leaders. Such leaders have too many incentives to promote polarizing attitudes and actions that are counterproductive for minorities and disastrous for the country.

    The Civil Rights Movement had aims so lofty they seemed impossible. Then we accomplished them. Martin Luther King and his supporters united to fight not just segregation, but the evil of racism that lay behind it. It took most of the country working together, black and white, Republican and Democrat, Christian and Jew. We succeeded beyond our wildest dreams. Discrimination was ended in America. Within a generation, racism became rare and socially unacceptable. According to the world map of racism compiled by the World Values Survey, only 3.8% of Americans are reluctant to have a neighbor of another race. Within two generations, we elected a black president.

    Yet despite all the practical gains by blacks, defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory. The Zimmerman trial reveals how black racial pain is kept alive. Liberal carpetbaggers foment black racial fears and resentments for their own political and media power and financial gain.

    Black children who are told that that the game is rigged against them, who live close to the boil of churning racial anger, are cheated of Martin Luther King's success. They have been handed over to the Jesse Jackson race-hustlers and the Al Sharpton race-baiters and the Barack Obama manipulators. Perpetual victimhood, and the accompanying fear, pain, anger, resentment, and self-pity, are not emotions that promote success in life. The doors of opportunity may be open, but too many black children, especially boys, are hobbled and don't develop what it takes to walk through.

    Trayvon Martin was one of their victims. So is George Zimmerman. Thanks to President Obama, so is the whole country.
    Jul 13 03:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Expecting a Sell-Off [View article]
    This is the most shallow technical analysis I've seen in a long time ("I 'think" the market is heading lower." Oh really? Well I think the market is going sideways, but FSLR will show relative strength in that market.

    Other points: 1) Even a Baboon can draw support/resistance lines and Gann Fann lines. 2) FSLR is in a sideways consolidation pattern and has been quite stable in the last 2 months. ENER & SPWRA both showed good earnings and FSLR's panels are more efficient than ENER's, so it is likely FSLR will get a nice pop on earnings. 3) After a long sideways consolidation, most technical analysis becomes meaningless (stochastics, Macd, OBV, Bollinger bands). In particular Gann Fanns are one of the worst tech analysis tools, having no more predictive value than astrology. The fact that the author believes so speaks volumes about his authority to speak on this subject!

    Final Point: Why would anyone go to the trouble to post his analysis on a stock, posing as a "good samaritan" helping YOU to prevent losses. More likely such posters want to accumulate shares by flushing out weak hands.

    Never trust a blowhard... FSLR will be just fine.
    Feb 16 01:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree: Another Leading Stock in Trouble [View article]
    This is a fluff article by either a short or a wannabe long who is too cheap to buy quality high-growth, disruptive technology stocks and ends up missing out on a stock like CREE's exponential growth.
    Jun 10 03:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory: A Risk Assessment [View article]
    The risk of failure would seem high given the early-adopter state's Tesla sales figures (California) that show SEQUENTIAL SALES DECLINES in every quarter of 2013:

    According to CNCDA this shows the DECLINE Tesla Model S registrations in California during 2013:

    And this decline is in spite of the fact that California gives EV buyers a special welfare check AND they get to use the HOV lanes.

    Plus Tesla gets ZEV credits for sales in CA.

    PLUS Tesla is offering special financing in CA.

    Yet, the sales keep dropping sequentially quarter over quarter. How does Musk expect to ramp up to 100,000 sales a year if sales are already declining in the most liberal populous state in the US? It's clear that the easy fruit have been picked.

    So there is a great risk of the Gigafactory "investment" of other people's money failing to pay off.
    Mar 4 10:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JetBlue Shares Undervalued With New Business Initiatives And Live TV Subsidiary [View article]
    Ummm, regarding JBLU's "Fly-Fi" offering being cheaper than GOGO's Wi-Fi offering, the author would do well to visit the JetBlue website and note that the stated pricing for their "Fly-fi" is $9/hour for broadband access.
    Comparing apples to apples, GOGO's broadband access is $14/hour for a 24-hr period (e.g. multiple flight connections). Clearly if people want to kill time, they're going to want MORE than ONE $9.00 hour of Wi-Fi as provided by JBLU.
    For most in-flight wi-fi subscribers, GOGO's fixed $14 for 24 hours would actually be CHEAPER than JBLU -- not the other way around as stated in the article.
    JBLU is "beta-testing" their "Fly-Fi" until June 2014 and it will take JBLU until 2016 to install their Fly-Fi on their entire fleet.
    By contrast, here's a quick list of why GOGO's market position is far superior to JBLU's:
    1.10-year contracts with 5major U.S airlines
    2.1000 FAA ku band certificates approval for international expansion
    3.Delta 150 fleet international wifi this year
    4.Partnership with Inmarsat for a Global coverage
    5.AirMexico added last quarter
    6.Canada wifi complete this quarter
    7.Business Aviation private jet segment 42% up in last quarter
    8.Signed first foreign-based carrier contract with Japan Airlines (JAL) to provide Gogo's in-flight Internet service on JAL's entire domestic mainline fleet of 77 aircraft
    9.Announced Ground-To-Orbit (GTO), a new proprietary hybrid technology that blends satellite and ATG technologies. GTO is expected to increase peak speeds to an aircraft to 70 mbps and is targeted to launch in late summer of 2014
    10.Signed a five-year contract extension with Virgin America that includes a commitment for technology upgrades and establishes Virgin America as our launch partner for GTO
    11.Introduced Gogo Text & Talk for BA, a revolutionary new service that allows passengers to send and receive text messages, and to place and receive calls, using their own phone and their own number
    12.All major U.S airlines reported good quarters which bodes well for GOGO
    Stock is oversold and undervalued. Will reflect real value long term. Westjet as and when announced will be another feather in the cap
    13.GOGO will have a strong international presence later this year for trans-oceanic flights. International flights will have a MUCH higher usage of Gogo's inflight wi-fi, so profitability will jump considerably - later in 2014 and 2015. Short-haul carriers like JetBlue with limited trans-ocean flights (only Carribean and Venzuela) won't have near the profit margins because the shorter the flight, the less likely they'll get as high percentage of in-flight wi-fi subscribers.
    Feb 8 02:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson: Reject Tender, Keep Shares Locked And Loaded [View article]
    You've spelled out exactly what's wrong with the typical "low-information voter" in America:

    Too lazy to spend time on reading and learning about the issues.
    Jul 14 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Ambitious SuperCharger Infrastructure Build Is SuperExpensive [View article]
    What is not accurate about mentioning "government-subsidized?"

    As you surely know, in some states about $10,000 of the Model S sales price is subsidized by a "government" tax credit.

    Would you rather that the author NOT include mention of such facts?

    Imagine if you could walk into a Ford dealership and get a 16.6% "preferential discount" on any $60K car? The Tesla business model depends heavily on gov't subsidy.
    Jun 3 10:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    This article has so many false innuendos and a truly sophomoric manner of supporting a short thesis using couched ridicule.

    --"The key question becomes "what companies are naïve enough to take an extremely overvalued currency like FEYE?""

    --"In my opinion, management realized that an 8.5% discount still represented a great price at which to cash out."

    Umm, how do you really think you know what management was thinking? And if you're a G.S. "alumni" you should know that insider sells have statistically NO bearing on future stock price movement. It's insider buys that statistically are worth trading. This has been studied & researched inside & out and upside down.

    Furthermore, you didn't analyze what pecentage of each insiders total holdings were sold.

    Finally, other analysts have said the $82 secondary with 8M insider shares sold helps relieve selling pressure for lockups.

    Shallow analysis on your part, IMO.

    There are so many other such false innuendos throughout this article, where do I begin to retort it? Oh well, maybe it's not worth my time... Can I have my 10 minutes back?

    This is just another short hit piece that will be ignored. FEYE may surprise shorts and catch them flat-footed. The short bald man on CNBC (yes Cramer), is also trying to drum up fear & doubt about FEYE. What does that tell you? That Cramer Cronies want to accumulate or they want that extra punch downward for their short position. Do the opposite of Cramer and similar hucksters like the writer of this article and you'll make money.
    Mar 26 12:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory: A Risk Assessment [View article]
    No I didn't intentionally exclude the Dec 5th date - it's recent enough, though John Peterson's post below seems to indicate TSLA has "answered the SEC questions without answering some of them." Read it and you will see what I mean, specifically about the "Please revise to disclose the number of units sold and the number delivered under resale value guarantee terms and accounted for as operating leases" question.

    Note these SEC questions are AFTER the lack of transparency in TSLA's earnings releases had already burned some shorts and made money for some longs, which is not how the markets are supposed to work.

    As you know so well, Musk is known for softshoeing the costs of his projects in his announcements, for example in his much-hyped "Supercharge" announcement, he ONLY mentioned the cost to BUILD them, but conveniently glossed over the costs of the "Free" energy to charge all these vehicles -- instead perhaps preferring to hope that the sheeple will believe that the tiny solar panel footprint on top of the supercharger is enough to provide the juice for all the charges (on a good day, that Sqft of solar panels can charge perhaps 1-3 cars). Also no mention of the space rent and maintenance/cleaning/T... removal for each Supercharger.
    Mar 4 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Offers Compelling Risk/Reward Opportunity [View article]
    And here's an interesting idea regarding the IPO Lockup fear last week:

    If IPO Holders were so inclined to dump shares, they would have the past 2 days.

    With last week's concern about a flood of selling after the June 11th IPO lockup expiration, it's clear from past 2 days there's NOT a flood of selling.

    In fact, SCTY is currently trading 6.6% ABOVE the $33.11 low set on the morning of the IPO lockup expiration.

    These past two days of market tanking would normally have shaken out the IPO holders if they were so anxious to sell.

    So this is a good measure of LACK of selling demand for IPO holders.

    Will also be interesting to see if the Convertible Notes are completed today in conjunction with the 2.8M share Goldman Offering pricing. Looked like someone was holding a floor at $35.00 while the overall market kept on tanking. So my guess is the shares will be priced at somewhere at or above $35.00.

    Elon Musk's stated intent to buy 560K shares may have meant his broker was on the bid all day today.
    Jun 20 04:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment