FX Banko

FX Banko
Contributor since: 2012
* According to the latest CFTC report, investors are positioned for declines in the USD, as shown by the USD 6.8bln widening in the agg short USD position to USD 20.8bln.
* German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party won elections
We could see some risk on into the markets this week (or at least the beginning of it).
see more of our view at (including charts): http://bit.ly/VHSsA6
Last FOMC statement came mainly in-line with market expectations, keeping rates unchanged and buying mortgage-back securities at a pace of 40B $ per month plus an extra 45B $ per month on US Treasuries.
US Fiscal Cliff: with only two weeks left from this year, pressure would start to increase. The market doesn’t look like it has priced-in a failure and a surprise would bring a big downside move in $, probably most affected will be $JPY.
see more at (including charts): http://bit.ly/T1vIZU
US Fiscal Cliff: with only two weeks left from this year, pressure would start to increase. The market doesn’t look like it has priced-in a failure and a surprise would bring a big downside move in $, probably most affected will be $JPY.
Later FOMC statement came mainly in-line with market expectations, keeping rates unchanged and buying mortgage-back securities at a pace of 40B $ per month plus an extra 45B $ per month on US Treasuries.
see more at (including charts): http://bit.ly/T1vIZU
long risk have chances as the US $ is coming under more pressure with fiscal cliff escalating and high changes of continuing the QE3 at this Wednesday FOMC meeting and probably even a dovish tone from FOMC conference, plus the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows traders reducing their positions in $.
see more at (including charts): http://bit.ly/QRNjEZ
The looming fiscal cliff and market perception of further QE that are to be announced in the coming week kept adding pressure on $ looking to support this picture until NFP is released, Friday at 13:30 Ldn time.
see more at (including chart): http://bit.ly/VLMEnw
Today the focus was on the French Flash Manufacturing PMI that came 44.7 (expected at 44.1) taking out for a period the “French rating” pressure as Moody mentioned in its last French downgrade. Overall we seen a series of good Flash Manufacturing and Services results (Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI coming 46.8, expected 45.9) that will probably keep EUR in a bullish trend even on Asia session.
see continuation at: http://bit.ly/QxVjvU
$JPY: First major resistance comes in 80.61/66 seen on the D chart (high of 02.05.2012, high of 25.06.2012 and the last weeks high).
We have the 80.37 working as a pivot for the next days.
Important support trendline on the hourly chart that comes in 80.33 at 21:00 Sunday Ldn time.
see more at: http://bit.ly/RD5ADx