Seeking Alpha

G. Hudson

View as an RSS Feed
View G. Hudson's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    I am waiting just like you. I am surprised it is taking so long as Judge Parsons has seem to indicate the need to speed up the process of getting this case resolved. My guess is that he is searching for the needle in the haystack to give him a leg to stand on as to providing PharmAthene with a better award. However I don't think he has found it and isn't in any hurry to pass on the good news to SIGA. (NOTE: The last hearing for this case was on 1/15/14 so we are already at 90 days so should have results soon.)
    Apr 15 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mystery Of Icahn And Herbalife's AGM Delay [View article]
    See below excerpt from my article- “Herbalife Information Disputes Pyramid Allegations”

    Here is a link to my Seeking Alpha article- http://bit.ly/1d5iYx6

    Even though Herbalife didn't immediately have those numbers, I am very impressed with how quickly Herbalife's management acted by engaging Lieberman Worldwide Research, one of the top market research companies in the world, to conduct a survey to help develop a better understanding of Herbalife consumers in the U.S. as well as the actual percentage of sales to non-distributor customers. This decision has already paid huge dividends as documented by these excerpts from "Herbalife's CEO Discusses Q2 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript":

    Michael Johnson - Chairman and CEO: "Today, for example, we know that 20% of our U.S. volume is shipped directly from Herbalife to the end consumer who is not a distributor. And 30% to 35% of our volume in the U.S. is sold directly to consumers through nutrition clubs, so over half of our U.S. volume is going to the end consumer through these two business methods. And this doesn't include volume from our traditional person-to-person selling method."

    Michael Johnson - Chairman and CEO: "Over the past several years, a growing portion of our business has been driven by our distributors around the world moving to daily consumption business methods with long-term sustainable customers. We believe that daily consumption business methods now generate approximately 40% of our volume. With more than 36,000 non-residential nutrition clubs operated by our distributors around the world, Herbalife products and distributors are more accessible to more customers than ever before."

    Excerpt from Analyst John San Marco - Janney: "That's helpful. And then in terms of the U.S., what - I want to make sure I got my numbers right. I think Michael said that 30% to 35% of volume in the U.S. is daily consumption and then I think you stuck to the number that was about 40% of global volume is from daily consumption. Why do you think it is that the U.S. under-indexes?"

    Excerpt from Des Walsh, President of Herbalife: "So the answer is, John, because the clubs initially were adopted by our Latino group in the United States, and it was based on the success of the Latino group that then they were adopted within the general market. But that was probably about two years later, and that's why you're seeing that, by comparison, the percentage involved is lower today, but as far as future potential, we're very bullish upon the growth now that's happening in the general market."

    In addition to these direct sales to the end consumer, I believe that Herbalife has misclassified sales made to distributors that are strictly for self consumption and who don't have any down line. These distributors need to be reclassified as preferred customers. If they decide that they like Herbalife products enough to sell them and/or to recruit other distributors, they can easily become distributors by signing up online to become part of the distributor network. I personally have sent some suggestions to Herbalife on how to make this change, and I am confident that Herbalife will be able to make those changes soon.

    My conclusion is that Herbalife is not currently a pyramid or will ever be considered a pyramid here in the U.S. since per my best conservative guess, at least 60% to 75% of U.S. sales is to non-distributor customers. [(30% TO 35% "& growing" are direct sells to customers at clubs) + (20% of U.S. volume is shipped directly to non-distributor customers) + (traditional person-to-person sales to non-distributor customers) + (misclassified sales)]
    Mar 14 12:34 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Set To Soar [View article]
    "However, in our view, the capital structure is unsustainable, but the company does not have any meaningful maturities over the next 12 months."

    Can you explain the comment- "the capital structure is unsustainable"
    Mar 4 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    I am not aware of anything that would discredit this article so my answer is yes.
    Mar 2 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Throwing Money At Its Problems [View article]
    WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED TO EXPECT FROM ACKMAN- As each month comes to an end, Ackman has consistently released some type of information to try to depress Herbalife's share price so that he doesn't have to report as big of a loss on his Herbalife short. Anyone can go back thru the history of this beginning with his initial presentation and see that a lot of his releases are timed to help his fund report better financial results.

    If Ackman was serious about his accusations concerning Herbalife, he wouldn't be timing his releases but would present his findings as he discovered them. This is not about helping any of Herbalife's distributors, it's all about $$$$'s for Ackman's investors.
    Feb 28 12:40 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Throwing Money At Its Problems [View article]
    Eventually Ackman will learn that you can only cry wolf for so long and with no reaction from the more intelligent HLF shareholders, he will have to face the agonizing fact of how he will be able to get out of his short position without breaking the bank.

    I noticed that Ackman is trying his usual ploy- after HLF good news - shorting more shares of HLF stock in order to control the upward momentum of HLF's share price. Here is the latest HLF short interest chart which shows that someone (my guess Ackman) has added approximately 2.7 MILLION shorts to their position-

    Settlement Date;Short Interest;Avg Daily Share Volume;Days To Cover

    2/14/2014 22,638,526 3,577,909 6.327306
    1/31/2014 20,511,785 6,264,290 3.274399
    1/15/2014 20,223,267 3,128,333 6.464551
    12/31/2013 19,942,956 3,308,950 6.026974

    This strategy will backfire too and will eventually lead to even more problems for Ackman and his investors. (NOTE: Actually it will be his investors who suffer from Ackman's obsession with Herbalife. Talk about someone using their emotions for their trading strategy.)
    Feb 28 11:50 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman Could Win, So Why Risk Money On Herbalife? [View article]
    This could be the year the Cubs win the World Series too!
    Feb 14 08:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Debt Deal Leaves Ackman Licking His Chops [View article]
    I think Herbalife's financing plan has Icahn's expertise written all over it. Icahn has already stated he is in this for the long run. Stiritz is taking steps to buy more of the company and to become more involved. If Ackman can't come up with anything better than he has, this game is in its final stage and will eventually punish Ackman's investors!
    Feb 4 10:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Probing Herbalife, Eh? [View article]
    12:50p Herbalife Responds to NY Post Article Regarding Canada Probe: "The company takes it's disclosure requirements very seriously. We refer you to our public filings." (Benzinga)


    1:25p UPDATE: Herbalife Says "We are unaware of any investigation and have not been contacted. Canadian sales represent less than 1 percent of sales." (Benzinga)
    Jan 28 02:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Senator Offers Herbalife Reality Check As Ackman Reloads [View article]
    If Ackman's quarterbacking the situation- then why did Senator Markey not mention Ackman in his letter->REASON-> Markety doesn't want to be associated with Ackman & manipulating the stock market
    Jan 23 01:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Senator Offers Herbalife Reality Check As Ackman Reloads [View article]
    QUESTIONS FOR MARKEY:

    So why didn't Markey say anything about that meeting with Ackman and his staffers in his letter????

    Who provided him OR HIS STAFFERS with the questions for Herbalife in his letter???


    Comments (253)



    Per New York Times article: http://nyti.ms/1dScLFZ

    "Mr. Ackman met with members of Mr. Markey’s staff last fall, but he has not met with the senator, a spokeswoman for Mr. Markey said."

    MY COMMENT: Last Fall - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm -> wasn't that just a few months ago???? What a coincidence!!!!! Staffers meet with Ackman-> Staffers ask Ackman type questions of Herbalife-> Hmmmmmmm


    NOTE: These are detailed questions that seem to be those questions that Bill Ackman might request.

    Also in Mr. Markey's letter he references one family that lost $130,000 including their entire 401(K) Soooooooo-> Was the money lost in their 401(K) invested in Herbalife stock???

    Since Mr. Markey is asking for openness, it would be good for him to provide all of his connections, including any political contributions from Ackman too.
    Jan 23 12:31 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife -13% as U.S. senator calls for investigation [View news story]
    Per New York Times article: http://nyti.ms/1dScLFZ

    "Mr. Ackman met with members of Mr. Markey’s staff last fall, but he has not met with the senator, a spokeswoman for Mr. Markey said."

    MY COMMENT: Last Fall - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm -> wasn't that just a few months ago???? What a coincidence!!!!! Staffers meet with Ackman-> Staffers ask Ackman type questions of Herbalife-> Hmmmmmmm
    Jan 23 12:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife -13% as U.S. senator calls for investigation [View news story]
    QUESTIONS FOR MARKEY:

    So why didn't Markey say anything about that meeting with Ackman and his staffers in his letter????

    Who provided him OR HIS STAFFERS with the questions for Herbalife in his letter???

    NOTE: These are detailed questions that seem to be those questions that Bill Ackman might request.

    Also in Mr. Markey's letter he references one family that lost $130,000 including their entire 401(K) Soooooooo-> Was the money lost in their 401(K) invested in Herbalife stock???

    Since Mr. Markey is asking for openness, it would be good for him to provide all of his connections, including any political contributions from Ackman too.
    Jan 23 12:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife -13% as U.S. senator calls for investigation [View news story]
    http://1.usa.gov/1dS6WIG

    Excerpt from letter-

    Page 6 of 6 -> "Please have your staff contact Justin Slaughter or Michael Freedhoff of my staff at 202-224-2742."

    When I talked to him, he tried to not talk to me until he could get someone from their public relations department to be on the phone but when I pressed him for Bill Ackman's involvement, he volunteered the above information about Ackman meeting with some of Market's staffers. Also he volunteered that the New York Times had that information.
    Jan 23 11:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife -13% as U.S. senator calls for investigation [View news story]
    I just talked to Justin Slaughter at Edward Markey's office and he admitted to me that Bill Ackman did not meet with Mr. Markey but he did meet with some of Mr. Markey's staffers. Also he said that the New York Times is aware of this. I am not sure if they have reported that but if anyone has a link, please post it here.

    NOW WE KNOW THE REST OF THE STORY- Per my conversation with Justin, I believe Bill Ackman is behind this.
    Jan 23 11:34 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
264 Comments
720 Likes