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G. Hudson  

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  • How The Judge Will Arrive At A Remedy In SIGA V. PharmAthene [View article]
    Just as a reminder- it would seem that Judge Parsons is taking a lot of time for something that he should be able calculate with reasonable certainty as per note #99 of the Supreme Court ruling-

    "99 An expectation damages award presupposes that the plaintiff can prove damages with reasonable certainty. Callahan v. Rafail, 2001 WL 283012, at *1 (Del. Super. Mar. 16, 2001) (citation omitted) (“It is well settled law that ‘a recovery for lost profits will be allowed only if their loss is capable of being proved, with a reasonable degree of certainty. No recovery can be had for loss of profits which are determined to be uncertain, contingent, conjectural, or speculative.’”)."

    So you have to ask yourself the question-> What is taking so long for this decision of certainty OR was my Seeking Alpha article- " PharmAthene's Damage Award Will Be Limited To Reliance Damages" at the following link correct->
    Jun 25, 2014. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    It depends as to whether the losing company decides to appeal the case to the SC. If both companies accept Parsons's ruling then the case is settled.
    Also the SC has to agree to hear the appeal.
    Jun 4, 2014. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Judge Will Arrive At A Remedy In SIGA V. PharmAthene [View article]
    PharmAthene probably was like the bees in this situation. Unfortunately for PharmAthen, they, like the bees, aren't going to get paid a lot of money after the tree has bared it's fruit and is sold to the market by the farmer.
    May 30, 2014. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Judge Will Arrive At A Remedy In SIGA V. PharmAthene [View article]

    I still say Parsons is boxed into a corner and will not be able to award expectation damages. If he does, it will be overturned by the SC and will just cost both companies more legal fees over the long run. Hopefully Parsons has wised up and has figured out that reliance damages are the only damages available to PharmAthene.

    I look forward to seeing who is right. Have a great day!
    May 29, 2014. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Judge Will Arrive At A Remedy In SIGA V. PharmAthene [View article]
    Excerpt from PharmAthene's 5/23/14 Form S-3 (NOTE: Sounds like a lot of uncertainty from someone expecting an award of expectation damages!!)

    As a result of the ruling of the Delaware Supreme Court, we no longer have a financial interest in ArestvyrTM and there can be no assurance that the Delaware Court of Chancery will issue a remedy that provides us with a financial interest in that product or another remedy.

    In its May 2013 decision, the Delaware Supreme Court reversed the remedy ordered by the Delaware Court of Chancery and remanded the issue of a remedy back to the trial court for reconsideration in light of the Delaware Supreme Court’s opinion. There can be no assurance that the Delaware Court of Chancery will issue a remedy that provides us with a financial interest in ArestvyrTM and related products, that SIGA will not appeal any subsequent decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery, or that SIGA will not be successful in any subsequent appeal. Even if the Delaware Court of Chancery does provide us a remedy with a financial interest in ArestvyrTM, we may never receive any proceeds from SIGA’s future sales of that product.

    In addition to the risks that ordinarily accompany the development and commercialization of biodefense products, including with respect to government contracting activities (including protests filed by third parties), competition (which with respect to ArestvyrTM includes potential competing products being developed by Chimerix, Inc.), FDA and other regulatory approval and commercialization efforts, which are described elsewhere in our risk factors, any interest we may have in future sales of SIGA’s product ArestvyrTM and related products is subject to additional risks.

    3 In particular, SIGA’s ability to deliver product to the strategic national stockpile ("SNS") (and potential foreign government purchasers), and the timing and profitability thereof (including the timing of SIGA’s recognition of revenue related thereto), are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties (certain of which are outlined in SIGA’s filings with the SEC) as to which we have limited knowledge and no ability to control, mitigate or fully evaluate. We have no first-hand knowledge of, and SIGA has not publicly disclosed, any information related to the potential margins or profitability of ArestvyrTM and related products.

    Even if the Delaware Court of Chancery re-instates its prior remedy or another remedy granting us a financial interest in ArestvyrTM, the potential value of any damages that may be awarded to us is subject to several variables, many of which are controlled by SIGA, and uncertainties, including the timing of any final decision by the courts, which preclude the current calculation of a predictable value of the SIGA litigation.

    In its May 31, 2012 judgment, the Delaware Court of Chancery awarded us the right to receive 50% of certain profits related to the sale of ArestvyrTM and related products for a specified period of time once SIGA retained the first $40.0 million in profits. However, as noted in the prior risk factor, although the Delaware Supreme Court affirmed in May 2013 that SIGA breached contractual obligations to us, its remand of the issue of the remedy back to the Delaware Court of Chancery for reconsideration has effectively deprived us of any current financial interest on ArestvyrTM and related products. We cannot predict whether the Delaware Court of Chancery will re-instate its prior remedy or order another remedy.

    We have taken the position in documents submitted to the courts, that our damages may be as high as $1.0 billion. SIGA has taken the position, in documents that it has submitted to the courts, that it owes us no or nominal damages. In addition, SIGA has taken post-judgment positions with respect to ArestvyrTM as to timing and costs (positions we dispute), which we expect SIGA may continue to take in the future, thus reducing or deferring SIGA's revenues from ArestvyrTM and related products and, correspondingly, potentially reducing or delaying any damages that would be owed to us. We intend to continue to vigorously pursue in court our position that, as a result of our successful breach of contract case against SIGA, we deserve significant damages in our award from the Delaware Court of Chancery. We can provide no assurance that we will succeed in our litigation strategy or, as stated above, that the Delaware Court of Chancery will re-instate its prior remedy or provide any remedy at all.

    Even if we are awarded a remedy by the court, we are unable to control or predict the timing of sales of or whether or when SIGA will recognize any profits with respect to ArestvyrTM or related products. It is possible that SIGA could discontinue development, production or sales of ArestvyrTM and any related products at any time such that we would not collect any damages.

    Our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards (NOLs) may be limited.

    We have incurred substantial losses during our history. If the Delaware Court of Chancery does not provide us with a remedy in our on-going litigation with SIGA that requires SIGA to make a significant lump sum payment to us or on-going payments related to sales or profits of Arestvyr™ and related products (and any such remedy is not affirmed on appeal), we are highly unlikely to be profitable for the foreseeable future and therefore, will not generate future taxable income that we can use our NOLs to offset. As of December 31, 2013, we had federal NOLs of $144.0 million. The $144.0 million in NOLs will begin to expire in various years between 2022 and 2033, if not limited by triggering events prior to such time. Under the provisions of the Internal Revenue Code changes in our ownership, in certain circumstances, will limit the amount of NOLs that can be utilized annually in the future to offset taxable income. In particular, Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code imposes limitations on a company’s ability to use NOLs upon certain changes in such ownership. If we are limited in our ability to use our NOLs in future years in which we have taxable income, we will pay more taxes than if we were able to utilize our NOLs fully. For example, as a result of a previous change in stock ownership, the annual utilization of the NOL carryforwards generated in tax years prior to 2007 may be subject to limitation. We have not completed an analysis under Section 382 to determine what, if any, impact any prior ownership change has had on our ability to utilize our NOLs. Until such analysis is completed, we cannot be sure that the full amount of the existing NOLs will be available to us, even if we do generate taxable income before their expiration. In addition, we may experience ownership changes in the future as a result of subsequent shifts in our stock ownership that could result in further limitations being placed on our ability to utilize our NOLs. Sales of shares by us pursuant to this prospectus could in fact result in ownership changes which could have the effect of creating additional limitations on our ability to utilize our NOLs. The Board of Directors may not undertake an analysis under Section 382 to determine the impact of any such sales on our ability to utilize our NOLs at the time it authorizes such sales.

    May 25, 2014. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Judge Will Arrive At A Remedy In SIGA V. PharmAthene [View article]

    I think both stocks are valued almost as though neither company will win this battle. When we look at just the monetary value of the current BARDA contract, SIGA should end up having somewhere around $250 million dollars of cash on their balance sheet by the end of the 2nd quarter of next year. When we add up both PIP's & SIGA's current share price it is less than the value of that cash divided by the average # of shares outstanding for both companies- $250 million divided by 53 million shares = $4.72 per share versus the current share prices- PIP - $1.55 & SIGA - $2.55 for a total share price of $4.10. So if anyone owns equal number of shares of both companies, they should automatically come out ahead regardless of who wins the court battle especially since the above $4.72 doesn't put any value towards more BARDA awards or the other drugs in the two companies pipelines.

    I own shares in both companies but significantly more in SIGA since I believe they will come out on top in this battle. Judge Parsons should be embarrassed about waiting this long to come out with a ruling. If you review most cases, there usually is a ruling within 60 days and almost always 90 days. I think the reason he is taking so long is that he can hardly stand that he has to come out with a ruling that is in line with what SIGA has been saying all this time.

    As far as any BARDA re-order, I don't think SIGA will even give a hint as to the likelihood of that until after Parson's comes out with his ruling.
    May 21, 2014. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Judge Will Arrive At A Remedy In SIGA V. PharmAthene [View article]

    I will give Jeff, VinceP & CS a bottle of Dom Perignon champagne when Judge Parsons rules in favor of only awarding "reliance damages" as I have predicted in my Seeking Alpha articles-

    1st article is only available to Seeking Alpha Pro Subscribers
    May 20, 2014. 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    I do think PharmAthene will probably have major problems if they don't receive a large award from this legal battle. I still think SIGA is in the best position to win the legal battle and will only be responsible for a few hundred thousand dollars in reliance damages. However with both companies share price at their low, it becomes more obvious that anyone purchasing both company's shares will be a winner in the long run. For those willing to bet more money on the company they believe will win this battle and if that company wins this legal battle, the more likely for a much larger share gain. I still own shares of both companies but own significantly more shares of SIGA than PIP. If SIGA only has to pay a few hundred thousand dollars to PharmAthene, after the current BARDA contract is filled over the next year, they will have significantly more money on their books than the cost to buy back ALL OF THEIR SHARES at $5 or more per share.
    Apr 22, 2014. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    I am waiting just like you. I am surprised it is taking so long as Judge Parsons has seem to indicate the need to speed up the process of getting this case resolved. My guess is that he is searching for the needle in the haystack to give him a leg to stand on as to providing PharmAthene with a better award. However I don't think he has found it and isn't in any hurry to pass on the good news to SIGA. (NOTE: The last hearing for this case was on 1/15/14 so we are already at 90 days so should have results soon.)
    Apr 15, 2014. 11:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mystery Of Icahn And Herbalife's AGM Delay [View article]
    See below excerpt from my article- “Herbalife Information Disputes Pyramid Allegations”

    Here is a link to my Seeking Alpha article-

    Even though Herbalife didn't immediately have those numbers, I am very impressed with how quickly Herbalife's management acted by engaging Lieberman Worldwide Research, one of the top market research companies in the world, to conduct a survey to help develop a better understanding of Herbalife consumers in the U.S. as well as the actual percentage of sales to non-distributor customers. This decision has already paid huge dividends as documented by these excerpts from "Herbalife's CEO Discusses Q2 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript":

    Michael Johnson - Chairman and CEO: "Today, for example, we know that 20% of our U.S. volume is shipped directly from Herbalife to the end consumer who is not a distributor. And 30% to 35% of our volume in the U.S. is sold directly to consumers through nutrition clubs, so over half of our U.S. volume is going to the end consumer through these two business methods. And this doesn't include volume from our traditional person-to-person selling method."

    Michael Johnson - Chairman and CEO: "Over the past several years, a growing portion of our business has been driven by our distributors around the world moving to daily consumption business methods with long-term sustainable customers. We believe that daily consumption business methods now generate approximately 40% of our volume. With more than 36,000 non-residential nutrition clubs operated by our distributors around the world, Herbalife products and distributors are more accessible to more customers than ever before."

    Excerpt from Analyst John San Marco - Janney: "That's helpful. And then in terms of the U.S., what - I want to make sure I got my numbers right. I think Michael said that 30% to 35% of volume in the U.S. is daily consumption and then I think you stuck to the number that was about 40% of global volume is from daily consumption. Why do you think it is that the U.S. under-indexes?"

    Excerpt from Des Walsh, President of Herbalife: "So the answer is, John, because the clubs initially were adopted by our Latino group in the United States, and it was based on the success of the Latino group that then they were adopted within the general market. But that was probably about two years later, and that's why you're seeing that, by comparison, the percentage involved is lower today, but as far as future potential, we're very bullish upon the growth now that's happening in the general market."

    In addition to these direct sales to the end consumer, I believe that Herbalife has misclassified sales made to distributors that are strictly for self consumption and who don't have any down line. These distributors need to be reclassified as preferred customers. If they decide that they like Herbalife products enough to sell them and/or to recruit other distributors, they can easily become distributors by signing up online to become part of the distributor network. I personally have sent some suggestions to Herbalife on how to make this change, and I am confident that Herbalife will be able to make those changes soon.

    My conclusion is that Herbalife is not currently a pyramid or will ever be considered a pyramid here in the U.S. since per my best conservative guess, at least 60% to 75% of U.S. sales is to non-distributor customers. [(30% TO 35% "& growing" are direct sells to customers at clubs) + (20% of U.S. volume is shipped directly to non-distributor customers) + (traditional person-to-person sales to non-distributor customers) + (misclassified sales)]
    Mar 14, 2014. 12:34 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Set To Soar [View article]
    "However, in our view, the capital structure is unsustainable, but the company does not have any meaningful maturities over the next 12 months."

    Can you explain the comment- "the capital structure is unsustainable"
    Mar 4, 2014. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    I am not aware of anything that would discredit this article so my answer is yes.
    Mar 2, 2014. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Throwing Money At Its Problems [View article]
    WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED TO EXPECT FROM ACKMAN- As each month comes to an end, Ackman has consistently released some type of information to try to depress Herbalife's share price so that he doesn't have to report as big of a loss on his Herbalife short. Anyone can go back thru the history of this beginning with his initial presentation and see that a lot of his releases are timed to help his fund report better financial results.

    If Ackman was serious about his accusations concerning Herbalife, he wouldn't be timing his releases but would present his findings as he discovered them. This is not about helping any of Herbalife's distributors, it's all about $$$$'s for Ackman's investors.
    Feb 28, 2014. 12:40 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Throwing Money At Its Problems [View article]
    Eventually Ackman will learn that you can only cry wolf for so long and with no reaction from the more intelligent HLF shareholders, he will have to face the agonizing fact of how he will be able to get out of his short position without breaking the bank.

    I noticed that Ackman is trying his usual ploy- after HLF good news - shorting more shares of HLF stock in order to control the upward momentum of HLF's share price. Here is the latest HLF short interest chart which shows that someone (my guess Ackman) has added approximately 2.7 MILLION shorts to their position-

    Settlement Date;Short Interest;Avg Daily Share Volume;Days To Cover

    2/14/2014 22,638,526 3,577,909 6.327306
    1/31/2014 20,511,785 6,264,290 3.274399
    1/15/2014 20,223,267 3,128,333 6.464551
    12/31/2013 19,942,956 3,308,950 6.026974

    This strategy will backfire too and will eventually lead to even more problems for Ackman and his investors. (NOTE: Actually it will be his investors who suffer from Ackman's obsession with Herbalife. Talk about someone using their emotions for their trading strategy.)
    Feb 28, 2014. 11:50 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman Could Win, So Why Risk Money On Herbalife? [View article]
    This could be the year the Cubs win the World Series too!
    Feb 14, 2014. 08:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment