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G. Hudson

 
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  • 20 Common Sense Holiday Reforms For Herbalife [View article]
    MSNBC -> updated audit complete-> NO MATERIAL CHANGES!!!

    MATT-> You can use your same heading as to why the Belgium ruling didn't matter here- Can't wait for your next article!!!
    Dec 16, 2013. 03:27 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Folly With Herbalife: 7 Assumptions That Led Him Astray [View article]
    Isn't Amway still in business and it's been at least operating as an MLM for over 50 years plus it's still growing-> please explain the implode on itself thesis and how you arrive at that?????
    Dec 15, 2013. 02:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Folly With Herbalife: 7 Assumptions That Led Him Astray [View article]
    Jonathan:

    No doubt-> I agree that most people that try to build any MLM business to a level of making a great income will not succeed. It's a tough business and part of the irony is-

    1- the difficulty in building an organization mainly comes from people like you who are negative about MLM's and help eliminate a lot of people even putting forth a good effort to try -> (not unusual at all for someone to sign up as a distributor then go tell one of his friends or family members who is very negative on MLMs and for them to quit almost immediately) = most people aren't cut out to overcome the amount of negativity they will face AND

    2) #1 is actually the reason someone can still today build a successful organization today after a MLM has been around for 10-20-30+ years (If there was no negativity, then every body would join become successful & maximum market penetration would have already occurred.) FACT: There are new people entering these MLM's (like Herbalife) even today and building great organizations which make them a great income -> SO IT STILL CAN BE DONE

    Our capitalistic society is based upon not guaranteeing success but that someone who can come up with a way of succeeding -> CAN. There are many different ways of doing it-> from someone who saves like a miser to achieve a fortune -> to the person who is broke but buys a lottery ticket (run by our governments & with ridiculous odds) and wins a huge sum. The point is that our government, unless it's something like a Ponzi scheme or an actual illegal pyramid (HLF runs a legal MLM under the current law, in my opinion), doesn't shut down businesses because they are difficult to succeed in.

    EXAMPLE: Did you know that only 3 out of 5000 patented products by individual inventors becomes a successful product and that a very small fraction (less than 1%) of those patent holders actually make in gross revenues as much money as it cost them to get the patent. -> DO YOU THINK we should shut down the US Patent office & put all those attorneys out of business -> I DON"T because I am one of those 3 who invented & patented a successful product. (You can check out the product I invented on my website- http://bit.ly/18x8ZuI)

    NOTE: If any business should be shut down in this area (in my opinion) it is the one I have recently seen advertising all the time on CNBC -> INVENT HELP -> I read an article that claimed only 1 in 4600 people who used their services made as much money as their services cost (DOESN'T SURPRISE ME) & yet our government doesn't shut them down

    MLM's give a person the opportunity, no matter how difficult, to start a business for almost nothing (under $100) and to try to build a business to the level of income they desire -> sure most people won't succeed - even in a regular sales position it's known that usually 80% of sales are done by 20% of the people AND in an MLM is much tougher BUT PEOPLE DO SUCCEED

    There are plenty of business that our government should shut down but probably won't -

    1) How many people have been killed by cigarettes

    2) Alcohol has caused more damage to more peoples lives than any drug out there but don't expect the government to step in (they actually tried at one point but it didn't work)

    3) gambling is a problem that is very destructive but then even our government has gotten in to that business - what's the logic of that?

    Those are just a few that come to mind but I am sure there are many more but once again -> anyone waiting for the government to shut a business down that has been around for 30+ years- is probably dreaming especially when 80% of its business is done outside our country

    As far as the Herbalife opportunity- no doubt a very difficult business to build a large income -> BUT IT STILL CAN BE DONE TODAY-> they are at least selling a product which promotes weight loss & becoming healthy (NOT LIKE OUR FAST FOOD companies that are selling food that causes diabetes and other health problems)

    IF IT WEREN'T FOR SHORTS HAVING A FINANCIAL INTEREST IN TRYING TO MAKE THE HLF STOCK PRICE GO DOWN (to zero as HACKMAN states)-> we wouldn't even be having this discussion -> There are many other pressing matters that are causing a lot more problems for people and this country than a MLM company selling weight loss products.

    Dec 14, 2013. 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Grows Like Pinocchio's Nose [View article]
    Pinochio's nose may be growing BUT THE SHORTS ARE RUNNING FOR THE HILLS-> RUN FOREST RUN

    AS OF 11/30/13 -> the shorts have only covered 15,860,816 of their shorts and they have help drive up HLF's share price $36.74 (112% share price increase since 12/31/12 of $32.94)

    AND even though they were trying to battle back with the share price up around $70 -> even though they added 874,954 shorts to their position during the time period 11/15/13 to 11/29/13 -> Herbalife's share closing price still increased -> +0.67 ($69.68 - $69.61)

    ONLY 16 million short coverings WITH STOCK ALREADY UP MORE THAN DOUBLE and there was still over 21 million shorts out there to still cover!!!!!

    Settlement Date;Short Interest;Avg Daily Share Volume;Days To Cover-> Closing Share Price

    11/29/2013; 21,437,568; 2,372,538; 9.035711-> $69.68
    11/15/2013; 20,562,614; 2,045,323; 10.053480-> $69.01
    10/31/2013; 20,772,104; 2,255,828; 9.208195-> $64.82
    10/15/2013; 20,195,382; 3,069,032; 6.580375-> $63.92
    9/30/2013; 24,481,019; 3,485,424; 7.023828-> $69.77
    9/13/2013; 28,632,598; 3,386,579; 8.454726-> $69.35
    8/30/2013; 28,631,648; 2,111,9371; 3.557056-> $61.01
    8/15/2013; 29,395,970; 3,171,918; 9.267569-> $65.23
    7/31/2013; 30,951,936; 6,415,443; 4.824598-> $65.50
    7/15/2013; 30,212,226; 2,075,789; 14.554575-> $52.30
    6/28/2013; 31,972,379; 2,357,887; 13.559759-> $45.14
    6/14/2013; 30,973,168; 1,813,822; 17.076189-> $48.33
    5/31/2013; 30,996,284; 3,189,612; 9.717885-> $46.67
    5/15/2013; 33,058,561; 2,241,506; 14.748371-> $44.78
    4/30/2013; 33,387,875; 1,842,964; 18.116401-> $39.71
    4/15/2013; 32,739,999; 3,290,011; 9.951334-> $35.73
    3/28/2013; 31,538,297; 1,864,621; 16.914052-> $37.45
    3/15/2013; 32,409,584; 3,544,577; 9.143428-> $38.99
    2/28/2013; 32,426,582; 6,198,420; 5.231427-> $40.29
    2/15/2013; 33,598,320; 9,094,847; 3.694215-> $38.74
    1/31/2013; 34,185,820; 10,198,770; 3.351955-> $36.32
    1/15/2013; 35,829,306; 17,666,463; 2.028097-> $46.19
    12/31/2012; 37,298,384; 18,070,594; 2.064038-> $32.94

    Read more: http://bit.ly/18m6Zun
    Dec 13, 2013. 08:44 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Folly With Herbalife: 7 Assumptions That Led Him Astray [View article]
    tsalvatore's comment:

    "And I told him he could make a frozen berry or banana smoothie at home for $1 a day with GNC protein powder (I told him I'd give him a jumbo container to try for a while)."

    If it was easy for people to do a lot of things, especially losing weight, at home by themselves then everyone would be slim as well as have a lot of other problems solved at home. However, as Weight Watchers operates by having group meetings like Herbalife's nutrition clubs, it is much easier to be part of a group when trying to lose weight. The cost of the product is only part of the value AND since Herbalife's distributors run independent businesses, I am sure not all of them are as good as some of them.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Folly With Herbalife: 7 Assumptions That Led Him Astray [View article]
    If anyone is wondering how much worse this can get for the shorts and why they are crying like babies on this board. Look at the chart I put together below and realize -> AS OF 11/30/13 -> the shorts have only covered 15,860,816 of their shorts and they have help drive up HLF's share price $36.74 (112% share price increase since 12/31/12 of $32.94

    AND even though they were trying to battle back with the share price up around $70 -> even though they added 874,954 shorts to their position during the time period 11/15/13 to 11/29/13 -> Herbalife's share closing price still increased -> +0.67 ($69.68 - $69.61)

    I would be scared to death if I hadn't covered my shorts & still had a huge position knowing that the share price increased that much from less than 16 million short coverings and there was still over 21 million shorts out there

    All I have to say to shorts is -> RUN FOREST RUN

    Settlement Date;Short Interest;Avg Daily Share Volume;Days To Cover-> Closing Share Price

    11/29/2013; 21,437,568; 2,372,538; 9.035711-> $69.68
    11/15/2013; 20,562,614; 2,045,323; 10.053480-> $69.01
    10/31/2013; 20,772,104; 2,255,828; 9.208195-> $64.82
    10/15/2013; 20,195,382; 3,069,032; 6.580375-> $63.92
    9/30/2013; 24,481,019; 3,485,424; 7.023828-> $69.77
    9/13/2013; 28,632,598; 3,386,579; 8.454726-> $69.35
    8/30/2013; 28,631,648; 2,111,9371; 3.557056-> $61.01
    8/15/2013; 29,395,970; 3,171,918; 9.267569-> $65.23
    7/31/2013; 30,951,936; 6,415,443; 4.824598-> $65.50
    7/15/2013; 30,212,226; 2,075,789; 14.554575-> $52.30
    6/28/2013; 31,972,379; 2,357,887; 13.559759-> $45.14
    6/14/2013; 30,973,168; 1,813,822; 17.076189-> $48.33
    5/31/2013; 30,996,284; 3,189,612; 9.717885-> $46.67
    5/15/2013; 33,058,561; 2,241,506; 14.748371-> $44.78
    4/30/2013; 33,387,875; 1,842,964; 18.116401-> $39.71
    4/15/2013; 32,739,999; 3,290,011; 9.951334-> $35.73
    3/28/2013; 31,538,297; 1,864,621; 16.914052-> $37.45
    3/15/2013; 32,409,584; 3,544,577; 9.143428-> $38.99
    2/28/2013; 32,426,582; 6,198,420; 5.231427-> $40.29
    2/15/2013; 33,598,320; 9,094,847; 3.694215-> $38.74
    1/31/2013; 34,185,820; 10,198,770; 3.351955-> $36.32
    1/15/2013; 35,829,306; 17,666,463; 2.028097-> $46.19
    12/31/2012; 37,298,384; 18,070,594; 2.064038-> $32.94

    Read more: http://bit.ly/18m6Zun
    Dec 11, 2013. 11:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    Response from Jeff Eisman-

    Glenn:

    I haven't read it yet. I am grading student papers. The briefs are due today, responses to the briefs are due in about ten days, and I believe that oral meeting with the VC will happen before the end of the month.

    Jeff
    Dec 11, 2013. 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Folly With Herbalife: 7 Assumptions That Led Him Astray [View article]
    We live in a country that is all about freedom of speech. If I said that I believed that you were a fraud and a con artist CB, it would be my right to express what I believed. Anyone who has a basic knowledge of legal rights knows that it is extremely difficult for a large corporation to sue an individual AND WIN when the individual is expressing their thoughts about a corporation even when there isn't any basis for those accusations.

    When Barry Minkow, a convicted felon, attacked multiple companies with false accusations, some of those companies actually ended up being countersued by Minkow. He was a crook that knew how to use our legal system to beat the system. Many of those companies, including Herbalife, made payments to settle ongoing legal battles that weren't worth the time & hassle because our legal system can actually be used to protect the rights of criminals. Here is my blog post about that situation-

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Sometimes it's better to fight these type of battles, like with Ackman, outside our court system (which sometimes has skewed rights to protect freedom of speech) even when those accusations are false.
    Dec 10, 2013. 11:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    Spectro,

    Thanks for the great post. It all sounds very logical to me. I agree with you as to the court case but I have been around long enough to see judges like Parsons get by with a lot. I personally had a court case which I was helping my son with that the judge just threw out the signed lease when we exposed the problem with the landlord's lease. I could have appealed and continued to fight but we had already moved to a distant state from where the battle was and it just wasn't worth the hassle. I guess it was a moral victory when the landlord's attorney congratulated my son on presenting a great case.

    I think this stock is being played by the shorts especially even today but I think they are going to be in for a surprise when the dust settles. The shorts have been consistently covering their shares over the last 8 months but still are short almost 41 days of average daily volume-

    Settlement Date;Short Interest;Avg Daily Share Volume; Days To Cover

    11/29/2013 5,673,488 139,019 40.810882
    11/15/2013 5,785,318 173,728 33.301011
    10/31/2013 5,971,174 148,101 40.318256
    10/15/2013 5,970,817 262,248 22.767827
    9/30/2013 6,261,398 226,447 27.650611
    9/13/2013 6,305,074 124,223 50.756092
    8/30/2013 6,389,111 115,776 55.185107
    8/15/2013 6,337,191 256,991 24.659194
    7/31/2013 6,112,682 197,808 30.902097
    7/15/2013 6,308,124 231,685 27.227158
    6/28/2013 6,427,051 304,690 21.093738
    6/14/2013 6,582,598 236,072 27.883857
    5/31/2013 6,997,681 396,116 17.665737
    5/15/2013 7,531,635 165,158 45.602605
    4/30/2013 7,463,182 186,471 40.023285
    4/15/2013 7,599,407 246,786 30.793509

    http://bit.ly/19AhKEs
    Dec 10, 2013. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Folly With Herbalife: 7 Assumptions That Led Him Astray [View article]
    Ackmanscam:

    I agree with your statement-

    "And Mr. Thompson, aside from a great, well researched and thorough seeking alpha article, glad to see that you actually used a picture of yourself, unlike other seeking alpha authors. I wonder why they a re afraid to show their faces????? "

    It has been a long while since I wrote an article about HLF though am still long and as enthusiastic of it as an investment today as I have ever been. That is my real face & here are links to articles that I wrote supporting the long position for HLF-

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    You can check out my profile- I stand behind my articles and being long Herbalife!
    Dec 10, 2013. 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Folly With Herbalife: 7 Assumptions That Led Him Astray [View article]
    I really enjoyed reading your article- FINALLY a Seeking Alpha article about HLF that isn't just filled with repetition of past postings and drivel-> everyone knows who I am talking about - but don't post it there because those posts will be taken down so others won't be able to find out the truth.

    I knew that Ackman didn't understand the cult like behavior of the sales force of a strong MLM so it really didn't surprise me when Herbalife continued to grow. (see excerpt from your article below)

    "When I first saw Ackman's presentation last year, I thought to myself, "There's no way Herbalife distributors can build with this kind of negative publicity." They surprised me and they surprised Bill Ackman. Ackman's presentation was almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the sales force was rendered inert, the stock would have tanked; thus, proving his theory that Herbalife was a volatile pyramid destined to collapse."

    I could have saved Ackman a lot of money if he would have consulted me. Unlike Ackman's staff and those people (who live in a different Universe than MLM participants) he chose to consult with, I have actually been inside a MLM and understand how they work.

    When people attack a strong MLM organization, it actually draws them together -> it's us against the outside World mentality. Here is a link to a Seeking Alpha article I wrote about my experience back in January of this year-

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Also as to how Herbalife's stock share price has reacted to this, I think one of my blog posts all the way back before Ackman (8/29/20120 actually accurately predicted the outcome of this battle

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10, 2013. 12:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Wins Prestigious Consumer Award for its Products in Ukraine [View article]
    It only hurts when it's true and not just drivel - maybe you can see if you can get Seeking Alpha to take the article down as it doesn't fall in line with your fantasy.
    Dec 10, 2013. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    Thanks, I don't really have any insight into the FDA approval process. The only thing that makes me think that SIGA believes it will be over a year or more out is that most of their "Deferred tax asset" is listed as long term ($31.6 Million). If they expected to receive FDA approval in the next 12 months, all of the "Deferred tax" would be listed in the current section of the balance sheet.
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    Just so everyone understands the impact of SIGA's deferred
    tax assets (excerpt from 10-Q)

    "In that 2013 3rd quarter 10-Q SIGA has broken out expected tax benefits from tax loss carry forwards as "Deferred tax assets". As of September 30, 2013 this future tax benefit is split between the short term ($19.4 million) and the long term ($31.6 million) asset section of the balance sheet for a total future net tax benefit of $51.0 million per this excerpt from note 10. Income Taxes"

    For an asset to be listed as current, it would mean that SIGA anticipates using that asset (current deferred tax of $19.4 million) over the next year to offset tax liability. If we assume SIGA's tax rate would be around 25% then we can calculate SIGA's net profit before taxes over the next 12 months as $77.6million ($19.4 million X (1.0/.25 tax rate)).

    This would result in SIGA reporting $58.2 million ($77.6 million - $19.4 million in used deferred tax benefit) or $1.10 of EPS ($58.2 million/53 million shares of earnings per share) -> Not bad for a stock currently trading at $3.15 per share!!
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    The last information I received was that there would be a hearing around December 18-20 but then it's up to Judge Parsons- I think my fellow Seeking Alpha author, Jeff Eisman, probably has more information about that process than I do. Hopefully he will chime in on this.
    Dec 10, 2013. 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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