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G. Hudson

 
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  • A Case For Buying Both Siga And PharmAthene [View article]
    They don't have to refund the $300 million dollars -> if SIGA gets FDA approval -> SIGA receives $100 million dollars of pure profit -> if they don't get FDA approval -> they are able to replace the units and will be entitled to the $100 million dollars for the 2 million replacement courses.
    Dec 10, 2013. 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Will Icahn Hold Herbalife? [View article]
    Just reported on my TD Ameritrade news feed-> 2:29p
    Bloomberg Reporting a Herbalife Spokesperson Has Said Carl Icahn Has No Present Intention to Sell Shares (Benzinga)
    Dec 5, 2013. 02:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Michael Johnson Routinely Violate SEC Rule 10-b-5? [View article]
    Matt-

    Thanks for your lack of insight. I am hoping HLF share price goes back down so I can sell even more puts and pocket the cash.

    I have made a lot of money investing in HLF this year. HLF investors would have made a lot of money too if they had read my Seeking Alpha articles predicting this outcome-

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    and of course there was my blog article which accurately predicted HLF's share price rise back up above $70-

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Keep on writing and holding on to those shorted HLF shares -> $100 HLF share price here we come!!!!!
    Dec 5, 2013. 10:09 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revelations From PharmAthene's Legal Brief: Implications For Investors [View article]
    Jeff,

    Net profit is very important BUT when GROSS PROFIT (Gross revenue MINUS the matching Cost of Good Sold) rises dramatically - it doesn't necessarily mean that other costs (administrative, general, overhead, etc.) will actually rise significantly at all.

    For accounting purposes, SIGA has chosen to defer recognition of revenues (AS WELL AS COGS) for shipments all ready shipped as well as paid for-

    9/30/13 Deferred Revenues- $162.1 million

    9/30/13 Deferred Costs - $21.9 million (future COGS)

    9/30/13 Deferred Gross Profits - $140.2 million

    So as of 9/30/13, SIGA has recorded as deferred (162.1 - 21.9) gross profits

    Included in the $162.1 million in deferred revenues reported were $96 million in BARDA payments per this excerpt-

    “As of September 30, 2013, the Company has delivered an aggregate of approximately 725,000 courses of Arestvyr ™ (tecovirimat), also known as ST-246®, to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile (the “Strategic Stockpile”). As a result, SIGA has met a key requirement of its procurement contract with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”) (refer to Note 2) and received payment of
    approximately $96 million in the third quarter of 2013 for the courses of product delivered as of September 30, 2013.”

    Using this information, we can derive that SIGA was paid approximately $132 per course ($96 million divided by 725,000 courses). Using a conservative 80% markup percentage this would indicate an approximate $26 per course direct cost ((1- .80) * $132). If we combine all of this information, we can compute an estimate of gross profits before any bonus award payments from the government for all of the 2 million courses to be shipped to the government over the next twelve months.

    Calculation of next 12 months profit on shipments-
    975,000 remaining courses times ($132 per course minus $26 cost per course) = $103.4 million in gross profit
    300,000 free courses times $26 = $7.8 million cost

    $140.2 million + $103.4 million - $7.8 million cost = $235.8 million in gross profits

    An additional valuable piece of information I learned from Mr. Crane, PharmAthene's attorney, at that hearing is that SIGA could potentially get an additional $100 Million dollars of pure profit if Arestvyr is approved as is by the FDA-

    "An additional $600 per course is reserved dependent upon FDA approval. If FDA approves -- it totals another hundred million, if they have to replace-- they don't have to refund the $300 million, Your Honor. They get the additional $100 million to produce the replacement drug. If they don't have to reproduce or replace the drug, the hundred million is all profit."

    $235.8 million in Gross Profits + potentially as much as an additional $100 million in Gross Profits (per above excerpt) = $335.8 million in Gross Profits TO BE RECOGNIZED BY SIGA & POTENTIALLY PHARMATHEN!!!!
    Dec 5, 2013. 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revelations From PharmAthene's Legal Brief: Implications For Investors [View article]
    Jeff,

    I haven't sold any of my SIGA shares and have actually increased, with options, my ability to profit when the award is finally announced. I believe when you look at the sum of both companies-> their combined stock valuation is actually worth less than the value of just the deferred & future profits of SIGA's current contract with BARDA. Therefore I think everyone, as I have done, should invest in both companies (NOTE: I have added to my PIP holdings though it is still significantly less than my SIGA holdings.)

    I started writing an article to support ownership of both stocks but not real happy with amount of effort for article and how editors turn down articles- I calculate potentially $335.8 million in gross profits to be recognized from the BARDA contract ALONE which when the award happens will some how be divided between PIP & SIGA

    Since each company has approximately 53 million shares outstanding -> that equals $335.8 divided by 53 = $6.34 gross profit to be recognized per share -> right now->

    PIP is trading at $2 & SIGA is trading at $3.29 for a total share price = $5.29

    So if anyone is thinking well that's future gross profit that will be taxed -> both SIGA & PIP have large loss carry forwards that could offset taxable income ESPECIALLY if it were split evenly between PIP & SIGA

    NOTE: SIGA as of 9/30/13 reported $19,420,266 in Current Deferred tax assets and $31,556,712 in Long Term Deferred tax assets

    ALSO NOTE: Because of accounting rules PIP can not record deferred tax assets because future taxable income is much more difficult to determine. However if you look at their 9/30/13 balance sheet, you can see that there is an Accumulated Deficit of $205,902,216 of which a large percentage would be able to be used as a tax loss carry forward to offset any damage award from SIGA

    ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT-> Anyone buying both SIGA & PIP shares in combination should make a nice profit whatever Judge Parsons decides in their court case
    Dec 4, 2013. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Belgium, Here Are 7 Reasons That Herbalife Fits The SEC's Definition Of Pyramid Scheme [View article]
    Another article by Quoth the Raven = ANOTHER NEW HIGH FOR HLF ->$76.76

    Kind of appropriate don't think - wasn't there a country established back in 1776 which proclaimed freedom for individual rights
    Dec 3, 2013. 03:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anatomy Of A Bi-Polar Herbalife Filing [View article]
    SHORTS -> OUCH that's going to leave a mark. HLF at an ALL TIME HIGH $75.75 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Dec 3, 2013. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anatomy Of A Bi-Polar Herbalife Filing [View article]
    Herbalife Statement Regarding Belgian Appeal Court Ruling
    12:32p ET December 3, 2013 (Business Wire)

    http://yhoo.it/1cjF8Kt

    Global nutrition company Herbalife (NYSE: HLF), welcomes the judgment by a Belgian Appeal Court that states the company's sales model is in full compliance with Belgian law. This judgment overturns a previous ruling by the lower court, in response to claims brought by Belgian consumer organization Test-Aankoop, that Herbalife was operating a pyramid scheme.

    Herbalife always believed that the first judgment contained factual errors and was based on misinterpretations of its direct-selling sales method, and was confident that the original judgment would be overturned on appeal.

    Herbalife continues to focus on supporting its independent distributors and their customers in Belgium, and the company remains committed to an open and transparent relationship with those distributors and customers, as well as regulatory authorities and all other stakeholders
    Dec 3, 2013. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anatomy Of A Bi-Polar Herbalife Filing [View article]
    Here is a link to short interest for HLF = a nice security blanket for longs!!!

    http://bit.ly/QovqZt
    Dec 3, 2013. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anatomy Of A Bi-Polar Herbalife Filing [View article]
    Hope you are making a lot of money on your Seeking Alpha articles because it looks like they have no effect if not a positive effect upward on the stock. Once again reality about the stock as well as Herbalife's business model not in the same Universe as you and your fellow Seeking Alpha short buddies.

    HLF up $1.55 on low volume -> it doesn't look good for anyone short this stock especially since there were 20,562,614 shares shorted on 11/15/13 which was equal to 10.05 days of total average daily share volume = THIS COULD GET UGLY REAL FAST FOR SHORTS -> WATCH OUT FOR A GIGANTIC SHARE PRICE JUMP WHEN HLF ANNOUNCES AUDIT FINANCIALS ->

    QUOTH THE RAVEN -> TIME TO COVER YOUR SHORT & WRITE ANOTHER ARTICLE or maybe not since it seems your articles usually precede a HLF share price increase!!!!!
    Dec 3, 2013. 10:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anatomy Of A Bi-Polar Herbalife Filing [View article]
    ATTENTION: Read both Mr. Stiritz's and Quoth the Raven's backgrounds & then decide who knows the most about what they are doing:

    William P. Stiritz resume: http://buswk.co/18cmXoI

    "Mr. William P. Stiritz, also known as Bill, serves as President of Westgate Equity Partners L.P., and Westgate Group. Mr. Stiritz has been a Partner of Westgate Group LLC since September 1998. He has been the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Agribrands International Inc., since April 1998. Mr. Stiritz has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Post Holdings Inc., since September 27, 2011. He served as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Ralston Purina Co. from January 1981 to September 1997. He serves as the Chairman of Nestle Purina PetCare Company (also known as Ralston Purina Co). He has been the Chairman of Westgate Group LLC since September 1998. He served as the Chairman of the Board of RalCorp Holdings Inc. until January 2012. Mr. Stiritz served as the Chairman Emeritus of Energizer Holdings Inc., from January 22, 2007 to May 2008. He served as the Chairman of the Board of Ralston Purina Canada Inc. from January 1982 to December 2001. He served as the Chairman of Energizer Holdings Inc. from 2000 to January 2007. He serves as a Director Emeritus of Reliance Bancshares Inc. He has been a Director of Nestle Purina PetCare Company since 1981 and Aldabra 3 Acquisition Corp. since October 24, 2007. He serves as a Director of Reinsurance Group of America Inc. He serves as a Director of Angelica Corp. and Interstate Bakeries Corp. He serves as a Director of Agribrands International Inc. He served as a Director of May Department Stores Co. since 1983. He served as a Director of RalCorp Holdings Inc. from January 1994 to January 2012. Mr. Stiritz served as a Director of American Freightways Corp. He served as a Director of Macy's, Inc. (formerly Federated Department Stores Inc.) since October 27, 2005. He served as a Director of Reliance Bancshares Inc. from April 4, 2007 to August 21, 2009. He served as Director of Vail Resorts Inc. since February 1997 until December 4, 2009. He served as a Director of Energizer Holdings Inc. from 2000 to May 2008. He served as a Director of Ralston Purina Canada Inc. from 1982 to 1997. Mr. Stiritz served as a Director of Boatmen's Bancshares, Inc. since 1982. He served as a Director of Ball Corporation from 1983 to April 27, 2005. He joined Eveready Battery Company Inc., in 2000, at the time of Energizer Holdings Inc.'s spin-off from Ralston Purina Company. Mr. Stiritz received a BS from Northwestern University and an MA from St. Louis University."

    Quoth the Raven resume: http://bit.ly/18cmXoN

    "Quoth the Raven has been a part time investor for the last ten years, specializing in technology and emerging markets. QTR loves playing option spreads on volatile stocks that are leading up to a binary news event. QTR splits his time between homes in Scottsdale and Indianapolis, with his wife and family.

    Disclosure: I am not a stockbroker or financial adviser. I am a casual investor making casual observations for the purpose of discussion and open communication and analysis of companies and stocks. All articles are my opinion only and are not suggestions to buy or sell any equity, bond, option or other financial instrument. There are tons of unqualified people out there offering up financial advice and its your responsibility to sort through the BS. You don't hit the button to fill my orders and I don't hit yours, so no whining or praising over stocks covered by me."
    Dec 2, 2013. 06:42 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revelations From PharmAthene's Legal Brief: Implications For Investors [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1aqoHrc

    PharmAthene Announces Termination Of Merger Agreement With Theraclone Sciences

    "ANNAPOLIS, Md., Dec. 2, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- PharmAthene, Inc. (NYSE MKT: PIP) announced today that it has terminated its definitive merger agreement with Theraclone Sciences, Inc. with consent from Theraclone. The agreement provided for the merger of a wholly-owned subsidiary of PharmAthene (PIP) into Theraclone in an all-stock, merger-of-equals transaction. Accordingly, PharmAthene has cancelled the Special Meeting of Stockholders scheduled for December 3, 2013 and will pay Theraclone a ******$1 million termination fee******."

    MY THOUGHTS: What a concept-> the attorneys in a merger agreement actually define the amount of damages awarded to the non-terminating party and don't try to rely on Judge Parsons & the court system. That is why I say both sides made mistakes in PharmAthene's & SIGA's merger so why is everyone thinking there is going to be such a large award that will be given to PharmAthene?????
    Dec 2, 2013. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Could Damn Well Be The Next MBIA [View article]
    And we all need to start planning for when the Martians land in Time Square and declare that they are masters of the Universe too.
    Nov 28, 2013. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman would replace short, puts with CDS if Herbalife taken private [View news story]
    HACKMAN is violating the rule of never becoming to emotionally attached to your investments. If I thought shorting HLF was a good investment, I would shift on a dime. Unfortunately Ackman is trapped within his emotional war. He is playing the game with other peoples money. It will be interesting to see if his investors feel the same way & stick with him.
    Nov 22, 2013. 01:23 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife LBO Reality Check [View article]
    WRONG AGAIN!!!
    Nov 22, 2013. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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