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G. Hudson

 
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  • Bill Ackman Will Swiftly Drop The Firm Hammer Of Justice Against Herbalife On Friday [View article]
    WRONG AGAIN!!
    Nov 22, 2013. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife LBO Reality Check [View article]
    Matt Stewart & Reality NOT IN SAME UNIVERSE!
    Nov 21, 2013. 10:58 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife extends gains on more LBO chatter [View news story]
    MY PREDICTION: If he mentions HLF at all during this week's Robin Hood investment conference -> it will be an excuse that there is not enough time to give a good presentation on HLF-> he may try to hint that he may do a more complete presentation with new important information in the future just so he can save face and in my opinion, cover more shares of his shorts while other shorts continue to hold their positions

    NOTE: Ackman has been only allotted 20 minutes to speak on Friday & his theme is "BEST IDEA"

    Here is a link: http://bit.ly/1aTz1I9
    Nov 21, 2013. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife extends gains on more LBO chatter [View news story]
    I can't wait for Santa Claus to show up too!
    Nov 20, 2013. 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Through The Herbalife Looking Glass [View article]
    So you don't lose more money, you need to go back and read some of my old Seeking Alpha articles- http://seekingalpha.co...

    I could have saved you a lot of money and by the way- please thank Ackman for all the donations to my brokerage account
    Nov 15, 2013. 12:41 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Through The Herbalife Looking Glass [View article]
    Sorry about losing money on your short position-

    " I closed my short on Herbalife a week or so ago for funding allocation reasons, and am waiting for a point to re-enter short - which I could do as soon as Monday."

    So if you are planning to go short on Monday, why do you write a negative article today when HLF is soaring and obviously as a short it's supposedly better to short at as high of a share price as possible so you can MAKE MORE MONEY??????- makes me wonder if you might have an affiliation with some other person who is short the stock and are just trying to help them out.
    Nov 15, 2013. 12:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noose Starts To Tighten Around Herbalife's Neck [View article]
    Didn't take the time to read & double yahn
    Oct 18, 2013. 11:46 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Pershing Square Done Restructuring? [View article]
    The puts had to be bought to so that other shorts didn't react to finding out that he had only covered 40% of his short -> just imagine what would have happened if he hadn't tried to give everybody the impression he was still as enthusiastic about the short (if he didn't buy those puts) -> the stock would have taken off like a rocket.

    So he was able to spin his short covering by telling everyone he bought enough puts to make a similar profit - "assuming HLF fails" (which I take means the stock goes to ZERO as he stated before). However anyone who has been selling puts below the current stock share price LIKE I HAVE knows how expensive puts "ANY WHERE NEAR THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE" are even when its only for a week out -> I highly doubt that Ackman was even stupid enough to purchase puts any where near the current share price and especially out for over a year. DO YOU REALIZE HOW EXPENSIVE THAT WOULD BE - look at the put option quotes (see below).

    HLF Jan 17 2015 469 Days to Expiration

    Bid Ask Last High Low Change Vol Op Int

    15.0 Put 0.70 1.50 1.00 1.13 1.00 0.20 234 1,075
    17.5 Put 0.95 1.63 0.78 -- -- 0.00 0 123
    20.0 Put 1.50 2.10 1.91 1.92 1.80 0.62 235 264
    22.5 Put 1.65 2.47 2.10 2.28 2.10 -0.12 11 53
    25.0 Put 2.50 2.99 2.57 2.84 2.57 -0.06 60 3,040
    27.5 Put 2.62 3.55 2.95 -- -- 0.00 0 142
    30.0 Put 3.20 4.10 3.80 4.15 3.59 -0.11 25 1,433
    32.5 Put 3.95 4.85 4.90 -- -- 0.00 0 209
    35.0 Put 5.00 5.65 5.65 5.70 5.60 -0.05 139 4,046
    37.5 Put 5.70 6.55 6.50 6.50 6.50 0.30 21 105
    40.0 Put 6.55 7.45 7.35 7.35 7.15 0.03 7 746
    42.5 Put 7.55 8.40 8.10 8.45 8.05 -0.28 822 146
    45.0 Put 8.55 9.60 9.15 9.50 8.15 -0.37 2,815 1,674
    47.5 Put 9.40 10.65 10.20 10.20 10.20 -0.46 10 32
    50.0 Put 10.50 11.85 11.40 11.55 11.40 -0.10 7 791
    52.5 Put 11.70 12.95 13.13 13.13 13.13 -0.17 1 471
    55.0 Put 13.05 14.25 14.64 -- -- 0.00 0 653
    57.5 Put 14.50 15.60 14.25 -- -- 0.00 0 35
    60.0 Put 15.90 17.00 16.40 16.95 16.40 -0.80 2,013 241
    62.5 Put 17.30 18.50 17.60 17.60 17.60 -1.05 3 651
    65.0 Put 18.75 20.15 18.50 18.50 18.50 -1.62 25 61
    67.5 Put 20.80 21.40 20.70 21.50 20.50 -0.89 22 936

    So that he didn't get in trouble with the SEC- I believe he definitely bought puts but I would bet that they were WAY OUT OF THE MONEY and only for a long enough time (a few months) for him to basically get out of his trade. I'll make a bold prediction and bet that he will be out of the trade by the time he reports the 4th quarter 2013 numbers for his funds.

    Also I will bet that he was behind a lot of the trading volume yesterday (Thursday) trying to make it appear that investors still believed in his short position by driving the share price down.
    Oct 5, 2013. 12:07 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Pershing Square Done Restructuring? [View article]
    If Ackman is thinking that audited financial statements with a clean bill of health aren't coming, why cover some of his shorts and replace them with long term puts NOW?

    ANSWER: Ackman knows a clean bill of health from audited statements is coming. He doesn't want his fellow shorts to start covering and driving up the price so he comes up with the story about buying puts- "make a similar amount of profit as if [it] had maintained the entire initial short position" assuming HLF fails "within a reasonable amount of time."

    So lets analyze this statement- if he really thinks the CPA firm won't give a HLF clean bill of health - share price drop would be immediate so no need for longer term puts -> Sooooo he would have bought short term cheaper puts and make the most profit -

    SO WHAT WAS THE REAL REASON FOR THE PUTS-

    ANSWER-> What ACKMAN DOESN'T SAY- is at what strike price those puts were purchased at -> REASON-> He bought a lot of CHEAP PUTS at a price so below the current stock share price that the likelihood of them being in the money is remote (reason for including "ASSUMING HLF fails") but he bought enough to make that comment ("similar amount of profit") so other shorts didn't realize he is in the process of covering.

    REMEMBER- He was a supporter of JC Penney until everyone found out -> behind the scenes he was working on a plan to get out AND THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW WITH HLF!!!!!
    Oct 4, 2013. 02:51 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman converts 40% of Herbalife short to long-term puts, questions buyback [View news story]
    If Ackman is thinking that audited financial statements with a clean bill of health aren't coming, why cover some of his shorts and replace them with long term puts NOW?

    ANSWER: Ackman knows a clean bill of health from audited statements is coming. He doesn't want his fellow shorts to start covering and driving up the price so he comes up with the story about buying puts- "make a similar amount of profit as if [it] had maintained the entire initial short position" assuming HLF fails "within a reasonable amount of time."

    So lets analyze this statement- if he thinks are CPA firm won't give a clean bill of health - share price drop would be immediate so no need for longer term puts -> he would have bought short term cheaper puts and make the most profit -

    SO WHAT WAS THE REAL REASON FOR THE PUTS-

    ANSWER-> What ACKMAN DOESN'T SAY- is at what strike price those puts were purchased at -> REASON-> He bought a lot of CHEAP PUTS at a price so below the current stock share price that the likelihood of them being in the money is remote (reason for including "ASSUMING HLF fails") but he bought enough to make that comment ("similar amount of profit") so other shorts didn't realize he is in the process of covering.

    REMEMBER- He was a supporter of JC Penney right up to when he made a deal to exit that trade too!
    Oct 4, 2013. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ramey predicts Herbalife rally, calls Ackman's put counterparty "lucky" [View news story]
    So if Ackman is thinking that audited financial statements with a clean bill of health aren't coming, why cover some of his shorts and replace them with long term puts NOW?

    ANSWER: Ackman knows a clean bill of health from audited statements is coming. He doesn't want his fellow shorts to start covering and driving up the price so he comes up with the story about buying puts- "make a similar amount of profit as if [it] had maintained the entire initial short position" assuming HLF fails "within a reasonable amount of time."

    So lets analyze this statement- if he thinks are CPA firm won't give clean bill of health - share price drop would be immediate so no need for longer term puts -> he would have bought short term cheaper puts and make the most profit

    What ACKMAN DOESN'T SAY- is at what strike price those puts were sold at -> REASON-> He bought a lot of CHEAP PUTS at a price so below the current stock share price that the likelihood of them being in the money is remote (reason for including "ASSUMING HLF fails") but he bought enough to make that comment ("similar amount of profit") so other shorts didn't realize he is in the process of covering.

    REMEMBER- He was a supporter of JC Penney right up to when he made a deal to exit that trade too!
    Oct 3, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Will Icahn Cash Out Sooner Than Not? [View article]
    The real question is not whether Icahn sells any of his stock but if you will ever see the light that you are wrong about Herbalife. For your sake I hope you have at least covered part of your short position.

    To be honest with you, I haven't read or don't plan to read your article as I have other more important uses for my time. Maybe you need the money from the articles to help offset your loss on your short position.

    Enough already!!!!!
    Sep 19, 2013. 04:10 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post Holdings CEO buys 5.2% stake in Herbalife [View news story]
    It is significant to note that Mr. Stiritz was still buying shares (8/26/13 was date when 5% was exceeded) when HLF was trading between $64.50 to $65.73. Below is a link to the SEC schedule 13G filing date of 8/26/13->

    http://bit.ly/1dGuH5M
    Sep 4, 2013. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post Holdings CEO buys 5.2% stake in Herbalife [View news story]
    Other than our own Seeking Alpha authors Matt Stewart & Bruce Craig-> if Ackman is so right about Herbalife-> where are all the other billionaire supporters on his side????????????????
    Sep 4, 2013. 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Herbalife: Arguments Against Ackman's Short Thesis [View article]
    How would you respond to someone asking you- Are you still beating your kid? The correct response is to ignore that person. If you answer- no -> everyone thinks at some prior time you did beat your kid.

    Ackman's accusations are so out in left field that anyone who knows how MLM's work wouldn't even have begun the attack. If Ackman's accusations were on target - wouldn't you think the regulatory agencies who have overseen these type of businesses for years would have jumped in if he was anywhere near to being correct.
    Aug 26, 2013. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
297 Comments
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